WEBINAR SERIES INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY Q4 ENERGY OUTLOOK UPDATE: WIND PPAS, RATE UPDATES, AND REGULATORY IMPACTS December 1, 2016
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WEBINAR SERIES INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
Q4 ENERGY OUTLOOK UPDATE: WIND PPAS, RATE UPDATES, AND REGULATORY IMPACTS
December 1, 2016
WELCOMEOUR PRESENTERS
IAN BOWMAN | PRODUCT MANAGEMENT
DIRECTOR
JONATHAN LEE | SENIOR ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE MANAGER
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
TODAY’S TOPICS
WIND POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS (PPA) More corporations are beginning to take on wind power purchase
agreements in order to meet their high renewables targets.
ENERGY MARKET UPDATE: Q4 2016 Natural Gas Production, Storage: Supply rebalancing with demand What a potential La Niña could mean for this upcoming winter
RATE AND REGULATORY IMPACTS FOR 2017 Utilities looking to increase reliability, while weighing the traditional business model with
emerging technologies. Regulatory environment facing uncertainty heading into 2017.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
WIND POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS (PPAS)
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RMI BUSINESS RENEWABLES MEETING – NOVEMBER 17TH RECAP BACKGROUND: A few corporate (Fortune 100) have successfully
completed Wind PPAs Reporting back that it was difficult, but worthwhile
PURPOSE OF THE NOV 17TH MEETING: How can we learn from these initial deals and
overcome barriers So it is easier for many more companies to use PPAs
TO MAKE PPAS ACCESSIBLE FOR THE NEXT LEVEL OF CLIENTS . . . Deal sizes need to come down to around 5MW Which requires an Aggregator – Developers are not
geared for this role Buyers want shorter tenors and don’t want basis risk Standard T&C contracts (like NAESB) Most buyers need strong financial incentive There is little guidance on how much fractional deals
can be considered to “cause” new renewables
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Background: A few corporate (Fortune 100) have successfully completed Wind PPAs Reporting back that it was difficult, but worthwhile. Purpose of the Nov 17th meeting: How can we learn from these initial deals and overcome barriers �so it is easier for many more companies to use PPAs� Corporate Wind PPAs so far . . . Cause new renewables projects to be built (Additionality) Are massive and long 50-200 MW with 12-25 years offtake Deal Cycle is easily 1 to 2.5 years with deal teams of 2-4 staff years� + consultants & lawyers & custom contract negotiation Accept wholesale market risks (like basis) that are not widely �understood by buyers. Require financiers creatively to be able to understand 25 year ‘creditworthiness’� To make PPAs accessible for the next level of clients . . . Deal sizes need to come down to around 5MW Which requires an Aggregator – Developers are not geared for this role. Buyers want shorter tenors and don’t want basis risk Standard T&C contracts (like NAESB) Most buyers need strong financial incentive Buyers vary on how much they want/need a strong claim �around additionality – There is little guidance on how much�fractional deals can be considered to “cause” new renewables. Developers need . . . Educated clients, with great credit, ready to commit efficiently 1-2+ year deals with high uncertainty are killers for them.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
INDICATIVE LEVELIZED PPA COST FOR NEW WIND CAPACITY IN 2018
http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf
$34 weighted average represents a good wind area like Texas. Unsubsidized, it might be around $51, but includes a Production Tax credit of ~$17 due to ‘Commencing Construction’ in 2017.
PTC Steps down Each year until 2019 Based on when Project “Commenced Construction” Year PTC (Approximate)2016. . . .$232017. . . .$172018. . . .$142019. . . . $92020. . . . $0
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SUBSIDIZED WIND HAS DRIVEN DOWN WHOLESALE PRICES IN TXIMPLICATIONS: In 2013 & 2014, it was easier to portray PPAs as ‘cost saving’ vs higher wholesale grid prices but as wind has saturated the market, wholesale prices have dropped. Going forward, PTC Phases out, so PPAs will climb, but TX wholesale market will not likely recover quickly, requiring more patient outlook from potential future PPA buyers
$/M
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Impact of PTC Step Down“Commenced Construction” Year PTC (Approximate)
2016. . . .$232017. . . .$172018. . . .$142019. . . . $92020. . . . $0
2017
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2018
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West TX Grid Prices
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WHAT COULD CAUSE THESE SAGS IN WIND CAPACITY ADDITIONS?
