HRPlanning 1 .21.11

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Human Resource Planning -- Outline

I. What is it?

II. Why is it important?

III. How is it done?

IV. Is it really done?

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I. What is it?

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I. What is it?

Human resource planning involves

getting the right number of qualified

people into the right jobs at the righttime.

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B. Prepare people for future thru training

C. Expand or contract

D. Control manpower costs thru HR budge

E. Succession Planning

A. Avoid long lag times to fill positions:

reservoir of talent

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III. How do you do it?

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1. It is a process of comparing human

resource supply with human

resource demand.

A. General Comments:

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2. It works best when it is tied to:

a. the organization¶s strategic planning

process




resource demand.


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2. It works best when it is tied to:

a. the organization¶s strategic planning

process

b. all available forecasts (technological,

economic, market, etc.)




resource demand.


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3. When there are variances, action

plans must be formulated, e.g.,

a. for surpluses, will organization use

layoffs, retirement incentives, reduced

hours, or something else?



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3. When there are variances, action

plans must be formulated, e.g.,

a. for surpluses, will organization use

layoffs, retirement incentives, reduced

hours, or something else?

b. for shortages, will organization useovertime, temporary workers, or recruit

new permanent workers?



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1. Approaches to forecasting:

a. Qualitative:


B. Methods Used for Human ResourcePlanning:

i. Expert opinions

ii. Delphi technique

iii. ³Bottom-up´ approach

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1. Approaches to forecasting:

a. Qualitative:



i. Expert opinions

ii. Delphi technique

iii. ³Bottom-up´ approachb. Quantitative (mathematical modeling):

i. Regression analysis / Trend analysis

ii. Markov analysis

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2. Supply Analysis

a. Skills inventories



i. Card systems

ii. Human Resource Information

Systems (HRIS)

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2. Supply Analysis

a. Skills inventories



i. Card systems

ii. Human Resource Information

Systems (HRIS)b. Replacement charts / Succession plans

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IV. Does anybody really do this stuff?

HRP techniques actually used:

Implementation of Human Resource Planning

�

Replacement charts� Skills inventories

� Computer simulation

�

Time series analysis� Markov analysis

� Delphi technique

84%51%

10%

5%4%

3.5%

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The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting

method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer

questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a

facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts¶

forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they

provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to

revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members

of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the

"correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-

defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of

consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of

the final rounds determine the results.[1]

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R egression analysis includes any techniques for modeling and

analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship

between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

More specifically, regression analysis helps us understand how the

typical value of the dependent variable changes when any one of the

independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables

are held fixed. Most commonly, regression analysis estimates theconditional expectation of the dependent variable given the

independent variables ² that is, the average value of the dependent

variable when the independent variables are held fixed. Less

commonly, the focus is on a quantile, or other location parameter of

the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given theindependent variables. In all cases, the estimation target is a function

of the independent variables called the regression function. In

regression analysis, it is also of interest to characterize the variation of

the dependent variable around the regression function, which can bedescribed by a probability distribution.

HRPlanning 1 .21.11

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