Intelligent Investing’s Weekly Digest April 23, 2017 · December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) 11 | P a g e ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. ©2017,

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Executive Summary

Last week we expected a bottom within 2-3 days, we were unfortunately wrong, as instead the market turned

into a –confused- frog blender swirling around our Fib-based, and the Bradley turn dates, for that week. However,

last week’s “rally” was overlapping, confused, and we therefore continue to expect the market to bottom at

around SPX2300-2280. Likely within the next 5-10 trading days and ideally around early-May before turning higher

to make new ATHs and top around SPX2480-2490 from which an even larger correction than the current one will

unfold. Hence, a buying opportunity for longs is around the corner, but when we start to top in that region profit

taking/reducing long exposures, also for longer term investors, will become prudent.

The hourly chart tells us we can see another spike higher to SPX2370s, but it’s not necessary. IF Thursday’s SPX2361

high was all she wrote, then we can calculate a low in the SPX2300-2280 target zone based on Fib-extensions. Again

in-line with the same target zone we’ve had for almost 2 months now.

The daily and weekly charts continue to look weak, and their respective Technical Indicators (TIs) continue to forecast

lower prices ahead. Support is at SPX2320ish, SPX2300ish, SPX2280ish.

Market breadth remains weak and on a sell; not the set-up that is seen at market turns (surging breadth). Hence: no

turn yet, no need to even consider going long.

Investor sentiment continues to remain in the doldrums continuing to suggest the next big rally –intermediate-v- is

around the corner. It’s just taken a bit longer than expected, but maybe the market really requires nobody to believe

in it before it can rally!?

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Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC

NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. Last week we got caught in the frog blender, but were

able to minimize losses with prudent stops and decision making. Losing trades is part of the game (only on-line

heroes win all trades) and they keep us sharp, humble, and nimble. Currently NPP is net-short and clearly still out

performing all major market indices.

Please contact me or Rus Chao directly ([email protected]) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free!

Please follow NPP on TWTR: @NPPtrades (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time)

Please bookmark NPP’s website: http://northpostpartners.com/ (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there)

*It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal

past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but

does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges.

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Elliot wave updates

Last week the DOW made a new correction low, whereas the S&P500 couldn’t even reach the expected SPX2320 as

it was buoyed by the stronger tech-sector. It got caught in an overlapping advance and has so far topped in the ideal

SPX2361-2382 target zone, which is the 50-76.4% retrace of the prior (green) minor-b (Grey box in Figure 1).

Since figure-1 is very detailed, we provided the insert with just the wave labels and wave length. (Green) 79p long

minor-a consisted of three minute waves: 46-35-68p. Minor-c has so far been 49-32-xx points. Hence, based on

symmetry minute-b can certainly still extend a bit, but not necessarily as it reached the minimum required 50%

retrace of the prior minute-a. Based on this symmetry it is therefore also less like for minute-b to reach the 76.4%

retrace at SPX2382 and more likely it will stay within the 50-61.8% retrace zone: SPX2361-2371.

Hence, short term the market’s next move is a bit unclear, but intermediate term we expect any possible short-term

upside to be sold-off to new lows below SPX2322. In fact, using Fib-extensions –assuming minute-b topped at

SPX2361– we continue to see minute-c of minor-c of intermediate-iv to reach between SPX2300-2280. Nothing has

changed that: see page 2 for our ideal-wave-tracker tables.

Figure 1. SPX 60min chart: minute-b of minor-c may extend, but minor-c still underway to ideally SPX2300-2280.

iii

a: 79p

b: 56p

a: 46p

b: 35p

a: 49p

b: 32p

c=1.382x a

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In one of last week’s updates we gave downside targets using our ideal-wave-tracker tables only to see the maret

rally the next day. Hence, provding these tables again we revised numbers may seem like insanity (doing the same

thing over and over again, expecting a different outcome), but in fact the outcome remains the same. So we are not

insane . Table 1 shows the minor-c of intermediate-iv targets, similarly as before as those waves haven’t changed.

Table 2 shows the minute-c of minor-c of intermediate-iv targets as minute-b has changed. However, clearly we have

again great overlap (see blue and yellow boxes) and SPX2300-2280 remains our ideal target zone. It is currently too

early to tell which we’ll reach.

