Energy security- Geography

ENERGY SECURITY

ENERGY SUPPLY, DEMAND AND SECURITY

ENERGY SOURCES Renewable energy source:

Energy source capable of natural regeneration on a human time scale

E.g. solar power, wind power Non-renewable energy source

Energy source that is finite on a human time scale Once exhausted, it can only be replaced over considerable periods

of geological time E.g. coal, natural gas

Recyclable energy source Reprocessed energy E.g. uranium in nuclear fission can be used repeatedly

Primary energy Energy found in natural resources I.e. original sources of energy – including renewable and non-

renewable Secondary energy

Primary energy that has been converted to a more convenient form E.g. electricity

DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES Russia and Eastern Europe

High reserves of natural gas and coal Amongst top ten countries for oil and uranium Energy surplus

Europe Dependent on energy imports Low energy efficiency – high wastefulness Lack of fossil fuel supply Energy insecurity

Middle East Large oil reserves Unstable regimes affecting fossil fuel supply Energy surplus

DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES CONTD. North America

Large coal resources Opportunity to exploit oil reserves in Arctic, Antarctic

and other sensitive areas Huge energy consumption – outweighs supplies Energy insecurity

Asia (excluding Russia) Large coal and uranium reserves Rapidly increasing demand – outweighs supplies Energy insecurity

Sub-Saharan Africa Dependency on foreign TNCs to exploit supply, e.g. oil

in Nigeria Energy Poverty

PHYSICAL FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES

Climate E.g. the need to keep cool in hot countries, by way

of air conditioning, significantly increases energy consumption in these countries

Availability E.g. geology determines availability of oil and coal

Local variations E.g. cloud cover and wind speed affect availability

of solar and wind energy Solar variations

E.g. stronger sun and longer sunshine hours along equator, therefore more potential for solar energy

HUMAN FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES

Energy infrastructure E.g. in LDCs, the infrastructure often doesn’t

exist to extract energy reserves such as oil Energy affordability

E.g. in some parts of the world where modern forms of energy are available, many people cannot afford to use it

Cultural preferences E.g. tradition keeps people using traditional

forms of energy such as open coal fires for heating

GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY

Energy Security The extent to which an affordable, reliable and

stable energy supply can be achieved Factors affecting energy security

Natural hazards Political instability Dependency on imports Range of energy sources used Costs of energy

FACTORS AFFECTING UK’S ENERGY SECURITY Gas availability

Diminishing North sea gas, expected to run out within 50 years In 2004, over 90% of the UK’s gas supply was produced in the UK In 2020, the gas supply from the UK is predicted to be less than 10%,

with 20% expected to be imported from Norway, 40% from Europe (excluding Norway) and the rest from other parts of the world

Lead to decreasing political power of UK and increasing political power of gas rich nations, e.g. Russia (supplies 30% of European gas)

Oil availability Volatile oil prices Potential for political instability between UK and oil producing states Reached peak oil production in USA in 1970 Many argue global peak oil was reached in 2006

Global warming and renewable energy concerns Restrictions on over use of coal for energy Limited amount of sun for solar panels Concerns over nuclear safety and waste plus cost of building of

nuclear plants

GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Factors leading to increased energy consumption Population increase Improved standards of living Industrialisation / economic development Rural to urban migration

Future trends Increasing power usage in China and India Western Europe more energy efficient Energy consumption in developing world expected to

double by 2050 Energy consumption in developed world expected to

increase by 1/3 by 2050 Energy consumption of developed and developing world

expected to be equal by 2050

CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY Energy consumption parallels that of its

economic development – it has more than quadrupled since 1980.

Energy Secure China is the biggest producer of coal in the

world, and relies on coal for 70% of its electricity generation.

The country also has large oil fields and controls 3% of the world’s oil reserves.

Though no longer self sufficient, can afford to import oil, predominantly from the Middle East.

Also relies on renewable energy; HEP (including the Three Gorges Dam) accounts for 16% of its energy production and therefore are plans to build HEP dams on all major rivers in China.

CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY CONTD. Energy Insecure

Dependency on coal – vulnerable to global warming sanctions. Chinese government being pressure to find alternatives to coal

in order to reduce its level of pollution and contribution to climate change.

China’s largest oil fields have now peaked and some say that oil will run out within two decades.

Oil deposits in the Tarim Basin, in the west of China, are difficult and expensive to exploit, due to its remote location and difficult geology.

