Jamaicas Second National Communication Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaicas Second National Communication to the UNFCC Water Resources and.

Jamaica’s Second National Communication

Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaica’s Second National Communication to the

UNFCC

Water Resources and Agriculture

Dr. Mark Futter

Initial V&A Workshop

5th November 2007

Outline

1. A short history lesson….

2. What do we want to achieve with the SNC ….?

3. How are we going to get there….?

4. How vulnerable are we now….?

5. How will we assess vulnerabilities and develop adaptation strategies under future climate…?

6. Concluding comments

A short history lesson….the INC…..

It will be a widely read document that is easily accessible to allIt will have “ownership” by a wide range of stakeholders (public, private & voluntary sectors)It will lead to positive policy changes and programmes to reduce vulnerability for all JamaicansIt will be a document that informs Jamaica’s sustainable development

What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?

“The consultant will be required to conduct integrated assessments of biophysical effects and the potential socio-economic impacts on the agricultural and water resources sectors of Jamaica. The assessments must determine the vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures that will be required to mitigate these effects”

Exposure

Adaptive

Capacity

Sensitivit

y

What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?

Questions Agricultural Sector Water Resources Sector

What is of concern? Food production & food security, incomes and export earnings

Protection of the aquatic environment and water supply to all sectors of society,

Who may be affected? Ag. Workers & rural communities, agro-business and food processing industries

Customers of NWC / NIC / private supplies, those dependent on healthy aquatic environment

How far into the future is of concern?

To 2050

What is the purpose of the assessment?

To recommend adaptation strategies at a range of scales / across sectors

What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?

Questions Agricultural Sector Water Resources Sector

What kind of output is needed?

One that raises awareness with stakeholders and leads to changes in policy and practice

What resources are available?

One person formally (+ stakeholder support)

How much time is available?

Until end of February 2008

What level of stakeholder support is sought?

Whatever is offered – but expect this to vary depending upon resources available

How are we going to get there…..?

World Development

Global GHG

Global climate models

Impacts

Vulnerability(physical)Vulnerability

(social)

Adaptive Capacity

Indicators based on: Economic resources;

technology; Information & skills, institutions, Equity

Past Present Future

Global

Local

Climate Adaptation

Policy

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

NAPA Guidance UKCIP

IPCC Seven Steps U.S. Country Studies

Program UNEP Handbook

How are we going to get there…..?

En

gag

e st

akeh

old

ers

Increase ad

aptive cap

acity

1. Scope project

2. Assess current

vulnerability3. Characterize

futureclimate-related

risks

4. Develop adaptation

strategy

5. Continue

adaptation process

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

How vulnerable are we now …?

PIOJ Agriculture Production Index 1986-2006

1986=100

How vulnerable are we now …?Banana Crop: Hurricane Ivan destroyed the entire crop, for export and domesticconsumption. 8,000 people out of work for 6-9 months until crop production resumes

Coffee Crop: Ivan led to loss of berries in 45% of coffee producing areas and destruction of 5% of coffee trees.Withdrawal of some farmers from production due to expense of insurance coupled with low world prices

How vulnerable are we now …?Sugar Cane Crop: Hurricane Ivan led to broken and uprooted canes as well as flooding in large areasImpact is to reduce sugar content , decrease sugar yield and increase processing costs

Livestock production: poultry, goats and pigs were most affected by Ivan and milk production decreased due to the death of dairy cattle

How vulnerable are we now …?

Water Management Unit

Resources Demands 2005

Surplus/ Deficit

Demand/Resources %

18-Hope River 74.5 87.6 -13.1 117.5

19-Rio Cobre 483.7 305.2 178.5 63.1

20 – Rio Minho

266.1 175.8 90.3 66.1

Annual Water Resources Balance for 2005(units 106m3/yr)

How vulnerable are we now …?

Lack of surface

reservoirstorage

Saline intrusion

into coastal aquifers

Significant losses in water

distribution systems Investmentin improved water

resources management

How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …?

Climate Scenarios

Socio-Economic (Baseline) Scenario(s)

Water Resources Development

Plan Water Balance Model

Water Balance Model WMU

Results

Sectoral Adaptation Measures

VulnerabilityReduced ?

NOYESREVIEW PROGRESS

How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …?

Type of Model Key Characteristics

Agro-climatic models and GIS

Based on simple calculations and effective for comparing across regions & crops, but only consider climate

Statistical models and yield functions

Based on empirical relationships between crop responses and climate, but do not explain causal mechanisms, nor future climate-crop relationships

Process-based models Include climate, soils and management, widely used and calibrated and can be used for adaption assessments. Require significant data input for best results

Economic models Incorporate land values, commodity prices and economic outcomes, and therefore useful to assess market based and financial adaptation measures – but are complex and require significant data input

Household and village models

Look at current coping strategies under existing conditions , but do not capture future stresses if different from current

Challenges…..

Scale and complexity of problem (dependencies)

Project resources

Project timetable

Availability of tools