1. 2017-2018, similar to 2013-2014 are rebuilding yearsafter late last minute PTC extensions. New deals are signedbut few are completed til 2019
1
2 By 2022-2023, PTC is fully phased out, and wholesale Markets in prime wind areas like TX are assumed saturated
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
KEY TAKEAWAYS ON WIND PPAS
LARGE COMPANIES ARE USING THEM TO GREEN LARGE CHUNKS OF LOAD AT A TIME WITHOUT HAVING TO WORRY ABOUT SPECIFIC SITE ISSUES THAT ARISE WITH ON-SITE APPROACHES.
IF YOU THINK YOU WANT TO DO PPAS, NOW IS THE TIME TO ACCELERATE YOUR EVALUATIONS TO ENSURE YOU CAN MAXIMIZE PTC CREDIT.
SAVINGS AND STRONG CLAIMS TO ADDITIONALITY (CAUSING RENEWABLES TO BE BUILT) WILL BE TOUGHER IN SMALLER DEALS.
DON’T UNDERESTIMATE WHOLESALE PRICE RISKS.
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Q4 2016 ENERGY MARKET UPDATE
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ELECTRIC AND NATURAL GAS MARKET DRIVERS1 December 2016
Bearish – Market Influencers Driving Prices Lower:
Natural Gas Production – Declined from February high, but still in line with last year at this time.
Natural Gas Storage – Reached record high of 4,047 Bcf prior to withdrawal season.
Economy – Although Q3 2016 GDP grew at 3.2% annualized rate, sustained growth yet to be realized.
Coal – Weak coal prices lower baseline electric generation costs.
Regional Generation Variations – Subsidizedwind generation in West Texas, localized shale in PJM providing cheap gas to power plants, and incremental pipeline capacity easing in the Northeast.
Bullish – Market Influencers Driving Prices Higher:
Demand – Gas-fired generation remains elevated, residential/commercial heating demand rising.
Weather Forecast – Winter temperatures forecast to be colder than last year, supporting wholesale natural gas and electric prices.
LNG – Sabine Pass LNG exporting supplies to global markets.
Mexico Pipeline Exports – Exports up to 3.8 Bcf/day.
ISO Reliability – Retiring coal plants forcing ISO’s to evaluate grid reliability.
Interest Rate Hike – Fed considering a December interest rate hike, which would increase the cost of capital and could slow natural gas and oil production.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Storage – Injections to storage resume at slower-than-normal rate. Following last week's first summertime net withdrawal since 2006, net injections into storage totaled 29 Bcf, compared with the five-year (2011-15) average net injection of 53 Bcf and last year's net injections of 57 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks total 3,317 Bcf, 440 Bcf above the five-year average and 361 Bcf above last year at this time. This week marks the 14th consecutive week that the gap of working gas stocks compared with the five-year average declined. When the refill season began on April 1, working gas stocks were 874 Bcf above the five-year average. Production –Production levels this week were quite close to last year's levels despite the historically low natural gas rig count, which points to ongoing increases in rig efficiency. This idea is supported by data from EIA'sDrilling Productivity Report, which shows the highest level of gas production per rig since the dataset began in 2007. Demand (Bu) – Consumption falls. During the report week, total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 1%, according to data from PointLogic. Power burn for electricity generation declined by 1% week over week. Industrial sector consumption stayed constant, averaging 19.4 Bcf/d. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption fell 7% from last week's levels, averaging 7.2 Bcf/d. Natural gas exports to Mexico went down 2%. Weather – Temperatures fall from week-ago levels, but remain higher than normal. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 78°F, 3°F more than the normal and 1°F more than last year at this time. Last week, temperatures reached 80°F on average in the Lower 48 states—their highest levels for the year. Cooling degree-days (CDD) in the Lower 48 states totaled 88, compared with last week's 105 CDD. Tropical Storms – CSU early 2015 Forecast: 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane. Recap: 11 named storms, 4 Hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes LNG – U.S. LNG exports. The natural gas pipeline flows to the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal averaged 0.9 Bcf/d, 4% lower than the previous week. Three vessels (LNG-carrying capacity 9.3 Bcf) left the terminal last week. One vessel (LNG-carrying capacity 3.4 Bcf) is currently loading at the terminal. Economy (N) – Employment Situation report for Jul showed 255k jobs created. Well above consensus at 185k. Unemployment at 4.9%. Q2 2016 GDP +1.2%�
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12-Month Strip Lows1/28/2002: $2.374/19/2012: $2.562/25/2016: $2.10
On February 25th, the strip fell to its lowest level since early-1999.
