India-Bangladesh Relations & Forecastsgrid91.com/pdf/reports/IndiaBangladeshRelationsForecasts.pdf · due to the downstream shortage likely to be faced in the case the linkages are

India-Bangladesh Relations &

Forecasts

April 7, 2017

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

INTRODUCTION 1 

TEESTA WATER-SHARING AGREEMENT 2 

DEFENSE PACT 5 

MILITANCY 7 

INDIAN ECONOMIC INVESTMENT IN BANGLADESH 10 

POLITICAL OPPOSITION TO INDO-BANGLADESH RELATIONS 13 

FORECASTS 15 

C 1003, ONE BKC, G Block, BKC, Mumbai – 400 051, India. 

INTRODUCTION Bangladeshi Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina is slated to visit Delhi between 7-10 April. The                             visit follows a diplomatic trip to Dhaka by Indian Foreign Secretary S.Jaishankar in February                           during which he and his counterpart Mohammad Shahidul Haque reviewed bilateral relations                       between the two countries. The Secretary’s visit was to confirm certain deliverables ahead of                           PM Hasina’s visit to India. Since the ascendancy of PM Narendra Modi to the helm of affairs,                                 Bangladesh and India have seen a steady strengthening of ties, specifically following the                         ratification of the 1974 border pact by the leaders.   Various bilateral issues such as security, border management, trade, commerce, power, energy,                       shipping and railways are likely to be discussed during the diplomatic visit of the Bangladeshi                             premier. The upcoming diplomatic engagement will be a further thaw in warm ties between the                             two rapidly growing economies. This report highlights the major issues, challenges and                       forecasts for the decades old relationship between the South Asian countries.   While the Bangladeshi PM’s visit is liable to be directed at bolstering economic and defense                             agreements between the two countries, there still remain certain crucial issues that have                         remained unresolved and served as a matter of contention for the incumbent government in                           Dhaka. The persistence of the status-quo on the TeestaWaters Sharing Agreement, which was                           an issue that was expected to be resolved after PM Modi’ visit to Bangladesh in 2015, has                                 proved a disappointment.  

Further, continued efforts by China to engage Bangladesh as a strategic partner with the                           gargantuan credit lines extended by Beijing to Dhaka have acted to trouble New Delhi, given                             that Chinese interference in the Bay of Bengal region is likely to further complicate the                             geopolitical situation in South Asia. The sale of submarines by China to Bangladesh has                           additionally raised concerns in India. Cross-border militancy across the porous frontier                     between the two countries and the rising threat of militants seeking refuge in India has acted                               to perturb the Modi government, which has recently formed governments in three Northeast                         Indian states. Political opposition to the soon to be signed defence pact between Bangladesh                           and India by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has indicated that a section of the                             Bangladeshi population remains sceptical of PM Modi’s overtures.  

Various bilateral issues such as security, border management, trade, commerce,                   power, energy, shipping and railways are likely to be discussed during the diplomatic                         visit of the Bangladeshi premier. The upcoming diplomatic engagement will be a                       further thaw in warm ties between the two rapidly growing economies.  

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TEESTA WATER-SHARING AGREEMENT  The Teesta River originates from the Pahunri (Teesta Khangse) Glacier in Sikkim and enters                           Bangladesh, joins the Brahmaputra before emptying into the Bay of Bengal. The Bengal region                           is a hotbed for paddy cultivation. Paddy cultivation requires excessive irrigation and the                         Rangpur division in Bangladesh depends on Teesta’s waters. 83 percent of Teesta’s catchment                         areas lie in India, the remaining 17 percent is in Bangladesh. Following negotiations initiated in                             1983 between Bangladesh and India, an agreement was reachedwhich allocated 39 percent of                           Teesta’s water to India and 36 percent to Bangladesh, while 25 percent was left unallocated                             for a later resolution. The lesser share for Bangladesh can be attributed to the groundwater                             regeneration that takes place at two embankments on Teesta, one at Gazaldoba in Jalpaiguri in                             West Bengal, India and at Dalia in Lalmonirhat in Bangladesh. In 2011, an interim agreement                             was reached between India and Bangladesh allocating 42.5 percent of the river waters to India                             and 37.5 percent to Bangladesh, specifically during the dry season.  

