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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) Healthcare and cost rationalization steals the show INDIA | FMCG | Quarterly Update 30 July 2020 Top takeaways from 1QFY21 Dabur 1QFY21 results were much ahead of expectations owing to 1) strong growth in healthcare (up 30% yoy) and 2) sharp reduction in A&P spends/other expense (down 28%/18% yoy) and 3) solid traction from trade/customers with regards to New product launches across segments Channel and geographical mix: General trade was down 13% yoy, however gradually it has started reaching normalcy towards end of July; whereas MT/CSD channel (down 28% /50% YoY) continues to remain under stress and is yet to see meaningful recovery. July month saw secondary sales growth of 5-6% driven on back of recovery in GT channel, however primary sale stood flattish as MT, CSD and HORECA continues to remain severely impacted. E-com channel got favourable response and its contribution moved up to 5.6% 1.5% in FY20, as lockdown imposed severe restrictions on consumer movement. Rural (up 1%) grew much faster than urban (down 13%) and now it has distribution reach of 52,600 villages and targets 60,000 villages in next 1-2 years. Management plans to ramp-up margin accretive healthcare portfolio, focus on increasing salience of new product launches, intends to carry sustainable cost-rationalization excerise (targeting savings of Rs 1-1.2 bn in FY21) and further strengthen its direct reach in order to improve profitability and enhance sales NPD: In recent times, Dabur has become most aggressive company (even more than bellwether – Nestle and HUL) as far as new launches are concerned and results were clearly visible in Q1FY21 results (contribution of NPD to total sales moved up to c6% from 1-1.5% earlier). Taking cognizance of opportunity in personal hygiene segment, Dabur newly launched Sanitizer range has already clocked sales of Rs c900mn in 1Q itself (both domestic and International combined) and new launches in health care segment have garnered another Rs 500mn. Moreover, it intends to take aggressive stance on new categories / new product launches (will expedite transition from Ethicals to OTC) in coming qtrs and aims to achieve 3-4% of sales from NPD on annual basis Strategy for future: Dabur has penned down series of long term structural strategy to drive next leg of growth: 1) streamlining the entire supply chain eco-system using digital and auto replenishment model, 2) Project Samriddhi – cost and cash flow optimisation across value chain to drive savings which will be utilise to grow power brands and NPD, it targets Rs 1-1.2bn savings FY21 and 3) become agile and nimble to compete competition effectively Other con-call highlights COVID-19 has turned out to be blessing in disguise for supply chain systems - Mgmt has implemented the following changes during the pandemic with regards to supply chains – 1) Have been able to reduce distributor inventory days to 16 from 21-22 days and intends to further bring down by 4-5 days once range availability at stockist / CFA’s end improves from current 70% to 90- 95% 2) Has put in system which will enable to monitor secondary sales effectively as Drishti app has been upgraded 3) Replaced cheque based settlement system with digital means for 75% of its distributors 4) Moved to Paper-less distributor claim settlement system and 5) Moved to Weekly sales and operations team meeting vs Monthly meetings earlier Diversified portfolio makes it immune from any unknown: We believe Dabur’s diversified portfolio makes it fool-proof from any economic, regulatory and seasonality risks, including current COVID-19 scenario where customers are looking for healthy and immunity boosting products that other peers might have to tackle. Management under the guidance of Mr Mohit Malhotra is taking steps in right direction (Focus on power brands, NPD and increased distribution reach) to drive growth in long term. Reduction in competitive intensity from Patanjali further should support the cause. We increase our EPS estimates by 4-7% and maintain BUY with TP with of Rs 550 (50x Sept -22 EPS) vs Rs 480 (50x FY22 EPS) earlier. Key Risks – 1) Discount-led competition by juice/ oral care players to gain market share and 3) any unfavourable factor hurting rural economy BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 492 TARGET RS 550 (+12%) SEBI CATEGORY: LARGE CAP COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 1767 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 857 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 11.4 52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 525 / 377 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 23.2 PAR VALUE (RS) : 1 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Mar 20 Dec 19 Sep 19 PROMOTERS : 67.9 67.9 67.9 FII / NRI : 17.5 17.6 17.7 FI / MF : 7.5 7.6 7.7 NON PRO : 1.9 1.8 1.7 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 5.2 5.1 5.0 KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY21E FY22E FY23E Net Sales 86,478 97,293 1,09,489 EBIDTA 18,741 21,387 24,757 Net Profit 15,807 18,112 21,049 EPS, Rs 8.9 10.3 11.9 PER, x 55.0 48.0 41.3 EV/EBIDTA, x 45.3 39.3 33.5 PBV, X 12.2 10.8 9.4 ROE, % 22.2 22.5 22.7 Debt/Equity (%) 7.4 6.5 5.7 CHANGE IN ESTIMATES __Revised Est. __ __% Revision__ Rs bn FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E Revenue 86,478 97,293 1.4% 3.4% EBITDA 18,741 21,387 4.2% 6.2% Core PAT 15,807 18,112 4.4% 6.4% EPS (Rs) 8.9 10.3 4.1% 6.8% Vishal Gutka, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia, Research Associate (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected] (Rs mn) 1QFY21 1QFY20 yoy % 4QFY20 qoq % Net Sales 19,800 22,733 (12.9) 18,654 6.1 EBITDA 4,166 4,576 (9.0) 3,523 18.3 PAT 3,418 3,831 (10.8) 3,012 13.5
9

