IAA MWG Cape Town UK research & Conferences · MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19 Nov 2016 25 UK Mortality and Longevity Update Nov 2016 1 Thanks to the many people who have contributed.

IAA MWG Cape Town

UK research & Conferences(From UK Mortality and Longevity Update Nov 2016)

Brian Ridsdale

19 Nov 2016

[email protected]

MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19 Nov 2016 1

MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19 Nov 2016

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UK update

Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI)

Antibiotic resistance conference

International longevity etc. symposium

UK Update Nov 2016

http://www.actuaries.org/index.cfm?LANG=EN&DSP=MENU&ACT=HOME


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Reviewing CMI Mortality Projections

Model

Proposed graduations published:

Term mortality data

Accelerated critical illness data



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UK update




UK Update Nov 2016



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MRSC - Antibiotic resistance multidisciplinary conference



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Clinical implications of AMR Meghan Perry MBChB, MRCP, DTM&H, PhD

Teillant et al, Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2015



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Antibiotic discoveryNicola Oliver, Medical Intelligence (UK) Ltd



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Antibiotic resistance 2050 est.Ivo Holanec IFoA



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Antibiotic resistance ReadingLongevity bulletin Antimicrobial Resistance edition, May 2016

Contents, inter alia –

How resistance emerges

Clinical implications

Basic facts

Economic implications

Current developments

Research into new antibiotics

Case study


https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/our-journals-and-research-publications/longevity-bulletin


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UK update




UK Update Nov 2016



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International mortality and

longevity symposium

A few points:

Health and longevity – can we have

both?

CMI Update

New model

High age mortality

When is a cohort not a cohort?



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Health and longevity – can we have

both? Professor Carol Jagger

Four terms:

Life Expectancy (LE or TLE)

Disease Free Life Expectancy (DFLE)

Cognitive Impairment Free Life Expectancy

(CIFLE)

Years spent with Cognitive Impairment (CILE)


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International mortality and longevity symposium

Health and longevity – can we have both? Professor Carol Jagger

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International mortality and longevity symposium

Health and longevity – can we have both? Professor Carol Jagger


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longevity symposium

Health and longevity – can we have both? Professor

Carol Jagger – Summary

Health expectancy increases in the UK are not keeping pace with

gains in life expectancy, particularly at older ages.

There is evidence that chronic diseases, unhealthy behaviours

and the environment can influence health expectancy but many

also influence life expectancy

Influences on health expectancy must be examined alongside

their effect on life expectancy to ensure that we achieve both

longevity and health



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longevity symposium

CMI update on

longevity modelling – Tim Gordon

high age mortality – Steve Bale



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CMI – Continuous Mortality

Investigation

Wholly owned by Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Independent executive and management

Funded by subscription but free for academics and non-

commercial research

Mission

To produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and

models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products

and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in

doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

To be regarded across the world as setting the benchmark for the

quality, depth and breadth of analysis of industry-wide insurance

company and pension scheme experience studies


MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19 Nov

201618

Standardised Mortality Rates for England and Wales (vs 2011)

Apart from very recently – 2012 onwards – relying solely on predictive power

would likely select a model that always predicted higher future mortality

improvements than the past


201619


201620


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When is a cohort not a cohort?

Spurious parameters in stochastic

longevity models - Jon Palin

Many models assume a structure for mortality

in terms of age, period and cohort parameters

But the parameters are not always what they

seem ...

… e.g. cohort parameters may not reflect

cohort effects.

When the parameters are misleading, the

projections are unlikely to be correct.



201622

Source: When is a cohort not a cohort?

Spurious parameters in stochastic longevity models - Jon Palin


201623

Source: When is a cohort not a cohort?

Spurious parameters in stochastic longevity models - Jon Palin

MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19

Nov 2016

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UK update




UK Update Nov 2016



201625

UK Mortality and Longevity Update Nov 2016 1 Thanks to the many people who have contributed. If you have any

comments or further news, or would like to be put on the circulation

list, please email me – address at bottom.

It would be helpful to have your advice on whether these Updates

are useful to you and what changes you would like to see: please do

complete the very short questionnaire here.

Contents

1. Highlight: International Mortality and Longevity Symposium 2016

2. Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 3. Other UK papers, presentations and articles 4. International papers, presentations and articles 5. Forthcoming events

Appendix: IFoA reading list on Journal articles on mortality/longevity

1. Highlight: International Mortality and Longevity

Symposium 2016

A record-breaking 180 people attended this symposium, held in

Royal Holloway College in Sept 2016.

Papers and presentations are individually hyperlinked

Plenary 1: Can we live forever?

Plenary 2: Causal model for mortality, morbidity and longevity

Plenary 3: Longevity and Fiscal Policies

Plenary 4: Health and longevity - can we have both?