PM Modi during his visit to Dhaka in 2015, had proclaimed that ‘river waters should build                               India-Bangladesh ties and not disrupt them’. He was accompanied by West Bengal Chief                         Minister (CM), Mamata Banerjee during his visit. However, Banerjee maintained her silence                       over the issue. The main obstacle for the TeestaWater Sharing Agreement remains Banerjee’s                           consent. The mercurial CM was at the forefront of protests against the proposed agreement in                             2011, when the then PM, Dr .Manmohan Singh and Sheikh Hasina reached the 42.5/37.5                           formula. According to Article 253 of the Indian Constitution, the Union can approve any                           transboundary river water treaty with a coastal state, however the centre cannot do so                           arbitrarily without taking into account the socio-economic effects of the respective treaty in                         catchment areas. Banerjee’s opposition stemmed from a supposed misunderstanding,                 believing that Bangladesh would receive 48 percent (33,000 cusecs) of water annually, instead                         of 25,000 cusecs, earlier agreed upon. As per Banerjee, the release of such a large quantity of                                 water into Bangladesh would severely affect irrigation systems in five North Bengal districts,                         including Coochbehar, Jalpaiguri, South Dinajpur, North Dinajpur andDarjeeling. Incidentally,                   these districts are amongst the poorest in West Bengal.   

As per Banerjee, the release of such a large quantity of water into Bangladesh would                             severely affect irrigation systems in five North Bengal districts, including Coochbehar,                     Jalpaiguri, South Dinajpur, North Dinajpur and Darjeeling. Incidentally, these districts                   are amongst the poorest in West Bengal.    

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Growing populations, increasing urban development and food consumption in the South Asia                       region have led to a sharp increase in demand for freshwater. As seen across the world,                               shortage of water for a growing population leads to security concerns for nations in a water                               deficit region. India has constantly voiced its displeasure over Chinese attempts to dam the                           Brahmaputra and deviate its course for the country’s consumption. Mutually binding                     diplomatic frameworks remain the only alternative to resolving water sharing issues that have                         developed in South Asia between countries such as Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan.                         International Laws might provide essential mediation when it comes to non-conformity                     between water-warring nations. India due to its location has long been an epicentre for these                             water conflicts and might become water-deficient by 2050 if adequate steps are not taken.  

A river-linking project which was proposed by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government                         has found new life with the advent of the Modi administration. This might further the cause of                                 improving the irrigation apparatus in Bengal. However, the project which also envisions a                         linking of the Manas, Teesta and Ganges rivers has been vehemently opposed by Bangladesh,                           

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due to the downstream shortage likely to be faced in the case the linkages are constructed.                               India and Bangladesh might need to revert to the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) which was set                               up in 1972 for the purpose of bilaterally resolving water management issues. The JRC might                             aid the process of setting certain norms to resolve all transnational river disputes between                           India and Bangladesh. The settlement of the land boundary problem and exchange of enclaves                           between the two countries might act to prove that anything can be possible if bilateral talks                               between two friendly nations are initiated.  

Taking into consideration the re-election of the Mamata Banerjee-led All India Trinamool                       Congress (AITC) in 2015 in West Bengal, the state government seems to have taken a                             placatory position with regards to the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement. On a personal level,                           Banerjee had promised her positive support to the Sheikh Hasina government visit with PM                           Modi in 2015 over the issue. While, regional politics has played a pivotal role in defining the                                 opposition displayed by the AITC government to the water sharing agreement, the CM’s                         re-election as well PM Modi’s unwavering popularity across the country might lead to some                           breakthrough with regards to the issue in the days to come. That said, famine conditions that                               develop in both West Bengal, Bangladesh and the substantial number of regions that depend                           on the water of the Teesta and its tributaries might lead to further complications in the                               resolution of the water-sharing woes.  

The settlement of the land         boundary problem and exchange of         enclaves between the two       countries might act to prove that           anything can be possible if bilateral           talks between two friendly nations         are initiated.  

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DEFENSE PACT  In October 2016, then Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar traveled to Dhaka to finalise the                           outline of a proposed long-term defense cooperation agreement. The comprehensive 25-year                     framework agreement is meant to lay the foundation for bilateral defense projects as well as                             future joint military exercises. India is also slated to offer Bangladesh a 500million USD credit                               line for the purchase of military hardware, including purchasing of patrolling boats for the                           coastguard and hardware items such as radars in air defense. Several Memorandum of                         Understandings (MOU) have already been finalized and another dozen deals are likely to be                           signed between PM Hasina and the Modi administration.  

