International Training Workshop on Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability

International Training Workshop on

Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability

July 6-15, 2014

Beijing, China

Organizer

CAS-TWAS Centre of Excellence for Climate and Environment Sciences

Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Sponsorship

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS),

for the advancement of science in developing countries

China Meteorological Administration (CMA)

Scientific Committee

Qingcun Zeng (ICCES, IAP, CAS)

Yihui Ding (National Climate Center, China),

Jiang Zhu (ICCES, IAP, CAS)

Song Yang (Sun Yat-sen University, China)

Zhaohui Lin (ICCES, IAP, CAS)

Bueh Cholaw (ICCES, IAP, CAS)

Feng Xue (ICCES, IAP, CAS)

Ziniu Xiao (China Metrological Administration, China)

Local Organizing Committee

Bueh Cholaw (ICCES/IAP, CAS)

Feng Xue (ICCES/IAP, CAS)

Ting Tong (ICCES/IAP, CAS)

Xinyue Li (ICCES/IAP, CAS)

Hongmei Tang (ICCES/IAP, CAS)

Lu Zhang (ICCES/IAP, CAS)

Contact Information

ICCES Secretariat

CAS-TWAS Centre of Excellence for Climate and Environment Sciences

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Beijing 100029, China

Tel: +86-10-82995124

Fax: +86-10-82995123

E-mail: [email protected]

http://2014icces-trainingworkshop.csp.escience.cn

Welcome to 2014 ICCES International Training Workshop

Dear Participants:

As a key component of the earth’s climate system, the Asian monsoon (AM) affects the

livelihood of more than 60% of the world population. The socio-economic infrastructure in

the AM countries has been built, in large part, on the basis of the annual cycle of the

monsoon. In particular, the water resources in these countries depend largely on the summer

monsoon precipitation. On the other hand, many of the Asian countries are developing

countries whose economies are fast growing yet considerably affected by anomalous

monsoon climate and weather events. In particular, droughts and floods associated with the

anomalous AM activities often cause severe property damage and loss of human life.

In order to enhance the understanding of the AM variability and predictability for the AM

countries, the international training workshop titled: “Asian Monsoon Variability and

Predictability” will be held on 6-15 July, 2014 in Beijing, China. The international training

workshop aims to push forward the research activities on AM monitoring, modeling and

predicting, as well as the adaptation and policy, and finally to foster the sustainable

development in the AM countries.

The workshop will include the following four sessions:

Session 1: Asian monsoon: general description

Session 2: Indian summer monsoon

Session 3: Asian winter monsoon

Session 4: Modeling and predictability of the Asian monsoon

Session 5: The global monsoon system and the East Asian monsoon

Session 6: ENSO monitoring and forecast

Sincerely Yours，

Local Organizing Committee of the International Training Workshop

2014 ICCES International Training Workshop on

Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability

July 6-15, 2014 Beijing, China

Conference Room 301, 3rd Floor Yuanchenxin International Hotel

Sunday, 6 July 2014

Registration 14:00- Registration and Administrative Formalities

18:00 Buffet

Monday, 7 July 2014

Inauguration

09:30-10:00

Mr. Jinghua Cao

Deputy Director,

Bureau of International Co-operation, CAS

Mr. Edward Lempinen

Public Information Officer,

The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS), for the advancement of science in

developing countries

Prof. Jiang Zhu

Director General,

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS

Prof. Ziniu Xiao

Deputy Director,

China Meteorological Administration Training Centre

Prof. Bueh Cholaw

Deputy Director,

CAS-TWAS Centre of Excellence for Climate and

Environment Sciences,

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS

Introduction to

2014 ICCES International

Training Workshop

10:00-10:30 Group Photo & Tea Break

10:30-12:00 Ice-break

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Session I:

The Global

Monsoon and the

14:00-15:30 Prof. Feng Xue Global Monsoon System and East Asian Monsoon (I)

15:30-15:45 Tea Break

East Asian

Monsoon 15:45-17:00 Prof. Feng Xue Global Monsoon System and East Asian Monsoon (II)

18:00 Welcome Dinner

Tuesday, 8 July 2014

Session II:

Asian Monsoon:

general description

09:00-10:30 Prof. Yihui Ding Climate Change and Inter-decadal Variability of the Asian

Monsoon (I)

10:30-10:45 Tea Break

10:45-12:00 Prof. Yihui Ding Climate Change and Inter-decadal Variability of the Asian

Monsoon (II)

12:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-16:00 Outreach (I)-Visit to CMA

18:00 Buffet

Wednesday, 9 July 2014

Session III:

Asian Winter

Monsoon

09:00-10:30 Prof. Bingyi Wu East Asian Winter Monsoon and Arctic Sea Ice Loss (I)

10:30-10:45 Tea Break

10:45-12:00 Prof. Bingyi Wu East Asian Winter Monsoon and Arctic Sea Ice Loss (II)

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Participants

Presentation

Chair:

Bingyi Wu

Bueh Cholaw

14:00-14:15 Sunil Kumar Pariyar Winter Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Nepal and Its

Relation with ENSO

14:15-14:30 Sasiwimon

PORNPRAPAI

Impact of Global Warming on Winter Monsoon Cold Surge

over Southeast Asia

14:30-14:45 T. K. BAHAGA

Potential Predictability of the Sea-surface Temperature

Forced Equatorial East African Short Rains Interannual

Variability in the 20th Century

14:45-15:00 D M H S

Dissanayake

Prediction of Adverse Climatic Conditions

In Archeologically and Agriculturally Important Areas of Sri

Lanka

15:00-15:15 Sukrit KIRTSAENG

Comparison and Verification of Different Convective

Parameterization Schemes in Short-range Rainfall

Prediction for Off-season Heavy Rainfall over Southern

Thailand

15:15-15:30 Tea Break

15:30-15:45 Bushra KHALID Transmission of Dengue Based on Urban Environmental

Gradients in Four Major Cities of Pakistan

15:45-16:00 Muhammad YAZID Trends in Indices of Daily Climate Extreme Precipitation

over Indonesia Peninsula from Aphrodite Dataset

16:00-16:15 Richard C. Y. LI Influences of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern on

synoptic-scale variability in the Western North Pacific

16:15-16:30 Zengyun Hu Evaluation of Reanalysis, Spatially-interpolated and

Satellite Precipitation Datasets over Central Asia

16:30-16:45 Davaanyam

Enkhbaatar

Estimation of Climate Extreme Indices and Their Trends

over Mongolia

18:00 Buffet

Thursday, 10 July 2014

Session IV:

Modeling and

Predictability of

the Asian

Monsoon

09:00-10:30 Prof. Song Yang Short-term Climate Prediction and Monitoring (I)

10:30-10:45 Tea Break

10:45-12:00 Prof. Song Yang Short-term Climate Prediction and Monitoring (II)

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Participants

Presentation

Chair:

Song Yang

Feng Xue

14:00-14:15 AKM Saiful Islam

Performance of Three Selected Convective Schemes for

Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using

RegCM4.4

14:15-14:30 Md Shafiqul BARI Consequences of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability on

Rice Cultivation in Bangladesh

14:30-14:45 Md Abu HANIF Farmers’ Perception on Asian Monsoon Variability and Its

Impact on Livelihood in Northern Bangladesh

14:45-15:00 Suman MAITY Sensitivity of South Asian CORDEX monsoon to cumulus

convection using RegCM4

15:00-15:15 Wajid Nasim Modeling the rainfall vulnerability and predictability in

