Why on Earth Fusion? Fusion: Energy Source for the Future AAAS Annual Meeting John Clarke & Jae Edmonds 19 February 2005 Joint Global Change Research Institute.

Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?

Fusion: Energy Source for the FutureAAAS Annual Meeting

John Clarke & Jae Edmonds19 February 2005Joint Global Change Research InstituteWashington, DC

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Thanks toThanks toThanks toThanks to

The Organizer of the SessionDale Meade, PPPL.

TheUS DOE Office of Science,

EPRI&

The many other sponsors of the Global Technology Strategy Project

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Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?Why on Earth Fusion?

Other energy sources are plentiful.Yes, population is growing and there are issues of supply, cost and environment with each source.But, historically speaking, technology development has proved deft at addressing such issues.So why on earth fusion?Over the years many reasons have been suggested, but today I believe one is paramount.While there are many uncertainties about future energy needs, the dominant role of carbon based fuel for the next fifty years is not one of them and . . .

We really do need some non-carbon energy options.

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Three Propositions Related to Three Propositions Related to Climate & Fusion Energy Climate & Fusion Energy

DevelopmentDevelopment

Three Propositions Related to Three Propositions Related to Climate & Fusion Energy Climate & Fusion Energy

DevelopmentDevelopment

Human induced climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision making.Climate change is all about technology and managing the development and deployment of succeeding generations of energy technology over the century ahead.Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half of the 21st century.

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Implications for FusionImplications for FusionImplications for FusionImplications for Fusion

The good news: The climate driven need for new technology will be largest when fusion is most likely to become available.The bad news: It’s a competitive world. It takes more than a climate constraint to bring a

non-emitting technology into the market. If a technology cannot deliver on cost, performance,

other environmental concerns, health, and safety issues, its competitors will.

Even if technically successful, fusion will compete with a portfolio of other technology responses.

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Bottom LineBottom LineBottom LineBottom Line

Fusion benefits from a climate constraints, but the benefit is relative.

On the other hand, the value to successful fusion technology development is potentially very high.

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Stabilizing COStabilizing CO22 ConcentrationsConcentrationsStabilizing COStabilizing CO22 ConcentrationsConcentrations

Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change

Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 is a very long term problem

Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter.

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Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels

• Energy intensity• Nuclear

• Renewables

The “Gap”

Gap technologies e.g.•C Capture &

Sequestration•Fusion

•Biotech Energy

Stabilizing COStabilizing CO2 2 : : Base Case and “Gap” TechnologiesBase Case and “Gap” Technologies

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There Are No “Silver Bullets” There Are No “Silver Bullets” When It Comes to StabilizationWhen It Comes to StabilizationThere Are No “Silver Bullets” There Are No “Silver Bullets”

When It Comes to StabilizationWhen It Comes to Stabilization

Energy Intensity Improvements Industry Buildings Transportation

Wind and SolarBiotechnology Soils Biomass crops Advanced biotechnology

Nuclear Fission Fusion

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Geologic Terrestrial (soils, trees)

Advanced Transformation Systems Electricity Hydrogen Bio-derivative fuels

Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

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450 p

pmv

550 p

pmv

650 p

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750 p

pmv

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2050-2095

Timing is Everything:Timing is Everything:Emissions Mitigation Under WREEmissions Mitigation Under WRETiming is Everything:Timing is Everything:Emissions Mitigation Under WREEmissions Mitigation Under WRE

Emissions Reductions from Reference to Reach WRE Path

Emissions Reductions from Reference to Reach WRE Path

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So If Fusion Technology Was So If Fusion Technology Was Available After 2050:Available After 2050:So If Fusion Technology Was So If Fusion Technology Was Available After 2050:Available After 2050:

Fusion energy would benefits from carbon taxes . . . the Carbon “Subsidy”

Each $100/tonne C is worth

$0.011 to $0.018/kWh(depending on the fossil fuel alternative)

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

$/to

nn

e C

450 ppmv

550 ppmv

650 ppmv

750 ppmv

Value of a Tonne of Carbon

Mitigation

Timing of Emissions Mitigation Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WREUnder WRE

