Its america climate panel

Climate and Transportation: Pulling Out the Stops

Deron LovaasFederal Transportation Policy DirectorNatural Resources Defense Council

ITS AmericaHouston, TexasMay 4, 2010

Slide

Moving America Beyond Oil

“ We have a serious problem. America is

addicted to oil.”

President George W. Bush, 2006 State of the Union

Slide 3

2008 EPA Emissions Inventory

Economy-wideTransportation = 27%*

TransportationPassenger Vehicles = 58%

* End use only. If production and refining of petroleum is included, then transportation share would increase to roughly 1/3rd.

Source: 2010 EPA GHG Emission Inventory

Slide 4

Travel Activity and Oil Imports

197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Vehicle Miles Traveled Oil Imports Transit Boardings

Year

Veh

icle

Mil

es T

rave

led

(m

illi

on

s)

and

Oil

Im

po

rts

(th

ou

san

d b

arre

ls)

Tra

nsi

t B

oar

din

gs

(in

mil

lio

ns)

Slide 5

Fuel Economy: Jump, then Stall

Slide

Vehicle and Fuel Improvements:Cornerstone, but Not the Building

6

325 MMT

570 MMT

750 MMT

Assumes fixed efficiency baseline.

LDV CO2 and CAFE Stds plus RFS2

Reduction Targets(from 2005 baseline)

2020 = 17%2030 = 38%2050 = 80%

Source: NRDC analysis

U.S. Transportation Sector Emissions

Slide 7

Vehicle Efficiency Options

LDV and HDV Strategy Per Vehicle GHG Reduction Potential

Advanced Conventional Gasoline 8-30%

Diesel 16%

Hybrid-Electric 26-54%

Plug-in Hybrid Electric 46-75%

Retrofits of HDVs 10-15%

Powertrain and Resistance Reduction for New HDVs 10-30%

Transit Bus Hybridization 10-50%Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide 8

Low-Carbon Fuel Strategies

StrategyGHG Reduction Effectiveness Net Included Cost per Tonne Cobenefits

Ethanol n/a n/a n/a

Biodiesel n/a n/a n/a

CNG 0.3-0.6% Net savings Positive

LPG <0.1% Not calculated Positive

Synthetics Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive

Alternative Aviation Fuels Uncertain/varies Uncertain/varies Positive

Hydrogen FC2.3-3.2% (2030);

18-22% (2050) Net savingsPositive and

Negative

BEV2.2-2.5% (2030);

26-30% (2050) Net savingsPositive and

Negative

Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide 9

System Efficiency + Reducing Carbon-Intensive Activities

• Combined 2.9-6.1% Reduction Potential from:– Highway and Truck Operations and Management– Freight Rail and Marine Operations– Air Traffic Operations– Infrastructure Construction and Maintenance

• Combined 4.9-17% (2030) and 6.4-21% (2050) Reduction Potential from:– Pricing– Transit, Nonmotorized and Intermodal Travel– Land Use and Parking– Commute Travel Reduction– Public Information Campaigns

Source: DOT Report to Congress, April 2010

Slide 10

Sea Change for CAFE, What Next?

• And now, AAM says: “The national [fuel economy and GHG] program announced today makes sense for consumers, for government policymakers and for automakers.”

Year Vote Senate Bill

1990 42-57Break Filibuster against bill to

boost CAFE by 40% by 2000

199137

SponsorsBill to boost CAFE by 2001

1994-2000

CAFEFreeze

Provision added by Congress in FY06 budget

1999 40-55Non-binding resolution to unfreeze

CAFE

2002 44-56Amendment to freeze CAFE for

pick-up trucks

2003 32-65Amendment to increase CAFE to

40 mpg by 2015

2005 28-67Amendment to increase CAFE to

40 mpg by 2015

Slide 11Source: CBO, 2007

Slide 12

VMT Growth: Already Trending Downward

Source: Pisarski and Cambridge Systematics

Slide

“The Market Wants this Stuff”

Is there adequate supply of alternative development in existing housing and new construction?

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

Nor

thea

st

Gre

atP

lain

s an

d

Mid

wes

t

Sou

th-

Cen

tral

Answering "Not enough"

Source: Jonathan Levine, Zoned Out: Regulations, Markets and Choices in Transportation and Metropolitan Land-Use, 2006.

Slide 14

Thank You!

[email protected]

202-289-2384

For more information regarding NRDC’s Energy Program

http://www.nrdc.org/energy/