I NDIA ’ S Q UEST FOR A L OWER C ARBON F OOTPRINT Ajay Shankar [email protected].

INDIA’S QUEST FOR A LOWER CARBON FOOTPRINTAjay Shankar

[email protected]

INDIA: THE PRESENT SITUATION

Population 1.2 billion (Census 2011) GDP $1.7 trillion (IMF April 2011) Per capita GDP $1,380 (IMF April 2011) GDP Growth Rate Around 8.5% over last ten

years

8 to 10% over next two decades

TPES Growth Rate Around 3.5% (IEA) Electricity Capacity 173,326MW (CEA India April

2011)

400 million without access to electricity in 2001 (Census 2001)

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY

SHARE OF TOTAL ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2008

INDIA’S RELATIVE POSITION

(Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

EMISSION INTENSITY

India’s Emission Intensity fell 35% between 1994- 2007

India’s Voluntary National Target is to further lower emission intensity by 20-25% between 2005-2020

(Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

(Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

FOSSIL FUELS IN ENERGY SUPPLY

(Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

EMISSION INTENSITY

(Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Market Mechanism Cross subsidy in Electricity Pricing. De facto carbon

Tax Over 50% Price signal + Competitive market structure Global Hub For Small Fuel Efficient Cars Energy Intensive Manufacturing; Steel, Cement, Paper

Plants: Among Global Best Rapid Penetration of CFLs Regulatory Authority Electricity Conservation Act. Bureau of Energy

Efficiency. Labeling of Appliances Standards. Moving Target Approach with Trading

System Envisaged

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIESChallenges Contra Effect of Rising Incomes

OpportunitiesImmediate. Technically Easy Waste in Subsidized Sector. Farmers Pump Sets For Irrigation SMEs Technical Losses in Electricity Supply Smart Grid

Technically Difficult Green Buildings: Cost Competitiveness. Smart Green Cities Energy Efficient Urban Design Transport: Intra and Inter City. Key Parameter Electric Vehicles

LOWERING CARBON EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY SUPPLY Need to Pursue All Options and Create

Winners Policy Environment of:

Fiscal Deficit and Very Limited Resource Price Sensitivity in a Low Income Democracy

Renewable Energy Focus Separate Ministry since Eighties State Electricity Commissions (SERCs) Mandated by Electricity Act 2003 to Increase

Share of Renewable Energy in Portfolio of Utilities.

Marginal Increase in Cost to Consumer.

WIND

Successful. Fifth Largest in World. Over 14,000 MW.

Doubling of Capacity since 2007. Near Grid Parity. Growth Sustainable. Private Sector. Liberal Tax Incentives. Competitive Manufacturing Industry. Indian Firm Suzlon Reported World’s 3rd

Largest Onshore Potential 60-70,000MW Offshore Yet To Begin Energy Potential from Wind Modest

SOLAR MISSION

Program for 20,000MW by 2020 launched. First Phase 1000MW . Private Sector. Competitive Market Structure. Prices 30% Lower In One Year. Still High. Hope for Grid Parity.

NUCLEAR

Domestic Industry Three Stage Program Grid Parity Civil Nuclear Agreement Prime Minister Singh Reiterates Commitment Target 20,000MW by 2020 Rapid Scaling Up Thereafter

OTHER OPTIONS

Biomass Small Village Level Plants with

Cow Dung Crop Residue

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Indian Coal Pilot Project Shale Gas

SUMMARY

Pursuit of Multiple Paths Competitive Market Structure + Scale Effect Innovation Frugal Engineering. Movement Down Cost Curve Grid Parity