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Page 1: INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN ...backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC_-_Dabur_Q1F… · Dabur launched Dant Rakshak 1) in markets where

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)

Healthcare and cost rationalization steals the show INDIA | FMCG | Quarterly Update

30 July 2020

Top takeaways from 1QFY21 Dabur 1QFY21 results were much ahead of expectations owing to 1) strong growth in healthcare

(up 30% yoy) and 2) sharp reduction in A&P spends/other expense (down 28%/18% yoy) and 3)

solid traction from trade/customers with regards to New product launches across segments

Channel and geographical mix: General trade was down 13% yoy, however gradually it has

started reaching normalcy towards end of July; whereas MT/CSD channel (down 28% /50% YoY)

continues to remain under stress and is yet to see meaningful recovery. July month saw

secondary sales growth of 5-6% driven on back of recovery in GT channel, however primary sale

stood flattish as MT, CSD and HORECA continues to remain severely impacted. E-com channel got

favourable response and its contribution moved up to 5.6% 1.5% in FY20, as lockdown imposed

severe restrictions on consumer movement. Rural (up 1%) grew much faster than urban (down

13%) and now it has distribution reach of 52,600 villages and targets 60,000 villages in next 1-2

years.

Management plans to ramp-up margin accretive healthcare portfolio, focus on increasing

salience of new product launches, intends to carry sustainable cost-rationalization excerise

(targeting savings of Rs 1-1.2 bn in FY21) and further strengthen its direct reach in order to

improve profitability and enhance sales

NPD: In recent times, Dabur has become most aggressive company (even more than bellwether –

Nestle and HUL) as far as new launches are concerned and results were clearly visible in Q1FY21

results (contribution of NPD to total sales moved up to c6% from 1-1.5% earlier). Taking

cognizance of opportunity in personal hygiene segment, Dabur newly launched Sanitizer range

has already clocked sales of Rs c900mn in 1Q itself (both domestic and International combined)

and new launches in health care segment have garnered another Rs 500mn. Moreover, it intends

to take aggressive stance on new categories / new product launches (will expedite transition from

Ethicals to OTC) in coming qtrs and aims to achieve 3-4% of sales from NPD on annual basis

Strategy for future: Dabur has penned down series of long term structural strategy to drive next

leg of growth: 1) streamlining the entire supply chain eco-system using digital and auto

replenishment model, 2) Project Samriddhi – cost and cash flow optimisation across value chain

to drive savings which will be utilise to grow power brands and NPD, it targets Rs 1-1.2bn savings

