India Case Study. A paradigm shift towards earthquake disaster resilience.

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN INDIA

A Paradigm Shift That Will Improve the Quality of Life in India

Part 1: Earthquakes

GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS THAT

CAN CAUSE DISASTERS• FLOODS

• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

• EARTHQUAKES

• TSUNAMIS

• DROUGHTS

• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

• LANDSLIDES

• WILDFIRES

INDIA IS PRONE TO DISASTERS

FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

• FLOODS

(especially during

monsoon season)

• EARTHQUAKES

(from sources

inside and outside

the country)

• CYCLONES

INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE, and

CAPABLE

• It is the seventh largest country,

• The second most populous

country with human resources of

over 1.2 billion people having

cultural and religious diversity,

• The most populous democracy, - - -

INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE , and

CAPABLE (continued)

• With many well- educated and well-

trained people,

• With high-tech and low-tech

capabilities,

• With a large Army

INDIA IS BIG, DIVERSE , and CAPABLE,

and VULNERABLE (continued)

• With many living in poverty,

• With many living in non-

earthquake-resistant housing,

• With cities and towns that are

dependent upon non- earthquake-

resistant infrastructure and critical

facilities.

INDIA FACES MULTIPLE

DISASTER THREATS

• India faces potential disasters each

year from floods, earthquakes, and

cyclones, some of which have

triggered notable disasters in the

past, and very recently, - - -

• That will happen again, unless a

paradigm shift occurs.

INDIA’s NEIGHBORS ARE

ALSO DISASTER PRONE

• India shares land borders with

Pakistan to the west; China,

Nepal, and Bhutan to the

northeast, and Burma and

Bangladesh to the east;

• All have experienced disasters

CONTINUATION OF THE STATUS

QUO WHEN A COUNTRY IS

DISASTER PRONE - - -

Will result in new and more complex

HEALTH PROBLEMS

WILL result in unnecessary

DEATHS AND INJURIES

WILL result in longer and more costly

RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• Disaster resilience has become an

urgent global goal in the 21st

century as many Nations are

experiencing disasters after a

natural hazard strikes, and learning

that their communities, institutions,

and people do NOT yet have the

capacity to be disaster resilient.

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• Disaster resilience does not just

happen; it is the result of decision-

making for a national paradigm shift

from the status quo to an improved

“coping capacity” that enables the

country to rebound quickly after a

disaster.

PART 1:

Earthquakes

1905,1934,1950, 1990,

1993, 2001, 2004*, 2011

EARTHQUAKES CENTERED

INSIDE INDIA

Ongoing collision of the indo-

Australian and the Eurasian tectonic

plates has created the Himalayan

Mountains and generated many

small and a few great magnitude

earthquakes

COLLISION OF THE INDO-AUSTRALIA AND

EURASIAN PLATES CAUSES EARTHQUAKES

INDIA HAS PEOPLE AND COMMUN-

ITIES AT FUTURE RISK AD INFINITUM

• The inter-plate collision is NOT

going to stop, - - -

• So, many generations of India’s

1.2 BILLION PEOPLE are at risk ad

infinitum from earthquakes

centered inside India.

SEISMICITY MAP

GUJARET, INDIA

EARTHQUAKE

JANUARY 26, 2001

TIMING OF THE

EARTHQUAKE

• It happened at 8:46 am on a

Saturday morning that was also

a national holiday.

GUJARAT EARTHQUAKE

THE CAUSE

A NOTABLE HISTORIC

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

• GUJARAT – Saturday, January 26, 2001,

(Republic Day holiday); M7.7; 8:46 am near

the towns of Bhuj, Bhachau, Anjar, Rapar;

Buildings/houses damaged in Ahmedabad

and partially to totally destroyed in Bhuj,

Bhachau, Anjar, Rapar, leaving 50.000 -

100,000 dead and 600,000 homeless.

GUJARAT: ESTIMATED

ECONONIC LOSS

• Nearly $5 billion

INDIA’s FIVE SEISMIC ZONES:

GUJARAT IS IN ZONE 3

ZONES

• ZONES 1 and 2: (Blue to Yellow-Brown)

Very low to Low seismic activiity

• ZONE 3: (Orange) Moderate seismic

activity

• ZONE 4 : (Light Red) High seismic

activity

• ZONE 5 (Dark Red): Very high seismic

activity

COLLAPSED HOUSES AND

BUILDINGS

• Within a few minutes, poorly

constructed homes and buildings in the

towns of Bhuj, Bhachau, Anjar, and

Rapar, and the city of Ahmedabad were

damaged or destroyed, leaving 50,000

to 100,000 dead and 600,000 survivors

needing medical care and relief

HOMELESS AND NEEDY

HOMELESS AND NEEDY

AHMEDABAD

AHMEDABAD

AHMEDABAD

AHMEDABAD

NO SURVIVORS

AHMEDABAD

NO SURVIVORS

TEMPORARY “SHELTER”

RESPONSIVE TO THE NEEDS

• The Indian government, with

assistance from International

NGO’s, the people, and others

responded immediately and

effectively to the urgent needs.

