Human Activities, CO 2 Emissions and Concentrations, and Climate Change The Ocean in a High CO 2 World An International Science Symposium Jae Edmonds,

Human Activities, Human Activities, COCO22 Emissions and Emissions and

Concentrations, and Climate Concentrations, and Climate ChangeChange

Human Activities, Human Activities, COCO22 Emissions and Emissions and

Concentrations, and Climate Concentrations, and Climate ChangeChange

The Ocean in a High CO2 World

An International Science Symposium

Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher, and Steve Smith

10 May 2004Joint Global Change Research InstituteParis, France

2

Thanks toThanks toThanks toThanks to

Organizers of the meeting

US DOE Office of ScienceEPRI

Other sponsors of the GTSP

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Brian Fisher, Hugh Pitcher, Charlette Geffen

3

Key Question for TodayKey Question for TodayKey Question for TodayKey Question for Today

What are the sources of CO2 emissions?

How much carbon is there?

What are the fundamental drivers of CO2 emissions?

What range of CO2 emissions trajectories could be anticipated (reference and stabilization)?What temperature regimes might be anticipated?

4

Final ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal Thoughts

Reference case fossil fuel and land-use change carbon emissions are a major source of uncertainty in CO2 loading of the atmosphere and oceans. FF emissions range in 2100 from

~3 PgC/y (SRES B1T MESSAGE) to >35 PgC/y (SRES A1C AIM)

Cumulative emissions 1990 to 2100 range from <775 Pg to (SRES B1T MESSAGE) >2,500 Pg (SRES A1C AIM)

The high end of these ranges are truncated in stabilization scenarios.

Emissions uncertainty combined with uncertainty in climate sensitivity implies a wide range of possible future carbon-climate regimes.

5

Sources of Anthropogenic COSources of Anthropogenic CO22 EmissionsEmissions

Sources of Anthropogenic COSources of Anthropogenic CO22 EmissionsEmissions

Fossil fuel use (6.5 PgC/y in 1999) Natural gas 13.7 TgC/EJ Oil 20.2 TgC/EJ Coal 25.5 TgC/EJ

Industrial process emissions (e.g. cement) 0.2 Pgc/y

Land-use change emissions (1.7; 0.6-2.6 PgC/y) Deforestation Soil cultivation

6

Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsFossil Fuel Carbon Emissions19991999

Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsFossil Fuel Carbon Emissions19991999

1,251

2,723

2,229

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Tg

C/y

GAS FLARINGCEMENTCOAL and other solidsOIL and other liquidsNATURAL GAS

total 6,457

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

1,500

981

771

392

315294

1,021

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Tg

C/y

196 OTHER COUNTRIES

INDONESIA

BRAZIL

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

SOUTH AFRICA

AUSTRALIA

UKRAINE

MEXICO

REPUBLIC OF KOREA

CANADA

INDIA

JAPAN

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

CHINA (MAINLAND)

EUROPEAN UNION (25)

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

total 6,122

50%

67%

75%

83%

7

Land-use Carbon EmissionsLand-use Carbon Emissions19991999

Land-use Carbon EmissionsLand-use Carbon Emissions19991999

382

1,081

-110653

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Tg

C/y

Pacific Developed RegionTropical AsiaChinaFormer Soviet UnionTropical AfricaNorth Africa & East AsiaEuropeTropical AmericaCanadaUnited States

total 2,066

Source: IPCC WG1 Third Assessment Report.

600

1,700

2,500

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

TgC

/yLow IPCC WG1 High

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, based on Houghton.