Pakistan: simulation and field study

15:15-15:30 Sarinya

KIRTPHAIBOON

Empirical Ortrhogonal Function Analysis of Rainfall

Variability over Thailand with ENSO

15:30-15:45 Tea Break

15:45-16:00 Kritanai TORSRI

Impacts of High Spatiotemporal SST on Prediction of

Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Indochina Penninsular

Sub-region: A Case Study

16:00-16:15 Worachat

WANNAWONG

Sea Surface Temperature Variability of Indochinese

Peninsula Upwelling Implied by the Regional Oceanic

Modeling System

16:15-16:30 Paxson King Yeung

Cheung Review on Spring Persistent Barrier in ENSO predicting

16:30-16:45 Reshmita NATH Impact of Indian Summer Monsoon on Agricultural Drought

and Food Security in India

16:45-17:00 Lakemariam

Yohannes Worku

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity

in Upper Blue Nile Basin

18:00 Buffet

Friday, 11 July 2014

Session IV:

Modeling and

Predictability of

the Asian

Monsoon

09:00-10:30 Prof. Song Yang Seasonal Predictability and Prediction of the Asian and

Indo-Pacific Climate

10:30-10:45 Tea Break

10:45-12:00 Prof. Song Yang Subseasonal Predictability and Prediction of the Asian and

Indo-Pacific Climate

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Outreach (II)

Visit to UCAS

14:00-15:00 Mr. Yong Xie Introduction of UCAS

15:00-16:00 Prof. Huai Zhang Lab tour- Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics,

CAS

18:00 Buffet

Saturday, 12 July 2014

Session V:

The Western

Pacific subtropical

high and the

blocking over East

Asia

09:00-10:30 Prof. Riyu Lu Variability and Predictability of Summer Climate over the

Western North Pacific (I)

10:30-10:45 Tea Break

10:45-12:00 Prof. Riyu Lu Variability and Predictability of Summer Climate over the

Western North Pacific (II)

12:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-17:00 Outreach (III) - Scientific Tour

18:00 Buffet

Monday, 14 July 2014

Session VI:

ENSO Variability

and Predictability

9:00-10:30 Dr. Zengzhen Hu Challenges and Opportunities of ENSO Prediction (I)

10:30-10:45 Tea Break

10:45-12:00 Dr. Zengzhen Hu Challenges and Opportunities of ENSO Prediction (II)

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Session VI:

ENSO Variability

and Predictability

14:00-15:30 Dr. Zengzhen Hu Ocean and ENSO Monitoring and Forecast

at NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center (I)

15:30-15:45 Tea Break

15:45-17:00 Dr. Zengzhen Hu Ocean and ENSO Monitoring and Forecast

at NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center (II)

18:00 Buffet

Tuesday, 15 July 2014

09:00-11:30

Wrap-up Session

- Conclusion Remarks

- Workshop Assessment

- Certificate Awarding

- Photo Distributing

14:00-17:00 Multimedia Course

12:00-14:00 Lunch 19:00 - Dinner

Table of Contents

Winter Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Nepal and Its Relation with ENSO…..……..1

Sunil Kumar Pariyar

Impact of Global Warming on Winter Monsoon Cold Surge over Southeast Asia..…..2

Sasiwimon PORNPRAPAI

Potential Predictability of the Sea-surface Temperature Forced Equatorial East African

Short Rains Interannual Variability in the 20th Century…………………..…………..3

Titike Kassa Bahaga

Prediction of Adverse Climatic Conditions in Archeologically and Agriculturally

Important Areas of Sri Lanka…………………………………………………….……5

D M H S Dissanayake

Comparison and Verification of Different Convective Parameterization Schemes in

Short-range Rainfall Prediction for Off-season Heavy Rainfall over Southern

Thailand…………………………………………………………………………...…...6

Sukrit KIRTSAENG

Transmission of Dengue Based on Urban Environmental Gradients in Four Major

Cities of Pakistan………………………………………………………………………8

Bushra KHALID

Trends in Indices of Daily Climate Extreme Precipitation over Indonesia Peninsula

from Aphrodite Dataset………………………………………………………….….....9

Muhammad YAZID

Influences of the Pacific-Japan Teleconnection Pattern on Synoptic-scale Variability

in the Western North Pacific………………………………………………………….11

Richard C. Y. LI

Evaluation of Reanalysis, Spatially-interpolated and Satellite Precipitation Datasets

over Central Asia……………………………………………………………………..13

Zengyun Hu

Estimation of Climate Extreme Indices and Their Trends over Mongolia…………...15

Davaanyam Enkhbaatar

Performance of Three Selected Convective Schemes for Predicting Indian Summer

Monsoon Rainfall Using RegCM4.4…………………………………………….…...16

AKM Saiful Islam

Consequences of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability on Rice Cultivation in

Bangladesh………………………………………………………………………..….18

Md Shafiqul BARI

Farmers’ Perception on Asian Monsoon Variability and Its Impact on Livelihood in

Northern Bangladesh…………………………………………………………………20

Md Abu HANIF

Sensitivity of South Asian CORDEX Monsoon to Cumulus Convection Using

RegCM4…………………………………………………………………...…………22

Suman MAITY

Modeling the Rainfall Vulnerability and Predictability in Pakistan: Simulation and

Field Study...……………………………………………………………………..…..24

Wajid Nasim

Empirical Ortrhogonal Function Analysis of Rainfall Variability over Thailand with

ENSO………………………………………………………………………………...26

Sarinya KIRTPHAIBOON

Impacts of High Spatiotemporal SST on Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall

over Indochina Penninsular Sub-region: A case study…………………………….....27

Kritanai TORSRI

Sea Surface Temperature Variability of Indochinese Peninsula Upwelling Implied by

the Regional Oceanic Modeling System……………………………………………. 29

Worachat WANNAWONG

Review on Spring Persistent Barrier in ENSO Predicting………………………...…31

Paxson King Yeung Cheung

Impact of Indian Summer Monsoon on Agricultural Drought and Food Security in

India…………………………………………………………………………………..32

Reshmita NATH

The Performance of REGional Climate Model (RegCM) over South/East Asia…….34

SHAUKAT ALI

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper Blue Nile

Basin………………………………………………………………………………….36

Lakemariam Yohannes Worku

The Dynamic Driving Mechanism of Indian Summer Monsoon during the Last

Millennium…………………………………………………………………………...38

Yuxia LI

Proceedings of 2014 ICCES International Training Workshop on “Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability”

1

Winter Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Nepal and Its Relation with

ENSO

Sunil Kumar Pariyar*, Mani Ratna Shakya

Department of Environment Science and Engineering, School of Science, Kathmandu University

Abstract

The winter rainfall in Nepal is mainly affected by large scale weather disturbances

and has completely different dynamically features as compared with the summer

season. Most of the previous researches are mainly focused on the summer monsoon

rainfall over Nepal and studies on winter monsoon are still limited. Thus, it is

important to understand the spatial and temporal variation of winter rainfall over

Nepal on a climatological perspective. This paper aims to investigate the

characteristic feature of winter rainfall in Nepal from 1980 to 2007 and establish a

relationship between ENSO and winter rainfall in Nepal by using ERA-Interim and

APHORDITE reanalysis data set. The spatial distribution of DJF rainfall over Nepal

shows high rainfall in the western to central Nepal with gradual increase from east to

west. The correlation analysis between all Nepal winter rainfall and Nino3.4 shows

negative correlation of -0.26, however the relation is not consistent over time. Further,

the winter rainfall in Nepal is positively correlated with westerly index with

statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.34. The composite rainfall analysis

for different El Nino (1981, 1988, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2007) and La Nina

(1982, 1986, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2004) years reveals above (below)

normal rainfall during La Nina (El Nino) years. This is possible due to strengthening

(weakening) of 550hPa westerly flow during La Nina (El Nino) years. Similarly, the

moist air advection is suppressed (enhanced) during El Nino (La Nina) years resulting

into significant variation on winter rainfall over Nepal.

