Jacob d 20150708_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34

Cross- sectoral analyses for Europe

as summarized in the IPCC AR5 Europe Chapter and

under 2°C global warming IMPACT2C

Daniela Jacob

Climate Service Center 2.0

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© Climate Service Center 2.0

Climate change under the risk concept:

Opportunity space and climate-resilient pathways

IPCC AR5 WG2 TS.13

Climate-change adaptation as an interative risk management process with

multiple feedbacks

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IPCC AR5 WG2 Chapter 23, Europe

Key risks from climate change in Europe and

potential for reducing through mitigation and adaptation

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Key risks from climate change in Europe and

potential for reducing through mitigation and adaptation


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Observed climate trends and future climate projections show regionally

varying changes in temperature and rainfall in Europe [high confidence]

with projected increases in temperature throughout Europe and

increasing precipitation in Northern Europe and

decreasing precipitation in Southern Europe

Climate projections show

a marked increase

• in high temperature extremes [high confidence],

• meteorological droughts [medium confidence]

• heavy precipitation events [high confidence]

with variations across Europe and

Small or no changes in wind speed extremes [low confidence] except increases in

winter wind speed extremes over Central and Northern Europe [medium

confidence]

In agreement

with AR4

Observed and projected climate trends


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Climate change will increase the likelihood of systemic failures across

European countries caused by extreme climate events affecting multiple

sectors [medium confidence]

Extreme weather events currently have

• significant impacts in Europe in multiple economic sectors [high

confidence] as well as

• adverse social and health effects [high confidence]

There is limited evidence that resilience to heat waves and fires has improved

in Europe [medium confidence]

While some countries have improved their flood protection following major flood

events.

Impacts on multiple sectors by extreme events


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Sea level rise and increase in extreme rainfall are projected to further increase

coastal and river flood risk in Europe and, without adaptive measures, will

substantially increase flood damages [high confidence]

Adaptation can prevent most of the projected damages [high confidence –

based on medium evidence, high agreement] but there may be constraints to

building flood defences in some areas

Direct economic river flood damages have increased over recent decades [high

confidence] but this increase is due to development in flood zones and not due to

observed climate change

Some areas in Europe show changes in river flood occurrence related to

observed changes in extreme river discharge [medium confidence]

© UFZ

Coastal and river flood management


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Climate change is projected to affect the impacts of hot and cold weather

extremes on transport leading to economic damage and/or adaptation costs,

as well as some benefits (e.g. reduction of maintenance costs) during winter

[medium confidence]

Climate change is projected

• to reduce severe accidents in road transport [medium confidence] and

• adversely affect inland water transport in summer in some rivers (e.g. the

Rhine) after 2050 [medium confidence].

Damages to rail infrastructure from high temperatures may also increase [medium

confidence].

Adaptation through maintenance and operational measures can reduce adverse

impacts to some extent.

© Europäische Union, 1995-2014


Transport

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Climate warming will

• increase forest productivity in northern Europe [medium confidence]

although

Damage from pests and diseases in all sub-regions will increase due to climate

change [high confidence]

[…]Damages from storms in central Europe [low confidence] may also increase

due to climate change

Climate change is likely to cause ecological and socio-economic damages from

shifts in

• forest tree species range (from south-west to north-east) [medium confidence],

• and in pest species distributions [low confidence]

Forest management measures can enhance ecosystem resilience [medium

confidence]

Forestry

©wikipedia.de


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The capacity to adapt in Europe is high compared to other world regions,

but there are important differences in impacts and in the capacity to

respond between and within the European sub-regions.

• In Europe, adaptation policy has been developed at international (European

Union), national and local government level including the prioritization of

adaptation options.

• There is limited systematic information on current implementation or

effectiveness of adaptation measures or policies

• Some adaptation planning has been integrated into coastal and water

management, as well as disaster risk management

• There is limited evidence of adaptation planning in rural development or

land-use planning

Adaptation


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“Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming”