The traditionally close relations between Bangladesh and China with respect to defense                       following the 2002 defense agreement signed between the two nations can be cited as the                             reason for the Indian push in moving towards further bilateral defense cooperation with                         Dhaka. China currently supplies Bangladesh with arms, military equipment, tanks, frigates,                     fighter jets among other essential defense requirements. The recent sale of two Type 035G                           diesel-electric submarines to Bangladesh by the Chinese might have acted to further instigate                         India into moving in for the kill. India has also been concerned over China’s intentions of                               building seaports and bases for submarines in the Bay of Bengal, that could hold Chinese naval                               vessels and submarines in the future. Further, Bangladesh signed a 1 billion USD arms contract                             with Russia in January 2013. Moreover, news of procurement of eight multi-combat aircraft                         from Russia for the Bangladesh Air Force have been doing the rounds. Earlier, Bangladesh has                             bought MI-8, MI-171 helicopters and MiG-29 fighter jets from Moscow.  

The Bangladesh-India defense agreement that will be signed has been looked at with a degree                             of scepticism by subject matter experts in Dhaka. Sources have indicated that Bangladesh was                           earlier reluctant on signing a pact with Delhi along with the inclusive configuration of the                             agreement and was rather looking for aMemorandum of Understanding (MoU) with India with                           regards to the defense vertical. Balancing relations between the two Asian giants might have                           persuaded the Bangladeshi establishment in going forward for a circumstantial agreement                     with India. While the Sheikh Hasina government relies on China for most of its military                             requirements, it has shared cordial relations with India since the 1971 Liberation War when                           Indian troops had aided East Pakistan liberate itself from Pakistan. Further, over-dependence                       on a single country with regards to military equipment, might prove detrimental for                         Bangladesh in the long-run in a crucial sector such as defense, especially at this stage, when the                                 country is developing at a phenomenal rate. Multiple procurement sources for the defense                         sector might aid Dhaka in increasing its collective regional capacity.                 

Further, Bangladesh signed a 1 billion USD arms contract with Russia in January 2013.                           Further, news of procurement of eight multi-combat aircraft from Russia for the                       Bangladesh Air Force have been doing the rounds. Earlier, Bangladesh has bought                       MI-8, MI-171 helicopters and MiG-29 fighter jets from Moscow.  

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MILITANCY  Bangladesh and India share a 4,096 kilometre international border, which has historically been                         porous due to its riverine and marshy nature, that makes it relatively unchallenging for illegal                             migrants to enter Indian border states such as Assam,Mizoram,Meghalaya, Tripura andWest                           Bengal. The Indian Border Security Force (BSF) and the Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB), man                           the frontier on their respective sides of the international border. The problem of recurring                           illegal migration into India from Bangladesh led to Delhi’s call for a 4,000 kilometre fence, to                               seal the Indo-Bangladesh border. The total length of the Indo-Bangladesh border to be fenced                           is 3286 kilometres out of which 2535 kilometres fencing was completed by 2008. Plans for                             fencing the remaining portion of the international border has been delayed due to                         non-feasibility of this area which is riverine or low lying and is also attributed to pending land                                 acquisition cases. This porous international border has helped Bangladeshi militant groups                     infiltrate into India and raised concerns about the potent threat by them to India’s national                             security.  

Sources indicate that, militant infiltration increasedmore than threefold in 2016, compared to                         last year’s statistical data, with approximately 2,010 militants, mainly belonging to the                       Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (HuJI-B)               crossing over into India. The number of militants that infiltrated into India in 2015 and 2014                               was 659 and 800 respectively. Three basic militant organizations have been identified to be                           operational till date in Bangladesh. These are the JMB, HuJI-B and the Ansarullah Bangla Team                             (ABT). However, constant eradication efforts by the Bangladeshi government (specifically the                     Sheikh Hasina administration) in the form of targeted counter-terrorismmeasures have led to                         the destruction of certain groups and formation of multiple factions within these outfits.  

Sources indicate that, militant infiltration increased more than threefold in 2016, compared to last year’s statistical data, with approximately 2,010 militants, mainly belonging to the Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (HuJI-B) crossing over into India.  

