Introduction

Introduction• I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs• I have used Hulbert Financial Digest

To select Stock…But not for timing• Hulbert Newsletters with the highest

return which often have high Beta’s • My objective is not to buy & hold

Hulbert• Hulbert says easiest way to loss money, follow Last Year’s hottest

NL.

• Best results – NL’s with good 10–15 yr returns

• Hulbert says that a NL’s can be a goodstock pickers or good timers but not both

• Timing - Pat Finnegan's Stock Chart timing signalUsing signals for Stock Entry and Exsist

Studying News Letters

• Hulbert has been publishing for 33 yrs

• Looking for NL to help select stocks

• Hulbert Financial Digest tracks 189 NL

Out Line of Presentation• A Newletters can contain one Portfolio or as many as 9 portfolios

• Hulbert data base:NL’s monthly return (1 - 9 Portfolios) Every Portfolio’s (inside NL) monthly return

• Hulbert is reporting monthly on 541Portfolio’s at this time. NL-P

Hulbert • Goal is find Newsletters that have

good performance over 15, 10, 5 years

• Some of these top Portfolios suffer major declines during Financial Crisis & early 2000. It appears that Portfolio’s with high returns also have a very high Beta.

• (When the market is going down these Portfolios go down fast, you lose more than the market averages).

Raw Return NL-P• First slide covers YTD July 2013 1/13 - 07/13

• Second slide covers 2012 12 months 1/12 - 12/12

• Third slide reviews last three years 1/10 - 12/12

• Fourth slide will review last five years 1/08 - 12/12

• Fifth slide looks at the last ten years 1/03 – 12/12

• Fifth slide looks at the last ten years 1/98 – 12/12

July YTD 2013 Performance

• Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks 26%

• Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 106% • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 39%

• Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B 21%

• Linde Equity Report 1P 39%

ONE YR PERFORMANCE as of 12/2012by NL-P Annualize

• Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks 210%

• Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 74% • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 50%

• Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B 45%

• Linde Equity Report 1P 23%

Three Yr Performance as of 12/12 by NL-P Annualized

• Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stk 73%

• Medical Technology–Traders Portfolio 21%

• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio – Tech 24%

• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >$1B 22%

• Linde Equity Report 1P 11%

Five YR as of 12/2012by NL-P Annualized Beg 1/08

• Investment Reporter- Higher Risk Stks 17%

• Medical Technology Stk – Trader P -14%

• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 8%• • Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 0%

• Linde Equity Report 1P 6%

Ten YR as of 12/12 by NL-P Annualized Beg 1/03

• The Investment Reporter - Higher risk 20%

• Medical Technology- Trader P 20%

• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio 17%

• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 13%

• Linde Equity Report 1P 9%

Fifteen YRs Jan 1998 - Dec 2012• The Investment Reporter - Higher risk 8%

• Medical Technology- Trader P XX

• Buyback Letter – Health & Bio XX

• Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 10%

• Linde Equity Report 1P XX

Investment Reporter• Cost per year $337 p/yr• Number of Portfolios - 13 started 1941• Frequency Weekly• Best Portfolio 10yrs

P - Higher Risk - 20%P – Conservative stk - 18%

• Strategy – Fundamental + L/T view • Average Holding Period 5 years• Number of Securites P-High Risk - 2• Volatility vs Wilshire 11% higher• 75% Canadian, 25% US stock

Buyback Letter

• Cost per year $195 p/yr• Number of Portfolios - 9 started 1997 • Frequency Monthly• Portfolios 5P Best Health & Bio Tech • Strategy – Efficient market over looks stk

buyback• Average Holding Period 11 Months• Volatility vs Wilshire 5% less

Turnaround Letter

• Cost per year $ 195p/yr• No. of Portfolio 3 started 1987• Strategy– Stk to recover from previous period• Number of Securites – 19• Average Holding period 863 days• Volatility vs Wilshire 70% more

Forbes Special Situation• Cost per year $295 p/yr• Number of Portfolios one started 2001• Strategy – Fundamental• Frequency once a month with 1 stk p/mo • Number of Securites – 13• Average Holding period 231 days• Volatility vs Wilshire 70% higher

Linde • Cost per year $149 p/yr started 2001• Frequency Monthly with one stk

• Strategy– Stk with high equity returns• Number of Securites 13• Average Holding period 572 days• Volatility vs Wilshire 89% more

NL-P Draw Down annz 14 Jan 08 thru Feb 09

• Investment Reporter- High Risk -63%

• Medical Tech – Trader Portfolio -67%

• Buyback Letter- Health & Bio -38%

• Turnaround Letter- Small Cap >1B -72% • Linde Equity -53%

• Forbes Special Situation -25%

Conclusion

• Best performers have high Beta to the market• Need to have a exit plan for Bear Mkt• Should consider the Investment Reporter

Published since 1941• Negative – 75% of allocation Canadian Stocks• Some Canadian Stocks thinly traded