MARKET INTELLIGENCE . CONSULTING www.techsciresearch.com INDIA BASE OIL MARKET FORECAST & OPPORTUNITIES 2015 – 2025
Oct 06, 2020
MARKET INTELLIGENCE . CONSULTING
www.techsciresearch.com
INDIA BASE OIL MARKET
FORECAST & OPPORTUNITIES
2015 – 2025
2
Scope of ReportProduct of Interest (POI): Base Oil
Review Period
2015 – 2018
Base Year
2019
Estimated Year
2020
Forecast Period
2021 – 2025
Year Range
India base oil market is expected to grow at a formidable rate during the forecast period. Growth ofbase oil market in India can be majorly attributed to rapid industrialisation, growing automotiveindustry and rise in number of automobile manufacturing plants in the country. Moreover, increasinguse of lubricants in numerous end user industries is further propelling the product demand in thecountry. Furthermore, rise in sale of vehicles along with growing logistics & aviation and tradeindustries are anticipated to play a considerable role in bolstering the growth of India base oil market.
BASE OIL MARKET
Market Segmentation
APPLICATION
• Automotive Oil
• Industrial Oil
• Metalworking Fluids
• Hydraulic Oil
• Greases
• Others
TYPE
• Group I
• Group II
• Group III
• Group IV
• Group V
• East
• West
• North
• South
REGION
3
S. No. Contents Page No.
1. Product Overview
2. Research Methodology
3. Executive Summary
4. Voice of Customer
5. India Base Oil Market Outlook
5.1. Market Size & Forecast
5.1.1. By Value & Volume
5.2. Market Share & Forecast
5.2.1. By Type (Group I, Group II, Group III, Group IV, and Group V)
5.2.2.By Application (Automotive Oil, Industrial Oil, Metalworking Fluids, Hydraulic Oil, Greases, and Others)
5.2.3. By Region (East; West; North; South)
5.2.4. By Company (2019)
5.3. Market Attractiveness Index
6. North India Base Oil Market Outlook
6.1. Market Size & Forecast
6.1.1. By Value & Volume
6.2. Market Share & Forecast
6.2.1. By Type
6.2.2. By Application
Table of Contents
4
S. No. Contents Page No.
7. East India Base Oil Market Outlook
7.1. Market Size & Forecast
7.1.1. By Value & Volume
7.2. Market Share & Forecast
7.2.1. By Type
7.2.2. By Application
8. South India Base Oil Market Outlook
8.1. Market Size & Forecast
8.1.1. By Value & Volume
8.2. Market Share & Forecast
8.2.1. By Type
8.2.2. By Application
9. West India Base Oil Market Outlook
9.1. Market Size & Forecast
9.1.1. By Value & Volume
9.2. Market Share & Forecast
9.2.1. By Type
9.2.2. By Application
10. Market Dynamics
10.1. Drivers
10.2. Challenges
Table of Contents
5
S. No. Contents Page No.
11. Market Trends & Developments
12. Policy & Regulatory Landscape
13. Pricing Analysis
14. India Economic Profile
15. Competitive Landscape
16. Strategic Recommendations
17. About Us & Disclaimer
Table of Contents
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
7
Research Methodology
✓ Identifying Key Opinion
Leaders
✓ Questionnaire Design
✓ In-depth Interviews
Data Collection
Developing List of Respondents
Formulating Questionnaire
Market Profiling
Data Validation
Data Analysis
In-depth secondary research was conducted to
determine top players in the India base oil market,
overall market size and segmental market size.
In order to conduct industry experts’
interviews, TechSci formulated a detailed
discussion guide.
List of industry players and industry
specialists was developed.
TechSci conducted interviews with
industry experts and industry players for data collection and
verification.
Data obtained as a result of primary and secondary research was
validated through rigorous
triangulation.
The data was scrutinized using MS-Excel, statistical
tools and internal proprietary database to obtain qualitative and
quantitative insights about the India base oil market.
Data
Collection
Data Filter
& AnalysisResearch &
Intelligence
Actionable
InsightsBusiness
Solution
Primary Research Desk Research Company Analysis
✓ Recent Developments
✓ Market Changing
Aspects/Dynamics
✓ Government Policies
✓ Conclusion
✓ Market Participants
✓ Key Strengths
✓ LinkedIn✓ TechSci Internal
Database
✓ Factiva✓ Hoovers
Paid Sources
✓ Company Websites✓ Company Annual
Reports✓ White Paper Study✓ Financial Reports✓ Investor
Presentations✓ Regulatory Body✓ Associations, etc.
Secondary Research
Primary Research
8
Research Methodology
Baseline Methodology
Our dedicated team of industry experts has monitored and analyzed various aspects of India base oil market. The team has analyzed the outlook of
various segments of this market, while considering the major influencing factors such as rapid industrialization, rapidly growing automotive industry and
rise in number of automobile manufacturing plants and speculated a positive outlook during the next five years. The study includes market forecasting,
which would enable our clients to take better decisions while planning their strategy to achieve sustainability in India base oil market.
Methodology Followed for Calculation of Market Size:
• Market Size by Value & Volume: Market size, in terms of value & volume, for the year 2019 was calculated based on information collected through
exhaustive secondary research and primary surveys, with various key opinion leaders/stakeholders, such as base oil manufacturer and supplier
companies, channel partners, end users, industry experts, and other industry participants.