Since that point, the strip has climbed back above $3.00, which is slightly higher than 2015 levels.
Katrina & Rita
Polar Vortex
Commodity Bubble & Collapse
Cold Winter, Supply/Demand
rebalance
Shale Gas Revolution
Supply Glut
Hurricane Ivan
NATURAL GAS 12-MONTH STRIP HOVERING AROUND $3.00$/MMBtu – 30 November 2016
Budget Impact:Natural gas 12-month strip is 34% above last year at this time and 56% above February’s 17-year low.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Currently at 76 days and haven’t surpassed 2.75.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
12-MonthRolling Strip
NYMEX Correlation
ERCOT HZ 93.7%
NY ISO J 68.1%
PJM West 56.9%
NEPOOL 52.3%
MISO 84.6%
PG&E NP-15 94.6%
ELECTRIC 12-MONTH STRIPS STEADY BEFORE WINTER$/MWh – 30 November 2016
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ERCOT AVG NY ISO J PJM NEPOOL MISO PG&E NP15 W
Budget Impact:Wholesale electric 12-month strip 6-9% higher than last year in ERCOT, MISO, and PG&E. However, 5-15% lower than last year in New York, PJM, and New England.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
WINTER 2016/2017 OUTLOOKNOAA, AccuWeather, Farmers’ Almanac – November 2016
Cold temperatures are expected to spread from the Midwest through New England. The severity could depend on how low the jet stream dips. Regional price volatility likely in those regions.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north Temperature Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S., extending northward through the central Rockies, in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in northern New England. Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from Montana to western Michigan. The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation. Drought Drought will likely persist through the winter in many regions currently experiencing drought, including much of California and the Southwest Drought is expected to persist and spread in the southeastern U.S. and develop in the southern Plains. New England will see a mixed bag, with improvement in the western parts and persistence to the east. Drought improvement is anticipated in northern California, the northern Rockies, the northern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
LA NIÑA WINTER IMPACTNOAA, AccuWeather – November 2016
NOAA saying 55% chance of La Niña prior to winter.
Current 3-month running average SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region -0.7oC below-normal.
All La Niña events have occurred within 2 years of El Niño.
La Niña typically brings colder-than-normal winters to
Midwest, Northeast.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
AccuWeather: Building El Nino to bring wetter conditions to the south, hot west worsening drought, warm northeast. Weather Services International (WSI): Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “As the 2015 El Nino event continues to emerge and strengthen, we expect the prevailing pattern over the next few months to acquire more of an El Nino ‘flavor’, with above-normal temperatures north and west, and below-normal temperatures south and east. The drought in the West will accentuate the summer heat there, as we expect the most anomalous summer warmth to occur in the Pacific Northwest. By later in the summer, as the El Nino event continues to strengthen, more significant below-normal temperatures will become more likely across the north-central and northeastern US.” The most widely used definitions of El Niño and La Niña involve sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the eastern tropical Pacific (see map below). To qualify as an El Niño event, according to the definition used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, SSTs must remain at or above 0.5°C (about 1°F) for at least three months across the region labeled Niño3.4 NOAA provides historical records for temperatures in this key region. A “moderate” event would see readings holding at or above 1.0°C, and a “strong” event would be 1.5°C or higher. Sometimes the term “El Niño conditions” is used when SST readings have hit the El Niño threshold but haven’t been in place long enough to qualify as an El Niño event. 2013 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 2014 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 2015 0.6 0.5 0.6
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Record high storage entering heating season at 4,047 Bcf.