Range of Land-use Emissions

8

Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyGlobal Primary EnergyGlobal Energy Production 1850 to 1994

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Exa

joule

s pe

r Yea

r

NuclearHydro GasOil (feedstock)OilCoalWood

Source: IIASA

9

Historical Fossil Fuel COHistorical Fossil Fuel CO22 Emissions 1751 to 1999Emissions 1751 to 1999

Historical Fossil Fuel COHistorical Fossil Fuel CO22 Emissions 1751 to 1999Emissions 1751 to 1999

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

17

51

17

65

17

79

17

93

18

07

18

21

18

35

18

49

18

63

18

77

18

91

19

05

19

19

19

33

19

47

19

61

19

75

19

89

Tg

C/y

Gas Flaring

Cement

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

10

Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000Land-use Emissions 1850 to 2000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,00018

50

1857

1864

1871

1878

1885

1892

1899

1906

1913

1920

1927

1934

1941

1948

1955

1962

1969

1976

1983

1990

1997

Tg

C/y

Pacific Developed RegionTropical AsiaChinaFormer Soviet UnionTropical AfricaNorth Africa & East AsiaEuropeTropical AmericaCanadaUnited States

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, based on Houghton.

11

ENERGY RESOURCESENERGY RESOURCES

Will the Problem Go Away on Its Will the Problem Go Away on Its Own?Own?

ENERGY RESOURCESENERGY RESOURCES

Will the Problem Go Away on Its Will the Problem Go Away on Its Own?Own?

Won’t the limited conventional oil and gas resource force a transition in the near term to a world based on energy efficiency and renewable and nuclear energy forms?

12

Unconventional Liquids and Gases

40,000 PgC

Atmosphere 750 PgC

FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES

Coal

5,000 to 8,000 PgC

Oil 130 PgC

Gas 120 PgC

Vegetation 610 PgC

Atmosphere 790 PgC

13

Scenarios of Future EmissionsScenarios of Future EmissionsScenarios of Future EmissionsScenarios of Future Emissions

Scenarios of future anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere use complex energy-economy-land-use models. Regional

Fertility & Survival

Rates

Regional Labor Force

Regional GDP

Regional Labor

Productivity

Energy Technologies

Reg

iona

l E

nerg

y D

eman

d

Regional Resource

Constraints

Regional Energy Supply

Technologies

Reg

iona

l E

nerg

y S

uppl

y

Regional Prices

World Prices and Quantities

GHG Emissions

Oil Production

Electric Power Generation

Liquids Refining

Hydrogen

N. Gas Production

Coal Production

Biomass Production

Gas Processing

Nuclear/Fusion

Hydro

Solar/SPS

Liquids Market

Biomass Market

Natural Gas Market

Hydrogen Market

Electricity Market

Wind

Coal Market

Synfuel Conversion

Synfuel Conversion

Residential Sector

Commercial Sector

Industrial Sector

Transport Sector

Residential Technologies

Commercial Technologies

Industrial Technologies

Transport Technologies

Liquids Market

Biomass Market

Natural Gas Market

Hydrogen Market

Electricity Market

Coal Market

Primary EnergyEnergy Transformation Energy End-Use

Transport Technologies

Passenger Transport

Freight Transport

Rail

Automobile

Bus

Air

Air

Truck

Rail

Water

Pipeline

Trucks

Motor Cycles

Water

Kerosene

Gasoline

Other Liquids

H2

Natural Gas

Solids

Electricity

Diesel

Energy Module Regional

demographics

Regional GDPDemand

•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Urban land

Demand for Commercial

Biomass

Demand for Biomass Energy

Supply•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Urban land

Water

Fertilizer

CO2

Climate

Markets•Land rent•Crop prices•Livestock prices•Forest product prices•Biomass prices

Production•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Biomass energy

Commercial Biomass

Land Use Change Emissions

Technology Land Use•Crops•Livestock and fish•Forests products•Urban•Unmanaged

Policies•Taxes•Subsidies•Parks•Regulation

Agriculture, Livestock, &

Forestry

Energy System

Coastal Zone System

Other Human Systems

Human Activities

Crops & Forest

Productivity

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Hydrology

Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals

Ecosystems

Atmospheric Chemistry

Ocean Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Climate System

OceanTemperature

Sea Level

Climate & Sea Level

14

Future Carbon Emissions Future Carbon Emissions ScenariosScenarios

Future Carbon Emissions Future Carbon Emissions ScenariosScenarios

Which of the literally thousands of parameters are most important to determining future emissions of greenhouse gases?

