Israel's perspective on Syria mid 2013

Israel on SyriaM. Thorn

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Commentary on situation•3 players on either side:•Battle between Sunni extremists vs Shiite expansion extremists

•Alawites, Hezbollah and Iran on one side•Brotherhood, Al-Nusra Front, Al Quaeida on other

•Hezbollah (supporters of Assad) vs Al Nusra is going to be one hell of a fight- there are not two peoples in the world who detest each other more

•Secular moderates- not many (don’t fight)•Free Syria Army (in which US greatly invested) had a lot of their fighting done by Islamist forces, and they are now trying to get rid of those forces

•3 main players outside of Syria: US, Russia and Israel•each of these act according to their own interests:

•US interests are extremely muddied•Russia’s are not muddied, but not friendly to the US•Israel (as they always do) breaks everything down to weaponry: who has it?

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Syrian Army EquipmentArmoured Fighting Vehicles

•Main battle tanks (7,350)•Amphibious light tank (100)•Amphibious Armoured Scout Car (1,125)•Infantry Fighting Vehicle (2,950)•Field Ambulance (100)•Armoured Recovery Vehicle (100)•Armoured Personnel Carrier (3,630)

Logistics and Utility Vehicles•8x8 Artillery Truck (200)•6x6 Off-road truck (1,330)•Artillery Truck (84)•4x4 Off road truck (400)•Military All terrain Vehicle (500)•6x6 Side Truck (100)

Towed Field Artillery•Mortar (1,210)•Howitzer (1,650)•Field Gun (1,200)

Self-propelled field artillery•Self-propelled Howitzer (780)•Mortar carrier (24)

Anti-tank•Recoilless rifle •Anti-tank missile (1,500+)

•Anti-tank Guided Weapon (18,800)Multiple Launch Rocket Systems

•MLRS (500+ [est. 1000])Tactical Ballistic Missiles

•TBM (1,600+)Towed Anti Aircraft artillery

•Anti-aircraft gun (3,500+)MANPADS

•Man Portable Air Defence Systems (4,000+)Self Propelled Air Defence

•Self propelled anti-aircraft gun (800)•Self propelled SAM system (2,350)•Self propelled air-defence system (6)•Long range SAM system (1)•Transportable SAM system (56)

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Small Arms•Pistols •Carbines•Assault rifles•Sniper rifles•Light, Medium and Heavy machine guns•Hand grenades•Mines

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Syrian Army Equipment (suspected/future use)

S 300 SAM•Already installed in Syria•Anti-aircraft•Designed to combat Patriot missiles

S 400 SAM •Far superior to Patriot Missiles•World’s most advanced Air Defence System•Threatened by Putin

24 Barrel rocket launchers•Range of 60km•Most developed artillery weapon of its kind

Skean 5 ground-to-sea missiles•Capable of sinking any target 25km of Syrian

coast

Chemical Weapons

Reported treatment for Chemical Weapons injuries (Huffington Post)

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Syrian Opposition EquipmentTanks and armoured vehicles

Towed Field artillery

Self propelled field artillery•Howitzers•Field guns

Anti-tank weapons•Recoilless rifles•Grenade launchers

Multiple Launch Rocket Systems

Anti-aircraft guns

Man Portable Air Defence Systems

Small Arms•Bolt Action rifles•Battle rifles•Assault rifles•Sniper rifles•Light, Medium and Heavy Machine Guns

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Syrian Opp. Equipment (suspected/future use)

US to arm rebels•Little detail given•(1) Reuters 22/7/2013

US ‘boots on the ground’ in neighbouring territory •Lebanon

US to enforce Lybia style no fly zone•Similar to Libya, may include widespread carpet bombing of suspected military strongholds etc.

