IRI Uganda Survey Public Presentation FINAL (1)

8/9/2019 IRI Uganda Survey Public Presentation FINAL (1)

1/68

International Republican Institute

Public Opinion Survey

of UgandansDecember 4-23, 2014


2/68

Detailed Methodology

2

• The International Republican Institute IRI! carried out a sur"ey o# $gandan citi%ens aged 1& years and older'

• The (uestionnaire )as designed by *ro#essor Robert Mattes o# the $ni"ersity o# +ape To)n, in consultation

)ith IRI, $gandas political parties and ci"il society staeholders' .ample design, inter"ie) training and

#ield)or )as carried out by /atchile +onsult, a social research #irm, in consultation )ith IRI and *ro#essor

Mattes'

• ace-to-#ace inter"ie)s )ere carried out )ith 2,402 respondents bet)een December 423, 2014'

• The margin o# error #or the entire study is plus or minus t)o percentage points'

• In .tage 1, IRI strati#ied all numerator reas $! #rom the most recent $ganda census by sub-region and

rural-urban status' IRI then randomly selected 300 $s )ith the probability proportionate to the population

si%e o# each stratum'

• In .tage 2, inter"ie)ers #ollo)ed random )al patterns )ithin the selected $ to identi#y eight households'

ithin each household .tage 3!, all members o# the household aged 1& years and older )ere listed and one

)as randomly selected to participate in the sur"ey' Inter"ie)s at each household alternated bet)een men

and )omen' 5ne respondent #rom each household )as selected by creating a numbered list o# adults in that

household and a number )as randomly dra)n'

• ll inter"ie)ers )ere conducted in the language o# the respondents choice'

• In total 3,036 houses )ere "isited to obtain 2,402 inter"ie)s' Thus, the response rate #or this sur"ey )as 76percent'

• The sur"ey )as #unded by the $nited .tates gency #or International De"elopment'

• +harts and graphs may not add to 100 percent due to rounding'

http://www.uct.ac.za/http://www.hatchileconsult.com/HachileConsult/Default.aspxhttp://www.usaid.gov/ugandahttp://www.usaid.gov/ugandahttp://www.usaid.gov/ugandahttp://www.hatchileconsult.com/HachileConsult/Default.aspxhttp://www.uct.ac.za/


3/68


+ountry /eaded in

Right Direction


4/68

.ince the last national election in 2011, )ould you say that each o# the

#ollo)ing ha"e gotten better, stayed the same or become )orse8

4

09

209

409

:09

&09

1009

:9 ;9 :9 49

4:9 439 409 379

219219 229

169

219 2;9 229319

;9 79;9 &9

29 19 :9 29

Much


5/68


6/68

hat about the o"erall direction o# the country8 Do you #eel $ganda is

going in the right direction or going in the )rong direction8

:

rong Direction

DonAt no)

Right Direction

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

0':6 39 0'26

Right Direction Dont =no) rong Direction


7/68

In your opinion, )ho do you thin is responsible #or the o"erall direction

in )hich the country is going8

7


8/68

/o) )ell or badly )ould you say the national go"ernment has been

handling

&

09109209

309409;09:09709&09609

1009

79 &9 49 49

449 379

269 2:9

2:9 279339 309

179 239 329 3;9

;9 ;9 39 ;9

Eery ell ell


9/68


handling

6

09109209

309409;09:09709&09609

1009

139 179 129 119 119

4&9 429 4;9 479339

229 209 219 249

229

1;9 219 229 1;9319

19 19 19 29 39

Dont =no) Eery


10/68


handling

10

Reducing +rime ighting +orruption in Co"At09

109

209

309

409

;09

:09

709

&09

609

1009

169

;9

439

209

219

209

1:9

469

29 ;9

Eery ell ell


11/68

ith regard to go"ernment hospitals and health clinics, please tell me

)hether you thin the #ollo)ing matters ha"e gotten better, stayed the

same or become )orse since the 2011 elections8

11

09109209309

409;09:09709&09609

1009

49 ;9 :9 49 49

419 3&9 329 319 279

2;9 249 3791&9 219

219 219 1;9

269 309

&9 &9 119 1:9 17929 49 19 29 29

Much


12/68

The @ational Resistance Mo"ement made a series o# campaign promises

be#ore the 2011 elections' Do you thin that it )as able to deli"er on

all, most, a #e) or none o# these promises8

12

DonAt =no)