FY21 and 3) become agile and nimble to compete competition effectively

Other con-call highlights

COVID-19 has turned out to be blessing in disguise for supply chain systems - Mgmt has

implemented the following changes during the pandemic with regards to supply chains – 1) Have

been able to reduce distributor inventory days to 16 from 21-22 days and intends to further bring

down by 4-5 days once range availability at stockist / CFA’s end improves from current 70% to 90-

95% 2) Has put in system which will enable to monitor secondary sales effectively as Drishti app

has been upgraded 3) Replaced cheque based settlement system with digital means for 75% of its

distributors 4) Moved to Paper-less distributor claim settlement system and 5) Moved to Weekly

sales and operations team meeting vs Monthly meetings earlier

Diversified portfolio makes it immune from any unknown: We believe Dabur’s diversified portfolio

makes it fool-proof from any economic, regulatory and seasonality risks, including current COVID-19

scenario where customers are looking for healthy and immunity boosting products that other peers

might have to tackle. Management under the guidance of Mr Mohit Malhotra is taking steps in right

direction (Focus on power brands, NPD and increased distribution reach) to drive growth in long term.

Reduction in competitive intensity from Patanjali further should support the cause. We increase our

EPS estimates by 4-7% and maintain BUY with TP with of Rs 550 (50x Sept -22 EPS) vs Rs 480 (50x

FY22 EPS) earlier. Key Risks – 1) Discount-led competition by juice/ oral care players to gain market

share and 3) any unfavourable factor hurting rural economy

BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 492 TARGET RS 550 (+12%)

SEBI CATEGORY: LARGE CAP

COMPANY DATA

O/S SHARES (MN) : 1767

MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 857

MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 11.4

52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 525 / 377

LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 23.2

PAR VALUE (RS) : 1

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %

Mar 20 Dec 19 Sep 19

PROMOTERS : 67.9 67.9 67.9

FII / NRI : 17.5 17.6 17.7

FI / MF : 7.5 7.6 7.7

NON PRO : 1.9 1.8 1.7

PUBLIC & OTHERS : 5.2 5.1 5.0

KEY FINANCIALS

Rs mn FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 86,478 97,293 1,09,489

EBIDTA 18,741 21,387 24,757

Net Profit 15,807 18,112 21,049

EPS, Rs 8.9 10.3 11.9

PER, x 55.0 48.0 41.3

EV/EBIDTA, x 45.3 39.3 33.5

PBV, X 12.2 10.8 9.4

ROE, % 22.2 22.5 22.7

Debt/Equity (%) 7.4 6.5 5.7

CHANGE IN ESTIMATES

__Revised Est. __ __% Revision__

Rs bn FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

Revenue 86,478 97,293 1.4% 3.4%

EBITDA 18,741 21,387 4.2% 6.2%

Core PAT 15,807 18,112 4.4% 6.4%

EPS (Rs) 8.9 10.3 4.1% 6.8%

Vishal Gutka, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4118) [email protected] Preeyam Tolia, Research Associate (+ 9122 6246 4129) [email protected]

(Rs mn) 1QFY21 1QFY20 yoy % 4QFY20 qoq %

Net Sales 19,800 22,733 (12.9) 18,654 6.1

EBITDA 4,166 4,576 (9.0) 3,523 18.3

PAT 3,418 3,831 (10.8) 3,012 13.5

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Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

DABUR INDIA LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Gross margins: standalone margins expanded 126bps yoy to 49.4% owing to favourable

RM index, lower trade and promotions expenses and carry over price hikes of 1.5%.Mgmt

highlighted that it is seeing 3% inflation at aggregate level on back of shortage of key agri

commodities, however it plans to mitigate the impact through price hikes (mainly in

healthcare portfolio) in coming months and will be offset by benign pricing of crude

derivatives. Consolidated gross margins were flat despite GM tailwinds in domestic

business on account of unfavourable country mix and high promotion for its international

business (30% of sales)

Though domestic business declined c7% yoy in Q1FY21, power brands sales declined 1-

1.5% yoy, only

Savings from the cost rationalisation program (project Samriddhi) will be utilised to

support NPDs and power brands through higher trade and ad-spends.