EXAMPLE OF EMERGENCY

ASSISTANCE

• A relief effort began the next day in

the most-affected towns: Anjar,

Bhachau, Rapar and Bhuj.

• Food and relief kits containing life

essentials and materials approp-

riate for the Jan-Feb weather were

provided quickly to families.

EXAMPLE OF EMERGENCY

ASSISTANCE (continued)

• Medical teams, each consisting

of a doctor and paramedic,

were rapidly mobilized to the

field to provide medical

assistance in the areas hit the

hardest..

EXAMPLE OF EMERGENCY

ASSISTANCE (continued)

• Beginning in February, the

Federation of Indian Chambers of

Commerce and Industry (FICCI)

implemented an 18- to 24-month

reconstruction program to provide

earthquake-resistant housing in

Bhachau, Anjar, Rapar and Bhuj.

A PARADIGM SHIFT TOWARDS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

RESILIENCE

A THREE STEP PROCESS

TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE

DISASTER RESILIENCE IN INDIA

• Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into

Books of Knowledge

• Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to

Innovative Educational Surges to Build

Professional and Technical Capacity

• Step 3: From Professional and Technical

Capacity to Disaster Resilience

Step 1: Integrate Past

Experiences Into Books of

Knowledge NOTE: A book of Knowkedge is

everything we know or think we know

about India’s earthquakes

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

Are “TOOLS” to facilitate India’s

continuing commitment to

minimize the likely impacts of the

inevitable future earthquake,

thereby preventing another

disaster

EARTHQUAKES CENTERED IN OTHER

COUNTRIES HAVE ALSO IMPACTED INDIA

The October 8, 2005 Kashmir,

Pakistan earthquake disaster that

caused 1,200 deaths in India is

one example.

EARTHQUAKES CENTERED IN OTHER

COUNTRIES HAVE ALSO IMPACTED INDIA

The December 26, 2004 Banda

Ache, Indonesia

earthquake/tsunami that killed

15,000 in India is another

example

TSUNAMI WAVES KILLED

15,000 IN INDIA

FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE

FACTORS

• The severity of a disaster is

exacerbated by five uncontrollable

factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of

the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the

magnitude and shallow depth of the

quake, and 5) the poor soils and

mountainous terrain of the region.

TWO CONTROLLABLE

FACTORS• The severity of a disaster is

exacerbated by two other factors that

tend to happen gradually over time:

• 1) the poor quality of construction of

buildings and infrastructure, and

• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and

prepare for kinds of socioeconomic

losses that occur in a disaster.

Step 2: From Books of

Knowledge to Innovative

Educational Surges to Build

Professional and Technical

Capacity in India to Minimize

Likely Impacts in the Next

Earthquake Disaster

NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a

Nation’s “Academies of Science,

Engineering and Medicine,” its

educational institutions at all

levels, and its electronic and

print media that provide public

information

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO

HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT

(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION

AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

LACK OF DETAILING AND

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-

STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES

OF RISK

CASE HISTORIES

GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE

EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER

Step 3: From Professional and

Technical Capacity to Science-

based Decision-making for a

Paradigm Shift from the status

quo to Disaster Resilience in

India

NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a

Nation’s “decision-makers,” (i.e., its political leaders,

stakeholders, and leading

professionals)

who have a basis for deciding

on the nature and scope of a

national paradigm shift

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

INCREASED

DEMANDS ON

COMMUNITY

A DISASTER:

INSUFFICIENT

CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

DEMANDS ON

COMMUNITY

MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE

NEXT EARTHQUAKE:

CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

INDIA’S

COMMUNITIESDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

•NATURAL HAZARDS

MAPS

•INVENTORY

•VULNERABILITY

•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

POLICIES TO

MINIMIZE IMPACTS

•PREPAREDNESS

•PROTECTION/PREVENTION

•EARLY WARNING

•EMERGENCY RESPONSE

•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.

POLICY OPTIONS