TECHNOLOGY DISRUPTION in Oil Market
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TECHNOLOGY DISRUPTION
in Oil Market
CoalFirewood
1781 1908
Oil Gas
ENERGY REVOLUTION
Renewables
1960 Present
Climate Change
Energy resources have changed throughout the history.
Before Christ
(B.C.)
2
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
KEY CHALLENGES
AGENDA
CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3
NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
KEY CHALLENGESNEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
AGENDA
CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3
ENERGY TRENDSCHAPTER 1: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Accelerated energy technology development for better living
Electric MobilityRenewable EnergyDigital Technology
5
ENERGY TRENDS
Electric MobilityRenewable Energy
CHAPTER 1: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Digital Technology
Accelerated energy technology development for better living
6
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA, Wood Mackenzie
Solar and wind are now cost-
competitive for power sector
Wind costs
50%by 2035
Solar costs
60%2025
and by a further
20% by 2035
by
RENEWABLE ENERGY TO BE MAJOR SOURCE OF POWER GENERATIONCHAPTER 1: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Solar and wind continuously grow and replace fossil fuels in power sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Other
CoalFossil Fuels
Renewables
48%Solar &Wind
Percentage of power generation by source
7
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS IN AUTOMOTIVE SECTORCHAPTER 1: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
2 wheels 3 wheels Passenger Cars
8
Car Sharing Autonomous
TechnologyImproved PHEV/BEV
System
Technology advancement supports EV adoption in the future
Electric Mobility in Other Segments
Mobility Development
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
KEY CHALLENGESNEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
AGENDA
CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3
Source: A guide to electric vehicles, consumer NZ, 2017.
TECHNOLOGY DRIVES ELECTRIC VEHICLECHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
PETROL
(ICE)HEV
(Hybrid)
PHEV
(Plug in Hybrid)
BEV
(Battery)FCEV
(Fuel Cell)
10
Source: A guide to electric vehicles, consumer NZ, 2017.
TECHNOLOGY DRIVES ELECTRIC VEHICLECHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
PHEV and BEV can be charged by electricity from an external source.
PETROL
(ICE)HEV
(Hybrid)
PHEV
(Plug in Hybrid)
BEV
(Battery)FCEV
(Fuel Cell)
11
Sources : IEA Global EV Outlook 2019
CONTINUATION OF EV GROWTH vs TECHNOLOGY AND COUNTRY POLICY
CHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
2018 EV Car Sales
2 M
in 87 M of Total
Car Sales
EV Car Sale
2013 2018
China
1,062
2013 2018
EU356
U.S.
2013 2018
294
Unit: Thousands
* EV : PHEV and BEV
12
POLICY
CONSUMER
TECHNOLOGY
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR EVCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
13
POLICY
CONSUMER
TECHNOLOGY
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR EVCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
14
Source : Questionnaire From Autolist (20 Aug. 2019)
Driving Range
Automotive Price42%
Charging Station38%
Charging Time28%
43%
CONSUMER IS THE MAIN INFLUENCER FOR PUSHING EV CHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
What are the main concerns to buy or not to buy EV?
15
POLICY
CONSUMER
TECHNOLOGY
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR EVCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
2016 2020 2024 2028
(USD)
Battery Powertrain
Vehicle ICE (Medium)
48% 42% 36% 31% 27% 24% 21% 18%
U.S. Medium-Sized BEV Price Breakdown,
ICE Price & Share of Battery Costs
Sources : Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2018 Costs of EV car
42% Battery≈ 54% Vehicle≈ 4% Powertrain
2018
TECHNOLOGY REDUCES BATTERY COSTSCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
Battery costs make up of almost 50% of EV production costs.
17
Sources : Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Developing in battery efficiency led to 4 times increase in driving range in the
past 10 years
TECHNOLOGY INCREASES DRIVING RANGECHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
18
Source : Charging the Future: Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Vehicle Adoption, Harvard Kennedy School, 2018
LEVEL 1: ORDINARY CHARGERS MINIMALSlow
Charger
FastCharger
CHARGING TIME AND SPEEDCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
Fast Charge development in progress, cost remains the key challenge.
Charger Classifications
LEVEL 2: CHARGERS BASIC
• Charging time 27 hrs for 1.4 KW• Residential
• Charging time 6 hrs for 6.6 KW• Residential and public
LEVEL 3: FAST CHARGERS FAST• Charging time 45 mins for 50 KW• Public
LEVEL 4: SUPERCHARGERS • Charging time 15 mins for 150 KW• Public
LEVEL 5: ULTRA-FAST • Charging time 6 mins for 350 KW• Public
ADVANCED
ULTRA-FAST
19
*Time taken to charge 100 miles
POLICY
CONSUMER
TECHNOLOGY
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR EVCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
20
2025 no new gasoline or diesel car sales 2030 all
vehicles emission free
no new gasoline or diesel car sales
2040 No sales of gasoline/ diesel vehicle
2030 ban import ICE
ban fossil fuel cars
phase out ICE
2050 ban
Policy on vehicle
National commitment is a major influencer to push EV forward
COUNTRY POLICY CHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
21
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Forecast
New EV Cars Sales
Sources : Bloomberg New Energy Finance, MIIT
Thousands
TARGET: New-energy vehiclesPHEV, BEV and FCEV sale 3M units in 2025 Tax Reduction
/ Exemption
InfrastructureR&D
Subsidy
COUNTRY POLICY
CHINA POLICY SHIFTING EV INDUSTRYCHAPTER 2: NEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
Environmental concerns in China stimulate Chinese government to raise EV car
22
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
KEY CHALLENGESNEW ERA OF TRANSPORTATION
AGENDA
CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS FOR EVCHAPTER 3: KEY CHALLENGES
24
STRONG CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE
FURTHER TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT TO MAKE EV AFFORDABLE FOR MASS MARKET
CONSISTENT & FIRMGOVERNMENT
POLICY
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