_______________

*Email: [email protected]


2

Impact of Global Warming on Winter Monsoon Cold Surge over

Southeast Asia

Sasiwimon PORNPRAPAI1*, Dusadee SUKAWAT

2

1 Department of Mathematics, Ubon Ratchathani Rajabhat University, Ubon Ratchathani 34000,

Thailand

2 Department of Mathematics, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok

10140, Thailand

Abstract

The main cause of monsoon is the different in temperature between continent and

ocean. Global warming could modify this pattern of temperature difference, which

may have effect on Southeast Asian winter monsoon. The important characteristic of

the winter monsoon is cold surge. This research analyzes the cold surge over

Southeast Asia under climate change scenarios. The data for present climate are from

the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Thai

Meteorological Department. The analyses of the impact of global warming are based

on the data from the prediction of the climate model Bjerknes Centre for Climate

Research (BCCR) Bergen Climate Model (BCM) Version 2.0 (BCCM-BCR2.0). The

analyses are done by comparing the characteristics of monsoons for the case in which

there is continuous increase in carbon dioxide (A2 scenario) with the case of fixed

carbon dioxide (Commit scenario). Results of the analyses of present climate show

that the intensity of cold surge depends on the strength of Siberian High, position and

velocity of polar jet while the path way of cold surge depends on the position of upper

trough and position of Pacific High. The analyses of future climate reveals that there

is no significant difference between A2 and Commit scenarios for the starting date

and interval of the cold surge.

Keywords: Cold Surge, Winter Monsoon, Southeast Asia, Global Warming

_______________



3

Potential Predictability of the Sea-surface Temperature Forced

Equatorial East African Short Rains Interannual Variability in the

20th

Century

T. K. BAHAGA12*

, G. Mengistu Tsidu2 F. Kucharski

2 and G. T. Diro

2

1 Department of Physics, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

2 Earth System Physics Section, the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics,

Trieste,Italy

Abstract

In this article, the predictability of the 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST)

forced East African short rains variability is analyzed using observational data and

ensembles of long atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. To

our knowledge, such an analysis for the whole 20th century using a series of AGCM

ensemble simulations is carried out here for the first time. The physical mechanisms

that govern the influence of SST on East African short rains in the model are also

investigated. It is found that there is substantial skill in reproducing the East African

short rains variability, given that the SSTs are known. Consistent with previous recent

studies, it is found that the Indian Ocean and in particular the western pole of the

Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) play a dominant role for the prediction skill, whereas SSTs

outside the Indian Ocean play a minor role. The physical mechanism for the influence

of the western Indian Ocean on East African rainfall in the model is consistent with

previous findings and consists of a gill-type response to a warm (cold) anomaly that

induces a westerly (easterly) low-level flow anomaly over equatorial Africa and leads

to moisture flux convergence (divergence) over East Africa. On the other hand, a

positive El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) anomaly leads to a spatially

non-coherent reducing effect over parts of East Africa, but the relationship is not

strong enough to provide any predictive skill in our model. The East African short

_______________



4

rains prediction skill is also analyzed within a model-derived potential predictability

framework and it is shown that the actual prediction skill is broadly consistent with

the model potential prediction skill. Low-frequency variations of the prediction skill

are mostly related to SSTs outside the Indian Ocean region and are likely due to an

increased interference of ENSO with the Indian Ocean influence on East African short

rains after the mid-1970s climate shift.


5

Prediction of Adverse Climatic Conditions

In Archeologically and Agriculturally Important Areas of Sri

Lanka

D M H S Dissanayake* and R D S S Ranathunga

Industrial Technology Institute, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Evidence is growing that some weather events are likely to become more frequent,

more widespread and more intense during the last fifty years in Sri Lanka. As a

result, Sri Lankans have being exposed to impacts of the climate change through

changing weather patterns, which directly or indirectly cause changes in water quality

and quantity, ambient air quality, food quality and quantity, ecosystems and

biodiversity, agriculture and post harvest practices, livelihood and infrastructure,

socio-economy, archeological monuments, etc. Adaptation options and adaptation

strategies to reduce the impact of climate change as well as preparedness and response

plans for extreme weather events, in particular for temperature and rainfall, can be

developed after analyzing historical metrological and climate data. Four Districts of

Sri Lanka having agricultural, archaeological and irrigational importance; namely

Kurunagala, Anuradapura, Badulla and Kandy were selected for this study. Thirty

year metrological and climate data including rainfall, maximum temperature and

minimum temperature were collected for all selected Districts. The extreme climatic

conditions are identified by application of statistical software tools. In addition, trend

analysis was done to forecast future extreme events.

_______________



6

Comparison and Verification of Different Convective

Parameterization Schemes in Short-range Rainfall Prediction for

Off-season Heavy Rainfall over Southern Thailand

Sukrit KIRTSAENG1*

, Supap KIRTSAENG 2, Pattara SUKTHAWEE

1,

Fatah MASTHAWEE

1 Meteorological Development Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Bangkok, Thailand

2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Nakhon Pathom,

Thailand

Abstract

In recent years, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) plays an important role in

short-range rainfall predictions. These can be defined as predictions of no longer than

one week in advance. The atmospheric physical parameters have been continuously

developed for the NWP. These parameters are implemented into NWP models based

on equations derived from theoretical assumptions based on observations and physics

of the event. On this respect, physics of clouds gives rise to various equations for

implementation of parameters into the NWP. These various methods of

implementation are called Cumulus Parameterization schemes (CP). The choice of CP

scheme used has to be properly chosen based on both the type of forecast and the

forecast location.

This study investigates the use of two CP schemes, namely, Grell- Freitas (GF) and

Grell-Devenyi (GD), in the latest version (3.5) of Weather Research and Forecasting

(WRF) model. The study focuses on heavy rainfall caused by cold surge and

near-equatorial through during the pre-monsoon (March-April) of 2011, 2012, and

2013 in the east coast of southern Thailand. The rarity of the heavy rainfall during the

pre-monsoon makes it an appealing object of investigation.

_______________



7

Using the initial conditions preceding the heavy rainfall events, 24, 48, and 72

forecasts were simulated using the WRF with two different schemes. The performance

of the schemes was measured by the comparison with observed rainfall data from

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Thai Meteorological Department.

The result shows that both schemes overestimate the rainfall amount with the forecast

from the GD being higher than that of the GF scheme. The statistical indicators used

to compare the performance of the two schemes include hit rate, critical success index

(CSI), equitable threat score (ETS), and POD CSI. All the statistical indicators

support the finding that the GF scheme has a higher performance than the GD scheme

when used in off-season rainfall forecasts over the east coast of southern Thailand.

