Climate Variability and Potential Predictability in CFS Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Jan 19, 2016
Climate Variability and
Potential Predictabilityin CFS
Wilbur Y. Chen
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Clim TotalVariance
Diff
MDL
OBS
More > 1. than < 1.
DML
OBS
DIFF
ENSODJFs
NEUTDJFs
MorePositive
More Negative
MDL
OBS
Ratio
ENSODJFs
NEUTDJFs
More
>> 1.
Less > 1.
A
B
A
B
MDL VAR of
ENS Means
Versus
ENS Spreads
VAR of ENS Means
Var of ENSSpreads
Neutral DJFs
ENSO DJFs
Diff
MDL Behavior
MDL VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO
More < 1.
More > 1.
Neut
ENSO
WarmDJFs
Cold DJFs
DIFF
VAR of ENSMeans
VAR of ENSSpreads
MorePosit
MoreNegat
Potential Predictability
VAR of Clim Signal------------------------------------Total VAR (Signal+noise)
ENSODJFs
NeutDJFs
Potential Pred: ENSO vs Neut
Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold