Ipsos Brexit poll May 2016 · Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 16 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across

Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 1

Ipsos Brexit poll

May 2016

2 Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016

Contents

Referendum on EU

Impact of Brexit

Future of Europe


Methodology • These are the findings of the Brexit Survey. In total 11,030 interviews were conducted between March 25th – April 8th 2016 among

adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries.

• The survey was conducted in 14 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are

Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, and the

United States of America.

• The nine European Union countries represent approximately three-quarters of the EU’s population and 80% of its GDP.

• Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of

Belgium, Hungary, India, Poland, South Africa, and Sweden, where the sample was approximately 500+. The precision of Ipsos

online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate

to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos’ use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.

• In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output reflects the general population. Of the 14

countries surveyed online, 12 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,

Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States. The two remaining countries surveyed -

India (19%) and South Africa (47%) - have lower levels of internet connectivity and are therefore not reflective of the general

population; however, the online sample in these countries are valuable in their own right as they are more

urban/educated/income than their fellow citizens and are often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”.

• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or

not stated responses. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 4

Referendum on the

EU


Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,

Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016

Will Britain stay in the EU or vote to leave? Thinking about Britain's referendum on European Union membership, which of the

following outcomes do you think is most likely?

53% 47%

62%

38%

European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union

BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO

REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE

EUROPEAN UNION

BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE

THE EUROPEAN UNION





65

59

57

56

56

51

50

42

40

68

64

60

58

58

35

42

43

44

44

49

50

58

60

32

36

40

42

42

Great Britain

Germany

Poland

Hungary

Sweden

Spain

Belgium

France

Italy

Canada

United States

India

Australia

South Africa

Will Britain stay in the EU or vote to leave? Thinking about Britain's referendum on European Union membership, which of the

following outcomes do you think is most likely?

European Union countries

Countries outside of the European Union

% - BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO

REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE

EUROPEAN UNION

% - BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO

LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION



Base: 6017 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016

Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote “OUT”? Do you think your own country should or should not hold a referendum on its European

Union membership?

How would you vote if your country held such a referendum now?

45% 33%

Think their own

country should hold a

referendum on EU

membership

Would vote "out" if a

referendum on their

country's EU

membership was held

now



Base: 6017 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016

Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote “OUT”? Do you think your own country should or should not hold a referendum on its European

Union membership?

How would you vote if your country held such a referendum now?

58%

55%

43%

42%

41%

40%

40%

38%

48%

41%

39%

29%

22%

34%

26%

29%

Italy

France

Sweden

Belgium

Poland

Germany

Spain

Hungary

THINK THEIR OWN COUNTRY SHOULD HOLD A

REFERENDUM ON EU MEMBERSHIP

WOULD VOTE "OUT" IF A REFERENDUM ON THEIR

COUNTRY'S EU MEMBERSHIP WAS HELD NOW





Impact of Brexit on future EU To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow

48%

35%

18%

42%

42%

16%


AGREE

NEITHER AGREE NOR

DISAGREE

DISAGREE





Impact of Brexit on future EU To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow

15

9

16

12

9

8

11

9

8

9

15

9

5

5

40

42

35

39

39

37

32

33

34

40

33

35

30

28

26

31

37

31

37

34

40

40

36

41

33

35

51

53

13

9

9

13

10

18

12

13

19

9

12

16

12

11

6

9

3

5

4

3

5

5

3

2

8

5

2

3

Hungary

Sweden

Italy

Germany

Belgium

Poland

Spain

France

Great Britain

United States

India

South Africa

Canada

Australia



% STRONGLY AGREE

% TEND TO AGREE

% NEITHER AGREE NOR

DISAGREE

% TEND TO DISAGREE

% STRONGLY AGREE


Impact of Brexit





The impact of Brexit on the British and EU economy If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive

or negative impact, or make no difference, on…

the EU’s economy / Britain’s economy?

European Union

countries

Countries outside of the

European Union

36%

51%

29%

41%

THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT

TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EU'S ECONOMY

THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT

TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY





The impact of Brexit on the British and EU economy If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive


the EU’s economy / Britain’s economy?

European Union countries Countries outside of the

European Union 75

60 53 53

49 49 44

40 39

49 44 44

39

28

46

37 36 30

39

24

43

30

43

34 31 26 26 25

Hungary Sweden Spain Poland Belgium Italy GreatBritain

France Germany SouthAfrica

Canada UnitedStates

Australia India

% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT

TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EU'S ECONOMY

% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT

TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY





The impact of Brexit on world politics If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive


the EU’s influence on the world stage / Britain’s influence on the world stage?

