Japan’s and Euro’s Geothermal Energy Potentials Kuniko URASHIMA, Ph.D. S&T Foresight Center, Green Innovation Unit National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) Japan
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Japan’s and Euro’s Geothermal Energy Potentials
Kuniko URASHIMA, Ph.D. S&T Foresight Center, Green Innovation Unit
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT)
Japan
Contents 本日の話題
1. Current S&T Policy in Japan 科学技術政策
2. Current Situation of Energy エネルギーの現状
• Necessity of revitalizing Japan 日本の再生 • Policy and administration 政策と組織 • 4th S&T Basic Plan – action plan 2012 第4期科学技術基本計画 アクションプラン2012 • Concept of Green Innovation グリーン・イノベーション
• Comparison of National Energy Policy エネルギー政策の比較 • Comparison of CO2 emission and Cost CO2排出量とコスト比較策の比較
1
4. Conclusions and Suggestions まとめと提案
3. Current situation of Geothermal Energy 地熱エネルギーの現状
• Comparison of Geothermal energy 地熱エネルギーの比較
Necessity of revitalizing Japan 日本の再生
2 Source: Cabinet office, http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/english/about/administration.html
Policy and Administration (related Green innovation)
3
S & T Administration 4th S&T
basic Plan
Implementation of New Growth
Strategy
Innovative Energy & Environmental strategies
Action Plan
Council for New Growth strategy
Council for Energy & Environment
Source: Cabinet office, http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/english/about/administration.html
New Growth Strategy 新成長戦略
Strong Economy
Robust Public Finances
Strong Social Security System
Source : Cabinet office 4
4th S&T Basic plan - Action Plan for 2012
5
The advanced country for sustainable environment and energy that live together with nature
Green Innovation
Revival, reproduction, and improvement in safety from a disaster
The revival and reproduction from an East Japan great earthquake are accomplished, and a local resident aims at realization of the society which can live more safely.
Revival reproduction of the Tohoku district is carried out aiming at the country which realizes the better life and high quality.
Promotion of basic research, and strengthening of personnel training
A subject common to the world is conquered and the rich life of the people is realized.
Technology is cherished as culture and the training reservation of the various talented people is carried out.
Life innovation Mind and body aim at realization of healthy and vigorous society. Realization of the society where elderly people and a disabled
person can become independent
4 priority topics
4th S&T Basic Plan - Action plan for 2012 - Green Innovation
6
目指すべき社会の姿 Target of future
society
政策課題 Policy theme
重点的取組 Preponderant measure
自然と共生し 持続可能な 環境・エネルギー 先進国 The advanced country for sustainable environment and energy that live together with nature
クリーンエネルギー供給の安定確保 Stable reservation of clean energy supply
技術革新による再生可能エネルギーの飛躍的拡大 Fast expansion of the renewable energy by technical innovation
分散エネルギーシステムの拡充 Expansion of a distributed energy system
革新的なエネルギー創出・蓄積技術の研究開発 R&D of innovative energy creation / accumulation technology エネルギーマネジメントのスマート化 Smart grid and energy management
エネルギー利用の革新 exploitation of energy innovation
技術革新による消費エネルギーの飛躍的削減 Fast reduction of the consumption energies by technical innovation
社会インフラのグリーン化 Environmental friendly infrastructure
地域特性に応じた自然共生型のまちづくり Natural symbiosis type city planning according to the local characteristic
Comparison of National Energy Policy in 2007
7
Power supply, CO2 emission, self-efficiency, sustainable society …
Source : OECD
Previous Energy Plan in 2010 エネルギープラン in Japan
8
Energy Mix in 2030, - Fossil 26% - Nuclear 53%, - Renewable 21% - Energy saving 1%
? Source: Cabinet, The Energy and Environment Council, Interim Compilation of Discussion Points for the Formulation of “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment”
2012 Summer no Nuclear energy operation
2007 2030 2007 2030
Comparison of electric power generation 発電実績の比較
9
10%
78%
12%
Aug 2011 夏 Hydro 水力 Fossil火力 Nuclear原子力 Wind 風力 PV 太陽光 Geothermal地熱 Biomassバイオマス Waste 廃棄物
5%
90%
5%
Jan 2012 冬 Hydro 水力 Fossil火力 Nuclear原子力 Wind 風力 PV 太陽光 Geothermal地熱 Biomassバイオマス Waste 廃棄物
Data source: http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/info/statistics/denryoku/result-2.htm
Climate change issue, infrastructure etc…
Life Cycle of CO2 Emission CO2 排出量
375.7
476.1
695.1
863.8
10.6
13
19.5
20.2
25.4
38
97.8
122.9
42.9
78.9
0 200 400 600 800 1000
水力(中規模ダム水路式)
地熱
原子力(リサイクル)
原子力(中間貯蔵段階まで)
風力
太陽光
LNG火力(複合)
LNG火力(汽力)
石油火力
石炭火力
発電燃料(直接) その他(間接)
Coal fired power
Oil fired power
LNG fired power (steam)
LNG fired power (combined)
Solar power
Wind power
Nuclear power (up to the spent fuel storing phase)
Nuclear power (recycle)
Geothermal power
Hydropower (medium-scale
dam and conduit type)
Fuel generation (direct) Other (indirect)
Note: The LC-CO2 emissions are average LC-CO2 emissions by power source (weighted averages of LC-CO2 emissions per lifetime power generation [calculated for each technology category] by total facility capacity for each technology category), except for oil fired power. Note: Nuclear power assessments are average LC- CO2 emissions: weighted averages of BWR and PWR by each facility capacity (ABWR is excluded).
