IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK
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IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK
M6.3 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES
KAKI, IRAN
TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2013
32 DEAD
850 INJURED
THE EPICENTER: KAKI
• The town of Kaki is located 96 km (57
miles) southeast of Bushehr, a town on
the Persian Gulf that is home of Iran’s
first nuclear power plant, built with
Russian help.
• “No damage was done to the Bushehr
power plant.”
BUSHEHR: DAMAGE
Iran has a long history of
destructive earthquakes,
which have already left at
least 126,000 dead during
the 20th and 21st centuries.
ADDITIONAL PERSPECTIVE
IRAN: INTERACTION OF ARABIAN
—ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN PLATES
INTERACTING TECTONIC
PLATES
REGIONAL SEISMICITY
IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF
UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the
capability of a community to respond
without external help when three
continuums: 1) people, 2) community
(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and
social constructs), and 3) complex
events (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..)
intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by
single- or multiple-event
natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality,
morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses,
or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-
PREPARED for what will likely
happen
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the
functions of the community’s
buildings and infrastructure that
are UNPROTECTED with the
appropriate codes and standards
will be LOST.
INTENSITY
V VI VII VIII IX
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
ME
AN
D
AM
AG
E R
AT
IO
,
% O
F R
EP
LA
CE
ME
NT
V
ALU
E
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE
DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO
GROUND SHAKING
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO or
WARNING SYSTEM in place as a
strategic framework for concerted
local, national, regional, and
international actions.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE
CAPACITY TO RESPOND to
the full spectrum of emergency
situations that can occur.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT
during recovery and
reconstruction because it HAS
NOT LEARNED from either the
current experience or the
cumulative prior experiences.
BAM EARTHQUAKE:
DECEMBER 26, 2003
TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENCE
IRAN’S
COMMUNITIESDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• EARTHQUAKE
HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
EARTHQUAKE RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
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