Timing of Emissions Mitigation Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WREUnder WRE

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Estimates of the Potential of Estimates of the Potential of Fusion Power in a Climate-Fusion Power in a Climate-

Constrained WorldConstrained World

Estimates of the Potential of Estimates of the Potential of Fusion Power in a Climate-Fusion Power in a Climate-

Constrained WorldConstrained World

1996 GTSP Study “The Economic Value of Fusion Energy” assumed:

Fission phased out in W. Eur. & USAElsewhere Fission's Costs Decline @ 0.5 %/yr.No Carbon Capture & SequestrationFusion technology available beginning in 2035, but not

commercially available until 2050.Costs of operation declining to between $0.03/kWh and

$0.10/kWh.

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GTSP Modeling ResultsGTSP Modeling ResultsGTSP Modeling ResultsGTSP Modeling Results

Growing share of fusion power generation in the second half of the 21st century as costs decline.

Obviously, a greater share of power generation the lower the cost.

But only modestly greater market penetration under a climate constraint Due to competition driven technology advances.

15 Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryBattelle Memorial Institute

450

pp

mv

550

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mv

650

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2,469

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1,258

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661

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127

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500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Billion 1996 $

Value of Having vs. Not Having Fusion - CBF

However, The Value of However, The Value of Commercially Available Fusion Commercially Available Fusion

Energy in 2050 Is Still LargeEnergy in 2050 Is Still Large

However, The Value of However, The Value of Commercially Available Fusion Commercially Available Fusion

Energy in 2050 Is Still LargeEnergy in 2050 Is Still Large

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The Economic Bottom LineThe Economic Bottom LineThe Economic Bottom LineThe Economic Bottom Line

Fusion benefits from a climate constrained world, but the benefit is relative.

Unless it can provide energy at a competitive cost—and the competition is not standing still—its role as an energy technology will be limited.

On the other hand, the value to successful technology development is potentially high.

Demonstrating the technical feasibility of fusion has a large option value.

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Fusion Research is Ready for a Fusion Research is Ready for a Burning Plasma ExperimentBurning Plasma Experiment

Fusion Research is Ready for a Fusion Research is Ready for a Burning Plasma ExperimentBurning Plasma Experiment

Computational, diagnostic advances have laid a solid scientific basis for understanding key physical phenomena at different time and spatial scales. Magnetohydrodynamics, microturbulence, plasma transport

However, like human biology or climate, fusion plasma behavior is the sum of non-linearly coupled interactions at all of these scales.

After nearly sixty years of research, ITER will explore the ultimate regime of fusion plasma phenomena. Internal fusion reactions will dominate the plasma. The fusion plasma will reveal its final, self-organized characteristics. The operational and technological hurdles will be clear.

ARIES-RS (Q = 25)

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And If ITER Succeeds . . .

ITER Project Office Magnetic Fusion Roadmap (December 2003)

Estimated DevelopmentCost for Fusion Energy Has Been

Essentially Unchanged Since 1980

Cumulative Funding

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

ITERITER

DemoDemo

Magnetic Fusion Engineering Act

of 1980

Actual

Fusion Energy DevelopmentPlan, 2003 (MFE)

$M

, FY

02

19

80

FEDITER

Demo Demo

1/6-1/30 Value of Avoided Carbon @

550ppm

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So why on earth fusion?So why on earth fusion?So why on earth fusion?So why on earth fusion?In a climate constrained world uncertainty abounds: Carbon sequestration is the determining factor for fossil fuel

electric generation. A paradigm shift to a hydrogen economy is also needed to

allow continued use of fossil fuels for transportation. The competitive economics of hydrogen from non-carbon

energy sources depends on both fossil and non-fossil technology development . . . and their social acceptability.

Energy availability, relative technological progress, environmental preferences and security issues will all play a role in determining the outcome.

Given large uncertainties, durable policy conflicts, and potential consequences of delay:

Fusion’s Option Value Is Very Fusion’s Option Value Is Very Large.Large.