@one

e)

Most

ll

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709

:9

1;9

;&9

1&9

29


13/68

hich o# the #ollo)ing statements comes closest to ho) you #eel about

the @ational Resistance Mo"ements 2011 campaign promises8

13

DonAt =no)

@e"er )as +ommitted, @o Intention to Deli"er

+ommitted to *romises, but ailed to Deli"er

+ommitted to *romises, Deli"ered on Them

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709

79

249

;79

129


14/68

@o) lets spea about the per#ormance o# "arious parts o# the

go"ernment o# $ganda' Do you appro"e or disappro"e o# the )ay the

#ollo)ing people ha"e per#ormed their Fobs o"er the past 12 months, or

ha"ent you heard enough about them to say8

14

*resident Muse"eni lected M* lected +ouncilor Mayor09

109

209

309

409

;09

:09

709

&09

609

1009

309

119 &9 &9

479

3&9 449339

129

2:92:9

209

:9

179 149

&9

49 79 &9

309

.trongly ppro"e ppro"e Disappro"e

.trongly Disappro"e Dont =no) B /a"enAt /eard


15/68

In your opinion, )hat are the most important problems #acing the

country that go"ernment should address8 5pen-nded!

1;

ar

*olitical Eiolence

+i"il ar

/ousing

Cender Issues B omens Rights

+ommunications

/IEBID.

*olitical Instability B *olitical Di"isions B thnic Tensions.er"ices 5ther!

5rphans B .treet +hildren B /omeless +hildren

>and

Discrimination B Ine(uality

>oans B +redit

Drought

Democracy B *olitical Rights

.icness B Disease

ood .hortage B amine5"erall ages, Incomes and .alaries

Transportation

+rime and .ecurity

lectricity

Ta?es

arming B griculture

/ealth

+orruption

"ailability o# /ealth +are

ducation

*o"erty B Destitution

ater .upply

In#rastructure B Roads

$nemployment

09 109 209 309 409

0'391919191919192929

29393939393949

;9:9

&9&9&9

119119

139219

249249

2;92:92:9

269


16/68

In your opinion, )hat are the most important problems #acing the

country that go"ernment should address8 5pen-nded!

1:

+rime and .ecurity

+RIM

>and

Drought

arming B griculture

CRI+$>T$R

+orruption

+5RR$*TI5@ducation

D$+TI5@

5rphans B .treet +hildren B /omeless +hildren

ood .hortage B amine


*5ERTG

Transportation


TR@.*[email protected]"ices 5ther!

lectricity

ater .upply

.REI+.

/IEBID.

.icness B Disease

/ealth


/>T/

>oans B +redit

5"erall ages, Incomes and .alaries

Ta?es

$nemployment

M+R5 +5@5MI+.

09 109 209 309 409

&93939

119219

24929

;9 2;9

&92:9

29&9

2:919

49139

249

39:9

119269


17/68

Thining o# the most important problem you Fust identi#ied, ho) )ell or badly

)ould you say go"ernment has handled that issue since the 2011 elections8

17

DonAt =no)

Eery


18/68

Thining o# the most important problem Fust identi#ied, ho) )ell or badly

)ould you say go"ernment has handled that issue since the 2011 elections8

1&

Rates B Ta?es

$nemployment+orruption

Management o# conomy



ducation

ater .upply


/ealth

arming B griculture

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

219

2792&9

349

349

349

3;9

3&9

369

429

4:9

7&9

739729

:49

:49

:;9

:;9

:29

:29

;&9

;19

19

0'390';9

29

19

0'49

0';9

1'19

29

ell B Eery ell


19/68

Thining o# the most important problem you Fust identi#ied, could any

other political party ha"e done a better Fob than the @ational Resistance

Mo"ement in handling this issue8

16

Dont no)

@o

Ges

-109 09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709

219

:09

179


20/68

Thining o# the most important problem you Fust identi#ied, could any

other political party ha"e done a better Fob than the @ational Resistance

Mo"ement in handling this issue8 I G. hich political party is that8

20

5ther

+onser"ati"e *arty

Democratic *arty

$ganda *eopleAs +ongress

orum #or Democratic +hange

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

19

0'19

29

39

129


21/68


+ommitted to Multi-*arty lections

but .eptical o# *rocess


22/68

hich o# the #ollo)ing statements is closest to your "ie)8

22

ho people "ote #or can ma-e a big di##erence to )hat happens in this country'

