Israel prezentare -2025

Israel in 2025Regional Scenarios and the Challenges of

Strategic Profiling

Dan Claudiu Degeratu

Center for Security Analyses and Prevention

Futures Studies/Strategic Foresight

● ForecastingLinear

● ScenariosMulti-directional

● Past to Present to Futuree.g. Simplifiedstrategic planning

● Past and Future into the Presente.g. Multi-levelstrategy

Scenario typology (Börjeson L. 2005)

Scenarios

Predictive Explorative Normative

Forecasts What- if External Strategic Preserving Transforming

What can happen? What can happen if we act in a certain way?

Global Studies, Middle East & “scenario-space” Mapping

NATO Multiple Futures StudyShell Scenarios 2025 - Middle East: Open Doors & Low Trust GlobalisationDCDC Global Strategic Trends 2040- Pivotal regions: Wider Middle EastEUISS Global Governance 2025 Scenario IVWalter J. Clemens -From AD 2000 to AD 2025: six alternative futuresUS National Intelligence Council - Global Scenarios to 2025 -Fragmented WorldThe Millenium ProjectCERI - What Might de Middle East Look by 2025M. Ayoob - The Middle East in 2025The Futurist - The Worst Case ScenarioRAND - ”The Day After...in Jerusalem”Richard L. RusselL - The Middle East’s Nuclear FutureDainel Hamilton & Kurt Volker - Transatlantic 2020: A tale of four futures.

Baseline scenarios,

The baseline scenario is usually a simple projection forward of the current situation based on the initial set of drivers and assumptions.

"History repeats itself"

Nominal Scenarios & Meta-scenariosMeta-scenario =continuum of nominal scenario and rules for generating scenarios

Middle East2025 matrix

NATO Multiple Futures Study

US National Intelligence Council

Baseline scenario

-large-scale conventional confrontation in the next 15‐20 years is unlikely

- Large parts of the region will become less volatile than today- arms race- lethal technology is expected to become more accessible.

Israel Centrality energy, cyberspace, space and maritime security

Resolution of the Syrian and Palestinian conflicts with Israel

Regional Power Grid

destabilisation and absence of governance

- potential new nuclear sates- fragile states with access to nuclear technology- Turkey islamic and nationalist model for other modernising states

Major External Stakeholders' Strategic Posture

NATO to respond to a wide variety of security challenges

Potential security guarantees from international community and/or US.

Strategic Diadic Interactions

potential interstate conflicts - competition for influence within the region, including via proxies- potential nucelar arms race

Israeli Security Strategy Milestones

- existential threat in an hostile Arab world & six wars,.-pre 1967 - pre-emptive strikes to transfer the war on enemy territory- after 1973 - Yom Kipur War - new regional balance, rebuilding IDF as credible capability, defensive posture + counter-attack, - 80s- qualitative Israel’s arms competition with her Arab opponent, a greater predilection for pre-emptive strikes was adopted,June 1981 attack on Iraqi reactorEfraim Inbar (2008): "In order to maintain the credibility of its deterrent power, Israel has to react to any infringement of the geographic and strategic status quo, as defined by Sharon."

Israeli Security Strategy Milestones-2

-1989 the end Cold War

- the Iraqi missile attacks in 1991: the Israeli Air Force (IAF) could no longer protect the rear, Israel lost its escalation dominance,

-1991 Madrid Conference - 1992 -Yitzhak Rabin: ‘We live today in a period in which the threat to the very existence of Israel has been reduced.’

Israeli Security Strategy Milestones-3- 1992 - international cooperation regimes MTCR, CWC, United Nations arms registrar, - December 1995, Peres even suggested a US–Israeli Defense Treaty

-1994 Israel-Jordan the peace treaty -1996 Israel -Turkey military agreements- a new balance of power in the Middle East, power politics despite the removal of the superpower competition in the area2000s security challenges: 1. the nuclear threat from Iran2. low-intensity conflict with Hizballah and thePalestinians

Israeli Security Strategy Milestones-4

- 2006 Lebanon War. Strategic Chief of Staff Halutz ‘The way we finish this will have ramifications for the entire Middle East’- 7 strategic errors - Efraim Inbar: lack of preparations, unrealistic goals, conduct of war and its ending.- ”The government never declared a state of emergency”-Halutz remarked that ‘short range rockets are not a decisive weapon’- strategic cumulative effect-protecting the home front was not part of the IDF’s initial strategic planning for the 2006 War and was not even mentioned in the document on strategic goals-2008 -Operation Cast Lead in Gaza

Security Management Dilemmas

-van Creveld-2006 : "As history since Hiroshima shows, the best, perhaps the only, way to curb war is to deter it with such overwhelming force as to turn it from a struggle into suicide. The best way to mitigate it is to use all possible means to bring it to a speedy end."- Dan Meridor 2011: " Despite the Israeli intuition and emotion based on a preference to be on the offensive, this response must be based on a defense approach.”- Winograd Commision - Goldstone Report- Report of the United Nations Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict- INSS- Strategic Survey for Israel 2012-2013: 9 threats, 7 opportunities

Security Management Dilemmas - 2

- ”Red lines” versus Proactive policy,- Synchronized Steps toward the Bi-national state solution versus unilateral measures for partial agreements - e.g. Jerusalem international status- Moral advantage as strategic advantage ? (Gray, C. Gray 2010)

Strategic Profile and Competitive Strategies (Porter, 1980)

Regional Interests

Survival Interests

Strategic Dominance Status quo

Israel Strategic Profile Dynamics (Wright 1987)

Very Good

NationalSecurity

Poor

Low Regional Security Level High

Pre- 2008 2009-2013? 2014 - 2025

Dan Claudiu Degeratu [email protected]

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