Even though injections were below-normal throughout much of the year, prolonged mild temperatures in October led to higher builds late-season.
Storage levels currently 1.3% above last year and 5.6% above the five-year average.
GAS SUPPLIES SET RECORD HIGH END OF SEASONEIA – November 2016
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Last year record refill 2789 Bcf Five year avg: 2192 Bcf YearLowPeak 2000 1153 2748 2001 738 3254 2002 1497 3172 2003 693 3187 2004 1028 3327 20051248 3282 2006 1695 3461 2007 1572 3545 2008 1242 3488 2009 1665 3837 2010 1660 3843 2011 1585 3852 2012 2369 3929 2013 1673 3834 2014 822 3611 2015 1461 4009 201624684047
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Natural gas production peaked in Feb 2016 at 79.4 Bcf/day and bottomed out in Oct 2016 at 75.9 Bcf/day.
During 2017, production is expected to climb above 80 Bcf/day.
DECLINING NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RECOVEREIA – November 2016
Budget Impact:Slower production has tightened the supply and demand balance, resulting in higher prices.60
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Natural Gas Rig CountTotal marketed production (left axis) billion cubic feet per day
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.4 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. EIA expects production to start rising in November as a result of increases in drilling activity and infrastructure build-out that connects natural gas production to demand centers. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an average of 2.9 Bcf/d from the 2016 level. Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports, contribute to the Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $2.50/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to $3.12/MMBtu in 2017. NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggest that a price range from $2.01/MMBtu to $4.84/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level. EIA projects that LNG gross exports will rise to an average of 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016, with the startup of Chenier's Sabine Pass LNG liquefaction plant in Louisiana, which sent out its first cargo in February 2016. EIA projects that gross LNG exports will average 1.3 Bcf/d in 2017, as Sabine Pass ramps up capacity. With expected growth in gross exports, net imports of natural gas decline from 2.6 Bcf/d in 2015 to a small amount of net exports in 2017. The United States is expected to become a net exporter of natural gas during the second quarter of 2017.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
GENERATION CAPACITY SHIFTING TO NATURAL GAS AND RENEWABLESEIA – November 2016
U.S. to add about 11.6 GW of natural gas-fired, 6.8 GW solar, and 7.1 GW wind generation capacity between Sept 2016 and Aug 2017.
U.S. to retire about 3.1 GW of coal-fired and 2.4 GW nuclear generation capacity between Sept 2016 and Aug 2017.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
OUTLOOK: NATURAL GAS PRICINGEIA – November 2016
In general, pricing is expected to gradually rise through 2017. The EIA anticipates Henry Hub spot prices will average $2.50/MMBtu through 2016 and $3.12 in 2017.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Growing domestic natural gas consumption, along with higher pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas exports, contribute to the Henry Hub natural gas spot price rising from an average of $2.50/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2016 to $3.12/MMBtu in 2017. NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggest that a price range from $2.01/MMBtu to $4.84/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation of Henry Hub natural gas prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
OUTLOOK: COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC PRICINGEIA – November 2016
Average 2017 Commercial Rates Compared to 2016:
East North Atlantic: +2.2%Mid-Atlantic: +2.0%New England: +2.2%Pacific: +1.9%South Atlantic: +3.2%South Central: +2.9%
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East North Central Mid-Atlantic New EnglandPacific South Atlantic South Central
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Census division includes States of IL, IN, MI, OH, and WI East North Central Census division includes States of NJ, NY, and PA Mid-Atlantic Census division includes States of CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, and VT New England Census division includes States of CA, OR, and WA Pacific Census division includes DC and States of DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, and WV South Atlantic Census division includes States of AR, LA, OK, and TX South Central
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PROMINENT ELECTRIC RATE CASES IN 2017November 2016