Keywords: Grell-Freitas schemes, cumulus parameterization, cold surge, offseason

heavy rainfall, WRF model


8

Transmission of Dengue Based on Urban Environmental Gradients

in Four Major Cities of Pakistan

Bushra KHALID* and Abdul GHAFFAR

Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology,

Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract

The study is related to the Dengue transmission in four major cities of Pakistan. For

this purpose, the data of Dengue cases for the years 2009-2012 of Rawalpindi,

Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi is collected, evaluated and compiled. To identify the

reasons and regions of higher risk of Dengue transmission, landuse classification,

analysis of climate covariates and drainage patterns was done. The analysis involves

processing of SPOT-5 10 meter, Landsat-TM 30 meter data sets, and SRTM 90 meter

Digital Elevation Models by using Remote Sensing and GIS techniques. The results

are based on the change in urbanization and population density, analysis of

temperature, rainfall and wind speed particularly during the summer monsoon season;

calculation of drainage patterns including stream features, flow accumulation and

drainage density of the study areas. Results suggest that the low elevation areas with

calm winds and higher than the normal minimum temperatures during the summer

monsoon season, rapid increase in unplanned urbanization, low flow accumulation

and higher drainage density areas favor the Dengue transmission.

_______________



9

Trends in Indices of Daily Climate Extreme Precipitation over

Indonesia Peninsula from Aphrodite Dataset

Muhammad YAZID12

*, Usa HUMPHRIES1, Atsamon LIMSAKUL

3,

Prungchan WONGWISES1, Angkool WANGWONGCHAI

1, Triyono SUDARMADJI

2

1 King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand

2 Mulawarman University,Samarinda, Indonesia

3 Ministry of Natural Resources, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

Uncertainty of monsoons has resulted to climate variability and disastrous floods in

Indochina Peninsula countries during the recent decade. Historical analysis of extreme

precipitation is needed to design mitigation strategies. The specific goal of this study

is to provide the description of the extreme precipitation phenomena based on

statistics that focused on the existence of trends in extreme precipitation indices and

characteristic of its distribution. The trends were obtained from high-quality grid

precipitation data compiled by Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational

Data Integration towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) over

Indochina Peninsula (4°-25°N and 90°-112°E).The indices were selected from the list

of climate change indices recommended by World Meteorological

Organization-Commission for Climatology (WMO-CCI) and the research program on

climate variability and predictability (CLIVAR). The indices based on variable namely,

consecutive wet day (>1 mm), consecutive dry day (<1 mm), number of days with

precipitations>10mm, one-day highest precipitation, annual total wet-day

precipitation, simple daily intensity index, and very wet day. These indices were

measured by calculating different aspects of extreme characteristics based on wetness

and dryness condition, frequency, and intensity. Linear trends were calculated by least

squares fitting and significant or non-significant trends were identified using

Mann-Kendall test. The result revealed contrasting trends of extreme rainfall in the

_______________



10

East and West of Indochina Peninsula. In the Eastern part, most of Vietnam coast

experienced the increasing number of wet day, very wet day, and highest precipitation

with some grids indicating significant trends. These events are correlated with

Northeast Monsoon that influences the Indochina Peninsula in October to February.

While in the western part mostly experienced declining trend in total rainfall index

with some grids indicating significant trends correlated with the declining number of

wet days and rainfall days.

Keywords: Indochina, Extremes Precipitation, Indices, Monsoon


11

Influences of the Pacific-Japan Teleconnection Pattern on

Synoptic-scale Variability in the Western North Pacific

Richard C. Y. LI1*, Wen ZHOU

1, Tim LI

2

1 Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center, School of Energy and Environment, City

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

2 International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at

Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Abstract

This study investigates the influences of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern

on synoptic-scale variability (SSV) in the Western North Pacific (WNP). The PJ

pattern exhibits salient intraseasonal variations, with a dominant peak at 10–50 days.

During positive PJ phases, strengthened SSV is found in the WNP, with a much

stronger and better-organized synoptic wave train structure. Such a synoptic-scale

wave train, however, is greatly weakened during negative PJ phases. Examination of

the vertical profiles of the observational data suggests that environmental parameters

are generally more (less) favorable for the growth of synoptic disturbances under

positive (negative) PJ conditions.

Observational results are further verified with an anomaly atmospheric general

circulation model, which reveals faster (slower) growth of the synoptic-scale wave

train when the environmental anomalies associated with positive (negative) PJ phases

are incorporated into the summer mean state of the model. In addition, sensitivity

experiments indicate that thermodynamic parameters of the planetary boundary layer

(PBL) play a determining role in controlling the development of synoptic disturbances

in the WNP. The increase (decrease) in background PBL moisture during positive

(negative) PJ phases enhance (suppress) perturbation moisture convergence and thus

the convective heating associated with SSV, leading to strengthened (weakened)

_______________



12

synoptic-scale activity in the WNP. Serving as potential seed disturbances for

cyclogenesis, the strengthened (weakened) synoptic-scale activity may also contribute

to the enhancement (suppression) in intraseasonal TC frequency during positive

(negative) PJ phases.


13

Evaluation of Reanalysis, Spatially-interpolated and Satellite

Precipitation Datasets over Central Asia

Zengyun Hu1,2*

, Chi Zhang1

1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,

Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

2 College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830011, China

Abstract

Accurate precipitation data are important for climate and environmental research in

the dryland of Central Asia. Although multiple gridded datasets developed with

various (spatial-interpolation, climate reanalysis, or remote sensing) methods are

available, their accuracy and suitability for this arid and semiarid region, which

locates in the center of Eurasia inland and is characterized with complex topography,

are still unclear. In this study, a spatially-interpolated dataset developed by the

Willmott, C. J. and K. Matsuura (WM), a satellite-retrieved dataset developed by the

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42) project, and three climate

reanalysis datasets, including the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR),

ERA-Interim, and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis (MERRA), were evaluated

against gauge observations from 399 meteorological stations in Central Asia. Both

temporal and spatial patterns were investigated. The results show that (1) On the

whole, WM has the best performance with the observed precipitation (OBS), followed

by MERRA performs much better than the other two reanalysis datasets. With

correlation coefficient of 0.71, it matches the accuracy of WM. CFSR performs the

worst, having the lowest CC (0.41) and the largest RMSE (529.5 mm a-1) among all

datasets. (2) WM underestimates the OBS at all the time scales (monthly, seasonal and

annual) . TRMM overestimates summer and winter precipitation and underestimates

spring and fall precipitation. Reanalysis datasets overestimate precipitation in all

_______________



14

seasons. (3) All datasets perform worse in mountain areas than in plain. WM

significantly underestimates the precipitation and has much low correlation with

observations in mountain areas than in the plain (mountain vs. plain: absolute

difference against observation is -86.5 mm a-1 vs. 6.4 mm a-1, CC is 0.49 vs. 0.76).

But TRMM maintains high CC (0.74) even in mountain areas.


15

Estimation of Climate Extreme Indices and Their Trends over

Mongolia

Davaanyam Enkhbaatar*, Buyantogtokh Batjargal

Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Environment

Abstract

The climate of Mongolia is harsh continental with sharply defined seasons, high

annual and diurnal temperature fluctuations and low rainfall. Because high altitude

and latitude, it is generally colder than of other countries of the same altitude. The

main aim of this study is to determine the annual air temperature variations and

extreme temperature event in Mongolia by using ETCCDMI (Expert Team for

Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices).

In this study the RClimdex 1.0 software was used to obtain the climatic indices.

