CITYWIRE Berlin 2011 Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund How low volatility equity strategies can help you squeeze more return out of equity allocations whilst taking less risk This presentation is exclusively for use by professional clients and financial advisors in Continental Europe and is not for retail client use. Please do not redistribute. presented by: Michael Fraikin Head of Portfolio Management and Thorsten Paarmann, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Invesco Global Quantitative Equity
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CITYWIRE Berlin 2011
Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund How low volatility equity strategies can help you squeeze more return out of equity allocations whilst taking less risk
This presentation is exclusively for use by professional clients and financial advisors in Continental Europe and is not for retail client use. Please do not redistribute.
presented by:
Michael Fraikin
Head of Portfolio Management
and Thorsten Paarmann, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager Invesco Global Quantitative Equity
2
Table of contents
1. The Case for Low Volatility Equities – Theory vs. Practice
2. Investment Process – An innovative approach
3. Performance – Consistent alpha
Appendix
1. The Case for Low Volatility Equities – Theory vs. Practice
4
Portfolio Theory vs. Practice
• Markowitz Theory: Higher Returns only achievable when taking higher risks
• Practice: Invesco study on risk-return relationship of Stoxx 600 members over the period 2002 to 2010
- A negative regression line shows that stocks with higher volatility do not outperform lower volatility stocks
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Annualised Volatility
Annualised R
etu
rn
The slope of the regression line is negative!
Source Bloomberg, Invesco Research, European equities members of the Stoxx 600 over the period 30.06.2002 to 30.06.2010 (8 years). Volatility is calculated as annualised standard deviation of monthly returns.
Market Index
Efficient Frontier
Minimum Variance Portfolio = combination of equities with lowest possible risk
Market Portfolio = well diversified portfolio
Risk Retu
rn
Market Index
Efficient Frontier
Minimum Variance Portfolio = combination of equities with lowest possible risk
Market Portfolio = well diversified equity
5
Invesco’s stocks universe grouped by (historic) volatility 10 = least volatile 10% of universe; 1 = most volatile 10% of universe
Source: Invesco Research Data from 12/1996 to 06/2011. 10 represents the 10% stocks with the lowest volatility. For illustrative purposes only.
• Highest volatility stocks underperform on average
6
Possible explanations for this “Volatility Anomaly”
• Limited Arbitrage Opportunities
— Leverage restrictions limit possibility to combine a low beta portfolio with leverage
— Shorting potential of high volatility stocks is constrained: top volatility stocks tend to be small stocks which are costly to trade and where borrowing is limited
• Lottery effect
— Equities with higher volatility are able to produce higher returns and investors are willing to pay a premium for this possibility
• Blind reliance on the theoretically assumed higher return for higher risk
• Separation of allocation and selection
— Strategic asset allocation is typically separated from asset/fund selection
— High beta is a simple strategy for expected outperformance in an asset class
7
Performance of European risk factors relative to the market average
Source: Barra, Invesco Research Data from 12/1994 to 06/2011; logarithmic returns
For illustrative purposes only.
• A number of risk factors add value over the long term,
For illustrative purposes only 1Not all factors are used in all regions and sub-models. Additional factors are used in specific sub-models and definitions may vary across regions.
Are valuations attractive?
Are earnings improving or deteriorating?
What is the price action telling us?
What is management doing?
Stock Selection Universe
14
Engineering the Optimal Portfolio
Final Review
Stock Risk Forecasts
Stock Return Forecasts
Portfolio
Optimization through GPMS1
Transaction Cost Forecast
Portfolio Guidelines & Constraints
1Global Portfolio Management System For illustrative purposes only
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Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund Largest sector weights
Source: Invesco, MSCI, BARRA; Data as at 30 September 2011. ‘MSCI Europe’ is MSCI Europe ND.