Health care: grew c30% yoy growth driven by strong growth in Chyawanprash (up 7x) and

Honey (up 69% yoy) driven by market share gains as competition weakens due to supply

chain challenges. Management highlighted to further strengthen Chyawanprash it plans

to launch new format and SKUs to increase affordability.

HPC: Oral care grew 1.5% YoY on account of relative strong growth seen in Toothpaste

category (up 3% YoY) and market share gains (up 60bps YoY). Dabur launched Dant

Rakshak 1) in markets where brand equity of Dabur is weak, mainly Hindi heartbelt and 2)

at attractive pricing (Rs 40 vs Dabur Red which is available at Rs 50) so that it can

effectively compete with Pantanjali Dant Kanti. It plans to launch baby care range “Dabur

Baby” in coming months, please note “Dabur Lal Tail” is the only key brand of Dabur

which caters to baby care category.

Foods business declined 35% YoY as HORECA (10-15% of overall) and Out of Home

consumption (on the go 200 ml SKUs which contributes 40% of sales) was severely

impacted; however one litres pack are seeing gradual recovery. Management highlighted

with recent launches (i,e availability in LUP Rs 10 (Koolerz and Real mini Apple), Real PET

bottle and milk shakes), it has completed entire product suite, which can help to revive

growth International business: recovering faster expects low to mid single digit value growth in

Q2. Hobi (Turkey) clocked healthy growth in 1Q as meaningful part of revenue comes

from hand washes/ body-washes. Namaste business also recovered, as customers staying

in-doors revived sales of Relaxers

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Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

DABUR INDIA LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Financial Snapshot

Consolidated (Rs m) 1QFY20 1QFY21 Yoy % Comments

Volume gr (%) 9.6 (9.7) Subdued International performance weigh on topline growth, domestic business

declined c7% yoy Net sales 22,733 19,800 -12.9

Operating Costs (18,157) (15,634) -13.9

EBITDA 4,576 4,166 -9.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1 21.0 91bps

Depreciation (528) (567) 7.6

Interest (153) (78) -48.7

Other Income 733 718 -2.0

PBT 4,629 4,238 -8.4

Provision for Tax (794) (825) 3.9

-Tax Rate (%) 17.2 19.5 231bps

Net profit before minority 3,835 3,413 -11.0

Minority Interest (7) 5

Share of profit from associate 3 0

Adj PAT 3,831 3,418 -10.8

Net Profit Margin 16.9 17.3 41bps

EO Items (200) -

Reported PAT 3,631 3,418 -5.9

EPS 2.1 1.9 -5.9

Gross Profit 11,256 9,784 -13.1

Gross margins (%) 49.5 49.4 -10bps

Cost Details 1QFY20 1QFY21 Yoy %

Raw Material Consumption 11,477 10,016 -12.7

As a % of sales 50.5 50.6 10bps

Employees cost 2,314 2,238 -3.3

As a % of sales 10.2 11.3 112bps

Ad spends 2,021 1,456 -27.9

As a % of sales 8.9 7.4 -154bps

Other expenditure 2,344 1,924 -17.9

As a % of sales 10.3 9.7 -59bps

Source: Company PhillipCapital India Research

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DABUR INDIA LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Subdued HPC and Foods business drags volume growth

Source: Company

Subdued international performance

International (cc %) Q1FY21

MENA -47.6% Egypt -26.1% Hobi 33.5% Namaste 12.3% SSA -38.0% Nepal -53.0% Bangladesh 14.0%