China’s deepwater exploration for oil may be threatened by political conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines.

HEP: natural hazards are a major threat to dams, and after the Sichuan earthquake, plans for extensive construction of dams may be reconsidered

Natural gas: very expensive and difficult to build pipelines from gas fields in Western China while liquefied gas is in short supply

THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY INSECURITY

ENERGY PATHWAYS Energy pathway

The flows of energy from producer to consumer Oil pathways

Middle East exports the most oil – approximately 4000 barrels to Japan, 3000 to Europe and 2000 to North America

Former Soviet Union exports almost 7000 barrels South America exports approximately 2,500 barrels to USA Europe exports just 408 barrels – to North America

Gas pathways Main gas pathway is trans-Siberian pipeline from Russia to

Eastern Europe New gas pipeline planned to transport gas from the Middle

East to Eastern Europe to decrease dependency on Russia

ENERGY PATHWAYS CONTD.

Factors which make energy pathways vulnerable Geopolitical connections between countries

(Ukraine-Russia) War – e.g. Gulf war, Iraq war Strikes by energy workers Damaged infrastructure from natural disasters Disintegration of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) Terrorism

DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES:RUSSIA AND EUROPE

Russia and Ukraine Gas Dispute In November / December 2004, Ukraine’s

government changed. This government had pro-Western policies as

opposed to pro-Russian policies. As a result, Russia quadrupled the price of its gas

to Ukraine and the government of Ukraine refused to pay.

Gazprom (51% owned by Russian government) cut of the gas to Ukraine.

DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES:RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD.

Europe’s dependency on Russia Russia supplies a large proportion of Europe’s gas, and

most of this is piped through Ukraine. When Gazprom stopped supplying gas to Ukraine, the

flow of gas to the rest of Europe fell by 40% in some areas

Countries that rely on Russian gas could suffer economically if gas is cut

Europe’s energy security Gazprom relies on income from gas exports to Europe Russian gas was stable even during the Cold war New pipelines planned which bypass Ukraine and Blarus South Caucus pipeline will bring gas from Azerbaijan to

Europe via Turkey Europe looking alternative energy sources

DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES:RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD.

South Stream Pipeline Proposed gas pipeline owned by Gazprom Aims deliver gas from central Asia and Russia to

central Europe and Italy through the Balkans Will rival the proposed Nabucco pipeline, owned

by the EU to deliver gas to Eastern Europe EU believe that Russia aims to use their gas

supplies for political power and to outcompete the Nabucco pipeline

LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY

Canada’s oil sands Oil sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water and

type of oil called bitumen Largest reserves of oil sands are in Alberta in Canada;

produced a million barrels of oil per day in 2003 and plan to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2030

Costs of exploiting oil sands Expensive to extract oil Very energy intensive and a large source of

greenhouse gas emissions – conventional oil production requires much less energy

Very water intensive – 2 to 5 barrels of water to produce every barrel of oil

Environmental impacts – removal of trees, shrubs and soil

LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY: CANADA’S OIL SANDS

Benefits Provide an alternative source of oil when other

conventional soruces are unavailable for political or access reasons

Could meet 16% of North America’s demand for oil by 2030

Additional source of oil until more renewable sources are developed / implemented

Benefits Canadian economy – accounted for 20% of total exports in 2007

ENERGY PLAYERS Cartel

An association of producers or suppliers Formed to monopolise the production and distribution of a

product to control prices E.g. Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Advantages of cartels for producers Able to collectively control supply and therefore global prices Maximises profits of producers – when state owned, also GDP Political power – e.g. Yom Kippur war oil embargo where OPEC

cut off supply to USA so they would stop supporting Israel Disadvantages of cartels for producers

To ensure oil prices remain high, supply must be relatively low, meaning overall income is limited

Advantages of cartels for consumers Aim of cartel is to have stable prices – increases reliability for

consumer Disadvantages of cartels for consumers

Commodity traders cannot control prices Political instability / conflict may affect supply Highest prices

ENERGY SECURITY AND THE FUTURE

GLOBAL ENERGY UNCERTAINTIES

Factors contributing to global energy uncertainties Future performance of global economy Scale of global population growth Impact of rising living standards Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves Discovery of new energy technologies Scale of possible witch to renewable energies Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil

sources Emergent economies energy demands

RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS

Business as usual Do nothing – fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of

energy worldwide Benefits

No investment needed in renewable energy Costs

55% increase in global energy related C02 emissions by 2030 Emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of

global emissions by 2030

Multi-energy solution Meeting future energy demands from a mixture of

renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources Benefits

Reduces CO2 emissions as a result of clean energy production Costs

Expensive to invest in renewable / recyclable energy Nuclear energy controversial – nuclear waste and safety of

plants

RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS CONTD.