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Lebanon•Warring, destabilised Lebanon is not in Israeli interest

•prospect of another ungoverned and unpredictable space on Israeli frontier

•Does not bode well for Hezbollah•Syria concerned with its own survival•Iran further separated from Lebanon by increasingly uncontrolled terrain

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Jordan•Israel highly interested in the preservation of pro-Western monarch King Abdullah

•guarded Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel•keeps discontent among Jordans

•majority are Palestinian refugees•Jordan’s strongest opposition is the Muslim Brotherhood (political wing= Islamic Action Front)

•Jordan has praised Israeli efforts for peace “conversations” with Palestine ahead of talks with John Kerry

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Palestine•Hamas leadership’s abandonment of Syrian patronage and shift towards Qatar, Turkey and Egypt

•Pushes Hamas in the orbit of influence of America’s allies•Theoretically: aid more open peace talks (facilitated by Sen. John Kerry) •prospect of another ungoverned and unpredictable space on Israeli frontier

•Palestinian occupation relegated to third place in the national security agenda •After Iran and Syria•International indecision pushes Palestinian agenda further back in Global Politics

Tuesday, 23 July 13

UN•UN should continue attempting to intervene

•Continue seeking peace in the region•UN should challenge deployment of hard power by Hezbollah, Iran and Russian

•UN has no role to play in the Golan Heights•Disintegration of the UN Disengagement Observer Force proved that Israel can rely on Israeli Defence Forces for its security

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Israeli public•Israeli public protected from the events in the north

•Israel not confronted with a massive refugee problem•Support for remaining in the Golan Heights

•Tactical strikes supported•From left to right, broadly supportive of what government deems necessary to stop “balance-breaking” weapons from reaching Hezbollah

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Recommendations for Action•Israeli view: not about allies and friends, but about history

•Look at region personally, politically, militarily and historically•Currently there is a war against Israel, which began before the birth of our nation: 3 streams:

1. Arab states that do not recognise the legitimacy of Israel in any form (Syria, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Gulf States, Iran, Palestinian Authority, Hamas)

2. Countries that don’t control all of their territory (Egypt- Sinai, Syrai control of Lebanon, Sudan: weapons through Sinai to the Gaza Stripi; Iraq permits weapons to go to Syria, Al-quaeda in western Iraq making contact with Syria)

3. States that sponsor terrorism (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Syria (Hezbollah), Turkey)

•It’s not who fights, its what they fight with•Israel will retain the right to deploy tactical strikes •No allies

•Sensible, wary and pragmatic approach•Broken down into micro-areas of threats (and interests) rather than comprising a comprehensive picture of the type of Syria Israel would like to see

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Anticipated Outcomes•“I have no allies.” “Who has what weapons, and what can I do about it”.•FSA may have some Israel sympathizers?•It has never been the case that an new government, having overthrown a govt, supports Israel•Israel and Russia understand each other better

•Bibi Netanyahu took Major General Aviv Kochavi (Chief of Military Intelligence)•better than US and Russia, or Israel and US•Putin also brought his Chief of Military Intelligence demonstrates that Netanyahu is playing with a totally open hand to the Russians, Russians are playing with totally open hand to Israel•Russia has sent s300s to Syria

•Israel has said that they will destroy the s300s before they are operational, which Russia probably believes•Despite not being on the same page, Russia and Israel are able to talk with each other•US & Russia= no, US and Israel= no.

•Israel always defensive (produces more kinds of offense for opposition):•2nd Intafada: Palestinians coming into Israel and blowing up buses

•Israel set up Security Fence•Naturally, rockets were then used over the walls, to places that could not otherwise have been accessed•Iron Dome

•Led to bigger and more powerful offensive rockets•Israel has a series of Red lines

•different from US red lines: Obama said US had a red line about Chemical weapons, but nothing to back it up

•The consequence for passing a red line has to be: “we will kill you”•This is the case with Israel’s red lines, and people know that•Red lines need to act as deterrence

Tuesday, 23 July 13

Sources(1) Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/23/us-usa-syria-arms-idUSBRE96L0W520130723

(2) Centre for Security Policy’s National Security Group Lunch on Capitol Hill http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3CLkeQxf20

(3)Jerusalem Post http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Israel-stays-clear-of-US-debate-on-arming-Syrian-rebels-316060

(4) SHTFplan.com via Infowars http://www.infowars.com/russiasyria-will-be-armed-with-weapons-that-have-never-been-seen-before-in-the-middle-east/

Tuesday, 23 July 13