@o matter )ho people "ote #or, it )onAt ma-e any di##erence to )hat happens in this country'

It ma-es a big di#erence )ho is in po)er' The right people can change things #or the better'

It doesnAt ma-e any di##erence )ho is in po)er, things Fust go on the same )ay'

e should choose our leaders in $ganda through regular, open and honest elections'

.ince elections sometimes produce bad results, )e should adopt other methods #or choosing the countryAs leaders'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

0'74

0'76

0'&2

229

179

1;9

gree B .trongly gree )ith .tatement 2 gree B .trongly gree )ith .tatement 1


23/68

>ets tal #or a moment about the ind o# political system you )ould lie

to ha"e in this country'

23

Many political parties are needed to ma-e sure that $gandans ha"e a real choice in )ho go"erns them'

*olitical parties create di"ision and con#usion' It is there#ore necessary to ha"e many political parties in $ganda'

The countryAs opposition parties represent real causes and interests'

The countryAs opposition parties are personal plat#orms #or disgruntled politicians )ho ha"e le#t the @RM'

5ppositon parties should regularly e?amine and critici%e go"ernment policies and actions'

5pposition parties should concentrate on cooperating )ith go"ernment and helping it de"elop the country'

I "ote #or a candidate )ho belongs to the political party that ad"ances ideas I support'

I "ote on the basis o# the indi"idual merits o# a man or )oman' The party they belong to is o# secondary interest'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

:39

;39

3&9

339

3;9

3;9

;:9

:;9



24/68


25/68

During the 2011 election, did you B )ere you

2;

09109209309409;09:09709&09609

1009

:19

12949 49 29

369

&&9 6:9 6:9 6&9

Ges @o B Don,t =no)


26/68

Do you e?pect the upcoming 201: elections to be

2:

DonAt =no)

@ot ree or air8

ree and air, but )ith MaFor *roblems8

ree and air, )ith Minor *roblems8

+ompletely ree and air8

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 6091009

2:9

69

139

1:9

349


27/68


28/68

Thining about politics today in $ganda, ho) o#ten do people ha"e to be

care#ul o# )hat they say about politics8

2&

DonAt =no)

@e"er

Rarely

5#ten

l)ays

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

:9

209

1&9

1&9

3:9


29/68

/o) much do you personally #ear becoming a "ictim o# political

intimidation or "iolence8

26

DonAt =no)

@ot at all

>ittle ot

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

;9

329

149

179

329


30/68

/o) liely do you thin it is that

30

*o)er#ul people can #ind out ho) you "oted, e"en though there is supposed to be a secret ballot in this country809

109

209

309

409

;09

:09

709

&09

609

1009

2292:9

329

:19;:9

4:9

179 1&9

229

EeryB.ome)hat @ot EeryB@ot t ll Dont =no)

h h # h # ll # l h


31/68

Do you thin each o# the #ollo)ing groups o# people support the same

political party as you, support another political party, or is their support

di"ided among se"eral di##erent parties, or dont you no) enough

about their "ie)s to say8

31

@eighbors +o-orers09

109

209

309

409

;09

:09

709

&09

609

1009

229 179

309269

379 439

119 69

.ame *arty Di"ided Dont =no) Di##erent *arty


32/68

To )hat e?tent do you thin people in your area )ill su##er negati"e

conse(uences i# they "ote #or the party o# their choice8

32

DonAt =no)

@ot at ll

>ittle

.ome)hat

Creat Deal

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

249

349

179

1;9

119


33/68

ould the presence o# armed security personnel army or police! at

polling places mae you #eel more secure, mae no di##erence or mae

you #eel less secure8

33

DonAt =no)

Much >ess .ecure

>ess .ecure

Mae @o Di##erence

More .ecure

Much More .ecure

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

29

109

109

69

249

449


34/68

ould the presence o# obser"ers #rom other countries mae things

better, mae no di##erence or mae things )orse8

34

DonAt =no)

Much orse

orse

Mae @o Di##erence


35/68


.upport Term >imits and

lection +ommission 5"erhaul


36/68


to ha"e in this country' hich o# the #ollo)ing statements is closest to

your "ie)8

3:

There should be no constitutional limits on ho) long the president can ser"ice'

The +onstitution should limit the president to ser"ing a ma?imum t)o terms in o##ice'

