Impact of recent weather events on Australian agriculture Jammie Penm Chief Commodity Analyst.

Impact of recent weather events on Australian agriculture

Jammie Penm

Chief Commodity Analyst

Impact on Australian commodities

Excessive rainfall in November to mid-December:• wheat export forecast down by $480 million in 2010-11• sugar export forecast down by $470 million in 2010-11

The floods in eastern Australia in late December-January:• loss of agricultural production of an additional $1 billion in 2010-11;

including $600-700 million in winter crops $225 million in fruit and vegetables $150 million in cotton $30 million in sorghum

Coal exports 15 million tonnes lower, or $2 to 2.5 billion between December 2010 and March 2011

Impact of Cyclone Yasi

• Banana production in Far North Queensland, valued at $384 million, accounts for around 90 per cent of Australian production

• Sugar production in the region, valued at $240 million in 2008-09, accounts for 20 per cent of Australian production

• No major damage to mining operation, infrastructure and ports

Banana consignments from north Queensland and banana price

Fruit and vegetable prices

In the Melbourne market:

• prices for many vegetables and fruit have shown signs of easing, after increasing in late December and January

• prices for bananas have increased significantly

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables - Melbourne

Index 04Dec=100

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables - Melbourne

Index 04Dec=100

Weekly wholesale prices for selected fruit - Melbourne

Index 04Dec=100

Total winter crop production

Murray–Darling Basin water storage

Total summer crop production

Conclusions

• Loss of agricultural production and exports of around $2.3 billion in 2010-11.

• Prices for many vegetables and fruit have shown signs of easing after floods.

• Markedly higher crop production nationally despite the impact.