Energy conservation Decreasing the amount of energy used Benefits

Decrease global energy related CO2 emissions Extends time that fossil fuels can be used

Costs Likely to inhibit growth of developing countries Requires large investment from governments

globally

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN FRANCE Benefits

75% of electricity generated from nuclear power – helps to meet high energy demand

Largest exporter of electricity from nuclear power – increases GDP

Low levels of CO2 per capita Helps meet targets set by Copenhagen summit Environmentalists view (James Lovelock):

Amount of uranium needed is significantly less than coal and oil (small bottle of uranium = 200 tonnes of oil)

Amount of nuclear waste is minimal unlike 700 tonnes of CO2 produced by fossil fuels

Nuclear far cheaper while oil / coal prices will increase Costs

Nuclear waste sent to Normandy for reprocessing – 97% recycled and 3% stored and disposed

Land needs to cleared to build plants – visual pollution Danger of nuclear disaster (Chernobyl, 1986) Expensive - €15 billion for nuclear waste disposal Fear of terrorists getting hold of nuclear energy

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CUMBRIA

Benefits Employment – 10,000 employees, 90% from West

Cumbria Attracts investment Increases local income and therefore council spending

Costs Radioactive waste Reliance on one industry – dangerous if it closes Dangerous – 21 serious incidents of accidents between

1950 and 2000 Some waste dumped in Irish sea – Irish government

pressuring Sellafield to close Visual pollution – damages tourist industry

WIND POWER Benefits

Wind is free – low efficiency is unimportant as it doesn’t coast to harness it and it is an infinite resource

Wind turbines save 4 million tonnes of carbon annually Costs

Low efficiency – only 30% of energy harnessed in comparison with 60% for coal powered plants

Unreliable – power generated can double one day to the next – may not always meet demand so need fossil fuels as backup

Long process to build wind farms – must be approved by government, councils, locals etc.

Expensive to build wind turbines – price will increase as less efficient sites will have to be used (efficient sites already used)

Environmentalist’s point of view (James Lovelock again): ‘Far too late’ for renewable energy 1 nuclear station = 3000 wind turbines On-shore wind farms damage farmland that will be needed to grow

food Ruins aesthetic (visual pollution) Inefficient

ENERGY CONFLICTS Terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil processing plant

Al Qaida terrorists tried to take over Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia

Attempted to drive vehicles loaded with explosives into the compound

Two hour gun battle between officials and terrorists Two terrorists and two guards killed but no damage to

plant US invasion of Iraq – possible reasons

Saddam Husain was considered a threat to the security of Western oil supplies in Middle East – by 2003 he was making deals with Russian and Chinese oil companies

Iran as an energy power 3rd largest oil reserves and 2nd largest natural gas

reserves Japan and China both import 13% of their oil from Iran Alliances developing between Moscow, Tehran and

Beijing – energy exports from Russia and Iran in exchange for Chinese goods

RADICAL NEW APPROACHES Kyoto protocol Agreements for MDCs to cut emissions and for NICs to monitor

emissions Benefits

Long term agreement to reduce global CO2 emissions Problems

NICs such as China and India had no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions

USA didn’t sign protocol Cap and trade scheme (2007) Government sets a limit (cap) on carbon emissions – carbon emissions

not used can be sold as credits to companies that produce over the limit

Benefits Limits emissions in the private sector Financial motivation for companies to use less energy credits so they sell

them Costs

Companies can continue releasing high emissions by buying energy credits from lower polluting companies

RADICAL NEW APPROACHES CONTD. Green taxes In the UK, vehicle exercise duties (VED) tax vehicles according

to their level of CO2 emissions Other taxes include fuel tax and aviation tax Benefits

Encourages less polluting vehicles to be used Problems

Those who can afford the VED may use pollution vehicles anyway

Combined heat and power (CHP) Captures and regulates the waste heat produced in electricity

generation Benefits

Cuts emissions Increases efficiency of electricity generation Can use biofuels

Costs Predominantly uses fossil fuels Expensive