➢ Fragmented water management according to political rather than catchment boundaries ➢ Climate change: Uncertain water supply and demand (Hassanzadeh et al., 2014; Nazemi & Wheater, 2014) ➢ Structural limitations of existing Water Resources Management Models (Hosseini Safa, 2016) ➢ Water allocation based on ‘first-in-time-first- in-right (FITFIR)’ system (Wenig et al., 2006) ➢ Food security: one of the major sources of water for irrigation (Pomeroy et al., 2009) ➢ No basin-scale water management model is available which can simulate water allocation from Rocky mountains to Saskatchewan Delta. Integrated Water Resources Management in Saskatchewan River Basin: Model Development and Scenario Analysis Syed Mustakim Ali Shah 1 , Saman Razavi 2 , Andrew Slaughter 3 and Howard Wheater 4 1 -M.Sc. Student, Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Email: mustakim.ali@usask. ca 2 -Assistant Professor, Email: [email protected] 3 - Visiting Professor, Email: [email protected] 4 - Professor, Email: [email protected] ; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Canada Study Background Process and Methodology Preliminary Results Future Implications The model, when fully developed, will provide the platform for Economic evaluation of water management policy and uncertainty analysis of demand and supply www.usask.ca/water References 1. Hassanzadeh, E., Elshorbagy, A., Wheater, H., & Gober, P. (2014). Managing water in complex systems: An integrated water resources model for Saskatchewan, Canada. Environmental Modelling & Software, 58, 12-26. 2. Hosseini Safa, H. (2016). Integrated Water Resources Management Modelling For The Oldman River Basin Using System Dynamics Approach: A master’s thesis in Sustainable Environmental Management, University of Saskatchewan, Canada 3. Labadie, J. W. (2006). MODSIM: decision support system for integrated river basin management. 4. Nazemi, A., & Wheater, H. S. (2014). How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems? Advances in water resources, 63, 131-142. 5. Pomeroy, J. W., Fang, X., & Williams, B. (2009). Impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan's water resources. Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan. 6. Wenig, M. M., Kwasniak, A. J., & Quinn, M. S. (2006). Water under the bridge? The role of instream flow needs (IFNs) determinations in Alberta’s river management. In Water: Science and Politics. Edited by H. Epp and D. Ealey. Proceedings of the Conference Held by the Alberta Society of Professional Biologists on March (pp. 25-28). Acknowledgements The Authors deeply thankful to Dr. Howard Wheater, Professor, School of Environment and Sustainability; Dr. Amin A. Elshorbagy, Professor, Civil and Geological Engineering; Dr. James A. Kells, Professor, Civil and Geological Engineering; Dr. Patricia Gober, Professor, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy and Leila Eamen, PhD Student, School of Environment and Sustainability for their excellent guidance and enormous support during this research. R² = 0.9892 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Modsim Allocation (mm) Irrigation Demand (mm) Irrigation in Alberta R² = 0.9991 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 WRMM Allocation (mm) Irrigation Demand (mm) Irrigation in Saskatchewan R² = 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 WRMM Allocation (cms) Major Water Demand (cms) Major Withdrawal in Saskatchewan R² = 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Modsim Allocation (cms) Major Water Demand (cms) Major Withdrawal in Saskatchewan Research Purpose ➢ A software package developed at Colorado State University for river basin management and decision support. (Labadie, 2006) ➢ Important Features: freeware, complex river basin configurations, conditional operating rules, water rights and storage contracts, large number of priorities (1-5,000), scenario analysis and customization of MODSIM code. ➢ Water allocation mechanism: network flow optimization. ➢Longest continuously maintained river basin management software package currently available. (Labadie, 2006) The aim of this study is to integrate water resources components across the entire SaskRB into one modelling platform, in line with the aims of the Integrated Modelling Program for Prediction and Management of Change in Canada’s Major River Basins (IMPC), to facilitate Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in the basin. R² = 0.9897 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 Modsim Allocation (cms) Major Water Demand (cms) Major Withdrawal in Alberta MODSIM Decision Support system R² = 0.9992 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Modsim Allocation (mm) Irrigation Demand (mm) Irrigation in Saskatchewan MODSIM DSS Credibility and Performance Scenario Development & Analysis ✓ Water Balance of the System ✓ MODSIM and WRMM Operations Hydrometeorological Data Physical & Operational Properties System Reliability, Reversibility and Vulnerability Future scenarios of hydro-climate change and irrigation expansion from CCRN outputs Metrics of the System’s Performance TransAlta Model Southern Tributaries Model Highwood Diversion Plan Model SSR Alberta Model SSR SK Model NSR Model Manitoba Figure: MODSIM network structure with artificial nodes and links (Labadie, 2006) 549 551 553 555 557 559 Jan/70 Jun/71 Nov/72 Apr/74 Sep/75 Feb/77 Jul/78 Dec/79 May/81 Oct/82 Mar/84 Aug/85 Jan/87 Jun/88 Nov/89 Apr/91 Sep/92 Feb/94 Jul/95 Dec/96 May/98 Oct/99 Mar/01 Aug/02 Jan/04 Elevation (m) L.Dief_MODSIM L. Dief_WRMM Oldman Red Deer Bow Southern Tributaries Model TransAlta Model Highwood Diversion Plan Model Source: Partners for The Saskatchewan River Basin 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1/07/28 1/07/30 1/07/32 1/07/34 1/07/36 1/07/38 1/07/40 1/07/42 1/07/44 1/07/46 1/07/48 1/07/50 1/07/52 1/07/54 1/07/56 1/07/58 1/07/60 1/07/62 1/07/64 1/07/66 1/07/68 1/07/70 1/07/72 1/07/74 1/07/76 1/07/78 1/07/80 1/07/82 1/07/84 1/07/86 1/07/88 1/07/90 1/07/92 1/07/94 1/07/96 1/07/98 1/07/00 Flow (cms) SSR Flow to Saskatchewan MODSIM WRMM SSR NSR