18,9%
8,0%
5,4%
7,4%
14,1%
11,9%
8,1%
9,0%
11,5%
12,7%
20,2%
19,2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Financials
Consumer
Discretionary
Utilities
Telecommunication
Services
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Portfolio
MSCI Europe
3. Performance – Consistent alpha
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Source: Invesco, MSCI. Data as at 30 September 2011. ‘MSCI Europe NDR’ is MSCI Europe ND. Fund performance: Mid to mid, Gross income reinvested, net of fees (A-Shares). Past performance is not an indication of future performance, provides no guarantee for the future and is not constant over time. Volatility is calculated on the basis of monthly data and is not shown YTD as respective figures have therefore little meaning. *annualised under current strategy
Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund Excellent track record since change of strategy in 2006
• Consistent performance over all periods
• Portfolio significantly less volatile than benchmark
-7.30%
5.44%
1.10% 1.10%
-0.23%
-5.23%
-15.61%
-1.27%
-10.26%
-5.23%
12.19%14.46% 15.42% 15.42%
18.72% 17.74% 17.74%
14.03%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
YTD 1 year 3 years * 5 years * since 29/09/06 *
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Invesco Pan European Structured Fund A MSCI Europe NDR
Volatility Fund (rhs) Volatility MSCI Europe (rhs)
Volatility Fund vs. Benchmark
Performance Fund vs. Benchmark
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Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund Attribution analysis year to date 2011, A-Shares
Source: Invesco, MSCI, BARRA; Data as at 30 September 2011. The above information is based on analysis using the BARRA Performance Analyst. Performance figures are annualised and are shown EUR, inclusive of net reinvested income and net of the annual management charge and all other fund expenses (A-Shares). Past performance is not an indication of future performance, provides no guarantee for the future and is not constant over time. *Risk is measured in standard deviations.
-Country/sector positions residual of stock selection
-Style factors: smaller cap stock exposure hurt
-Stock selection strong
Contribution Analysis
(Return in % )
Analysis Period: January until September 2011
9 months
Fund: Pan European Structured Equity
Benchmark: MSCI Europe ndr*
*net dividend reinvested
Volatility
(Beta)
Countries &
Currencies
4.26 -1.09
2.59 1.12
Return (%)
-15.61
5.52 18.62
8.32
Risk (%)*
Fonds
-7.29
Active Benchmark
15.10
Sectors
2.00
4.12
2.16
1.71
Stock
SelectionStyle Factors
-0.68
1.96
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Performance behaviour of the fund:
Source: Invesco, MSCI; For illustrative purposes only. Source: Invesco. Data as at 30 September 2011. ‘MSCI’ is MSCI Europe ND. Fund performance (A Shares): Mid to mid, Gross income reinvested, net of fees. Past performance is not an indication of future performance, provides no guarantee for the future and is not constant over time.
Bear Market “Normal” Market Bull Market
Monthly index performance <-3% -3% - +3% > +3%
Average monthly net alpha 1.8% 0.6% -0.9%
• Strongest alpha contribution when investor needs it the most, i.e. to reduce drawdowns in bear markets
• Some 60 bps/month positive alpha net of fees in normal market environment
• In strong bull markets portfolio tends not to fully participate in rally
-24%
-21%
-18%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
-13% -9% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
active performance (left hand scale)
Perf. MSCI (right hand scale)
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Reasons to consider investing in the Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund
• High alpha/high conviction investment strategy
— ‘Best ideas portfolio’: High alpha potential from stock selection due to unconstrained optimisation approach
— built on 25+ years of stock selection process using proven fundamental and behavioural concepts
• Lower volatility of fund reduces drawdown risk
— More efficient use of available risk budget without compromising the return potential
• Diversification benefit from unique return pattern
— Minimum variance approach combined with quantitative stock selection results in outperformance pattern that differs from those of traditional managers
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Fund facts Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund
Fund Name Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund
Launch Date June 2002
Fund Manager Michael Fraikin, Thorsten Paarmann, CFA
Investment Team Invesco Global Quantitative Equity
Domicile Luxembourg
Legal Status Luxembourg SICAV with UCITS III status
Source: Invesco, as at 30 September 2011. Any reference to a ranking, rating or an award provides no guarantee for future performance results.