Uncertainty analysis conducted to explore precisely this question. Edmonds, Reilly, Gardner and Brenkert (1986) Scott, Sands, Edmonds, Liebetrau and Engel (2000) Others include Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), Hammitt

(1992), Manne and Richels (1993), Alcamo, et al. (1994), Dowlatabadi (1999), Gritsevskyi and Nakicenovic (1999)

15

Technology factors are themselves interrelated variables

Four key factors Labor productivity GDP Income elasticity of demand

for energy servicestechnologicalnature of the development process

Rate of energy technology change Demand and Supply

Population

Results From an Uncertainty Results From an Uncertainty AnalysisAnalysis

Results From an Uncertainty Results From an Uncertainty AnalysisAnalysis

Technology is the broad set of processes covering know-how, experience and equipment, used by humans to produce services and transform resources.(Not just devices)

16

DemographicsDemographicsDemographicsDemographics

Future global population is relatively certain in the near term, But uncertain in the long term. Forecasts of population growth have risen, peaked

and declined over the past 25 years. The present best guess population is about where it

was in 1978.

Future populations are aging rapidly.

17

5.71

17.33

10.71

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Bill

ions

of

Per

sons

1996 IIASA Low

1996 IIASA High

1996 IIASA Mid

Population Trajectories Are Population Trajectories Are FallingFalling

Population Trajectories Are Population Trajectories Are FallingFalling

Population estimates have declined recentlyMany scenarios show global populations declining at the end of the 21st century.

Lutz Lutz et alet al., 1997, 2001., 1997, 2001

5.71

17.33

10.71

4.29

8.41

14.35

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Bill

ions

of

Per

sons

1996 IIASA Low1996 IIASA High1996 IIASA Mid2001 IIASA Low2001 IIASA Mid2001 IIASA High

Five Global Future TCF trajectories

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

To

tal C

Om

ple

ted

Fe

rtili

ty

High

Med High

Med Low

Low

Very Low

Actual

1995-2000 data

TCF2.202.051.901.751.65

Pakistan

EgyptIndia

IndonesiaBrazilUSAChina

JapanSpain

18

Increased Life ExpectancyIncreased Life ExpectancyExacerbates Aging and Increases Exacerbates Aging and Increases

PopulationPopulation

Increased Life ExpectancyIncreased Life ExpectancyExacerbates Aging and Increases Exacerbates Aging and Increases

PopulationPopulation

Both use TCF=1.9

Increased life expectancy would offset most of the population decline associate with decreasing total

completed fertility

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

19

90

20

05

20

20

20

35

20

50

20

65

20

80

20

95

Year

To

tal P

op

ula

tion

Med Low 95

Med Low 85

19

Labor ProductivityLabor ProductivityLabor ProductivityLabor Productivity

GDP = Labor productivity * Labor(hours)

Labor productivity growth rates are the major determinant of the scale of economic activity. They are relatively stable in the developed world. They are highly varied in the developing world.

Uncertainty in developing country labor productivity growth is a major source of uncertainty in carbon emissions.

20

Growth in labor productivityGrowth in labor productivityGrowth in labor productivityGrowth in labor productivity

21

Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels

• Energy intensity• Nuclear

• Renewables

The “Gap”

Gap technologies

• Carbon capture & disposal

Adv. fossil

• H2 and Adv. Transportation

• BiotechnologiesSoils, Bioenergy, adv. Biological energy

Stabilizing COStabilizing CO22

Base Case and “Gap” TechnologiesBase Case and “Gap” Technologies

22

Range of Reference Case Fossil Fuel Range of Reference Case Fossil Fuel Carbon EmissionsCarbon Emissions

Range of all scenarios in the database

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Range of all scenarios in the database

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Glo

ba

l C

O2

Em

iss

ion

s (G

tC)

Fo

ss

il &

In

du

str

y

Source: IIASA

Median SRES 2100 emission = 14.4 PgC/yOpen literature 2100 emissions ~20 PgC/y

23

SRES Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2100 (Pg)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600P

gC

Range 765 to 2,531 PgC

Median 1,500 PgC

25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

450 ppm 550 ppm 650 ppm 750 ppm 1000 ppm

Range of Cumulative Carbon Emissions

for Alternative CO2 Concentrations, ISAM Model Output

Cumulative Emissions and StabilizationCumulative Emissions and StabilizationCumulative Emissions and StabilizationCumulative Emissions and Stabilization