Table 1: Intermediate-iv targets based on minor waves

Table 2: Intermediate-iv targets based on minute waves of minor waves

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Technical Market update

On Thursday the S&P500 rallied hard, but was unable to close above the 50d SMA nor above the black descending

dotted trend line (see same trend line in figure 1; though it’s red in that chart) leaving much to be desired. We

wanted to bring the orange boxes (back) to your attention as ALL important lows since February 2016 are marked

with 3+ big up days in a row (and surging market breadth). We got –again- neither this time. The recent A.I. signals

all remain non-ideal and the flip-flopping between signals (green and red dotted arrows) clearly mean one thing:

correction ongoing. A red day on Monday will give a non-ideal sell-signal, adding weight to the evidence that (grey)

minute-b of (green) minor-c topped at SPX2361.

Figure 2. SPX daily chart. Price lost support and all TIs are pointing down: more downside to be expected.

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The weekly chart of the S&P500 continues to be weak as well –i.e. mostly down pointing- TIs: the weekly A.I. remains

on a sell, and will likely turn back up on a weekly close >SPX2380. The MACD sell-signal from 2 weeks ago continues

as well: weakness short term, but not long term (see blue vertical lines). Support is at the 20w SMA: SPX2317. Note,

the weekly SMAs are still bullishly aligned: all are pointing up and all are bullishly stacked (20>50>100>150>200).

Hence, intermediate to long term there will be more upside (see next page for a revisit of our price targets).

Figure 3. SPX weekly TI chart. All TIs point down, A.I. and MACD remain on a “sell”: lower prices should be expected.

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Market breadth

The McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPX-MO) continued to remain weak throughout the week and ended the week

–again- in the red. The SPXMO has not ended a week green since March 1. The bears are in charge. Period! As such

the SPX-SI (summation index of the SPX-MO) remains on a sell, albeit being oversold per its RSI14, but there’s no

turn in site, so no need to bet on the long side yet. We need –strong surging– positive market breadth to signal the

low is in and have the SPX-SI turn back up. Until then: down it is.

Figure 4. SPX-MO remains weak, ending its 7th consecutive week red. As such the SPX-SI remains on a sell.

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However, the weekly NYAD (advancing/declining issues) made another new closing high last week, continuing to

strongly suggesting that the current correction is just that: a correction. This is in line with our preferred POV of the

market longer term.

Figure 6. Weekly NYAD: new closing high. Any correction will be just that: a correction

Daily and weekly chart’s TIs remain weak and market breadth hasn’t confirmed an important low is in and

neither has price. We need to see both surge for 3+ days. This hasn’t happened.

Hence, the weight of the evidence continues to tell us to look lower intermediate term, and higher long term.

Short term we can expect more chop: it’s a 4th wave none-theless.

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Miscellaneous

Our long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long term investing) continues

to be 100% bullish: the long term trend remains up; even with the current over a month long correction, which has

not changed this chart at all (see also 2014 for example). As such this chart also continues to support our overall

view of the market and where it will head over the next several months: higher. Our short term chart (ST-SMA, for

traders to swing traders) remains at 40% bullish, supporting the ongoing correction.

Figure 6. LT-SMA chart 100% bullish ST-SMA chart 40% Bullish.

Below is how a 100% bullish chart look likes, everything points up. Price > fastest SMAs > slowest SMAs.

After the spike to 0.96 at the SPX2329 close, the $CPCE (equities only put/call ratio), a contrarian indicator at extreme

levels (>0.90 bottom close, <0.50 top close) moved back rather fast to the 0.6s. Hence, most traders now expect

continued upside: for each two put being bought there are now 3 calls being bought. The VIX, however, is clearly

trending more up than down.

Figure 7: CPCE back to more calls, VIX up trending.

The “Ebola scare” correction

in 2014 didn’t even register

on the LT chart!

Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed

without permission. www.investingintelligent.com

Copyright Intelligent Investing. May not be distributed

without permission. www.investingintelligent.com

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Fib-based Trading Interval Turn dates & Bradley Turn Dates for 2017

Our next turn date is May 2 for the S&P500 and May 1 for the Dow Jones. The next Bradley turn dates are on

Saturday April 29, and on Friday May 5. All are +/- 2-3 trading days.

January 18 (50/100 Long Terms Power)

January 30 (55/100 Middle Terms Power)

March 20 (100/100 Long Terms Power)

April 3 (31/100 Declinations Power)

April 17 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

April 19 (59/100 Middle Terms Power)

April 29 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power

May 5 (30/100 Declinations Power)

June 9 (61/100 Long Terms Power)

June 21 (100/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

June 30 (100/100 Declinations Power)

July 4 (100/100 Middle Terms Power)

August 19 (17/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

September 5 (17/100 Declinations Power)

September 7 (29/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

October 7 (48/100 Middle Terms Power)

December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power)

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ALOHA

Soul, Ph.D.

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