RClimdex provides 27 indices in total (including temperature and precipitation

indices). Only 15 indices based on air temperature observation data were chosen for

discussion that better explain the climate behavior of Mongolia.

Last fifty year in Mongolia, number of hot day (su25) increased by 30 days (with

statistic confident, p<0.05) and number of cold day ( fd0 ) decreased 16 days (with

statistic confident p<0.05). In terms of geographical distribution, in general, number

of the hot days increased over all, particularly noticeable increase in center parts of

the country. But number of cold days are decreased over all, specially in the center

parts of the country is more noticeable.

_______________



16

Performance of Three Selected Convective Schemes for Predicting

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using RegCM4.4

AKM Saiful Islam*

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and

Technology (BUET), Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Abstract

Capturing Indian summer monsoon precipitation using climate model is always a

challenging task. Moreover, it is also evident from various studies that the

characteristics of monsoon also changing over this region during the last decade. One

of the big issues of monsoon prediction lies on selecting appropriate convective

scheme and land surface. A higher resolution (50km) regional climate model

developed by International Center of theoretical Physics (ICTP) has been simulated

over the Indian domain (600E to 100

0E and 0

0N to 40

0N) using boundary condition of

ERA Interim reanalysis data sets. Monsoon season of 1998 when heavy floods

occurred in the Bengal delta region, was selected as analysis period. Grell (1993),

MIT-Emanuel (Emanuel 1991) and Tiedtke (1993) cumulus convective schemes are

compared for estimating precipitations over land and ocean. Large scale precipitation

scheme SUBEX (Pal et al. 2000), boundary layer scheme from University of

Washington (O’Brien et al. 201), ocean flux scheme by Zeng (Zeng et al. 1998),

radiation scheme NCAR CCM3 (Kiehl et al. 1996) are used for simulating

RegCM4.4. Land surface scheme BATS (Dickinson et al. 1993) and CLM4.5 (Oleson

et al. 2008; Steiner et al. 2009) are also compared. RegCM4.4 simulated precipitation

has been compared with observed prediction from CRU3.1 gridded data set.

It has been found that Grell convective schemes are performing better than other two

schemes (MIT-Emanuel and Tiedtke) for estimation of land precipitation. On the other

_______________



17

hand, the new CLM4.5 land surface scheme is found providing more stability and

accuracy than BATS scheme. However, results found from this study needs further

validation with extended simulation over this region.


18

Consequences of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability on Rice

Cultivation in Bangladesh

Md Shafiqul BARI1*

, Md Abu HANIF1 and Md Shafiqul Islam SIKDAR

2

1 Department of Agroforestry and Environment, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and

Technology University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh

2 Department of Agronomy, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University,

Dinajpur, Bangladesh

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of rice production linked to the Indian

summer monsoon variability in Bangladesh. It also discusses the possible strategies

for using knowledge and prediction of monsoon variability to enhance rice production.

Rice is the major food crop of Bangladesh and her food security is dependent on rice

production status. But rice cultivation in Bangladesh is seriously affected by the

anomalous Indian summer monsoon. The impact of the Indian summer monsoon on

the rice production is massive, because rainfall pattern is the most important limiting

factor for rice production. In this paper, it was tried to explore the understanding of

the nature of the variability of the Indian summer monsoon on different timescales

and the enhanced ability of its prediction which can contribute to the reduction of the

negative impacts of monsoon variability and/or enhancement of the positive impacts

on rice production. As a case study, the Barind tract of Bangladesh was selected which

is the most vulnerable to the anomalous Indian summer monsoon. In the study, it was

found that there is a strong link to interannual variation of monsoon and rice

production in Bangladesh. Rice farmers largely rely on rain-fed cropping but face

problems of late transplanting of Aman rice when the monsoon is delayed or low

yields when drought sets in during the booting stage of the rice in October. The most

significant impacts of monsoon variability are borne by small-holder rice farmers who

constitute the majority of farmers in Bangladesh. The study also revealed that there is

_______________



19

a pressing need to enhance understanding of Indian summer monsoon variability and

predictability for the different stakeholders of rice cultivation. Improved monitoring,

modeling, prediction and adaptation practices to cope with inconsistent monsoon

variability could help to reduce the monsoon-induced yield loss of rice in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Indian monsoon, Rice cultivation, Bangladesh, Monsoon variability


20

Farmers’ Perception on Asian Monsoon Variability and Its Impact on

Livelihood in Northern Bangladesh

Md Abu HANIF1*

, Md Shafiqul BARI1, Md Faruq HASAN

2 and Hasan JAMIL

3

1 Department of Agroforestry and Environment, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and


2 Department of Agricultural Extension, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology

University, Dinajpur, Bangladesh

3 Department of Social Science and Language, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and


Abstract

This paper reports on findings from 6 focus group discussions and 30 key informant

interviews conducted in 2 districts of Bangladesh in May 2013. The discussions and

interviews draw attention on farmers’ perceptions of asian monsoon and how

monsoon-related variability influence people’s livelihoods, both directly and

indirectly. The findings also identify how people adapt to and cope with these changes.

This paper aims to improve the understanding of farmers’ perceptions of these

changes, exploring the ways to cope them, and how well they are adaptive to these

changes. The findings showed that most respondents had a clear understanding of

what was directly affecting their livelihoods. However, the respondents were less able

to understand differences between monsoon variability and climate change or the

causes of the trends they observed. The respondents reported that adaptation allowed

them to cope with declining groundwater levels for agriculture and domestic use,

hotter weather, reduced and unpredictable rainfall at pick times of the year, more

intense extreme weather events such as storms, cyclones, floods, and tornados.

Farmers expressing concern about being able to afford to irrigate in dry-season crops

because of the lowering of the ground water table, variability in rainfall and the

associated decline in river, pond and, swamp levels. Adaptation and coping varied

according to location, livelihood, and the assets and endowments people have at their

_______________



21

possession. They report changed cropping patterns due to variability in monsoon

households formerly supported by agriculture were moving into small, nonagricultural

businesses or migrating to urban centers or internationally. Households with low

incomes and few assets are the most vulnerable. There are opportunities for

strengthening group activities to help vulnerable households cope with new monsoon

related changes, particularly, new crops and cropping patterns, extreme climate events,

ensuring access to domestic and agricultural resources.

Keywords: Bangladesh, Monsoon variability, Livelihood, Vulnerability


22

Sensitivity of South Asian CORDEX Monsoon to Cumulus

Convection Using RegCM4

Suman MAITY1*

, Manobattam MANDAL2, Sridhara NAYAK

3

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,

Kharagpur, West Bengal, India.

Abstract

The South Asian CORDEX Monsoon (SAM) is an important part of circulation

process in the tropics, driven by large scale convection and its simulation is expected

to depend on suitable choice of cumulus convection scheme. Experiments are

conducted to investigate the sensitivity of SAM to cumulus scheme in simulating

SAM for three years 2007, 2008 and 2009. RegCM4 is integrated for the period 1st

May to 30th September in these three years at 30 km resolution. Three experiments

using convection schemes viz. Kuo, Grell and MIT are conducted for each year. The

data for initial and boundary conditions of the model are derived from NNRP1 data at

2.5˚×2.5˚ resolution. The geo-physical parameters viz. topography and land use are

obtained from USGS global data at 10 minutes resolution. The Sea Surface

Temperature (SST) in model initial condition is taken from NOAA Optimum

Interpolation (OI) data at 1˚×1˚ resolution.