Appendix:
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Benefits of Group Structure:
• All portfolios are team-managed
• Functional team approach that permits us to focus on what we do best
• Well rounded team of over 40 experienced professionals at five locations: - Frankfurt - New York - Boston - Melbourne - Tokyo
Bernhard Langer, CFA, CIO, Global Quantitative Equity
Research
Bob D’ Amore Karl Georg Bayer Ralph Coutant, CFA Bartholomaeus Ende Anna Gulko, CFA Dr. Martin Hennecke Anne-Marie Hofmann
Dr. Stephan Holtmeier Satoshi Ikeda Jochen Jenkner Dr. Matthias Kerling Dr. Jens Langewand Edward Leung, PhD Dr. Gangolf Mittelhäußer
Zhanar Omarova Sergey Protchenko Ruth Rodriguez Peter Secakusuma Dr. Margit Steiner Andrew Waisburd, PhD
Portfolio Management
Manuela von Ditfurth Uwe Draeger Michael Fraikin Nils Huter Dr. Martin Kolrep Helena Korczok-Nestorov Ken Masse, CFA
Anthony Munchak, CFA Glen Murphy, CFA Robert Nakouzi Francis Orlando, CFA Thorsten Paarmann, CFA Nicole Schnuderl Hiroshi Tanizawa
Daniel Tsai, CFA Anne Unflat Alexander Tavernaro, CFA Alexander Uhlmann, CFA Donna Wilson Hiroaki Yamazaki
Portfolio Management Associates
Jennifer An Karin Arnefors
Karen Buckley Julian Keuerleber
Jan Kurras Daveka Persaud
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Source: Invesco. As of September 30, 2011.
Global Quantitative Equity
TEAM
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Global Quantitative Equity
STRATEGIES
Note: This is a representative list of Global Quantitative Equity strategies and is not inclusive of all products offered. Balanced Solutions mandates are managed in conjunction with Invesco’s Global Asset Allocation investment team. Source: Invesco. As of June 30, 2011.
• Managing over US$20 billion
• Experienced team of over 40 investment professionals
• Global research agenda to continually improve forecasts
• Unified approach to stock return forecasting and portfolio construction
A Rich History of Development
1983 U.S. Structured Core Equity
2007 Directional Long-Short (130/30)
1992 U.S. Small Cap Core; U.S. Mkt Neutral
1995 Equitized U.S. Market Neutral
1996 U.S. Enhanced Index
1999 European Structured Core
2000 Eurobloc Structured Core
2001 Global Structured Core
2002 Absolute Return (multi-strategy hedge fund approach)
2003 Global Balanced Solutions
2005 European/ Global Unconstrained
2006 European Market Neutral
2008 Global Market Neutral
1991 Financial Futures
2009 U.S. Unconstrained
2010 Emerging Markets
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Key portfolio characteristics
• Well diversified portfolio
— Maximum absolute position1 2.0%
— Maximum industry and sector weight1 25.0%
• Universe of largest and most liquid European equities
— Minimum requirements on market capitalisation and free float
Source: Invesco, MSCI; Data gross of fees, as of 30/09/2011. Past performance is not an indication of future performance, provides no guarantee for the future and is not constant over time. Please see important information on GIPS in the appendix.
Annualized Compound Rates of Return Ending December 31, 2010:
1 Year 17,15 16,28 11,10
2 Years 21,47 20,56 20,91
3 Years (1,47) (2,20) (6,25)
4 Years (0,42) (1,16) (4,09)
Since Inception (31/12/2005) 5,27 4,48 0,24
Invesco European Quantitative Unconstrained CompositeSchedule of Investment Performance
Invesco Worldwide claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance
with the GIPS standards. Invesco Worldwide has been independently verified for the periods 1st January 2003 thru 31
st December 2009. The legacy firms that
constitute Invesco Worldwide have been verified since 2001 or earlier. The verification reports are available upon request.
Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the
firm’s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the
accuracy of any specific composite presentation.
Notes:
1 Invesco Worldwide (“The Firm”) manages a broad array of investment strategies around the world. The Firm comprises U.S.-based Invesco Advisers, Inc. and all
wholly owned Invesco firms outside of North America. All entities within the Firm are directly or indirectly owned by Invesco Ltd. GIPS-compliant firms whose assets
are managed by subsidiaries of Invesco Ltd. are Invesco Trimark Ltd. and Atlantic Trust. Invesco Senior Secured Management, Inc. Invesco Private Capital, Inc. and
Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC are also affiliates of the Firm. Each is an SEC-registered investment adviser and is marketed as a separate entity.
Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co. Ltd (IGW) is a fund management company established under China Securities Regulatory Commission’s approval. Their
assets are excluded from total Firm assets. On Dec. 31, 2009, Invesco Aim Advisors, Inc. (AIM), Invesco AIM Capital Management, Inc. (ACM), Invesco Aim Private
Asset Management, Inc. (APAM) and Invesco Global Asset Management (N.A.), Inc. merged into Invesco Institutional (N.A.), Inc., which was then renamed Invesco
Advisers, Inc. Prior to 2010, AIM, ACM and APAM were part of separate GIPS firms and not included in the Firm. All Firm verifications have been completed through
Dec. 31, 2009. On June 1, 2010, Invesco acquired Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s (MSIM) retail asset business, including Van Kampen Investments.
Through this transaction, Invesco acquired approximately $119 billion in assets under management. Prior to the acquisition, MSIM was GIPS compliant and verified by
an independent verifier through Dec. 31, 2008. Assets under management prior to 2010 have not been restated to reflect either the above-referenced investment adviser
merger or the MSIM acquisition. Composite history and Firm assets prior to Jan. 1, 2010, are those of its respective components.
2 The European Quantitative Unconstrained strategy aims to provide adequate long term total returns in Euro at a risk smaller than that of the equity market. In the
strategy the expected return of an equity portfolio is optimized versus the expected risk using GQE forecasts of stock attractiveness. Whilst absolute limits on regions,
countries, industry and stock weights exist, the strategy is likely to exhibit risk substantially below that of a global equity index and a different return pattern. Portfolios
are hedged into the base currency.
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3 The Composite returns are benchmarked to the MSCI Europe (Net) Index. The benchmark is used for comparative purposes only and generally reflects the risk or
investment style of the product. Investments made by the Firm for the portfolios it manages according to respective strategies may differ significantly in terms of
security holdings, industry weightings, and asset allocation from those of the benchmark. Accordingly, investment results and volatility will differ from those of the
benchmark.
4 Stock index futures may be used to equitize cash balances as permitted by the client. Currency forwards are used to hedge foreign exchange risk exposure. Leverage is
not permitted.
5 Valuations and portfolio total returns are computed and stated in Euro. The firm consistently values all portfolios each day on a trade date basis. Portfolio level returns
are calculated as time-weighted total returns on daily basis. Accrual accounting is used for all interest and dividend income. Past performance is not an indication of
future results.
6 Carve-outs from multi-asset class portfolios are included within this composite. Cash is allocated to the constituent equity segment carve-out returns to arrive at a total
return for each portfolio. Prior to 31 December 2006, the cash allocation was based on 12 month moving average of representative equity-only portfolios managed
according to the same strategy. Effective 1 January 2007, carve-out returns are calculated by allocating cash according to the target cash position for the strategy. As
of 31 December 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, carve-outs comprised 100% of the composite.
7 Composite dispersion is measured by the standard deviation across asset-weighted portfolio returns represented within the composite for the full year.