Colorado Springs Utilities: +12.5% Jan 2017 PEPCO MD: +10.0% Oct 2016 Minnesota Power: +9.6% Jan 2017 Penelec: +9.1% Jan 2017 United Illuminating: +8.4% July 2017 Ameren MO: +7.8% June 2017 Gulf Power FL: +7.6% July 2017 Arizona Public Service: +6.1% July 2017 NIPSCO: +6.0% Oct 2016 Atlantic City Electric/JCPL: +5.8% Jan 2017 City of Seattle: +5.5% Jan 2017 Tucson Electric Power: +5.5% Jan 2017 Duke FL: +5.5% Jan 2017 Florida Power & Light: +4.4% Jan 2017 LADWP: +3.9% Jan 2017 First Energy OH: Base Rate Freeze 2017 AEP OH: -3.0% Jan 2017 Duke Energy NC: -6.3% Jan 2017
NV
Presenter
Presentation Notes
FPL's infrastructure, including the implementation of innovative technologies that help reduce and shorten outages, generate power more efficiently and curtail fuel consumption and air emissions. http://newsroom.fpl.com/2016-11-29-PSC-approves-four-year-rate-agreement-keeping-typical-customer-bills-low-through-2020-while-advancing-affordable-clean-energy-and-best-in-class-reliability
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REGULATORY/RATE DESIGN 2017November 2016
REGULATORY Clean Power Plan – DC Circuit Court of Appeals heard
arguments, ruling pending. Potential softening or elimination of CPP under new administration
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule – EPA reworking the rule; MD, NY, CT, MA, NH, RI, and VT petitioned EPA to force Midwest states to limit emissions
Nuclear Power Plant Subsidies – Illinois and New York Renewable Portfolio Standards – states increasing
targets (HI 100% by 2045, VT 75% by 2032, NY, CA, OR, RI, DC 50%)
RATE DESIGN New York Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) Net Metering debate continues between industry and
utilities. Utilities exploring default time-of-use rates for all
customers, increased fixed charges Energy storage
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A mammoth, wide-ranging energy measure under consideration by the Illinois legislature that would provide billions of dollars in support for energy efficiency, microgrids, and—most controversially—the Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear power plants made it out of a key committee on Nov. 29 and could see a final vote by the end of the week. An August decision by the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) approving New York’s Clean Energy Standard included a provision requiring the state’s investor-owned utilities and other energy suppliers to pay for the intrinsic value of carbon-free emissions from nuclear power plants by purchasing “Zero-Emission Credits” (ZEC). Those credits are added to the wholesale price each plant receives for its power, and the costs are passed on to ratepayers. http://www.utilitydive.com/news/citing-cross-state-pollution-maryland-pushes-epa-to-target-19-midwest-coal/430743/ New York regulators split the REV docket into two tracks. Track 1 focuses on the development of distributed resource markets and the utility as the DSP providers. Track 2 of the REV docket focuses on reforming utility ratemaking practices (evolving from traditional cost-of-service) and revenue streams to support the DSPP model.
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CALIFORNIA ISO’S PROPOSAL FOR A NEW TOU FRAMEWORK BY 2021November 2016 Net Load 13,003
MW on 2/21/2016Solve w/ ‘Super Off
Peak’
3-hour ramp10,892 MW on
2/1/2016 – Solve w/Super On Peak
Off Peak at Mid-Day
On Peak is 4-9pmNoon-9 during the summer
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A mammoth, wide-ranging energy measure under consideration by the Illinois legislature that would provide billions of dollars in support for energy efficiency, microgrids, and—most controversially—the Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear power plants made it out of a key committee on Nov. 29 and could see a final vote by the end of the week. An August decision by the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) approving New York’s Clean Energy Standard included a provision requiring the state’s investor-owned utilities and other energy suppliers to pay for the intrinsic value of carbon-free emissions from nuclear power plants by purchasing “Zero-Emission Credits” (ZEC). Those credits are added to the wholesale price each plant receives for its power, and the costs are passed on to ratepayers. http://www.utilitydive.com/news/citing-cross-state-pollution-maryland-pushes-epa-to-target-19-midwest-coal/430743/ New York regulators split the REV docket into two tracks. Track 1 focuses on the development of distributed resource markets and the utility as the DSP providers. Track 2 of the REV docket focuses on reforming utility ratemaking practices (evolving from traditional cost-of-service) and revenue streams to support the DSPP model.