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The JMB remains the most potent out of thesemilitant groups. Themilitant groupwas formed                               in 1998, but gained prominence after its proscription in 2005 by the then Khaleda Zia-led                             Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government. Notably, opposition leader and Awami                   League-chief Sheikh Hasina had forced the BNP government for imposition of the ban, due to                             the arms training and radicalization provided by the JMB to its members as well as the                               potential threat the group posed to Dhaka’s security. However, no concrete steps were taken                           to halt the operations of the JMB, culminating into 500 simultaneous bombings in 63 of the 64                                 districts of Bangladesh on August 17, 2005. Following the incident, a comprehensive                       crackdown against the top leadership of the JMB (Majlis-e-Shura) was launched resulting in                         the execution of several JMB big-wigs. In the aftermath of this crackdown, the JMB split into                               three basic factions as shown in the infographic above.  

The old guard of the JMB formed a core group, which today stands completely depleted due to                                 the aforementioned executions. Another group, inspired by the Al-Qaeda aligned itself with                       the HuJI-B. The third faction, known as the JMBwas formed as an amalgamation of breakaway                               members from the Old JMB, HuJI-B, ABT and Bangladeshi militants living abroad, popularly                         known as the Neo-JMB. This faction claimed responsibility for the attack on the Gulshan Cafe                             

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in Dhaka’s diplomatic zone. The Neo-JMB supposedly seeks inspiration from the Islamic State                         (IS), with the IS’ propaganda ‘Dabiq’ magazine even declaring its complicity in the July 2016                             Gulshan attack.  

Indian intelligence agencies have indicated that JMB operatives have been successfully                     entering India through the Indo-Bangladesh border for several years. Further, a number of                         mosques and madrasas that have been constructed in towns along the border and have                           allegedly aided efforts of the JMB in recruiting, indoctrinating and trainingmilitants. A number                           of shocking revelations came to the fore following the Burdwan attack of 2014, which was                             perpetrated with the use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). Investigations revealed that                       the JMB has clandestinely formed cells in West Bengal, in the districts of Birbhum, Burdwan,                             Murshidabad and Nadia for facilitating its proposed operations in India. Similar bases were                         supposedly formed by the organization in neighboring state of Assam.  

Districts in West Bengal which have a JMB presence 

Giving further credence to this argument was the confession of a captured JMB operative, who                             brought to light the presence of multiple leaders of the JMB at aMadrasa in Nalbari district of                                   Assam to provide training and inspiration to Muslim youths with regards to the initiation of                             ‘Jihad’ against the Indian administration. These findings have raised questions in India                       pertaining to the degree of penetration achieved by groups such as JMB and HuJI-B.                           Furthermore, the developing Rohingya crisis and reported instances of militant activities by                       certain sections of the Myanmarese refugees as well as the support extended by international                           terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda to the Rohingyas might lead to further complications for                           both Bangladesh and India in dealing with the Rohingya exodus.  

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INDIAN ECONOMIC INVESTMENT IN BANGLADESH  

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Volume of bilateral trade between Bangladesh and India has currently reached approximately                       6.6 billion USD. However, according to sources there is a potential for this volume to                             quadruple. India is likely to extend its third credit line to Bangladesh (3.5 billion USD), with the                                 announcement slated to be made during PM Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Delhi. Earlier, during PM                             Modi’s visit to Dhaka, India had provided credit worth 2 billion USDwhile earlier a 800million                                 USD loan package was given to Bangladesh. Dhaka will reportedly use the funds infused in the                               nuclear, petrochemical, infrastructure, railways sectors as well as in the development of                       Special Economic Zones (SEZ).  

Exports from Bangladesh have doubled, after India provided duty-free access to all but 25                           tariff-lines in 2011. This was possible due to the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA)                             agreement. Average exports from Bangladesh were at approximately 550 million USD, but                       remained stagnant after a sudden rise. Trade deficit reduced to 4.76 billion USD in Fiscal Year                               (FY) 2016 from 5.57 billion USD in FY 14 and 5.3 billion in FY 15. This might be related to the                                         reduction in imports from India of Bangladeshi goods in the last three years.  

Earlier, during PM Modi’s visit to Dhaka, India had provided credit worth 2 billion USD                             while earlier a 800 million USD loan package was given to Bangladesh. Dhaka will                           reportedly use the funds infused in the nuclear, petrochemical, infrastructure,                   railways sectors as well as in the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZ).   