Plenary 5: Big Data & longevity, morbidity or mortality

Plenary 6: How do you know if you're ageing faster than others?

A1: Coherent Mortality Projections for the Netherlands Taking into Account Mortality Delay and Smoking A2: Extreme Scenarios for Pandemic Risk

A3: Forecasting Mortality by Cause of Death

A4: Use of Routinely Collected Primary Care Data to Model Longevity

and Longevity Improvement

B1: Inferences for Maximum Country Life Expectancy using Provincial

Data

B2: Explaining the Female Longevity Puzzle

B3: CMI Update on Longevity Modelling and High Age Mortality

B4: Stochastic Mortality Forecasting with Smoothing and

Overdispersion

B5: Introduction of China Life Insurance Mortality Table 2010-2013

C2: When is a Cohort Not a Cohort? Spurious Parameters in

Stochastic Longevity Models

C3: Semi-Parametric Extensions of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Model: A

One-Dimensional Kernel Smoothing Approach

etc …


Nov 2016

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Large actuarial research programmes

to be supported internationally

1. Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and

Morbidity Risk - The development of a new generation of mortality

and morbidity models, with a specific focus on the drivers for

mortality

2. Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data for understanding

Longevity and Morbidity - The development of new statistical and

actuarial methods in the use of Big Data, in the context of health

and wider applications

3. Minimising longevity and investment risk while optimising

future pension plans - Future pension products that meet

customer needs, balancing stability, performance and cost.


https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/arc-actuarial-research-centre/research-programmes/modelling-measurement-and-management-longevity-and-morbidity-risk

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/arc-actuarial-research-centre/research-programmes/use-big-health-and-actuarial-data-understanding-longevity-and-morbidity-risks

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/arc-actuarial-research-centre/research-programmes/minimising-longevity-and-investment-risk-while-optimising-future-pension-plans


Nov 2016

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Large actuarial research programmes

to be supported internationally

1. Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and

Morbidity Risk - Co-funded with SoA and CIA. Research being

“Americanized” and “Canadianized” to make it relevant.

2. Use of Big Health and Actuarial Data for understanding

Longevity and Morbidity - CAS considering sharing.

3. Minimising longevity and investment risk while optimising

future pension plans -

IFoA keen to partner with other actuarial associations

contact me or Michael Eames – or through own association


https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/arc-actuarial-research-centre/research-programmes/modelling-measurement-and-management-longevity-and-morbidity-risk

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/arc-actuarial-research-centre/research-programmes/use-big-health-and-actuarial-data-understanding-longevity-and-morbidity-risks

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-develop/research-and-knowledge/arc-actuarial-research-centre/research-programmes/minimising-longevity-and-investment-risk-while-optimising-future-pension-plans


Nov 2016

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IFoA keen to partner with other

actuarial associations

Further research where IFoA keen to partner with others:

Economic modelling

Behavioural risk in institutions

We wish to take a global view of the main issues in

actuarial science and related disciplines

What are the hot topics in your association?

contact me or Michael Eames – or through own

association



Nov 2016

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UK update Questions?


IAA MWG Cape Town

UK research & Conferences(From UK Mortality and Longevity Update Nov 2016)

Brian Ridsdale

19 Nov 2016

[email protected]

MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19 Nov 2016 1


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HMD at risk – position at Oct 2015

The Human Mortality Database (HMD) collects and provides open,

international access to detailed mortality and population data for 37

countries or areas.

It is the work of two teams of researchers in the USA and Germany,

with the help of financial backers and scientific collaborators from

around the world.

It is widely used by researchers to compare consistent multi-country

data.

Funding for the HMD is now at risk and the team are keen to find new

sources of funding. If you can help, contact Magali Barbieri at

[email protected]


mailto:[email protected]


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HMD at risk – position at May 2016

HMD needs US$ 300,000 to $350,000

HMD considering options – eg user group

Continuation of free-to-user support is considered essential

Society of Actuaries is funding at US$70,000 – renewable subject to

progress

UK IFoA considering support

Other actuarial societies?

Other types of organisation possible?



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HMD at risk – and now?

Society of Actuaries funding at US$70,000 – renewable subj to progress

IFoA providing £20,000 for maintenance – renewable subj to progress

HMD/IFoA setting up a User Group to:

monitor progress on the IFoA contribution

channel user input to HMD

possibly - advise on fundraising

HMD hopes to offer faster updating and maybe cover further countries

Other actuarial societies?

Action by MWG members to encourage support?


IAA MWG Cape Town UK research & Conferences · MWG Cape Town UK Highlights 19 Nov 2016 25 UK Mortality and Longevity Update Nov 2016 1 Thanks to the many people who have contributed.

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