• The team interviewed more than 12 – 15 base oil manufacturer and supplier companies, 45 – 50 end users, and 8 – 10 industry experts and other value
chain stakeholders in the India base oil market to obtain the overall market size from 2015 to 2019, which was validated by the Delphi technique.
Taking standard deviation into consideration, the market size was averaged out, to arrive at the market size data during 2015-2019.
9
Research Methodology
• Respondents were asked about the current and future market growth rates, market shares by type, by application, by region and by company.
Removing the outlier responses, the geometric mean of growth estimates and supplier wise revenue shares generated across various segments
were considered, to arrive at the final revenue shares. Revenue shares generated across various segments were further triangulated from other
stakeholders.
Methodology Followed for Calculation of Market Shares:
Market shares by type, by application, by region and by company were calculated based on the responses received through primary surveys with
industry experts, in which the respondents were asked about the market shares or revenue generated from various segments of base oil market. The
final shares were calculated by taking the geometric mean of the responses gathered from key opinion leaders after eliminating the outliers.
Methodology Followed for Forecasting:
• TechSci Research performed periodical checks on data collected through the surveys with logic checks and analyzed the survey results in
SPSS/Tableau Software.
• Data triangulation techniques were applied to fill the gaps and to present a more meaningful picture of the market. To forecast India base oil
market, TechSci Research used various forecast techniques such as:
✓ Moving Average
✓ Time Series Analysis
✓ Regression Analysis
✓ Econometric and Judgmental Analysis
10
Research Methodology
TechSci Research used its own forecast tool, which is based on the growth of various allied industries in respective regions. TechSci Research also used
the impact analysis during short, medium, and long-term period to estimate the demand and to reach accurate market numbers. It should be noted
that the figures compiled are only for the organized market including market share data.
Partial List of Companies Interviewed Key Secondary Sources
▪ Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.
▪ Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
▪ Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
▪ Total S.A.
▪ SK Lubricants & Oils India Pvt Ltd.
▪ BP PLC
▪ Chevron Lubricants India Pvt Ltd.
▪ Petronas Pvt. Ltd.
▪ Shell India Pvt Ltd
▪ World Bank
▪ TechSci Research Proprietary Database & Knowledge
Repository
▪ Company Annual Reports
▪ Industry Magazines
▪ Industry Reports
▪ Statista
▪ News Dailies
▪ Credible Paid Databases
11
Industry Brief
According to TechSci Research report, “India Base Oil Market By Type, By Application, Competition, Forecast & Opportunities, 2025”,
India base oil market is predicted to grow at a steady pace during the forecast period on account of rising concerns over
environmental degradation coupled with the subsequent upsurge in demand for alternative, sustainable products having lower carbon
footprints. In addition to this, increasing adoption of group II as well as group III base oil on account of increasing ground
transportation, commercial road transportation and aviation is expected to support the base oil market growth in the country over the
next five years. Furthermore, expanding production capabilities in the country is likely to provide lucrative growth opportunities for the
market during the forecast period. However, volatility of crude oil prices might hamper the growth of India base oil market through
2025.
In terms of type, the India base oil market is segmented into group I, group II, group III, group IV, and group V. Among them, group II
and III segments jointly accounted for one-third of the market share until 2019. But group II base oil type, is the top investment pocket
and is projected to lead the market in the years to come, which can be attributed to the replacement of group I base oil because of
the shifting trend towards low and mid SAPS specifications and lighter viscosity grades. Moreover, the high adoption of group II base
oil is largely credited to its higher performance and affordability when compared to the other groups of base oil.
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, Total S.A., SK
Lubricants & Oils India Pvt Ltd., BP PLC, Chevron Lubricants India Pvt Ltd, Petronas Pvt. Ltd., Shell India Pvt Ltd, ADNOC etc.
among others are the leading players operating in India base oil market.
“Increasing GDP owing to surging industrial activities has increased the demand for base oil in this country. Growth of transportation,
mining, power generation, and other sectors in the country are also some other factors adding to the growth of the India base oil
market. In addition to this, rising demand for oils in the automotive sector and stringent environmental legislation leading to strict
performance standards is further anticipated to give a healthy push to the market growth through 2025.”, said Mr. Karan Chechi,
Research Director with TechSci Research, a research-based India management consulting firm.
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Sample Data - Snapshot
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00
10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00
2015 2019 2020E 2025F
By Value (USD Million)
By Volume (Kilo Tons)
India Base Oil Market Size, By Value (USD Million) & By Volume (Kilo Tons), 2015–2025F
CAGR By Value & Volume
XX%CAGR By Value & Volume
YY%
India Base Oil Market Share, By Type, By Value, 2015–2025F
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%
15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021F
2022F
2023F
2024F
2025F
Group I Group II Group III Group IV Group V
North India Base Oil Market Share, By Application, By Value, 2015–2025F
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%
10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%
5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020E
2021F
2022F
2023F
2024F
2025F
Automotive Oil Industrial Oil Metalworking Fluids Hydraulic Oil Greases Others
13
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FORECAST & OPPORTUNITIES
2015 – 2025
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global industry prospects. Combined with the detailed analysis of company activity and industry trends, the result is a uniquely rich evaluation of the opportunities available in the
market.
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