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SCE’S 2024 MARGINAL COSTS MODEL ALIGNS WITH CAISO
Columns: HoursRows: Months ** 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 21 22 23 24 Average
1 0.049 0.048 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.053 0.064 0.048 0.046 0.045 0.044 0.041 0.043 0.044 0.046 0.069 0.1 50 0.098 0.067 0.060 0.056 0.052 0.050 0.057 2 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.042 0.043 0.044 0.047 0.045 0.042 0.041 0.041 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.041 0.046 0.1 29 0.1 1 4 0.065 0.055 0.051 0.046 0.044 0.051 3 0.047 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.047 0.048 0.044 0.043 0.041 0.041 0.038 0.037 0.040 0.041 0.043 0.044 0.1 99 0.078 0.065 0.061 0.060 0.053 0.048 0.054 4 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.043 0.043 0.042 0.042 0.041 0.039 0.041 0.043 0.044 0.046 0.1 93 0.069 0.064 0.069 0.060 0.053 0.048 0.054 5 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.043 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.043 0.044 0.045 0.046 0.048 0.1 69 0.075 0.061 0.068 0.065 0.056 0.049 0.055 6 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.042 0.043 0.042 0.038 0.039 0.040 0.043 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.046 0.1 33 0.382 0.1 1 1 0.071 0.060 0.051 0.045 0.065 7 0.048 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.042 0.044 0.046 0.047 0.049 0.050 0.052 0.053 0.057 0.058 0.059 0.1 91 0.096 0.073 0.070 0.065 0.061 0.053 0.060 8 0.049 0.048 0.048 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.046 0.046 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.049 0.050 0.052 0.055 0.057 0.095 0.265 0.489 0.1 1 1 0.082 0.065 0.062 0.053 0.084 9 0.045 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.045 0.046 0.049 0.055 0.1 85 2.275 0.993 0.279 0.090 0.059 0.053 0.047 0.1 96
1 0 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.048 0.049 0.049 0.053 0.048 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.048 0.049 0.049 0.1 23 0.1 67 0.067 0.073 0.065 0.060 0.054 0.050 0.060 1 1 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.042 0.043 0.044 0.046 0.044 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.043 0.1 28 0.1 51 0.062 0.059 0.054 0.050 0.046 0.044 0.053 1 2 0.048 0.048 0.047 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.053 0.054 0.048 0.048 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.046 0.047 0.048 0.057 0.241 0.077 0.069 0.063 0.061 0.056 0.050 0.060
Hourly Average * 0.047 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.045 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.045 0.046 0.048 0.079 0.355 0.21 7 0.091 0.067 0.059 0.054 0.048 0.071
Columns: HoursRows: Months ** 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 21 22 23 24 Average
1 0.051 0.050 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.050 0.051 0.069 0.046 0.042 0.043 0.038 0.037 0.034 0.036 0.044 0.051 0.1 68 0.088 0.066 0.060 0.056 0.053 0.051 0.056 2 0.046 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.046 0.046 0.045 0.040 0.034 0.039 0.038 0.033 0.037 0.038 0.039 0.051 0.073 0.1 47 0.063 0.055 0.051 0.050 0.047 0.050 3 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.048 0.048 0.048 0.048 0.043 0.034 0.028 0.029 0.028 0.01 4 0.020 0.034 0.042 0.057 0.1 77 0.073 0.062 0.062 0.064 0.060 0.051 0.051 4 0.038 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.034 0.024 0.031 0.028 0.025 0.028 0.01 7 0.01 6 0.01 6 0.043 0.033 0.1 37 0.039 0.042 0.051 0.050 0.046 0.039 0.038 5 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.027 0.030 0.030 0.033 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.030 0.020 0.036 0.049 0.1 32 0.059 0.049 0.052 0.053 0.051 0.045 0.044 6 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.047 0.046 0.034 0.023 0.035 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.041 0.043 0.044 0.058 