(g-CO2/kWh)
Source: Eiichi Imamura, et al. “Evaluation of Lifecycle CO2 Emissions of Power Generation Technologies: Update for State-of-the-art Plants,” CRIEPI Research Report, Y09027.
10
Comparison of Renewable Energy 欧州主要国と日本の再生可能エネルギーの導入構成比
11 http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/report/20120328/230327/?P=2
Germany Spain Denmark Japan
Biomass Waste PV Geothermal Hydro Wind
Note: Facility utilization rate (%) = annual power generation ⁄ (rated output x annual time period) x 100%
Type of power generation 発電方式
Power generation unit price (yen/kWh)
発電単価
From July 2012 2012年7月から
Facility utilization rate
(%) 設備利用率
Hydropower 水力 8.2-13.3 45
Small-Mid Hydro 中小水力 25.2-35.7
Petroleum 石油 10.0-17.3 ? 30-80
LNG 天然ガス 5.8-7.1 ? 60-80
Coal 石炭 5.0-6.5 ? 70-80
Nuclear power 原子力 4.8-6.2 ? 70-85
Solar power 太陽光 46 42 12
Wind power 風力 10-14 23.1-57.75 20
Geothermal power 地熱 7.8-18.3 27.3 70
Comparison of Cost Estimation in Japan 試算価格比較
(100 yen = 0.9Euro)
12
13
Geothermal Power Plant in the World
出典：（社）火力原子力発電技術協会 「地熱発電の現状と動向 (2004年版)」
Comparison of Geothermal resources in the world Geothermal resources and installed power generation capacity around the world (2010)
14 Source: Bertani, Geothermal power generation in the world 2005-2010 Update
Geothermal Energy in Europe by European Geothermal Energy Council
15
Electricity: installed geothermal capacity in Europe (MW)
Geothermal Energy in EU
16
Report by European Geothermal Energy Council “EGEC Deep Geothermal Market Report 2011”
17
Potential of Geothermal
Usage of Thermal Energy
Vegetable dryer
Soil heating and fish farming Fan coil Copper refining Hot spring therapy Warm water pool
Heat absorptive panel/slab
Hot water for households Concrete block storage
Wool cleaning Food processing
Oil recovery Radiator
Chemical extraction Clothes dryer
Pulp, paper manufacturing Cereal feedstuff
Gold filtration
Temperature
Waste treatment Snow-melting system Greenhouse
Stable/animal farm Heat pump
Source:AIST 18
19
Geo Heat Pump system
30℃
15℃
0℃
15℃
Ground Source Heat Pumps
20 Source: Heat Pump Barometer EUROBSERV’ER September 2011
Numbers of units and installed capacity in 2010
District Heating in Europe 地域暖房
21 Source: European Geothermal Energy Council, www.egec.org
Comparison of Renewable Energy Cost 再生可能エネルギーのコスト比較
22 http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/report/20120403/230525/
Biomass PV
Geothermal Hydro Ocean Wind
Biomass PV
Geothermal
Biomass
Elec
tricit
y Hea
t Fuel
min mid max
Non-RE
Challenging of Renewable Energy installation and its rate in the World 再生可能エネルギーの導入目標と伸び率
23 ＊Blue map target 2020は、2050年に世界のCO2排出量を50％削減すると仮定した場合の導入量。IEAが推計した。 http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/report/20120328/230327/?P=2
Tech.
Biofuel
Biomass
Hydro
PV
Wind
Saving
Geothermal
Nuclear
Solar heat
CCS
EV
Already commercialized and expanding phase Enhancing but need more effort Difficult situation and need more big effort
Tech The latest pace of expansion per/year real
Conclusions and suggestions
Strategy
Energy mix
Sustainable energy
Smart city
・・・
Climate change
Kyoto Protocol
Greenhouse gases
Tax
・・・
Economy
GDP
Employee rate
CDM
・・・
Life style
Urban / rural
area
Energy saving life
Consensus
・・・
Technologies
R&D
Materials
CCS
・・・
24
Acknowledgement
25
For more information, please visit
http://www.nistep.go.jp
Contact me
Dr. Burkhard Sanner, European Geothermal Energy Council, Brüssel Dr. Jónas Ketilsson, National Energy Authority of Iceland Dr. Agustin Escardino Malva, New and Renewable Energy Sources, EU Mr. Runólfur Maack – Senior Manager, MANNVIT
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