IMPACT2C investigates the impacts of 2°C global warming for Europe and

other vulnerable global regions - Bangladesh, Africa (Nile & Niger basins), the

Maldives

and

provides detailed ensemble based climate change scenarios, statistics and

derived indices, tailored to the needs of various sectors, for the time slice when the

global temperature is simulated to be 2°C above pre industrial levels

provides detailed analysis of risks, vulnerabilities, impacts and costs for range of

sectors using consistent RCPs/ and SSPs (Representative Concentration Pathways

/ Shared Socio-economic Pathways)

provides analysis of adaptation response strategies accounting for the regional

differences in adaptive capacity

IMPACT2C project

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IMPACT2C approach

Emission scenario A1B Emission scenario

RCP2.6

Emission scenario

RCP4.5

Global Climate Models –

CMIP3

Global Climate Models -

CMIP5

Regional Climate Models -

Ensembles

Regional Climate Models -

Cordex

Bias Correction

5 climate input data-sets 1970

- 2100

2 climate input data-sets

RCP 2.6

5 climate input

data-sets

RCP 4.5

Impact Models

Emission scenario

RCP8.5

4 climate input

data-sets

RCP 8.5

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What does +2C global mean for Europe?

Changes relative to 1971-2000 of a global +2°C

relative to pre-industrial level (RCP 4.5)

12RCM for RCP4.5 for 30-year period when global mean +2 relative to 1881-1910. Fox Maule et al. 2014

Higher warming than global average

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Impacts of +2C on floods and

hydrological droughts in Europe

In most parts of France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland,

Greece and Albania, the projected changes

under +2C are generally more extreme

In parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and

western Russia future warming will see a

reduction in both streamflow floods and droughts

Philippe Roudier et al. 2015,

submitted to Climatic Change

summary of the impacts of extreme discharge (return period is 10 years)

Green area means that QRP10 change < -5%, QRPlow10 change> +5% and

QRPlow10 duration change <-5%. Only pixels where all three change are

statistically significant are shown. QRP10 - 1 in 10 year return period flood

(i.e. the discharge that statistically can occur once every 10 years)

RCP4.5 + RCP8.5

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Impact of +2C on crop yield

• yields of summer crops would increase by more than 20% in many regions of Central,

Western and Northern Europe

• yields of winter crops would decrease by approximately 20% in Western Europe and

Balkan

• all crops would provide lower (and more vulnerable) yields in Southern Europe (high

uncertainty though)

mean 20th pctl 80th pctl

Maize (rainfed), yield change [%] RCP4.5

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Impact of +2C on potential

forest productivity

• +2°C global warming will positively

impact the tree increment potential in

many regions

• decreased potential increments in arid

regions can lead to losing forest

suitability

• adaptations in tree species through

forest management are needed, what

increases forest management costs mean impact (in %) of the +2°C global warming on

the potential tree increment simulated by G4M

RCP4.5

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Impact of +2C on electricity demand

• Heating effect dominates in most countries

(except Italy)

overall, under +2°C warming a decrease in

electricity consumption

• Decrease of relative VaR the highest in

Scandinavia and France

Sweden (up to -6.4 %-points), Norway (up to -6.3

%-points), France (up to -5.3 %-points) , Finland

(up to -4.6 %-points)

• Decrease of absolute VaR by far the highest in

France/ Increase of VaR in Italy (up to 2 %-

points) due to increase in cooling demand

the Value at Risk (VaR) resulting from adverse weather conditions, and represents – for a given level of confidence [α]

over a given period of time – the maximum expected loss RCP4.5

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Impact of +2C on winter tourism Ski season length

• Up to 5.2 million nights (424 million €) per

season additionally at risk in a +2°C world

Mainly caused by a shift in the expected value of

overnight stays rather than from changes in the

variability

• Among 4 „big players“ of European skiing

tourism:

Austria and Italy most affected

Increase in risk of losses in overnight stays the

lowest in France

• Risk of losses in overnight stays in Sweden

higher, compared to other Scandinavian

countries, even in the reference period

RCP4.5

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Impact of +2C on European coastal zones annual sea dike costs

• Greatest costs are projected in north-west

Europe (UK, France, Belgium,

Netherlands

• Greatest benefits of mitigation (in relative

terms) seen in the small countries and

economies, including Slovenia, Malta,

Cyprus

RCP2.6

RCP8.5

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Impact of +2C: cross-sector assessment hot spots: Spain & Greece

Soil moisture

Flood risks

Thermoelectric power

Hydropower Water availability

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Thank you for your attention

Contact:

Daniela Jacob

Climate Service Center 2.0

Fischertwiete 1

20095 Hamburg

[email protected]

www.climate-service-center.de

Jacob d 20150708_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34

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