Hurricane Hazard Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Depiction for Standardized Air Force Standardized Air Force Weather Forecast Charts Weather Forecast Charts Capt Kevin LaCroix Capt Kevin LaCroix 1LT Christopher Wireman 1LT Christopher Wireman 28 28 th th Operational Weather Operational Weather Squadron Squadron
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Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Standardized Air Force Weather Forecast Charts Capt Kevin LaCroix 1LT Christopher Wireman 28 th Operational Weather Squadron.
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Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Hurricane Hazard Depiction for Standardized Air Force Standardized Air Force
• Air Force Weather Technical Library (AFWTL) located in Asheville, NC houses nearly 250,000 volumes; serves the information needs of meteorologists, climatologists, space scientists, computer scientists and experts in all other disciplines of interest to military meteorology.
• Holdings include foreign language documents, that they translate if needed.
• Requested they search all holdings for Tropical storms, turbulence, icing and severe weather.
• 88 documents were found in this search including several not held by the AFWTL.
• All references were either peer-reviewed, or major meteorological publications by AMS, Royal Met. Soc. etc.
Air Force Weather ResearchAir Force Weather Research
Outer rainbands can sometimes include Outer rainbands can sometimes include thunderstorms with high CB’s called “Hot thunderstorms with high CB’s called “Hot Towers” these reach more than 10 miles Towers” these reach more than 10 miles high, and result in very heavy precipitationhigh, and result in very heavy precipitation
Hurricane TurbulenceHurricane Turbulence
LightLight
ModerateModerate
SevereSevere
ExtremeExtreme
SFCSFC
500500
CONTCONT
Percent Percent EncounterEncounter
99.4%99.4%
0.5%0.5%
0.0015%0.0015%
0.0000033%0.0000033%
Only Only encounter encounter severe or severe or extreme extreme turbulence turbulence in lowest in lowest 1km of 1km of eyewalleyewall
Moderate Moderate Turbulence Turbulence only in the only in the strongest strongest convectionconvection
Turbulence Turbulence not not prevalent prevalent because of because of lack of lack of shear, both shear, both horizontal horizontal and verticaland vertical
Distance from Storm CenterDistance from Storm Center
00 1010 2525 100100 30030010102020
Sea Sea LevelLevel
MMbb LLeevveell
200200
400400
500500
850850
975975
Cross Cross section section locationlocation
Area of Area of ShearShear
Vertical Cross Section of HurricaneVertical Cross Section of Hurricane
Eye/EyewallOuter Rainbands *
Outer Rainbands
0˚
- 4˚
Hurricane IcingHurricane Icing
Supercooled Supercooled Droplets only in Droplets only in
strongest updraftsstrongest updrafts
-10˚Area of possible
Icing 160160
200200
> FL 130> FL 130
UpdraftsUpdrafts
ClearClear
MixedMixed
- 40˚
-15˚
Icing mostly clear due to large drop size and Icing mostly clear due to large drop size and lack of supercooled droplets. Weak updrafts lack of supercooled droplets. Weak updrafts also limit icing. Severe Clear icing in eyewall, also limit icing. Severe Clear icing in eyewall, typically well above research aircraft typically well above research aircraft penetration level.penetration level.
* Different Vertical Scale* Different Vertical Scale
Average Average Freezing levelFreezing level
Hurricane Icing ForecastHurricane Icing Forecast
160160
200200
Severe ClearSevere Clear
Severe MixedSevere Mixed
200200
500500
Icing in Icing in hurricanes is all hurricanes is all inside inside thunderstorms. thunderstorms. How it could be How it could be depicted is depicted is shown here. shown here. Temperature Temperature guidance for guidance for more accurate more accurate height height representation is representation is given on given on previous page.previous page.
•OWS worldwide have standardized map backgrounds, colors, and symbology so that a forecaster will be familiar with any products on a OWS webpage no matter what theater they are in, or what OWS they are at
• Following slides show designated process for depicting Tropical Cyclones on OWS Charts
• Process uses 150-300km radius from storm center as area of major outer ring convection.
• Limitations to depicting features:
• Forecaster experience – want same “rules” for drawing storms to be worldwide
• Map Scale – eyewall process to small to accurately draw on our scale
• Technical limitations to graphics program at OWS, Leading Environmental Analysis and Display System (LEADS)