- 1. IPPAIAsia Energy Security Summit 2012Energy-maritime
security nexus:Threats facing Asias maritime domain Chietigj
Bajpaee Kings College London/ Vivekananda International
FoundationFebruary 29, 2012
2. Key points Maritime security integral part of energy
securitydomain Non-state security threats represent prevalentthreat
to the maritime domain in Asia but lastingthreat will emanate from
traditional, state-to-staterivalries Sustainable solution
contingent upon developingan integrated, holistic and cooperative
regionalapproach to regional maritime security concerns 3.
Maritime-energy security nexus 4. Strategic importance of maritime
domain Vulnerability of chokepoints: Over half of the worlds annual
merchant traffic by tonnage passes through the Malacca, Sunda and
Lombok Straits 15 million bpd of oil and petroleum products transit
the Strait of Malacca, accounting for half of worlds oil exports
Asian dependence on maritime traderoutes: 80% of Chinas oil imports
transit the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Almost 90% of Indias
oil imports come via maritime trade routes Asia meets
three-quarters of its oil demand through imports, which is expected
to increase to 90% by 2030 Sea as resource South China Sea holds an
estimated seven billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet
of natural gas 5. Non-state threats receding inSouth/ Southeast
Asia Southeast Asia Political stability in Indonesia Peace in Aceh
Regional cooperation Malacca Straits Patrols South Asia LTTE defeat
removes most potent maritimeterrorist threat Reduced piracy threat
in Bay of Bengal/ primarilyarmed robbery 6. Non-state threats
persist in Indian OceanNumber of successful attacks down
Coordinated approach between regionalmultilateral joint command
operationsEU-led Operation AtalantaNATO-led Operation Ocean
ShieldUS-led Combined Taskforce-151 Ship protection measures
Private security companies Prosecuting captured pirates in
regionalstates with functional judicial systems Piracy threat
mutating Attacking softer/ onshore targets Increasing ransom
demands Using captured merchant vessels aspirate mother ships to
broaden range ofattacks balloon effect Piracy-terrorist nexus? 7.
Sustainable solution to non-statesecurity threats Collaboration and
coordination betweenlocal, regional and internationalstakeholders
Developing rules of engagement forarmed guards defending
commercialvessels Combating root causes of piracy onshore Poverty
and environmentaldegradation from commercialoverfishing Ungoverned
spaces arising fromabsence of a stable functioninggovernment in
Somalia Strengthening Puntland police forcein north-eastern Somalia
Clear demarcation of Somali EEZ 8. Inter-state threats re-emerging
Growing strategic importance of the maritimedomain as economic
lifeline to the region Renewed claims to disputed maritime
territoryfuelled by Protecting freedom of navigation Accessing
offshore energy resources Power projection ambitions Defending
sovereignty and territorial integrity Growing military capabilities
Growing inter-linkages between local, regional and global levels of
security 9. Continental vs. maritime disputes/state vs. non-state
actors Sovereignty in the maritime domain is more fluid or fungible
Players in the maritime domain more diverse, creating multiple
levels of interaction/ misunderstanding E.g. Destabilizing role of
fishing communities 10. Maritime boundary disputes between major
powers Takeshima/ Dokdo (Japan vs. South Korea) Senkaku/ Daiyutai
(Japan vs. China) Paracel (China vs. Vietnam) Spratly (China vs.
Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei) Northern Limit Line (North
vs. South Korea) Southern Kurils/ Northern Territories (Russia vs.
Japan) 11. Role of external actors Adoption of more coordinated
regional approach (Vietnam, Philippines, Japan) Growing engagement
with extra-territorial powers (US, Russia, India) A shift from de
facto to de jure recognition of sovereignty over disputed
territorieswould signal clear grounds for escalation of tensions
12. Road to cooperation Areas of mutual interest in the maritime
domain Maintaining freedom of navigation along SLOCs Joint
exploration of offshore oil and gas resources Combatting
non-traditional security threats, including maritime
piracy,terrorism and arms, narcotics and human trafficking
Overcoming regional trust deficit through Addressing root causes of
regional rivalries, including historical, culturaland power
considerations Moving away from informal codes of conduct toward
institutionalizedmechanisms Multilateral solution and more open
regionalism that takes account of theviews of extra-territorial,
non-claimant stakeholders 13. Conclusion Over short-term
inter-state maritime rivalries unlikely to manifest in the formof
armed conflict between the regions major powers. No major regional
power is in a position to exercise unilateral maritime dominance
over the Asia-Pacific while the United States remains the regions
predominant military power and maritime hegemon As most countries
remain focussed on internal growth, development and the
consolidation of political power, any rivalry is likely to manifest
itself in the realm of rhetoric, economics, military modernisation
and a competition for allies But climate of mistrust pervades the
region amid persistence of underlyinginter-state rivalries State
and non-state security threats in the maritime domain maintain
asymbiotic relationship Need to follow Malacca Straits Patrols
model Functional cooperation built upon pre-existing
confidence-building mechanisms (e.g. ASEAN) Multilateral, inclusive
and multi-level model of confidence building 14. Thank
youQuestions?