Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India India: Dimensions and Dilemmas of Low Carbon Development Presenter: Professor P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India COP13/CMP3 Side Event Low-Carbon Asia: How to Align Climate Change and Sustainable Development? Organized by National Institute of Environment Studies and Ministry of Environment, Japan Bali, Indonesia, December 8, 2007.
20
Embed
India: Dimensions and Dilemmas of Low Carbon Development2050.nies.go.jp/cop/cop13/presentation/Shukla_COP13.pdf · Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India India: Dimensions
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India: Dimensions and Dilemmas of Low Carbon Development
Presenter:Professor P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
COP13/CMP3 Side EventLow-Carbon Asia: How to Align Climate Change and Sustainable Development?Organized by National Institute of Environment Studies and Ministry of Environment, JapanBali, Indonesia, December 8, 2007.
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Key Dilemma: Alternate Paradigms
Two Visions of Low Carbon SocietyAchieving Stabilization of GHG Concentration by:
1.Climate Centric Actions at the MarginMargin of the Conventional Development PathPolicies: Global Carbon Price over Conventional Development Path
2.Aligning Climate Actions with the Mainstream Mainstream Development ActionsPolicies: Sustainable Development Path + Stabilization
What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling international commitments?
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
LCS Dimensions: Operational StrategyEconomic GrowthIncremental Investment in climate actions
• Mitigation• Adaptation
Climate change related Technologies• R&D/ IPR• Technology transfer
Climate change Risks• Adaptation costs• Insurance
Equity/ Fairness of global climate regimeMechanisms/ Instruments to manage climate change
• Direct (Climate) vs. Indirect (Development)• Market vs. CC + Non-Market
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
India: Demographic TransitionPopulation (Million)
Labor Force (Million)
358
555
849
1183
14491593
0
400
800
1200
1600
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
133210
360
595
795915
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Year: 2000 Pop: 1021 Million
Pop: 1593 MillionYear: 2050
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Age
Population (million)
Female Male
15 -
60 y
ears
0
Male Female
18-6
2 Yr
s
80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80Population (Million)
Age
80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Age
Populat ion (mil l ion)
Female Male
15 -
60 y
ears
Male Female
18-6
2 Yr
s80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80
Population (Million)
Age
2.22%
2.15%
1.67%
1.02%
0.47%
2.30%
2.74%
2.54%
1.46%
0.70%
Growth Rate
Growth Rate
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Drivers of Economic GrowthHuman Capital
⎯ High Labor Supply ⎯ Increasing Education ⎯ Migration (intra & inter county)
!. Important Places!.!. Important PlacesExisting Gas PipelinesExisting Gas Pipelines
Proposed Gas PipelinesProposed Gas Pipelines
º Existing LNG terminalsº Existing LNG terminals
F Proposed LNG terminalsF Proposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin
Proposed Gas Basin
Gas Pipelines under constructionGas Pipelines under construction
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Sustainable Low Carbon Development
Low Carbon Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock-ins
Long-term Vision
Win/Win OptionsShared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Conclusions• Development vision matters to LCS transition
• Moving from Margin to Mainstream– Managing climate change at the margin is costly, risky, and unsustainable
– Opportunities to gain multiple simultaneous dividends exist and should be realized
– Mainstreaming would permit adapting policies to changing dynamics and long-term goals
• LCS through Sustainability: The Post-Kyoto Regime– Burden sharing metaphor has posed climate stabilization as a zero-sum game, thus
inviting conflicts.
– Grandfathering not feasible as allocation under ‘Cap and Trade’ regime if emerging economies have to play central role in Climate Regime.
– Sustainability roadmap to LCS provides a practical way-out from:• Climate-centric commitments (as in ‘Grand architecture’) that have prevented cooperation, and
• Non-binding ambiguous and ambitious goals (federalism or ‘Madisonian’ approach) which cannot produce credible and stable policy signals.
– Even in Sustainable Low Carbon Societies, stabilization would still require climate focused policies, both for mitigation (beyond Energy) and adaptation.