Low level westerly jet, upper level easterly jet, heat low, tibetan high etc. are analyzed

and compared with the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Simulated rainfall is compared with

GPCP at 2.5˚×2.5˚ datasets. In all the years, the model shows warm bias over

Northwest India using MIT scheme. Westerly jet and tropical easterly jet is better

simulated by the model with MIT scheme than other two schemes. The strength of the

westerly jet simulated by the model is slightly weaker than that observed in the NCEP

reanalysis. Seasonal average rainfall is not well simulated by the model. In particular

_______________



23

the precipitation over central and western India is significantly under predicted by the

model with all the schemes. Analyzing the spatial correlation and standard error over

seasonal scale, the precipitation is better simulated by the model using Kuo scheme.

Considering the overall performance, the KUO scheme is better than MIT and Grell

scheme.

Keywords: SAM, RegCM4, Convection schemes.


24

Modeling the Rainfall Vulnerability and Predictability in Pakistan:

Simulation and field study

Wajid Nasim 1, 2*

, Ashfaq Ahmad 2, Ghulam Rasool

3, Kalim Ullah

4

1 Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT),

Vehari-61100, Pakistan

2 Agro-climatology Laboratory, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture,

Faisalabad-38040, Pakistan

3 Pakistan Meteorological Department. Islamabad-44000-Pakistan

4 Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT),

Islamabad-44000, Pakistan

Abstract

Agriculture is backbone of Pakistan and major part of agriculture is reliant on

irrigation through the rivers especially Indus river.. The monsoon precipitation is the

salvation of Pakistan that provides the country power system and water for the

agricultural crops. The focus of the present study was to evaluate the performance of

the OILCROP-SUN model and to determine the effect nitrogen (N) on sunflower for

three contrasting environments differing in weather parameters (precipitation,

temperature and solar radiation). To study the impact of weather extremes (especially

precipitation and Nitrogen fertilizer) on grain yield and quality of sunflower crops,

several field experiments were conducted in different agro-climatic conditions.

Results show that the OILCROP-SUN model successfully simulates the growth and

yield of sunflower hybrids during the three contrasting environments. In general, arid

condition was the hottest site (Multan region) during both spring seasons(). In this site,

maximum temperatures and minimum precipitation was observed (during the year

2009) as compared to other experimental location. While in semi-arid area especially

in Faisalabad region the climatic condition was found to be medium and sub humid

area in Gujranwala region it was considered as cooler with minimum temperature and

maximum precipitation especially during the year 2008. Maximum precipitation was

_______________



25

recorded during the spring 2008 than the spring 2009 particularly in the growing

seasons. Furthermore, arid climate had low precipitation (55.82 mm) than the

semi-arid (140 mm) as well as sub-humid (263 mm) during the year 2008. In 2009,

precipitation was recorded 28.20 mm, 73.80 mm and 106.7 mm in the arid, semi-arid

and sub-humid areas, respectively. From the analysis of simulated results, It can be

concluded that, model successfully performed simulation of LAI, TDM, grain yield

and oil quality under different climatic conditions of Pakistan. Furthermore, the model

did not predict any impact of precipitation change on phenology of sunflower crop

because the crop was grown under non limiting water/irrigated conditions at all the

experimental locations of Punjab province, Pakistan but it predicts the impact on

growth and final crop yield in various agro-climates of Pakistan.

Keywords: Crop Models; Rainfall Vulnerability & Predictability; Nitrogen;

Sunflower Crop; Punjab-Pakistan.


26

Empirical Ortrhogonal Function Analysis of Rainfall Variability over

Thailand with ENSO

Sarinya KIRTPHAIBOON1*, Usa HUMPHRIES

2, Prungchan WONGWISES

1,

Atsamon LIMSAKUL3, Sirapong SOOKTAWEE

3

1 The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of

Technology Thonburi, Thailand

2 Department of Mathematics, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Thailand

3 Environmental Research and Training Center, Department of Environmental Quality Promotion,

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Thailand.

Abstract

This study aimed to use the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) technique to

analyze the monthly rainfall data of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre

(GPCC) over Thailand during 1971 to 2010. This technique based on a linear

transformation to extract information from the large data sets by decomposing to the

orthogonal basis function while retaining as much as possible of the variations present

in the data sets. The most dominant mode explained 21.6% of the total variance. To

interpret between the spatial pattern and the time series, it was found that the rainfall

variability over Thailand can be linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

events. There was low rainfall in the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño phenomenon)

whereas there was high rainfall in the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña phenomenon).

Keywords: EOF; GPCC; Rainfall over Thailand; ENSO; El Niño; La Niña

_______________



27

Impacts of High Spatiotemporal SST on Prediction of Summer

Monsoon Rainfall over Indochina Penninsular Sub-region:

A Case Study

Kritanai TORSRI1*, Worachat WANNAWONG

1, Kanoksri SARINNAPAKORN

1,

Surajate BOONYA-AROONNET1, Royol CHITRADON

1

1 Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute, Ministry of Science and Technology, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

Performance of a coupling modeling system in predicting summer monsoon rainfall

over Indochina Peninsula (IP) sub-region was investigated. The coupling was

coupling between an atmosphere model component, Weather Research and

Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, and an oceanic model, Regional Oceanic Model

System (ROMS), integrated in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment

Transport (COAWST) modeling system. To explore whether the coupling technique

could potentially improve rainfall prediction, intercomparison among a coupled

WRF-ROMS experiment and two decoupled WRF experiments (i.e., a nonupdated

SST and a prescribed daily real-time global (RTG) SST experiment) were carried out.

In WRF-ROMS, exchanges of momentum and heat fluxes between the 2 models were

allowed every 10 minutes and controlled by a flux-conservative remapping scheme

embedded in the COAWST system and identical WRF physics and dynamic options

were employed for all experiments with a horizontal (vertical) resolution of 27 km (27

layers), while ROMS used a 25 km horizontal (vertical) resolution (16 layers). To

initialize the ocean states, outputs of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

were used while WRF model was driven by 6- hourly NCEP Final Analysis (FNL)

dataset. It has been acknowledged that in the year of 2011, rainfall during summer

monsoon over IP sub-region was extremely critical. To statistically quantify rainfall

prediction, simulations were therefore carried out covering 25 June-September 2011

_______________



28

and only 3-month (Jul-Aug-Sep) results were used in the analysis since there were

occurrences of intense rainfall events. Besides a common statistic, error in diurnal

variability (IDV) of the model was examined comparing against 2 gridded daily

rainfall data obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The results show that mean bias

(MB) and IDV error (over land) were evidently improved when air-sea coupling was

applied, whereas predicted rainfalls given by non-updated SST and prescribed SST

experiment were comparable.