Category growth

Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21

Growth rates

Markets

Domestic 10.7 17.7 10 24.7 8.6 15.2 5.9 11 4.9 5.6 -17.1 -6.9

International (reported currency) - - - - 8.9 3.4 1.9

International (constant currency) 3.9 5 16.8 10.5 7 1 NA 7.7 3.2 12 -0.6 -21.6

Categories

Health Supplements 3 19.5 14 27.5 12.3 13.8 10.2 19.6 14.4 12.2 -9.5 52.6

Digestives 11.7 19.3 7.2 21.6 10.8 22.5 11.9 18.2 10.2 15.9 -9.5 -11.5

OTC & Ethicals 5.5 8.7 7.8 13.3 7.7 17.7 12.1 15.2 6 3.9 -20.6 21.9

Hair Care 2.3 24 13 20 15.4 24 2.8 11.7 3.9 1 -20.2 -22.7

Home Care 10.1 36 - 17.4 10.9 8.9 16.2 10.9 7 2.5 -18.4 -30.5

Oral Care 22.8 23 11 17.3 3.9 10 8.2 11.4 4.4 8.5 -15.8 1.4

Skin Care 15.8 14.5 8.5 27.1 11.9 19.3 11.2 12.1 1 -0.3 -24.2 -12.5

Foods 11.7 - 2 26 1.4 11.5 6.5 0.5 -5 -1.7 -20.6 -34.4

Source: Company PhillipCapital India Research

-4

7

13

8

21

8.1

12.4

4.3

9.6

4.8 5.6

-14.6

-9.7

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Domestic volume gr (%)

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Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

DABUR INDIA LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

New launches – ready to roll

Category Products

Health care Dabur Honey Tulsi

Dabur Honey Ashwagandha

Dabur Ashwagandha Tablets

Dabur Ashwagandha Capsules

Dabur Ayush Kwath

Dabur Honitus Adulsa Cough Syrup

Dabur Sanitize Antiseptic liquid

Dabur Sanitize Germ Protection Soap

Dashmol Jirakam

Pippalayasava

Lal Shar

Dabur Tulso Drops

Dabur Haldi Drops

Dabur Amla Juice

Dabur Giloy Ras

Dabur Aloe Vera Juice

Dabur Giloy Neem Tulsi Juice

Trikatu Churna

HPC Dabur Dant Rakshak Toothpaste

Dabur Herb'l Clove Toothpaste

Dabur Amla Aloe Vera Hair oil

Dabur Badam Amla Hair oil

Fem Gold Radiance Facial Kit

Dabur Sanitize Laundry sanitizer

Dabur Sanitize Multipurpose surface cleaner and disinfectant

Dazzl Floor cleaner

Dazzl Anti Bacterial Glass Cleaner

Odopic Utensil Cleaner Liquid

Odomos Mosquito Killer Racquet

Dabur Sanitize Hand Sanitisers

Odonil Air sanitizers

Dazzle Surface cleaner

Fem Handwash With Germ Kill

Dabur Sanitize Air Sanitisers

Dabur Veggie Wash

Dabur Sanitize Disinfectant Spray

Dabur Suraksha Kit

Foods Real Frappe (4 variants)

Real Mango Drink PET bottle

Real Apple Mini

Dabur Amla Plus

Dabur Hommade Chutney Range

Dabur Hommade Imli Sauce

Dabur Hommade Pickles Range

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DABUR INDIA LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Financials

Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net sales 87,036 86,478 97,293 1,09,489