There should be no constitutional limits on the age o# the president'

@o one should be allo)ed to stand #or president i# they are older than 7; years o# age'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

309

309

:;9

::9



37/68

/o) much do you trust each o# the #ollo)ing, or ha"ent you heard

enough about them to say8

37

09

109

209

309

409

;09

:09

709

&09

609

1009

709

;79 ;19 469

239 209 209 1;9

209

1&9 239 2&9

2:9 2&9219

249

79

119 1;9149

239 2;9

219 249

39

;9&9 79

2;9 169

2;9 239

1969

39 29 49

&9 129 149

>ot .ome)hat Hust >ittle

@ot t ll Dont =no) B /a"enAt /eard


38/68

hich o# these statements is closest to your opinion8

The composition o# the lectoral +ommission

3&

DonAt =no)

Is ine as It +urrently Is

@eeds to


39/68

hich o# the #ollo)ing statements about our

political system is closest to your "ie)8

36

s head o# state, the president should continue to appoint members to the lection +ommission as pro"ided #or in the +onstitution'

DonAt =no) B gree ith @either

.ince the president is also a political contestant, he should not appoint members to the lectoral +ommission )ho is the re#eree o# the electoral process and the +onstitution should be changed accordingly'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

239

79

:49

gree B .trongly gree


40/68


>iely Eoter *articipation201: lections

In the ne?t elections in 201: )ill people be able to register using the


41/68

In the ne?t elections, in 201:, )ill people be able to register using the

same documents as be#ore, or do they need to get the ne) @ational ID

card in order to register, or ha"ent you had a chance to hear about this

yet8

41

DonAt =no) B /a"enAt /ad a +hance to /ear

+an Register )ith 5ld Documentation

@eed @e) @ational ID +ard

09109

209309

409;09

:09709

&09609

1009

169

1:9

:;9


42/68

I no) its a long )ay o##, but )hat are the chances o# your "oting in the

national elections #or president and parliament in 201:8 /o) liely, i# at

all are you to "ote in the ne?t elections8

42

Dont =no)

Re#used to ns)er

Eery $nliely

.ome)hat $nliely

.ome)hat >iely

Eery >iely

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

49

19

49

49

209

:09


43/68


ree and air lections +ampaign


44/68

/a"e you heard o# the ree and air lections campaign, or ha"ent you

had a chance to #ind out about this yet8

44

DonAt =no) B /a"enAt /ad +hance

@o

Ges

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

119

3:9

;49


45/68

Do you thin that the ree and air lections +ampaign represents the

interests o# go"ernment, o# opposition parties, or o# ordinary citi%ens, or

ha"ent you heard enough about it to say8

4;

DonAt =no) B /a"enAt /ad +hance

Co"ernment

5ppositon *arties

5rdinary +iti%ens

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

2:9

249

69

429


46/68


lectoral Re#orm


47/68



your "ie)8

47

.ince some groups are so important, li-e the rmy, )omen, youth and people )ith disabilities, )e should set aside a certain number o# seats #or representati"e s o# those groups'

There should be no parliamentary seats reser"ed #o r speci#ic sectors or special interest groups'

The "i ce president should be appointed by the p resident and ser"e as long as the president has con#idence in himBher'

The "ice president should be directly elected by the "oters and ser"e #or the same term o# o##ice as the president'

Mayors should be appointed by the national go"ernment'

Municipal mayors should be di rectly elected by the "oters in that to)nB"illageBcity'

09109

209309

409;09

:09709

&09609

1009

7;9

;29

1:9

169

4;9

749



48/68



your "ie)8

4&

I pre#er to -eep the present system )here )e "ote #or indi"idual candidates #or parliament'

I )ould rather ha"e an electoral system )here )e "ote #or a political party #or parliament, rather than #or indi"idual candidates'

I pre#er to -eep the present system )here )e "ote #or a candidate'

I )ould rather ha"e an electoral system )here political parties recei"ed seats in the national parliament in direct proportion to the number o# "otes it )ins'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

:49

:79

269

239



49/68


Money and *olitics

It taes a great deal o# money and silled people to run an e##ecti"e


50/68

It taes a great deal o# money and silled people to run an e##ecti"e

political party organi%ation and conduct election campaigns' ho

should be primarily responsible to pro"ide the #unds #or parties to carry

out these acti"ities8

;0

DonAt =no)