European Union

countries

Countries outside of the

European Union

38%

48%

26%

34%

THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY

NEGATIVE FOR EU'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE

THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY

NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE





The impact of Brexit on world politics If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive


the EU’s influence on the world stage / Britain’s influence on the world stage?

European Union countries Countries outside of the

European Union

68

59

49 47 45 45 39 39 38

43 36 34 31

26

48

37 41 36

41

30

39 41

31 37

23 26 23 24

Hungary Sweden Spain Poland Belgium Italy GreatBritain

Germany France SouthAfrica

UnitedStates

Canada Australia India

% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY

NEGATIVE FOR EU'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE

% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY

NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE



Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain,

Sweden, United States, March-April 2016

Impact of Brexit on relationship with UK If Britain leaves the European Union, do you think it would make the relationship

between your country and Britain stronger, weaker, or make no difference?

5%

46% 48%

16%

64%

21%


STRONGER

MAKE NO

DIFFERENCE

WEAKER



Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain,

Sweden, United States, March-April 2016

Impact of Brexit on relationship with UK If Britain leaves the European Union, do you think it would make the relationship

between your country and Britain stronger, weaker, or make no difference?

58

56

54

46

46

44

44

37

32

24

20

15

12

38

41

39

48

52

49

53

52

59

51

58

74

77

4

4

8

6

2

7

4

11

9

25

22

12

12

Spain

Germany

Hungary

Poland

Belgium

Italy

France

Sweden

South Africa

India

United States

Canada

Australia



% STRONGER

% MAKE NO DIFFERENCE

% WEAKER


Future of Europe



How the future EU will and should look like

Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016

Do you think the European Union in 2020

will...

What should be the long-term policy of

your country?

6%

16%

39%

29%

11%

...have a single European government

...be more integrated, with more powers

for the European Union compared to

individual countries

...resemble todays European Union, with

the same balance of powers between the

EU and individual countries

...be less integrated, with fewer powers

for the European Union compared to

individual countries

...have disappeared altogether

15%

24%

18%

23%

21%

Work for the formation of a single

European government

Stay in the EU and try to increase the EU's

powers

Leave things as they are

Stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's

powers

Leave the European Union



How the future EU will and should look like (1) Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... and

(2) What should be the long-term policy of your country…

21%

39% 40% 39%

18%

43%

More Europe Same Less Europe

(1) ...have a single European

government+ ...be more integrated, with

more powers for the European Union

compared to individual countries

(2) Work for the formation of a single

European government + Stay in the EU

and try to increase the EU's powers

(1) ...resemble todays European Union,

with the same balance of powers

between the EU and individual

countries

(2) Leave things as they are

(1) ...be less integrated, with fewer

powers for the European Union

compared to individual countries +

...have disappeared altogether

(2) Stay in the EU and try to reduce

the EU's powers + Leave the European

Union

Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016

WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT WILL BE (1)

WHAT PEOPLE WANT (2)



How the future EU will and should look like (1) Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... and

(2) What should be the long-term policy of your country…

17 47 36

50 17

33


21 33 47 43

21 36


21 38 41

20 28 52


22 27 51 44

12 45


18 42 41 40

13

47


22 45 33 46

20 34


24 39 37

15 20

65


25 34 41 43 14

43


22 46

32 48

18 34


Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016

Belgium Poland Sweden

Hungary France Germany

Great Britain Italy Spain

% WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT WILL BE % WHAT PEOPLE WANT


29%

37%

34% 21%

39%

40%


Views on future EU - outside Europe Do you think the European Union in 2020 will...



Outer pie:

Countries

outside of the

European Union

Inner pie: European

Union countries

…HAVE A SINGLE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT+ BE MORE INTEGRATED, WITH MORE POWERS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES

…RESEMBLE TODAYS EUROPEAN UNION, WITH THE SAME BALANCE OF POWERS BETWEEN THE EU AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES

...BE LESS INTEGRATED, WITH FEWER POWERS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES + ...HAVE DISAPPEARED ALTOGETHER

43%

34%

29%

23%

18%

28%

31%

35%

43%

47%

30%

35%

37%

34%

35%

India

South Africa

United States

Australia

Canada

www.ipsos-mori.com/


Jean-Michel Lebrun

Research Director, Ipsos

+32 (0) 2 642 49 10

[email protected]

For more information

Gideon Skinner

Research Director, Ipsos MORI UK

+44 (0)20 7347 3260

[email protected]

Daan Bijwaard

Research Executive, Ipsos

+32 (0) 2 642 49 37

[email protected]

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/ipsosconnect

Ipsos Brexit poll May 2016 · Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 16 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across

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