Growth, % 2.0 -0.6 12.5 12.5

Other income 0 0 0 0

Total income -43,602 -42,730 -47,644 -53,123

Raw material expenses -9,477 -9,525 -10,573 -11,841

Other Operating expenses -16,033 -15,481 -17,690 -19,767

EBITDA (Core) 17,924 18,741 21,387 24,757

Growth, % 3.0 4.6 14.1 15.8

Margin, % 20.6 21.7 22.0 22.6

Depreciation -2,205 -2,476 -2,688 -2,899

EBIT 15,719 16,266 18,699 21,858

Growth, % 0.6 3.5 15.0 16.9

Margin, % 18.1 18.8 19.2 20.0

Interest paid -495 -347 -373 -401

Other income 3,053 3,358 3,761 4,213

Other Non-Operating Income -1,000 0 0 0

Pre-tax profit 17,276 19,277 22,087 25,670

Tax provided -2,797 -3,470 -3,976 -4,621

Profit after tax 14,479 15,807 18,112 21,049

Net Profit 14,479 15,807 18,112 21,049

Growth, % 1.7 2.1 14.6 16.2

Net Profit (adjusted) 14,479 15,807 18,112 21,049

Unadj. shares (m) 1,766 1,766 1,766 1,766

Wtd avg shares (m) 1,766 1,766 1,766 1,766

Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E

Cash & bank 10,661 18,290 26,648 38,045

Marketable securities at cost 7,254 7,254 7,254 7,254

Debtors 8,502 8,448 9,504 10,696

Inventory 13,265 13,180 14,829 16,687

Loans & advances 110 110 110 110

Total current assets 43,669 51,158 62,220 76,668

Investments 26,334 26,334 26,334 26,334

Gross fixed assets 34,894 37,644 40,394 43,144

Less: Depreciation -13,903 -16,378 -19,066 -21,965

Add: Capital WIP 415 415 415 415

Net fixed assets 21,406 21,680 21,743 21,593

Total assets 93,250 1,01,014 1,12,139 1,26,437

Current liabilities 26,894 26,799 28,644 30,724

Provision 595 595 595 595

Total current liabilities 27,489 27,394 29,239 31,319

Non-current liabilities 2,070 2,070 2,070 2,070

Total liabilities 29,559 29,463 31,308 33,388

Paid-up capital 1,766 1,766 1,766 1,766

Reserves & surplus 61,611 69,470 78,750 90,968

Shareholders’ equity 63,691 71,550 80,830 93,048

Total equity & liabilities 93,250 1,01,013 1,12,138 1,26,436

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E

Pre-tax profit 17,276 19,277 22,087 25,670 Depreciation 2,205 2,476 2,688 2,899 Chg in working capital 1,396 44 -860 -970 Total tax paid -2,797 -3,470 -3,976 -4,621 Other operating activities 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from operating activities 18,080 18,327 19,939 22,979 Capital expenditure -3,282 -2,750 -2,750 -2,750 Chg in investments 0 0 0 0 Chg in marketable securities 0 0 0 0 Other investing activities 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing activities -3,282 -2,750 -2,750 -2,750 Free cash flow 14,798 15,577 17,189 20,229 Equity raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 0 Debt raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 0 Dividend (incl. tax) -7,418 -7,948 -8,832 -8,832 Other financing activities 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing activities -7,418 -7,948 -8,832 -8,832 Net chg in cash 7,379 7,629 8,358 11,397

Valuation Ratios

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E

Per Share data EPS (INR) 8.2 8.9 10.3 11.9

Growth, % 1.7 2.1 14.6 16.2 Book NAV/share (INR) 35.9 40.3 45.6 52.5 FDEPS (INR) 8.8 8.9 10.3 11.9 CEPS (INR) 10.6 10.4 11.8 13.6 CFPS (INR) 8.5 8.5 9.2 10.6 DPS (INR) 3.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 Return ratios

Return on assets (%) 16.9 16.6 17.3 18.0 Return on equity (%) 24.4 22.2 22.5 22.7 Return on capital employed (%) 24.1 23.0 23.4 23.9 Turnover ratios

Asset turnover (x) 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.3 Sales/Total assets (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Sales/Net FA (x) 4.2 4.0 4.5 5.1 Working capital/Sales (x) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 Fixed capital/Sales (x) - - - - Working capital days (4.8) (5.0) (1.2) 2.1 Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 Quick ratio (x) 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 Interest cover (x) 31.7 46.9 50.2 54.5 Dividend cover (x) Total debt/Equity (%) 8.3 7.4 6.5 5.7 Net debt/Equity (%) (8.5) (18.3) (26.6) (35.4) Valuation PER (x) 56.1 55.0 48.0 41.3 Price/Book (x) 13.7 12.2 10.8 9.4 Yield (%) EV/Net sales (x) 9.8 9.8 8.6 7.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 47.8 45.3 39.3 33.5 EV/EBIT (x) 54.5 52.2 44.9 37.9

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Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation stock. The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.