0.1 38 0.079 0.060 0.061 0.065 0.059 0.049 0.051 7 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.042 0.042 0.041 0.035 0.031 0.037 0.038 0.040 0.041 0.042 0.042 0.043 0.044 0.045 0.1 68 0.077 0.062 0.060 0.057 0.052 0.045 0.050 8 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.039 0.036 0.038 0.039 0.040 0.041 0.041 0.042 0.043 0.092 0.071 0.1 04 0.1 1 5 0.061 0.066 0.064 0.058 0.046 0.054 9 0.049 0.048 0.048 0.048 0.048 0.048 0.046 0.039 0.040 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.045 0.046 0.047 0.049 0.051 0.51 1 0.1 51 0.082 0.068 0.062 0.059 0.050 0.073 1 0 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.045 0.037 0.037 0.038 0.039 0.039 0.040 0.041 0.042 0.044 0.1 1 7 0.1 29 0.058 0.066 0.057 0.051 0.047 0.045 0.052 1 1 0.056 0.055 0.055 0.055 0.055 0.055 0.056 0.053 0.045 0.048 0.048 0.045 0.043 0.047 0.049 0.053 0.1 45 0.1 94 0.081 0.077 0.067 0.063 0.059 0.056 0.065 1 2 0.051 0.051 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.051 0.050 0.046 0.040 0.044 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.044 0.047 0.053 0.244 0.067 0.067 0.061 0.060 0.055 0.051 0.059
Hourly Average * 0.047 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.046 0.043 0.040 0.038 0.038 0.038 0.038 0.035 0.037 0.038 0.048 0.065 0.1 81 0.086 0.063 0.060 0.058 0.054 0.048 0.054
Weekdays
Weekends and Holidays
Strengthens potential for Demand Management. Utilities will do individual rate cases but seem roughly aligned. Does not take into account the potential for HIGH penetration of storage
Mid-day is the new Off Peak!
Presenter
Presentation Notes
A mammoth, wide-ranging energy measure under consideration by the Illinois legislature that would provide billions of dollars in support for energy efficiency, microgrids, and—most controversially—the Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear power plants made it out of a key committee on Nov. 29 and could see a final vote by the end of the week. An August decision by the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) approving New York’s Clean Energy Standard included a provision requiring the state’s investor-owned utilities and other energy suppliers to pay for the intrinsic value of carbon-free emissions from nuclear power plants by purchasing “Zero-Emission Credits” (ZEC). Those credits are added to the wholesale price each plant receives for its power, and the costs are passed on to ratepayers. http://www.utilitydive.com/news/citing-cross-state-pollution-maryland-pushes-epa-to-target-19-midwest-coal/430743/ New York regulators split the REV docket into two tracks. Track 1 focuses on the development of distributed resource markets and the utility as the DSP providers. Track 2 of the REV docket focuses on reforming utility ratemaking practices (evolving from traditional cost-of-service) and revenue streams to support the DSPP model.
INSIDE ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY
MAJOR TAKEAWAYS
UNDERSTAND WHETHER OFFSITE WIND POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT TRENDS FIT INTO YOUR COMPANY’S ENERGY STRATEGY.
UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EXPECTATIONS FUELING NATURAL GAS PRICES. As supply and demand continue to rebalance, natural gas and electricity prices will face upward pressure.
REGIONAL POWER MARKETS MAY HAVE BETTER BUYING OPPORTUNITIES THAN REFLECTED IN NATIONAL BENCHMARKS. Some regional electric markets have decoupled from natural gas during the recent rally, so monitoring pricing at
a more regional level may uncover more buying opportunities.
VOLATILITY STILL EXISTS IN NEW ENGLAND, NEW YORK, AND PJM DURING COLD TEMPERATURES SPELLS. Wholesale natural gas and electricity prices are expected to slowly rise during 2017. Opportunities still exist to
contract electric and natural gas contracts in deregulated markets.
RELATED RESOURCES
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