Keywords: Air-sea coupling, COAWST, Indochina Peninsular, Summer monsoon

rainfall, Interdiurnal variability


29

Sea Surface Temperature Variability of Indochinese Peninsula

Upwelling Implied by the Regional Oceanic Modeling System

Worachat WANNAWONG1*, Kritanai TORSRI

1, Kanoksri SARINNAPAKORN

1, Surajate

BOONYA-AROONNET1, Royol CHITRADON

1

Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute, Ministry of Science and Technology, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

Ocean circulation and temperature in the Indochinese Peninsula (IP) are dominated by

the monsoon. The monsoon currents are seasonally reversing open-ocean currents

flowing between the west Pacific Ocean into the South China Sea and the north Indian

Ocean into the Bay of Bengal. The ocean mixing of overflows from marginal seas is a

key process shaping the structure of ocean upwelling and circulation. This study

explored the dynamic elements of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and coastal

upwelling in the IP using the AVHRR-SST and the Regional Oceanic Modeling

System (ROMS). The ROMS model is used to simulate the regional ocean scales in

the IP in response to atmospheric fields forced by wind stress from the QuickSCAT

(1999-2009), surface fluxes global monthly climatology (COADS05) with the finer

resolution of SST (9.28 km) from the AVHRR-Pathfinder, global river flow and

continental discharge monthly climatology, tidal data from the Oregon State

University (TPXO7), and the World Ocean Atlas 2009 dataset. The ocean simulation

results on climatological scale were compared with the Large-McWilliams-Doney KP

profile and the Generic Length Scale (GLS) vertical mixing schemes during monsoon

seasons. The simulated SST fields were verified against the AVHRR-SST. Both

schemes were analyzed to characterize the variability and trends of coastal upwelling

in the region. The results confirmed the presence of reversing current system in

response to the changing wind field: the eastward flowing southwest ocean current

_______________



30

during the southwest monsoon, and the westward flowing northeast ocean current

during the northeast monsoon. These results indicated that the observed SST trends

were not only due to changes in the radiation or atmospheric heat fluxes but also due

to changes in upwelling dynamics, suggesting that the process may be relevant in

climate change scenarios. The results also suggested that the best vertical mixing

parameterization was the GLS scheme.

Keywords: Indochinese Peninsula, sea surface temperature, ROMS, upwelling,

monsoon


31

Review on Spring Persistent Barrier in ENSO predicting

Paxson King Yeung Cheung* & Wen Zhou

Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center, School of Energy and Environment,

City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Abstract

Predicting on coming El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) changes has been a great

challenging subject in ENSO study since the 1980s. One of the major difficulty in

ENSO prediction is introduced by Spring Persistent Barrier (SPB). This sharing is

going to introduce some known properties of the SPB, including some nature of SPB

and its impact on different ENSO forecasting schemes. For dynamical model, some

studies suggest that error in model's ocean wind response may be the origin of SPB.

For statistical model, SPB may be introduced by low autocorrelation of ENSO related

parameters during and before spring.

_______________



32

Impact of Indian Summer Monsoon on Agricultural Drought and

Food Security in India

Reshmita NATH1, 2*

, Xuefeng CUI2 , Wen CHEN

1

1 Center for Monsoon System Research (CMSR), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese

Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

2 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global

Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Abstract

India is a highly populated country and ranks second in the world after China with a

capacity of 1.2 billion. Along with population growth, diet diversification and

urbanization, induced by economic reforms impart excessive pressure on food

demand of the country. However, the land is limited to overcome this pressure and the

situation get worsen due to occasional failure of Indian monsoon and occurrence of

severe drought events. Drought is a natural phenomenon and it has a significant

impact on economy, agriculture and environment of the country. In India, where

agriculture is mainly dependent on monsoon rainfall, had experienced severe droughts

in the recent past. The frequent occurrence of drought in India is due to poor and

delayed monsoon, abnormally high summer-temperature and insufficient water

resources. Agricultural drought occurs when rainfall and soil moisture are inadequate

during the crop growing season i.e. it has a close association with meteorological

drought also. In this study, we have utilized NOAA NDVI and Vegetation Health

Index (VHI) to characterize the agricultural drought in India from 1982-2013 based

on Kogan, 2002. We have found a significant impact of Indian summer monsoon

rainfall on vegetation health and strong negative anomaly in monsoon precipitation

coincides with poor health of the vegetation. Interestingly, all the severe droughts

years in India are the EL Nino years. During EL Nino years the normal Hadley

_______________



33

circulation weakens and the rain belt shifted eastward and a drought like condition

prevails over India. Although, droughts are also frequent in the La Nina years but are

moderate in intensity. Therefore, in our present analysis we mainly focus on the

impact of Indian monsoon on agriculture, which adversely affected the production of

major food crops and increases the land demand of the country. With long term

dataset we also aimed to quantify the role of ENSO on agricultural drought in India.

Keywords: drought, agriculture, VHI, ENSO, India


34

The Performance of REGional Climate Model (RegCM) over

South/East Asia

SHAUKAT ALI *

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

Abstract

This study presents the sensitivity of Convective Parameterization Schemes (CPSs) in

a REGional Climate Model(RegCM) over East/South Asia. First, recent studies on

CPSs were summarized to recommend Grell scheme for South Asia, Emanuel for East

Asia and both(Grell and Emanuel) for Southeast Asia due to the equal effect. In our

study, RegCM is able to properly reproduce the circulation of East/South Asian

monsoon. However, the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by

region and seasonality. Over Western Ghats, Bay of Bengal and Southeast of China,

Grell scheme exhibited the least Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values compared to

observed data. Moreover, Emanuel over Land and Grell over Ocean (ELGO) enhance

the simulation of summer precipitation, in comparison with any single CPS

(Grell/Emanuel) over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka and Southeast of India. Over

Huang-Huai-Hai(3H) and Tibetan Plateau(TP) of China, Tiedtke scheme simulates

summer precipitation with higher correlation (0.6-0.85) and its standardized deviation

is close to one while it produces warm bias in troposphere and near surface. Tiedtke

scheme reproduces minimum convective precipitation bias of 8mm day-1 and least

RMSE values throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, Tiedtke shows

closer agreement with observed data for seasonal variation of precipitation over 3H

and TP. However, none of the CPSs is able to capture the seasonal variation over

North Pakistan (NP). The RMSE values are high for summer monsoon precipitation

and winter temperature. In comparison with previous research, our results support

Grell scheme over South Asia, however, it recommends newly implemented Tiedtke

_______________



35

scheme for 3H, TP and NP, contradicting the results of recent studies.


36

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper

Blue Nile Basin

Lakemariam Yohannes Worku*

National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia,

P. O. Box 1090 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events are major problems in Ethiopia with the resulting floods that

usually could cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, infrastructure,

disruption to human activities, loss of property, loss of lives and disease outbreak. The

aim of this study was to explore the likely changes of precipitation extreme changes

due to future climate change. The study specifically focuses to understand the future

climate change impact on variability of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency in Upper

Blue Nile basin. Precipitations data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) have

been used in the study are HadCM3 and CGCM3. Rainfall frequency analysis was

carried out to estimate quantile with different return periods. Probability Weighted

Method (PWM) selected estimation of parameter distribution and L-Moment Ratio

Diagrams (LMRDs) used to find the best parent distribution for each station.

Therefore, parent distributions for derived from frequency analysis are Generalized

Logistic (GLOG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma & Pearson III (P3)

parent distribution. After analyzing estimated quantile simple disaggregation model

was applied in order to find sub daily rainfall data. Finally the disaggregated rainfall

is fitted to find IDF curve and the result shows in most parts of the basin rainfall

intensity expected to increase in the future. As a result of the two GCM outputs, the

study indicates there will be likely increase of precipitation extremes over the Blue

Nile basin due to the changing climate. This study should be interpreted with caution

as the GCM model outputs in this part of the world have huge uncertainty.