Large cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +10% Target price is equal to or more than 10% of current market price

NEUTRAL -10% > to < +10% Target price is less than +10% but more than -10%

SELL <= -10% Target price is less than or equal to -10%.

Mid cap and Small cap stocks Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%

SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.

This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., which is regulated by the SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only, and neither the information contained herein, nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment, or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

This report does not regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax, and financial advisors and reach their own conclusions regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned within it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources,

N (TP 330)

N (TP 345) N (TP 375) M-18

B (TP 490)

B (TP 430)

B (TP 485)

B (TP 530) B (TP 530)

B (TP 429)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

J-17 A-17 O-17 N-17 J-18 F-18 A-18 M-18 J-18 A-18 O-18 N-18 J-19 F-19 A-19 M-19 J-19 A-19 O-19 N-19 J-20 F-20 A-20 J-20

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which PCIL believe is reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice.

Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request.

Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst(s) have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report.

Additional Disclosures of Interest: Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below: 1. The Research Analyst(s), PCIL, or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in

this report. 2. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the

company (ies)covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report. 3. The Research Analyst, his/her associate, his/her relative, and PCIL, do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this

research report. 4. The Research Analyst, PCIL, and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for

any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for

the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. PCIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in

connection with the research report. 7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director, or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report. 8. The Research Analyst and PCIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report. 9. Details of PCIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report:

Sr. no. Particulars Yes/No

1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by PCIL

No

2 Whether Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report

No

3 Whether compensation has been received by PCIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No

4 PCIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the Research report

No

5 Research Analyst, his associate, PCIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months

No

Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it, or its affiliates/employees, may have positions in, purchase or sell, or be materially interested in any of the securities covered in the report.

Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic, or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results.

Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material, and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall PCIL, any of its affiliates/employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage, however arising, from the use of this document.

Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety.

Caution: Risk of loss in trading/investment can be substantial and even more than the amount / margin given by you. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, you are requested to read all the related documents carefully before investing. You should carefully consider whether trading/investment is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, group entities, or affiliates shall not be liable for losses, if any, incurred by you. You are further cautioned that trading/investments in financial markets are subject to market risks and are advised to seek independent third party trading/investment advice outside PhillipCapital/group/associates/affiliates/directors/employees before and during your trading/investment. There is no guarantee/assurance as to returns or profits or capital protection or appreciation. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, and/or employees, directors, associates of PhillipCapital’s group entities or affiliates is not inducing you for trading/investing in the financial market(s). Trading/Investment decision is your sole responsibility. You must also read the Risk Disclosure Document and Do’s and Don’ts before investing.

Kindly note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

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For Detailed Disclaimer: Please visit our website www.phillipcapital.in IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR U.S. PERSONS This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. is authorized to engage in securities activities in India. PHILLIPCAP is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribution to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not a Major Institutional Investor.

Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Rosenblatt Securities Inc, 40 Wall Street 59th Floor, New York NY 10005, a registered broker dealer in the United States. Under no circumstances should any recipient of this research report effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments through PHILLIPCAP. Rosenblatt Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor.

The analyst whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and may not be an associated person of Rosenblatt Securities Inc. and, therefore, may not be subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Rosenblatt Securities Inc. or its affiliates does not ‘beneficially own,’ as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act, 1% or more of any of the equity securities mentioned in the report. Rosenblatt Securities Inc, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may have interests, or long or short positions, and may at any time make purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the securities referred to herein. Rosenblatt Securities Inc. is not aware of any material conflict of interest as of the date of this publication Compensation and Investment Banking Activities Rosenblatt Securities Inc. or any affiliate has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months, nor received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months, neither does it or any affiliate expect to receive, or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months. Additional Disclosures This research report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This research report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient, even if sent only to a single recipient. This research report is not guaranteed to be a complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to in this research report. Neither PHILLIPCAP nor any of its directors, officers, employees or agents shall have any liability, however arising, for any error, inaccuracy or incompleteness of fact or opinion in this research report or lack of care in this research report’s preparation or publication, or any losses or damages which may arise from the use of this research report.

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