Index MarketView1CompanyUpdate2AroundtheEconomy3KnowledgeCorner3MutualFund4CommodityCorner5ForexCorner6ReportCard7ShortTermCallStatus8Editor&ContributorMargiShahSpecialContributorsAsheshTrivediAdityaNaharForsuggestions, feedbackandqueries[email protected]Market View: Global and loc al uncertainties are growi ng Kindly look at the headings of our notes from December onwards.If we read the headlines of last ten weeks’ discussion note, one can understand the concern we ex- pressed about the health of the world economy. We have also discussed that the uncertainties in China and European countries are also growing leading to investor’s nervousness. Investors have become directionless as more and more negative news are coming to the market from global and local level. Countries like Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Finland have made their interest rates negative. It is also heard on the streets that US may also choose the same path going forward (?). The budget preparation is also going on with some positive and negative expectations. Finance Minister has said that the budget will be a balanced one and they will not resort to populist announcements. The chances of GST rollout are increasing with some announcements for recapitalization of PSU banks. At the same time, there may be some important announcements so far as long term capital gain is concerned. Any tweak in LTG exemption may affect the sentiment of the market in short term. The current PE of Indian market is in the range of 18-19 and we still enjoy premium in the world market. If the world market does not stabilize, this PE may come down. The sell on rally market does not allow the sustainability and con- solidation. Genuine investors and buyers are postponing their buying and delivery volumes in the market are less. Considering all this point and the uncertainties in the world market, it is advisable to remain sidelined and if at all want to invest, invest in installments, as we do not know which uncertainty / bad news may hurt the sentiment. Technically any fall below 6825 will have more pain in the market. Strong resistance levels are 7240 and 7550. Kamal Jhaveri MD- Jhaveri Securities - 1 - ol.: 282 15th February,2016 05-Dec-15Ag gr ess iv e Gov ern men t Ref or ms Ar e Requ ir ed To Wit hs tan d Th e Glo bal Head- winds12-Dec-15The Most Impor tant Week For The Global Market19-Dec-15The Fed Rate Hike Is Digest ed By Th e Market - What Next???25-Dec-15A Hi st or ic Year 2015 Was !! 02-Jan-162016 – A Challengin g Year For Glob al Market09-Jan-16Global Uncertainties A re Growing 16-Jan-16Global Melt Down 23-Jan-16Season For New Stimulus???30-Jan-16Run Up To Budg et 2016 Created The Platform For Bou nce Back06-Feb-16The Concern For Slowing World Economy
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Kindly look at the headings of our notes from December onwards.
If we read the headlines of last ten weeks’ discussion note, one can understand the concern
pressed about the health of the world economy. We have also discussed that the uncertainties i
and European countries are also growing leading to investor’s nervousness. Investors have
directionless as more and more negative news are coming to the market from global and loca
Countries like Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and Finland have made their interest rates negati
also heard on the streets that US may also choose the same path going forward (?). Thepreparation is also going on with some positive and negative expectations. Finance Minister h
that the budget will be a balanced one and they will not resort to populist announcements. The c
of GST rollout are increasing with some announcements for recapitalization of PSU banks. At th
time, there may be some important announcements so far as long term capital gain is concern
tweak in LTG exemption may affect the sentiment of the market in short term. The current PE o
market is in the range of 18-19 and we still enjoy premium in the world market. If the world mark
not stabilize, this PE may come down. The sell on rally market does not allow the sustainability a
solidation. Genuine investors and buyers are postponing their buying and delivery volumes in the
are less. Considering all this point and the uncertainties in the world market, it is advisable to
sidelined and if at all want to invest, invest in installments, as we do not know which uncertain
news may hurt the sentiment. Technically any fall below 6825 will have more pain in the marketresistance levels are 7240 and 7550.
Kamal Jhaveri
MD- Jhaveri Securities
1 -
282February,2016
05-Dec-15 Aggressive Government Reforms Are Required To Withstand The Global winds
12-Dec-15 The Most Impor tant Week For The Global Market
19-Dec-15 The Fed Rate Hike Is Digested By The Market - What Next???
