Index Market View 1 Company Update 2 Around the Economy 3 Knowledge Corner 3 Mutual Fund 4 Commodity Corner 5 Forex Corner 6 Report Card 7 Positional Call Status 8 Editor & Contributor Margi Shah Special Contributors Ashesh Trivedi Aditya Nahar For suggestions, feedback and queries [email protected]Market View: Are these indicators indicating early sign economic recovery? Because of China, world economy is facing threat of slowdown. However, Analysts around the globe are convinced that India will stand out in this turmoil because of current economic indicators are positive. Indicators like -1) Fiscal deficit is under control 2) The Current Account Deficit is well within the limits and likely to be in surplus zone very soon 3) The Inflation is under control and slowly coming down 4) The collection of Indirect Taxation is showing healthy trend 5) IIP data for August is also showing healthy trend - are all under control. These data suggest that the health of economy is in good shape. The only worry for the market is continuous selling by FII on back of concern for slowing down in the Globe. FIIs have sold equities of more than ~20,000 Cr. in month of August. The uncertainty will remain till the announcement by Fed on 17 th September. Market will remain ranged bound till this event finish. Looking at the data of net buying by DIIs, DIIs are more confident about the recovery in earnings as well as the market from third quarter onwards. So we believe that patience investors can start investing in quality stocks. Technically, the market likely to remain in the range of 7655 to 8015 and will have breakout either way after two major events on 17 th and on 29 th of this month. Kamal Jhaveri MD- Jhaveri Securities - 1 - Vol.: 260 14th September,2015
Because of China, world economy is facing threat of slowdown. However, Analysts around the globe are convinced that India will stand out in this turmoil because of current economic indicators are positive.
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Are these indicators indicating early sign economic recovery?
Because of China, world economy is facing threat of slowdown. However, Analysts around theglobe are convinced that India will stand out in this turmoil because of current economicindicators are positive.
Indicators like -1) Fiscal deficit is under control 2) The Current Account Deficit is well within thelimits and likely to be in surplus zone very soon 3) The Inflation is under control and slowlycoming down 4) The collection of Indirect Taxation is showing healthy trend 5) IIP data forAugust is also showing healthy trend - are all under control. These data suggest that the healthof economy is in good shape.
The only worry for the market is continuous selling by FII on back of concern for slowing downin the Globe. FIIs have sold equities of more than ~20,000 Cr. in month of August. Theuncertainty will remain till the announcement by Fed on 17th September. Market will remainranged bound till this event finish.
Looking at the data of net buying by DIIs, DIIs are more confident about the recovery inearnings as well as the market from third quarter onwards. So we believe that patienceinvestors can start investing in quality stocks.
Technically, the market likely to remain in the range of 7655 to 8015 and will have breakouteither way after two major events on 17th and on 29th of this month.
ACIL is an integrated construction company, offering turnkey solutions in engineering and designing to public andprivate sectors. The company is primarily in the business of construction of wide range of structural building andmanufacture of Ready Mix Concrete. They are having business interests in varied segments including IT Parks,Retail, Multi Storied Housing Complexes, Industrial Complexes, Luxury Hotels, Hospitals and CommonwealthGames Village & Stadium. In the past five years, ACIL has executed more than 50 projects.
Investment Rational
Strong Order bookACIL has a robust order book built on the strengths of its strategically focused direction, expertise and strong exe-cution capabilities. The order book comprises of 65% orders from Government sector against 32% as on 31stMarch, 2014. The company is also currently L1 in projects worth Rs3.5 bn which includes projects likeIndraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT), Delhi of Rs2.6 bn Hospital building (HSCC) at Kolkata ofRs800 mn.
Tie-up with Russian companyAhluwalia contracts ltd. has entered into technology tied up with KUB STROY Russia to build structures using apatented high speed pre-cast construction technology. The company expects huge opportunity in the institutionaland affordable housing segment and expects this technology to play a key role the mass housing projects.
Increasing urbanisation trendToday, about 31% of India’s population lives in the urban areas. It is much lower than its emerging market peers-49% in china, 54% in Indonesia, 78% in Mexico, and 87% in Brazil. However, Indian economy is in quest of arapid change in the pace of urbanisation that will dominate what it has witnessed in the past decade. Indian econ-omy is slated to grow to 43% , housing a population of about 540 million. This will help the company to receivemore order inflows and thereby improving the margins of the company.
Valuation : AHLUCONT is currently trading at 17.76X FY16E EPS of `13.20 and 14.43x FY17E of `16.00, Valued the
stock at 22x FY17E with target price of ` 368.
