Ⓒ Olof S. Market outlook for grains and oilseeds Stephan Hubertus Gay DG Agriculture and Rural Development
Ⓒ
Olo
f S
.
Market outlook for grains and oilseeds
Stephan Hubertus Gay
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
2
Introduction
• Cereal and oilseed balances regularily produced in DG AGRI
• Basis: Eurostat balances
• Current yield estimate from „MARS Bulletins for Europe“ (JRC-IES)
• Discussion between market experts within DG AGRI
• Presented version: June 2011
3
Usage of cereals in the EU
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 e 11/12 f
mill
ion
tonn
es
Seed use Food use Industrial use (incl. Biofuels) Feed use
4
EU cereal balance
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 e 11/12 f
Sto
cks
(Mio
t)
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
Pro
duct
ion
& u
tilis
atio
ns (
Mio
t)
Intervention stocks Market stocks Usable production Uses
5
Extra-EU trade in cereals
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 e
mill
ion
tonn
es
grai
n e
quiv
alen
t
Imports Exports
6
EU cereal prices
50
100
150
200
250
300
Eur
o /
tonn
e
Soft wheat (Rouen) Barley (Rouen) Maize (Bayonne)
7
Uses and balance items
• 2010/2011 high net-exports and sharp reduction in stocks
• Price levels comparable to 2007/2008
• 2011/2012 reduction in net-exports expected
• Almost unchanged harvest in 2011
• Stocks expected to remain under pressure
8
Cereal production in the EU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Soft wheat Durumwheat
Barley Grainmaize
Rye Oats Sorghum Triticale Othercereals
mill
ion
t
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
9
Areas of concern as of mid-May 2011
Source: MARS Bulletin Vol. 19 No. 6 (2011), JRC-IES
10
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
Soft wheat Durumwheat
Barley Grainmaize
Rye Oats Sorghum Triticale Othercereals
t/ha
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
Cereal yields in the EU
11
Grain area in the EU
0
5
10
15
20
25
Soft wheat Durumwheat
Barley Grainmaize
Rye Oats Sorghum Triticale Othercereals
mill
ion
ha
2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012
12
Production, yield and area
• Increase in grain maize production and decline in soft wheat
• Reduced average yields for soft wheat and barley
• Increased area of grain maize
• Generally lower yields and only slight increases in cereal area
13
Cereal, oilseed and protein crops (COP) area
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12proj.
Cer
eals
an
d t
ota
l CO
P (
mio
ha)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Oils
eed
s a
nd
pro
tein
cro
ps
(m
io h
a)
Total COP Total cereals Oilseeds Protein crops
14
Rapeseed price and price ratio
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Eur
o / t
onne
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
ratio
Rapeseed (Hamburg)/Soft Wheat (Rouen) Rapessed (Hamburg)
15
Oilseed availabilities and uses
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011e 2011/2012f
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Rapeseed Production Rapeseed Imports Rapeseed Crushings Rapeseed ExportsSoybeans Production Soybeans Imports Soybeans Crushings Soybeans ExportsSunflowerseed Production Sunflowerseed Imports Sunflowerseed Crushings Sunflowerseed Exports
Availabilities (first bar) Main Uses (second bar)
16
Oilseed balances
• Strong demand for oilmeals and vegetable oils
• Reduced expected crushing of rapeseedin 2011/2012
• Production decline of rapeseed due to yield decline
• Continued gain in area but this season due to sunflower and not rapeseed
17
Concluding remarks
• 2010/2012: tight season with high prices– Reduced imports– Reduction of stocks (intervention and private)
• 2011/2012: continued tight markets– Slower demand increase– Reduced net-exports– Small expansion in COP area– Low yield prospects– Almost unchanged production– Stocks remain under pressure
18
Thank you!