25-Dec-15 A Histor ic Year 2015 Was!!
02-Jan-16 2016 – A Challenging Year For Global Market
09-Jan-16
Global Uncertainties Are Growing
16-Jan-16 Global Melt Down
23-Jan-16 Season For New Stimulus???
30-Jan-16 Run Up To Budget 2016 Created The Platform For Bounce Back
Educare is engaged in the business of providing education support and coaching services under the
me “Mahesh Tutorials”. It has its presence in 128 locations across 7 states and union territories of
estment rational
ian Coaching Sector has immense growth opportunitiesording to CRISIL estimates, the Indian coaching industry is expected to clock 17% CAGR (over FY201
m ` 40,187 cr to `75,629 cr. This growth would primarily be driven by rising disposable incomes, incr
usehold spend on education, infrastructural bottlenecks for formal education.
ographical vertical and diversification through various technology initiative
Gayatri Educational Society (Sri Gayatri). Sri Gayatri is one of the leading educational institution frmediate section (XI-XII) in the states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Sri Gayatri currently has 53 co
ead across the two states, with over 33,500 Engineering, Medical aspirants. Through this arrangement, provide to Sri Gayatri, the expertise in teacher training, study material, technology aided teaching me
in development of digital content on the lines of “Robomate”e of high margin educational Digital Content : Robomate / Advance Robomate
digital content of Robomate received good response from the students after launching of Robomate inouraged by this, MT Educare started content selling to students who are not enrolled with the comine sales through E-Commerce portal also received good response during the year. Presently, productsool, science, commerce, CA and IIT segment are being sold. During the year, content digitization for ISE, Std. XI, XII and JEE Advanced Robomate was completed. Robomate has highest margin of 32-35%.
company has developed 4 pronged growth strategy -1) Focus on national level exams; 2) geographtical expansion – expanding in North India, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana for scienc
mmerce; 3) Asset light college tie-up; and 4) Robomate – technology driven growth.
uation : MTEDUCARE is trading at 155. We recommend “Buy” with target price of 230 , valuing
FY18E EPS of 9.24.The stock currently trades at 21.48 x of FY16E, 19.53x of FY17E and 17.75x of FY18
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has eased the requirements for commercial banks to meet liquidity coverage ratios under BCommercial banks will be permitted to reckon government securities held by them up to another 3 per cent of their NDTLFALLCR (Facility to Avail Liquidity for Liquidity Coverage Ratio) within the mandatory SLR requirement as level 1 High QualityAssets for the purpose of computing their Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR).
On the macro front, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at slower pace of 7.3% in Q3 December 2015 compar.7% growth recorded in Q2 September 2015.
ndustrial production, measured in terms of index of industrial production (IIP), declined 1.3% in December.
Retail inflation, measured in terms of Consumer Price Index (or CPI) rose to a 16-month high in January, climbing to 5anuary compared with 5.61% in December. CPI stood at 5.19% in January last year.
arket Eye Week ahead :
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will be in focus as a regular fuel price review is due during the mhe month.
Data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for January 2016 is due to be released by the government on MoFebruary 2016. WPI inflation stood at minus 0.73% in December 2015, compared with a reading of negative 1.99% in N015.
On the global front, China's trade data for the month of January 2016 is scheduled on Monday, 15 February 2016. US Inroduction numbers for January 2016 are scheduled on Wednesday, 17 February 2016.
Data on US initial jobless claims for the week ending 12 February 2016 is set to be released on Thursday, 18 February 2016.
Events / Factors to Watch
Mon: WPI data for the month of January 2016, Bombay rayon, SPL Industries, VKS Projects, Vimal oils earnings
Tue : Linde India, Net 4 India earnings
Relative Strength Index - RSI'
A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine ovend oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:
RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS*). When RSI goes above 70 or below 30, it indicates that a stock is overbought or oversold and vulne trend reversal.
DAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week ended with gains amid the continued rout in global equity markets with weakness in the dollar & falliyields driving demand for the perceived safety of the precious metal. In her two-day semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before cChair Janet Yellen maintained that the central bank remains on a wait-and-see approach as it pertained to normalizing monetary policy whe time leaving the door open for further easing. When pressed on the likelihood of negative interest rates, Yellen said that the notion wasable,” suggesting that the central acknowledges the recent slump in global markets and is ready to take further accommodative measures Ironically, the remarks come less than 2-months after the Fed moved to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Further evidence lobal growth concerns were apparent this week with the Swedish Riksbank deciding to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. T
es amid continued easing measures from global central banks - offering a tailwind to gold prices as uncertainty & tightening global growthflows into the lower yielding, “safer” assets as a store of wealth. As rate expectations from the Fed are pushed out further, look for persistein the dollar & increased volatility in broader risk markets to help prop-up bullion prices. Heading into next week, traders will be closely eyewith housing starts, building permits & industrial production data on tap. Indian gold traders say they are struggling to draw buyers despiterd discounts over rallying international prices, as consumers wait to see if rates can fall further after the federal budget this month. The bu
ry expects the government to cut the record 10 percent import duty on gold in the annual budget for 2016/17 that will be presented on Febally boosting supply and driving domestic prices lower. Indian gold prices also swung into deep discounts before the last budget, when thet surprised the market with no cut in duty on the metal. Consumers in China and India tend to typically buyin jewellery form, swooping in to hunt bargains or if they are confident of a sustained rally.OMMENDATION : SELL GOLD ON JUMP @ 29600 SL 30200 TGT 29100-28700. SELL SILVER @ 38500 SL 39800 TGT 37600-36700
DAMENTAL : Base metals prices last week ended with gains as prices seen supported after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
U.S. interest rates would rise gradually, sending the dollar lower. Comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve's chairwoman, Janet Yellen, th
t markets, volatile financial markets and uncertainty over Chinese economic growth have raised risks for the U.S. economy also undermin
e. Zinc prices was the major gained ended with almost 5 percent gains amid signs of tightening supplies. Prices were remains suppor
man Sachs said that it expected the galvanising metal "to significantly outperform" other metals due to mine depletion and cutbacks. Globa
erns have been aggravated by large losses in bank shares, the potential for a financial crisis and worries about the U.S. Federal Reserve
s despite signs of economic slowdown in the United States. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stressed U.S. interest rates were not on a "
to "normal". Comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve's chairwoman, Janet Yellen, that tighter credit markets, volatile financial markets an
y over Chinese economic growth have raised risks for the U.S. economy also undermined confidence. The market to an increasing exten
her the Fed will hike rates again. Goldman Sachs has cut its 3- and 6-month nickel price forecasts to $8,500 a tonne from $10,000 and
Rupee will try to settle higher against the US Dollar on exporters greenback sales even as the central bankers apptepped in to contain excessive volatility. We expect the US dollar to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Util
backs in USD INR to sell Feb Futures contract. Resistance will be seen at 69.22 levels.
The Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar onMonday, 15 February 2016 on increased selling ofhe US currency by exporters and banks amid
higher opening in the domestic equity market.
The domestic currency opened at Rs 68.15 againsthe dollar and climbed to a high of 68.06 so far dur-ng the day. In the spot currency market, the Indianunit was last seen at 68.08.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measureshe greenback's strength against a trade-weightedbasket of six major currencies, rose 0.24% to 96.22.
The dollar regained ground on Friday after forecastbeating U.S. retail sales figures for Januaryupported the view that the Federal Reserve is likelyo stay on a tightening path as other world central
Nifty finally closed the week at 6980.95 thereby showed a net fall of 508 points on week to week basis. We had sugast week to sell on break below 7400. Sell got triggered and target of 7250 was achieved. A technical bounce bacome as markets are in oversold zone. Exit long and sell on rise to 7120-7372 with a stop loss of 7500. Expeange of 6900-6730 below to be tested.
Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic instnvestors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bn the near term.
7-
treet Recommendations Report Card
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s not important whether you are right or wrong, It’s about how much money you make when you're right and h
One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)