26

SRES Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2100 (Pg)

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,600

Pg

C

450 ppm

550 ppmv

650 ppmv750

ppmv

1000 ppmv

Shaded areas represent range of cumulative

emissions using ISAM (IPCC TAR)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

450ppm

550ppm

650ppm

750ppm

1000ppm

Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Emissions and StabilizationStabilization

Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Emissions and StabilizationStabilization

27

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Tg

C p

er Y

ear

A reference case with continued

technology development, and no climate policy.

A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, but no climate policy.

Emissions path that stabilizes CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.

Technology Alone Won’t Technology Alone Won’t NECESSARILY Stabilize CONECESSARILY Stabilize CO22

Concentrations Concentrations Energy Related Carbon EmissionsEnergy Related Carbon Emissions

28

Land Use EmissionsLand Use EmissionsLand Use EmissionsLand Use Emissions

Land-use change emissions depend onPopulation IncomeTechnologyClimate (including water)Policy (including climate policy)

Land use emissions are uncertain, but

Generally lower than fossil fuel emissions.

29

IPCC SRES Reference Case Land-IPCC SRES Reference Case Land-Use Change Emissions ScenariosUse Change Emissions ScenariosIPCC SRES Reference Case Land-IPCC SRES Reference Case Land-Use Change Emissions ScenariosUse Change Emissions Scenarios

30

Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive to Agricultural Productivity Growth to Agricultural Productivity Growth

Rates and to Energy PolicyRates and to Energy Policy

Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive Land-Use Emissions are Sensitive to Agricultural Productivity Growth to Agricultural Productivity Growth

Rates and to Energy PolicyRates and to Energy Policy

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Mill

ions

of t

ons

of c

arb

on p

er ye

ar

MiniCAM B2 550 0.0% Ag Productivity CC&D

MiniCAM B2 550 0.5% Ag Productivity CC&D

MiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity CC&D

Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC/y

ear

CTemperature stabilization scenario

MiniCAM B2 Reference scenario

31

COCO22 Concentrations ConcentrationsCOCO22 Concentrations Concentrations

32

Climate change is more than COClimate change is more than CO22Climate change is more than COClimate change is more than CO22

Carbon DioxideMethane 15 Source Sectors Energy, Human Wastes, Agriculture, Land-Use

Nitrous Oxide 12 Source Sectors Energy, Human, Industrial, Agriculture, Land-Use

Halocarbons, etc. 15 Source Sectors (7 gases)

Reactive Gases NOx, VOC, CO

Sulfur DioxideCarbonaceous Aerosols Black Carbon & Organic Carbon 19 Source Sectors each (Energy & Land-Use Combustion)

15 Greenhouse Related Gases Tracked by MiniCAM

33

Range of Global Mean Surface Range of Global Mean Surface Temperatures: 2000 to 2100Temperatures: 2000 to 2100

Range of Global Mean Surface Range of Global Mean Surface Temperatures: 2000 to 2100Temperatures: 2000 to 2100

Source: IPCC WG1 Third Assessment Report.

34

Uncertainty AnalysisUncertainty AnalysisScott, et al. (2000)Scott, et al. (2000)

Uncertainty AnalysisUncertainty AnalysisScott, et al. (2000)Scott, et al. (2000)

Number of observations

Distribution of Temperature IncreaseBase Case

35

Final ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal ThoughtsFinal Thoughts

Reference case fossil fuel and land-use change carbon emissions are a major source of uncertainty in CO2 loading of the atmosphere and oceans. FF emissions range in 2100 from

~3 PgC/y (SRES B1T MESSAGE) to >35 PgC/y (SRES A1C AIM)

Cumulative emissions 1990 to 2100 range from <775 Pg to (SRES B1T MESSAGE) >2,500 Pg (SRES A1C AIM)

The high end of these ranges are truncated in stabilization scenarios.

Emissions uncertainty combined with uncertainty in climate sensitivity implies a wide range of possible future carbon-climate regimes.