Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update. Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, Lauri Arvola, Peter A. Staehr, Evelyn Gaiser, Ian Jones, Kathleen Weathers, Gesa Weyhenmeyer, Charles Chiu review/case studies/conceptual model
Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update. Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, Lauri Arvola, Peter A. Staehr,
Mar 27, 2015
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Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future
climates paper - an update.
Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, Lauri Arvola, Peter A. Staehr, Evelyn Gaiser, Ian Jones, Kathleen Weathers,
Gesa Weyhenmeyer, Charles Chiu
review/case studies/conceptual model
Episodic pulse event (EPE)
Definition
A sudden and short-lived change in the magnitude of a physical, chemical or biological parameter in a lake
that is distinct from previous background levels.
UPSTREAM LAKE DOWNSTREAM
StratificationPhysical impactChemical impactBiological impact
CA B
A. Episodic flood eventsB. Episodic mixing eventsC. Episodic stratification events
PRIMARY DRIVERS - METEROLOGICAL
UPSTREAM LAKE DOWNSTREAM
StratificationPhysical impactChemical impactBiological impact
CA B
IMPACTS
PhysicalChemicalBiological
UPSTREAM LAKE DOWNSTREAM
StratificationPhysical impactChemical impactBiological impact
CA B
IMPACTS
PhysicalChemicalBiological
UPSTREAM LAKE DOWNSTREAM
StratificationPhysical impactChemical impactBiological impact
CA B
IMPACTS
PhysicalChemicalBiological
Ecological regime shift
shift to more persistent, alternative state
Site Area
ha
Maxdepth
m
Trophicstatus
BlelhamUK
10 14.5 Eu
SlotssøDenmark
22 8.0 Eu
L. LeaneIreland
1990 64.0 Meso-eu
Yuan Yang L.Taiwan
4 4.5 Oligo
L. AnnieUSA
37 21.0 Oligo
L. PääjärviFinland
1340 85.0 Oligo-meso
Annie
Slotsso
Paajarvi
Yuan Yang
Leane
Blelham
Slotto, Denmark, 2006 Leane, Ireland,1997
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
7/8/06 21/8/06 4/9/06 18/9/06 2/10/06
Te
mp
era
ture
(oC
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Win
d s
pe
ed
cu
be
d (
m3 s
-3)a
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
28/6/05 12/7/05 26/7/05 9/8/05 23/8/05 6/9/05
Te
mp
era
ture
(oC
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ho
url
y p
rec
ipit
ati
on
(m
m)b
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
7/8/06 21/8/06 4/9/06 18/9/06 2/10/06
Te
mp
era
ture
dff
ere
nc
e (
oC
)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Ox
yg
en
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n (
mg
L-1
)
c
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
28/6/05 12/7/05 26/7/05 9/8/05 23/8/05 6/9/05
Te
mp
era
ture
dif
fere
nc
e (
oC
)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Ox
yg
en
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n (
mg
L-1
)d
2
Blelham Tarn, 2006 YYL, 2005
Zm
ix(m
)Su
rfac
e D
isso
lved
Oxy
gen
(mg
L-1
)
6
7
8
9
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
TS Fay
Zm
ix(m
)Su
rfac
e D
isso
lved
Oxy
gen
(mg
L-1
) Bru
nt V
äisä
läB
uoya
ncy
Freq
uenc
y (N
, s-1
)
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
TS Fay
Bru
nt V
äisä
läB
uoya
ncy
Freq
uenc
y (N
, s-1
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
TS Fay
Bru
nt V
äisä
läB
uoya
ncy
Freq
uenc
y (N
, s-1
)
0
2
4
6
8
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
Win
d Sp
eed
(m s
-1)
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
TS Fay
0
2
4
6
8
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
Win
d Sp
eed
(m s
-1)
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
TS Fay
0
2
4
6
8
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
8/1
7
8/1
8
8/1
9
8/2
0
8/2
1
8/2
2
8/2
3
8/2
4
8/2
5
8/2
6
8/2
7
8/2
8
Win
d Sp
eed
(m s
-1)
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
TS Fay
y = -0.0696x + 63.535R2 = 0.7416
50
60
70
0 50 100 150
CUM PPT (mm)
PA
R (%
Tra
nsm
issi
on Z
0.32
m)
a b
c d
Tropical storm Fay, Lake Annie, 2008
high
Resilien
ce l
ow
low Severity high
LOW
MED
HIGH
RISK
Projected changes in EPEs• Increase in severity• Increase in frequency• Increase in both severity and frequency
Impact of projected climate change
d
low Severity high
high
Resilience
low
c
low Severity high
b
low Severity high
a
low Severity high
BF
L
PYA
Projected changes in EPEs• Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right• Increase in frequency• Increase in both severity and frequency
Impact of projected climate change
d
low Severity high
high
Resilience
low
c
low Severity high
b
low Severity high
a
low Severity high
BF
L
PYA
Projected changes in EPEs• Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right• Increase in frequency – matrix contracts upwards• Increase in both severity and frequency
Impact of projected climate change
d
low Severity high
high
Resilience
low
c
low Severity high
b
low Severity high
a
low Severity high
BF
L
PYA
Projected changes in EPEs• Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right• Increase in frequency – matrix contracts upwards• Increase in both severity and frequency – contracts + shifts to right
Impact of projected climate change
d
low Severity high
high
Resilience
low
c
low Severity high
b
low Severity high
a
low Severity high
BF
L
PYA
Impact of projected climate change
d
low Severity high
high
Resilience
low
c
low Severity high
b
low Severity high
a
low Severity high
BF
L
PYA
(IPCC Synthesis report, 2001)
CO2 emissions peak
CO2 stabilisation
Temperature stabilisation
Today 1000 yrs
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