The ‘Blue Economy’ slogan, forwarded by PM Modi has found resonance in Bangladesh and in                             the SAARC countries region. Areas of mutual cooperation likely to be stressed on include                           exploration in the petrochemical sector, specifically development of hydrocarbon deposits in                     the Bay of Bengal, evolution of fisheries and increasing connectivity throughmaritime routes.                         Multi-nodal transit provided by India to Bangladesh with the aim of bolsteringmaritime trade                           with the usage of waterways has acted to help both countries on the economic front. The                               Ashuganj River Port in Bangladesh is one such example. The BCIM corridor, a Chinese                           initiative might further the cause of connectivity and link the Yunnan Province in China to                             West Bengal. The project involves the construction of an expressway fromKumning in Yunnan                           to Kolkata. The expressway will pass through Mandalay in Myanmar and Chittagong and                         Dhaka in Bangladesh. The corridor is expected to provide greater market access for goods,                           services and energy as well as the elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTB).  

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THE BCIM CORRIDOR 

The ‘Blue Economy’ slogan, forwarded by PM Modi has found resonance in Bangladesh                         and in the SAARC countries region. Areas of mutual cooperation likely to be stressed                           on include, exploration in the petrochemical sector, specifically development of                   hydrocarbon deposits in the Bay of Bengal, evolution of fisheries and increasing                       connectivity through maritime routes.  

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POLITICAL OPPOSITION TO INDO-BANGLADESH RELATIONS While economic and defense agreements between Bangladesh and India have been developing                       over the last decade, certain issues pertaining to the planned umbrella defense agreement and                           certain development projects have led to diplomatic tensions and multiple protests in                       Bangladesh. While the defense deal with India will help Dhaka in expanding its purview with                             regards to procurement of arms and training for its defense forces, the deal has raised                             concerns in the country and has been pursued by the primary opposition party, the BNP. BNP’s                               founder, Ziaur Rahman was the architect of Sino-Bangladesh relations, thus the current                       opposition to the Indo-Bangladesh agreementmight originate from supposed historically close                     relations between the Khaleda Zia-led political outfit and its proximity to China. Further, the                           execution and arrests of BNP leaders by the Sheikh Hasina government in the last two years, in                                 connection to war crimes committed during the Liberation War of 1971, in which India played                             a decisive part, are likely to have been instrumental in the opposition displayed by the BNP to                                 the engagement. That said, given that the BNP ranks have been considerably exhausted                         following a targeted campaign launched by Sheikh Hasina against the opposition party, the                         BNP lacks the leverage required to force the incumbent government’s hand.  

The Rampal Coal Powered Plant, a 1,320 megawatt project, has been a matter of contention                             for both countries. The plant’s location has been the biggest hurdle for the governments of                             Bangladesh and India, given that it is located at a world heritage site, the Sundarbans                             marshlands, home to a diverse ecological system and also to the indigenous Royal Bengal Tiger.                             UNESCO has also remained firm on its opposition to the plant and called upon the incumbent                               government to scrap the project on October 20, 2016. The power plant has been opposed by                               activist groups as well as the BNP citing that the Indian government has vested interests in                               constructing the plant and India would benefit more from the plant, rather than Bangladesh                           which is likely to suffer environmental and monetary losses in the short term. The recurring                             protests over the plant, few of which have been violent, have provided a perfect sample on                               how environmental activism plays a major role in blocking projects that are perceived to be                             beneficial for the overall development of the country. However, in the case of the Rampal                             Power Plant, the concerns of the environmentalists can be regarded as legitimate due to the                             supposed vast effects it is liable to have on the world heritage site. Moreover, unilateral steps                               taken by the Indian government with regards to goods such as the imposition of a dumping                               duty in 2016 on Bangladeshi jute products and chemicals such as Hydrogen Peroxidemight act                             to deteriorate bilateral relations but should affect the semantics of various agreements                       between India and Bangladesh.   

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Source: Bangladesh Poribesh Andolan, Government Pension Fund of Norway & National Committee for protection of oil, gas natural & other resources 

The recurring protests over the plant, few of which have been violent, have provided a                             perfect sample on how environmental activism plays a major role in blocking projects                         that are perceived to be beneficial for the overall development of the country.   

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FORECASTS   ● The Indo-Bangladesh relationship is liable to progress in the coming days and years,                         

specifically if the Sheikh Hasina administration manages a reelection and                   consolidates power at the centre. India on the diplomatic front has remained silent                         on allegations of human rights violations against the incumbent government with                     regards to execution opposition leaders and targeted arrests. Reciprocation in the                     form of support to India on the Kashmir issue and especially the Uri attack, with the                               Bangladeshi boycott of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation                   (SAARC) which was supposed to be held in Islamabad in November 2016 has                         strengthened the alliance. Bangladesh will reportedly extend its support to Delhi, if                       India-Pakistan have a military altercation in the future. This stand of the Bangladeshi                         government can also be traced back to the 1971 Liberation War and Pakistan’s                         wartime excesses in East Pakistan.  