Re#used to ns)er

oreign Co"ernments

oreign 5rgani%ations

*arty Members

Co"ernment, 5ut o# Ta?payer unds

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

109

29

79

69

379

3;9


51/68

hich o# the #ollo)ing statements about our

political system is closest to your "ie)8

;1

.ince people are #ree to decide )hat to do )ith their money, people should be able to gi"e as much money as they )ant to a political party or candidate'

There should be legal limits on ho) much money any indi"idual or business can donate to a candidate or a political party'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

0';3

349



52/68


53/68


Roles and ?pectations o# lected Representati"es

M b # * li t h di## t ibiliti hi h # th


54/68

Members o# *arliament ha"e di##erent responsibilities' hich o# the

#ollo)ing do you thin is the most important responsibility o# your

Member o# *arliament8

;4

DonAt =no)

@one o# These

Monitor the *resident and his Co"ernment

Mae >a)s #or the Cood o# the +ountry

/elp +onstituents )ith their *ersonal *roblems

Deli"er Hobs or De"elopment to the +onstituency

>isten to +onstituents and Represent their @eeds

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709

39

09

39

119

79

119

:49

lected local go"ernment councilors ha"e di##erent responsibilities


55/68

lected local go"ernment councilors ha"e di##erent responsibilities'

hich o# the #ollo)ing do you thin is the most important responsibility

o# your elected local go"ernment councilor8

;;

DonAt =no)

@one o# These

Monitor the Mayor and his .ub-+ounty Co"ernment

Mae >a)s #or the Cood o# the .ub-+ounty

/elp +onstituents )ith their *ersonal *roblems

Deli"er Hobs or De"elopment to the .ub-+ounty

>isten to +onstituents and Represent their @eeds

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09

;9

29

29

49

1;9

1&9

;49


56/68


Cender, Gouth and *olitics



57/68



your "ie)8

;7

Men ma-e better political leaders than )omen, and should be elected rather than )omen'

omen should ha"e the same chance o# being elected to political o##ice as men'

09 209 409 :09 &09 1009

2;9

719

.trongly gree B gree )ith .tatement 2 .trongly gree B gree )ith .tatement 1


58/68

Do you agree or disagree )ith the #ollo)ing statement8 omen are

e(ually represented in the political decision-maing positions in $ganda'

;&

Dont =no)

.trongly Disagree

Disagree

gree

.trongly gree

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

79

69

139

349

379


59/68

/o) liely, i# at all, are you to "ote in the ne?t elections #or a )oman

candidate8

;6

Dont =no)

Eery $nliely

.ome)hat $nliely

.om)hat >iely

Eery >iely

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

49

;&9

2;9

;9

&9


60/68

/o) liely, i# at all, are you to "ote in the ne?t elections #or a candidate

younger than 308

:0

Dont =no)

Eery $nliely

.ome)hat $nliely

.om)hat >iely

Eery >iely

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

;9

2&9

249

1:9

2:9


61/68


Demographics


62/68

/o) interested )ould you say you are in public a##airs8

:2

DonAt =no)

@ot at ll Interested

@ot Eery Interested

.ome)hat Interested

Eery Interested

09 ;9 109 1;9 209 2;9 309 3;9 409

29

119

169

319

379


63/68

hen you get together )ith your #riends or #amily, )ould you say that

you discuss political matters

:3

DonAt =no)

@e"er

5ccasionally

re(uently

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09

19

329

;19

1:9


64/68

/o) o#ten do you

:4

09

109

209

309

409

;09

:09

709

&09

609

1009

;69

1:9;9 79 39

219

&9

119 3939

"ery Day e) Times ee


65/68

Respondents Cender

:;

emale

Male

09 109 209 309 409 ;09 :09 709 &09 609 1009

;09

;09


66/68

Respondents ge

::

:0 and older

;0 to ;6

40 to 46

30 to 36

1& to 26

09 ;9 109 1;9 209 2;9 309 3;9 409

&9

119

169

2:9

3;9


67/68

hat is the highest le"el o# education you ha"e completed8

:7

@o ormal .chooling

.ome *rimary

*rimary +ompleted

.ome .econdary

.econdary +ompleted

*ost .econdary uali#ication

.ome $ni"ersity

09 ;9 109 1;9 209 2;9 309 3;9

139

309

149

229

69

&9

49


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