_______________



37

Keywords: Extreme precipitation, Climate Change, GCM, HadCM3, CGCM3, IDF,

disaggregation


38

The Dynamic Driving Mechanism of Indian Summer Monsoon

during the Last Millennium

Yuxia LI1,2

, Zhenshan LIN1,2

1 The College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

2 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Nanjing,

Jiangsu, China

Abstract

Researches on paleoclimate driving mechanism during the last millennium play a

significant role in understanding the evolution law of the climate system and

predicting the future climate variability. Cave stalagmites δ18O is one of the most

important high-resolution alternative indexes of paleo-monsoon. Jhumar Cave is

located near the town of Jagdalpur in central India, where annual precipitation

variability is dominated by monsoon precipitation. The stalagmites from this cave

record the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) variability. Here we try to explore

quantitatively the driving mechanism of the ISM that Jhumar Cave stalagmite

represents, and we hope that it can provide a scientific approach for deeply

recognizing the ISM system and predicting the future climate variability. The

nonlinear statistical-dynamical inverse model, which combines both the advantages of

the traditional statistical modeling and dynamical modeling, can quantitatively

analyze the dynamical mechanism of the system by making full use of the observation

data. Based on this model, the following results are obtained: 1) The ISM system is a

complex nonlinear dynamic system which is driven by the interaction of the

greenhouse gas (CH4, N2O and CO2) concentration, the Arctic temperature, the total

solar irradiance and so on. 2) The strength of the ISM depends on its strength at the

former moment. 3) ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation play a small role in

affecting the ISM. In general, the greenhouse gases play an important role in driving

the ISM variability.



39

Keywords: Indian Summer Monsoon, driving mechanism, dynamic inversion model,

Jhumar Cave

2014 ICCES International Training Workshop

i

Participants List

SHAUKAT ALI

Institute of Atmospheric Physics,

Chinese Academy of Sciences,

40 Huayan Li, Chaoyang District,



Titike Kassa Bahaga

Department of Physics,

Addis Ababa University,

P.O.Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Email: [email protected]

Md Shafiqul Bari

Department of agroforestry and

environment, Faculty of Agriculture,

Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and

Technology University, Dinajpur 5200,

Bangladesh


Batjargal Buyantogtokh

Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and

Environment, Juulchny Gudamj-5,

Ulaanbaatar-46, 210646 Mongolia


Jinghua Cao

Bureau of International Co-operation,

Chinese Academy of Sciences


Yan Chen

Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Science,

77 Xichang Road, Kunming, China


Bueh Cholaw

International Center for Climate and







Enkhbaatar Davaanyam

Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and

Environment juulchny gudamj-5

Ulaanbaatar-210646, Mongolia


Jiechun Deng

Nanjing University of Information Science

and Technology, No.219, Ningliu Road,

Nanjing, Jiangsu, China


Yihui Ding

National Climate Center, China

Meteorological Administration,

No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street,

Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China


DISSANAYAKE MUDIYANSELAGE

HASANTHIE SANDAREKHA

DISSANAYAKE

Industrial Technology Institute,

P.O. Box 787, 363, Bauddhaloka Mawatha,

Colombo 7, Sri Lanka


ii

Wenhao Dong

Tsinghua University, Beijing, China


Xiao Dong






Shu Fang

Nanjing University, Nanjing, China


Kai Feng




Kece Fei






Xiaojun Guo

Tsinghua University, Beijing, China


Md. Hanif

Department of agroforestry and

environment, Faculty of Agriculture,

Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and

Technology University, Dinajpur 5200,

Bangladesh


Azmat Hayat

Pakistan Meteorological Department,

Sector H-8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan


Zengyun Hu

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and

Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

Urumqi 830011, China


Zeng-zhen Hu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration, 5830 University Research

Court, CPC/NCEP/, 3130, W/NP52, College

Park, MD 20740-3818, USA


Akm Islam

Institute of Water and Flood Management

(IWFM), Bangladesh University of

Engineering and Technology (BUET),

Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh


Bushra Khalid

COMSATS Institute of Information

Technology Islamabad Pakistan,

Department of Meteorology,

Park Road Islamabad Pakistan


Sarinya Kirtphaiboon

King Mongkut’sUniversity of Technology T

honburi, 126 Pracha Uthit Rd., Bang Mod,

Thung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand


SUKRIT KIRTSAENG

Thai Meteorology Department,

Sukhumvit Rd. Bangna, Bangkok, Thailand


Supap Kirtsaeng

Department of Mathematics,

Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University,

Thailand


iii

Edward Lempinen

The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS),

for the advancement of science in

developing countries, Trieste, Italy


Ke Li






Xinyue Li








Yuxia Li

The College of Geography Science, Nanjing

Normal University, China


Renping Lin






Zhaohui Lin








Jian Ling






Riyu Lu

State Key Laboratory of Numerical

Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,



No.40 Huayanli, Chaoyang District,



Suman Maity

Center of Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and

Land Sciences (CORAL),

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,

Kharagpur, West Bengal-721302, India


Doljinsuren Myagmar

Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and

Environment juulchny gudamj-5

Ulaanbaatar-210646, Mongolia


Wajid Nasim

Department of Environmental Sciences,

COMSATS-Institute of Information

Technology (Vehari Campus), Pakistan


Debashis Nath

Center for Monsoon System Research,






iv

Reshmita Nath

Center for Monsoon System Research,






Sunil Kumar Pariyar

Kathmandu University,

P.O.Box – 6250, Dhulikhel, Nepal


Sasiwimon Pornprapai

Department of Mathematics,

Ubon Ratchathani Rajabhat University,

Ubon Ratchathani ,Thailand


Daorina Qi





Ranasinghe Disanayakalage Sherly

Shelton Ranathunga

Industrial Technology Institute,

254A, Arambakanda, Mahena, Horana,

Sri Lanka


Lei Song






Mengqi Tang





Lingfeng Tao

Nanjing University, China


Hong Tao

Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China


Ting Tong








KRITANAI TORSRI

Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute,

8 th Floor, Bangkok Thai Tower, 108

Rangnam Rd., Phayathai, Ratchatewi,

Bangkok 10400, Thailand


Shujing Wan

School of Information Science &

Engineering, Shandong Agricultural

University, Shandong, China


Zhenyu Wang




Worachat Wannawong

Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute,

8 th Floor, Bangkok Thai Tower, 108

Rangnam Rd., Phayathai, Ratchatewi,

Bangkok 10400, Thailand


v

Ziniu Xiao

China Meteorological Administration

Training Centre


Lakemariam Yohannes Worku

National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia,

Bole Road, P. O. Box 1090, Ethiopia


Bingyi Wu

Institute of Climate and Environment,

Chinese Academy of Meteorological

Sciences, Beijing 100081, China


Feng Xue








Dongdong Yan

Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China


Song Yang

School of Environmental Science and

Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University,

No. 135, Xingang Xi Road,

Guangzhou 510275, China


Yang Yang





Muhammad Yazid

King Mongkut’s University of Technology

Thonburi, 126 Pracha Uthit Rd., Bang Mod,

Thung Khru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand


Cheung King Yeung

City University of Hong Kong


Li Cheuk Yin

City University of Hong Kong


Mei Yong

NO.81, Zhao Wuda road, Saihan district,

Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China


Hongqin Zhang

Shandong Agricultural University, Daizong

Road No.61,Taian, Shandong, China


Leying Zhang





Sen Zhao






Jiang Zhu






vi

International Training Workshop on Asian Monsoon Variability and Predictability

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