● China’s growing interests and investments in Bangladesh will remain a cause of                       concern for India as two other SAARC countries, namely Sri Lanka and Pakistan are                           already heavily dependent on Beijing’s economic aid. India is likely to counter these                         overtures by China by extending its own financial support to Dhaka. However, if                         Delhi can match the massive credit lines extended to Bangladesh by China remains a                           question to be answered. In the current scenario, India can only rely on warm                           relations between the two countries and diplomatic means (in the form of various                         agreements adhered to by the nations) at its disposal to garner the support of Dhaka                             on crucial issues.  

● The status-quo on the Teesta Water-sharing agreement will primarily remain, as the                       agreement has been converted into a regional political issue in West Bengal by the                           AITC government led by Mamata Banerjee. Further, the centre-ruling Bharatiya                   Janata Party (BJP) is also looking to enlarge its political base in West Bengal and                             might shy away from taking a strong stance in favor of Bangladesh. That said,                           Mamata Banerjee has taken a more conciliatory viewpoint on the water sharing                       agreement, indicating that some headway will be achieved in the near future. In the                           case that West Bengal agrees to the water sharing agreement with Dhaka, other                         states in India that share the waters of Teesta are liable to follow suit and accept the                                 centre’s proposal.   

● The umbrella defence pact to be signed between Bangladesh and India has faced stiff                           opposition from certain sections of Bangladesh’s defense community and particularly                   from opposition parties such as the BNP. Keeping this in mind, Sheikh Hasina might                           be advised to not directly finalize the defence pact at this juncture. AMemorandum                           of Understanding (MoU) might be signed by the nations to further defense                       cooperation and to placate the scepticism emanating from Bangladesh. However, as                     earlier mentioned this might act to minimize Dhaka’s range with respect to                       procurement of defense equipment and training while also increasing its reliance on                       China for military aid. The Bangladeshi government might want to maintain a                       geopolitical balance between China and India while receiving dividends from both                     

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the countries to further its economic progress.  ● The recurring infiltration across the international border has continued to trouble                     

the Indian government and BSF, as border towns along the Indo-Bangladesh border                       have allegedly turned into safe havens for outfits such as the JMB andHuJI-B.While                             the Bangladesh government has displayed an iron-will in combating terrorism and                     internal militant elements, the shadow of radicalization and attacks from militant                     cells in Bangladesh and India remains potent. That said, after the effective crackdown                         on the JMB and its affiliated outfits, the militant groups originating in Bangladesh                         have faced a comprehensive depletion. Further, following the Burdwan attack, the                     Indian government has been cognizant of the looming threat of Bangladeshi                     militancy and the danger it poses to communal harmony in India, specifically the                         border states of Assam and West Bengal, where the Muslim population has been                         ever-increasing.  

● The Indo-Bangladesh economic partnership is destined to grow at an outstanding                     rate if political stability persists in Dhaka. Several collaborative projects between the                       two countries are in the pipeline and a number of agreements have been signed                           aiming at economic development in Bangladesh. Connectivity has been an area of                       concentration for bilateral relations and construction and maintenance of roads and                     waterways have remained vital for the growing trade in South Asia. In this context,                           Indian investments in transportation, infrastructure and marine trade are liable to                     increase. While India might oppose the One Belt One Road initiative, proposed by                         China, it is likely to approve of the BCIM corridor due to the advantages it provides                               with regards to linking important trade hubs in neighboring countries. India’s only                       cause of worry with theOne Belt One Road initiative seems to be its passage through                               disputed territories in Jammu and Kashmir.  

● The political opposition to India’s growing economic interests should not act to                       impede further engagement, given that the opposition parties in Bangladesh are                     currently battled and bruised and face obliteration in the case the Sheikh Hasina                         government retains power in the 2019 general elections. Projects such as the Rampal                         Power Plant will give essential fodder required for projecting an anti-India front in                         Bangladesh and the Indian government might act to not involve itself in future                         projects which might be deemed a hindrance in furthering bilateral relations. Strong                       measures taken by the Modi administration with the levying of duties on dumping of                           jute projects and other commodities might increase the friction between the                     administrations in Delhi and Dhaka, however the immense benefits likely to be                       achieved through mutual cooperation are liable to supercede minor impediments.   

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