8 The significant cash flow policy for this composite requires the temporary removal of portfolios for the period impacted when external cash flows equal or exceed 200%
for inflows or 67% for outflows. This policy applies to all Frankfurt-managed structured product composites except single-account composites where the performance
track record would otherwise be interrupted. Prior to 1 January 2007 portfolios were removed from composites when external cash flows were 10% or more.
9 Gross-of-fee performance results are presented before management and custodial fees but after all trading commissions and withholding taxes on dividends, interest and
capital gains, when applicable. Net-of-fee performance results are calculated by subtracting the highest tier of our published fee schedule for the product from the
monthly returns. The management fee schedule is as follows:
75 basis points on the first €25 million
70 basis points on the next €50 million
55 basis points on the next €125 million
40 basis points on the next €300 million
Negotiable thereafter. 10 The minimum portfolio size for the Composite is €800,000.
11 The composite creation date is July 31, 2006.
12 As of September 30, 2010, the European Unconstrained Optimization Equity composite was renamed the European Quantitative Unconstrained composite.
13 Foreign currency exchange rates for calculation of the composite and benchmark are based on the WM/Reuters Closing Spot Rates TM
that are fixed at approximately
4:00 p.m. London time.
14 The benchmarks is net of withholding tax based the maximum tax rate applicable to institutional investors. The composite returns are net of withholding taxes based on
actual withholding taxes deducted from the individual portfolios in the composite. Withholding taxes deducted from portfolios in the composite may vary depending on
domicile of the individual clients.
15 A complete list of composite descriptions is available upon request. Polices for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations is
available upon request.
Invesco European Quantitative Unconstrained CompositeSchedule of Investment Performance
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Important information
This document is exclusively for use by professional clients and financial advisors in Continental Europe and is not for consumer use. Data as at 30 September 2011, unless otherwise stated. Please do not redistribute this document.
The information provided on the investments and investment strategy (including current investment themes, the research and investment process, and portfolio characteristics, weightings, and allocation) represents the views of the portfolio manager at the time this material was completed, and is subject to change without notice.
This marketing document does not form part of any prospectus. Whilst great care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, no responsibility can be accepted for any errors, mistakes or omissions or for any action taken in reliance thereon. Opinions and forecasts are subject to change without notice. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations in investments which have an exposure to foreign currencies) and investors may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not an indication of future performance, provides no guarantee for the future and is not constant over time. The performance data shown does not take account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. Any reference to a ranking, a rating or an award provides no guarantee for future performance results and is not constant over time. There is potential for increased volatility in emerging stock markets, and only a modest proportion of investable wealth should be invested in them. Investing in funds focused on specific themes, particular areas of the market or small capitalisation companies may increase the risk associated with them due to the volatility and/or the concentrated nature of these investments. Investors should read the fund simplified and full prospectuses for specific risk factors and further information. This document is not an invitation to subscribe for shares in the fund and is by way of information only. It is not intended to provide specific investment advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, legal, accounting or tax advice, or to make any recommendations about the suitability of the fund(s) for the circumstances of any particular investor. You should take appropriate advice as to any securities, taxation or other legislation affecting you personally prior to investment. Asset management services are provided by Invesco in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulations. www.invescoeurope.com
Additional information for investment professionals in Germany, Austria and Switzerland:
This document is issued in Germany by Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH regulated by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. This document is issued in Austria by Invesco Asset Management Österreich GmbH and in Switzerland by Invesco Asset Management (Schweiz) AG. Subscriptions of shares are only accepted on the basis of the current fund prospectus. Swiss investment professionals should consider this document only in connection with the relevant monthly fund fact sheet which contains further performance information. Prospectuses and reports are available free of charge at Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, D-60322 Frankfurt am Main, Invesco Asset Management Österreich GmbH, Rotenturmstrasse 16-18, A-1010 Vienna, and Invesco Asset Management (Schweiz) AG, Stockerstrasse 14, CH-8002 Zurich. Paying agent for the fund in Switzerland: BNP Paribas Securities Services S.A., Paris, Zurich Branch, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8022 Zurich.