Company Update : Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Ltd
Vol.: 26014th September,2015
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Weekly Market Recap : After suffering losses in preceding four weeks, key benchmark indices edged higher in the week ended Friday,
11 September 2015 on bargain hunting. High volatility was witnessed throughout the week. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex regained the
psychological 25,000 mark after diving below that level during the week. On the global front, China on Wednesday, 9 September 2015 said it would allocate additional funds to finance
infrastructure projects, implement tax cuts for small businesses and accelerate the use of the public-private-partnership model to stimulate economic growth.
Finally, the market stabilised in the week gone by, following calmness in peers especially in China wheremeasures were taken to curb fall. Overall there was a global consolidation ahead of Federal Reserve's two-daymeeting beginning September 17.
Market Eye Week ahead : Fed's move will be keenly watched. Majority of market experts as well as economists do not expect a rate hike
especially after (recent) lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data and diminishing China woes. However,they still expect a major indication from Fed on rate hike.
Some also believe that RBI's rate decision would largely depend on after effects of Fed policy. Domestic re-straints for RBI such as inflation and transmission of interest rates to banking sector have sort of turned favour-able for a 25bps rate cut.
KEY EVENTS/FACTORS TO WATCH
1. Mon : WPI for the month of and CPI2. Wed : Sale of INR 90 Bin. 91-bills, INR 50 Bin 364 Day bills3. Thu : Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, FOMC Rate Decision
Systematic Risk
The risk inherent to the entire market or an entire market segment. Systematic risk, also known as “un diversifiable risk,” “volatility” or“market risk,” affects the overall market, not just a particular stock or industry. This type of risk is both unpredictable and impossible tocompletely avoid. It cannot be mitigated through diversification, only through hedging or by using the right asset allocation strategy.
For example, putting some assets in bonds and other assets in stocks can mitigate systematic risk because an interest rate shift thatmakes bonds less valuable will tend to make stocks more valuable, and vice versa, thus limiting the overall change in the portfolio’s valuefrom systematic changes. Interest rate changes, inflation, recessions and wars all represent sources of systematic risk because theyaffect the entire market. Systematic risk underlies all other investment risks.
FUNDAMENTAL:Bullion for the week, gold prices dropped -2.13% the third straight weekly loss while Silver dropped -1.71 to closed below 35000 mark at 34975, asinvestors scaled back long positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting on September 16-17. Bullion slumped to thelowest level in more than four weeks on Friday, amid ongoing uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates when itmeets next week. The timing of a Fed rate hike has been a constant source of debate in the markets in recent months. Investors are mixed thisweek, there is boatload of U.S. economic reports that under normal circumstances would drive precious metal prices up or down. These include retailsales on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and Building Permits and Housing Starts on Thursday. However, investors are likely to sit on their handsthrough those numbers, instead focusing on the Thursday, September 17 FOMC statement. Investors aren’t likely to be positioned long gold posi-tions into the meeting, more than anything else. At this time, there is very low participation from the major market players. Certainly, hedge fundsare not looking to make major commitments in gold. If the Fed is looking at only labor and consumer inflation data, then it is likely to raise rates, butrecent volatility in the global equity markets, the weakening Chinese economy and the dovish outlook from the European Central Bank has createdsome major concerns for policymakers. If they feel that a rate hike at this time will add to the volatility and weaken the global economy then theywill refrain from a September rate hike. Passing on a September rate hike would push the announcement into either October or December with thelatter being more likely since the Fed has a press conference scheduled that month. If the Fed raises rates then look for the U.S. Dollar to rally. Ahigher dollar will drive down demand for precious metals. Meanwhile declining prices of gold in the global market have pushed up imports of theyellow metals in India to over 120 tonnes in August, the highest so far in the fiscal. Indian Gold imports stood at 89 tonnes in July 2015. In Augustlast year, the figure was 50 Tonnes.RECOMMENDATION : SELL GOLD @ 26250 SL 26750 TGT 25850-25500, SELL SILVER @ 35500 SL 36500 TGT 34800-34000
FUNDAMENTAL:Basemetal continue to be trending higher with Copper gained nearly 4.79% followed by Nickel gained by 3.43% to settled at 684.80 while Lead,Aluminium and Zinc gained near to 1% but keep running into overhead selling. Still outlook remain weak and berish as global economic backdropprevents market player from getting outright bullish while recent prices rally came as market had become oversold and there was potential for moreshort-covering and some restocking. Last week Copper had its longest rally since June on speculation that output cuts by miners including Glencorewill tighten supplies just as demand rebounds. Glencore this week announced the year's biggest reductions to production. Miners are trimming out-put while China, the world's largest metals consumer, approved railway projects totaling about $US11 billion that may spur new demand. Supplies ofcopper held in Chinese warehouses not monitored by exchanges dropped to the lowest in 21 months. Also support seen as a fresh batch of disap-pointing Chinese economic data reinforced views that policymakers in Beijing will have to roll out more support measures for the world's secondlargest economy. Data released Sunday showed that China's industrial production increased at an annual rate of 6.1% in August, disappointing ex-pectations for a 6.4% gain. A separate report showed that fixed asset investment also fell short of forecasts, indicating that China needs to act toprevent a further slowdown in the economy. Prices of copper sank to a six-year low on August 24 as concerns over slowing growth in China andsteep declines on Chinese stock markets dampened appetite for the metal. For this week investors can scaled back their long positions ahead of theFederal Reserve's highly anticipated policy meeting on September 16-17. The timing of a Fed rate hike has been a constant source of debate in themarkets in recent months. Investors are mixed over whether the U.S. central bank will hike rates at its meeting next Wednesday and Thursday.Some traders believe the Fed could postpone raising interest rates this month, as officials are likely to remain concerned over volatility in financialmarkets due to fears over a China-led global economic slowdown.. In the week ahead investors will be eyeing Thursday’s critical Fed policy an-nouncement. Key U.S. data on inflation and retail sales ahead of the Fed's decision will also be in focus.
FUNDAMENTAL: In Energy complex we have seen Crude oil prices falling sharply on Friday, after Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for oil pricesamid ongoing concerns over a global supply glut. For the week, MCX Crude oil lost -3.54% while NYMEX Crude dropped by -3.08%, as worries overthe health of the global economy added to the concerns that a global supply glut may stick around for longer than anticipated. While Natural gasgained to settled at 179.90 up by 0.84% as market players weighed shifting weather forecasts to assess the outlook for U.S. demand and supplylevels. Demand for natural gas is expected to be moderate next week as cooler weather moves across the eastern part of the U.S. Meanwhile,weather in the west will be warmer before cooling off as the week progresses. Summer heat has waned and cooler temperatures beckon with theapproach of autumn. Natural gas accounts for about a quarter of U.S. electricity generation. Crude oil weakness indicates that the market has lost allof the upside momentum generated two weeks ago when OPEC told traders it would listen to complaints from its members about over-production.Fanning the bearish flames last week was a report from Goldman Sachs which cut price forecasts and warned that the global supply glut may pushprices near $20 a barrel. Also pressuring prices was news that Saudi Arabia doesn’t back holding an emergency OPEC meeting aimed at stoppingcrude’s slide. Falling U.S. refinery activity added further pressure to prices, but a Baker-Hughes oil rig report showing a decline in active U.S. oil-drilling rigs helped prices pare some losses. Setting aside any worries that this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision will trigger a volatile,two-sided reaction in the oil market, the weak close on Friday suggests lower prices this week. Look for spillover selling pressure from the GoldmanSachs forecast and the late news that OPEC has nixed an emergency meeting to discuss production cuts. This news should encourage the speculativebuyers to abandon their long positions, putting the market back in the strong hands of the short-sellers. In the week ahead investors will be eyeingThursday’s critical Fed policy announcement. Key U.S. data on inflation and retail sales ahead of the Fed's decision will also be in focus.
The course of direction will be decided by what the Fed does following its mid Sept’15 FOMC meet which will be very important in determining the future course of liquidity flows into EMs and the trajectory of US dollar. Break and close below 65.90 can reverse the trend in short term.
The Indian Rupee almost remained flat duringprevious week as the US currency was also stable.The domestic currency opened higher at Rs 66.90and made high of 67.14 against the US Dollar butthen appreciated a little due to some intervention byRBI and closed at 66.75 levels.
Dollar is in strong uptrend but volumeunsatisfactory. The open interest is not increasingwith trend. The USDINR is now trading in oversoldlevel and may bounce back.
Oversold markets gave a bounce back last week and the short term uptrend may continue in near term. Nifty sustainingabove 7830 can lead to further upside and levels of 7900 and 7950 can be seen. On the flip side, closing below 7800 canlead fall to 7730 and 7650.
Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee againstthe dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the markets.
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J Street Recommendations Report Card
Top Fundamental Stocks
Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP TargetAbsoluteReturn @
One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis. Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call. This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk. Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days. Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6% Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)