SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Hong Kong Company Update 18 April 2012 Tingyi New plans in the horizon Time to fight back. Tingyi’s reverse roadshow in Hangzhou revealed that the new battlefield against UPC has now extended to milk tea from pickled mustard beef/braised pork noodles and sweet iced pear juices, following UPC’s marked success. Our channel checks pointed to shrinking market shares of UPC after Tingyi’s counter attack. Its pear juice has overtaken UPC’s despite being six month late to the game. Bottling loss to narrow. To our surprise, its new Pepsi bottling unit will operate as a separate entity. Its turnaround is expected to be achieved via better pricing and A&P sharing terms with Pepsi, raw materials procurement sharing and capitalization on its existing production plants which should lower its transportation cost burden. All these are expected to save up to US$100m. Tingyi targets breakeven in FY13. Many new plans in mind. Tingyi believe consumers are getting more mature and complicated and the sustainability of its growth would hinge on its product variety. It is expanding the scope of its bakery unit to instant food by setting up a 45%-owned JV with Calbee. New products will be launched by late 2012. Meanwhile, it is moving into the processed meat area with a Japanese partner. Its new product is expected to be launched in 2013. Also it is open to M&A opportunities. Long run outlook. Tingyi’s chairman, Mr Wei, is targeting net margins of 8-10%, 10-12%, and 6-8% for its instant noodles, instant food, and beverages divisions, respectively. Regarding industry sales growth prospect, Mr. Wei projects 15-20%/1.5X GDP growth/1.5-2.0X GDP growth CAGR until 2015. However, beverage demand is likely to remain weak in 2012, before returning to normal the following year. Keep our forecast intact. Our site visit’s key findings largely supported our previous belief, while the loss at its Pepsi unit appeared to be much less than expected. Without taking into consideration the new developments mentioned above, we keep our forecasts intact. Upgrade to HOLD with TP unchanged at HK$20.01. Tingyi – Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (US$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenue 7,867 9,250 10,701 12,429 EBITDA 994 1,115 1,350 1,587 Recurring Net Profit 380 473 571 724 Recurring Basic EPS (cents) 6.80 8.41 10.12 12.76 EPS growth (%) (6.8) 24.37 20.84 26.74 DPS (cents) 3.75 4.21 5.06 6.38 PER 40.54 32.76 27.24 21.60 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.17 14.23 11.50 9.44 Div Yield (%) 1.36 1.53 1.84 2.31 P/BV(x) 7.34 6.67 5.83 4.98 Net Gearing (%) 31.42 19.37 4.19 N/A ROE (%) 21.40 21.39 22.90 24.91 ROA (%) 7.84 7.71 8.34 9.31 Consensus Net Profit (HK$m) - 530 668 792 Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities Hold (from Sell) Share price: HK$21.50 Target price: HK$20.01 Jacqueline KO, CFA Jacqueline [email protected](852) 2268 0633 Stock Information Description: Tingyi manufactures and sells instant noodles, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea, juices and bakery products in China. Ticker: 322 HK Shares Issued (m): 5,590.3 Market Cap (US$m): 15,412.1 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 22.8 HSI: 20,562 Free Float (%): 66.31 Major Shareholders: % Wei Ing Chou 33.69 Key Indicators ROE – annualised (%) 21.39 Net cash (HK$m): N/A NTA/shr (HK$): 3.22 Interest cover (x): 10.02 Historical Chart Performance: 52-week High/Low HK$26.0/HK$17.84 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD Absolute (%) (10.8) (9.9) (0.2) 7.0 8.9 Relative (%) (7.2) (14.6) (9.2) 21.3 (20.4) 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 PRICE PRICE REL. TO HANG SENG INDEX Source: Bloomberg
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SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Hong KongCompany Update 18 April 2012
Tingyi New plans in the horizon Time to fight back. Tingyi’s reverse roadshow in Hangzhou revealed that the new battlefield against UPC has now extended to milk tea from pickled mustard beef/braised pork noodles and sweet iced pear juices, following UPC’s marked success. Our channel checks pointed to shrinking market shares of UPC after Tingyi’s counter attack. Its pear juice has overtaken UPC’s despite being six month late to the game.
Bottling loss to narrow. To our surprise, its new Pepsi bottling unit will operate as a separate entity. Its turnaround is expected to be achieved via better pricing and A&P sharing terms with Pepsi, raw materials procurement sharing and capitalization on its existing production plants which should lower its transportation cost burden. All these are expected to save up to US$100m. Tingyi targets breakeven in FY13.
Many new plans in mind. Tingyi believe consumers are getting more mature and complicated and the sustainability of its growth would hinge on its product variety. It is expanding the scope of its bakery unit to instant food by setting up a 45%-owned JV with Calbee. New products will be launched by late 2012. Meanwhile, it is moving into the processed meat area with a Japanese partner. Its new product is expected to be launched in 2013. Also it is open to M&A opportunities.
Long run outlook. Tingyi’s chairman, Mr Wei, is targeting net margins of 8-10%, 10-12%, and 6-8% for its instant noodles, instant food, and beverages divisions, respectively. Regarding industry sales growth prospect, Mr. Wei projects 15-20%/1.5X GDP growth/1.5-2.0X GDP growth CAGR until 2015. However, beverage demand is likely to remain weak in 2012, before returning to normal the following year.
Keep our forecast intact. Our site visit’s key findings largely supported our previous belief, while the loss at its Pepsi unit appeared to be much less than expected. Without taking into consideration the new developments mentioned above, we keep our forecasts intact. Upgrade to HOLD with TP unchanged at HK$20.01.
Reverse roadshow background. Tingyi hosted a plant and sales channel visit in Hangzhou on 15-16 April 2012. We visited both the CenturyMart and Xiaoshan wholesale market. Chairman Wei Ing-Chou also gave a detailed talk regarding the industry outlook and the company’s future strategy. We met with several of its division heads as well as its new bottling unit head who has around 10 years of working experience at Pepsi.
Figure 1: In-store promotion activities at CenturyMart hypermarket
Source: Kim Eng Securities
Figure 2: Snapshot at Xiaoshan wholesale market
Source: Kim Eng Securities
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
About Hangzhou market. Hangzhou is ranked among top five in per capita GDP in 2011 with an average per capita disposable income at Rmb34,065 against the national average of Rmb19,118. Hence, both the per capita consumption of instant noodles and beverages were above industry’s while higher-priced items accounted for 60-70% of the overall market. Hangzhou’s market is more sensitive to economic changes which explained its underperformance last year. Tingyi owns around 70,000-80,000 point-of-sales(POS) for each of its noodles and beverages divisions through both its key accounts(KA) and around 140 first-tier distributors. Sales splits between KA and traditional distributors are roughly 10-15% and 85-90% respectively.
Instant noodles industry overview. The industry sales rose 9% yoy to Rmb50b in 2011 while per capita consumption reached 31 packs compared to US/Japan’s over 60. The sales structure is shifting more towards mid to high-end with container/bowl noodles’ contribution on the rise. Consumer preference is getting more complicated leading to the rising popularity for regional flavors though the braised beef noodles remain as the mainstream nationwide. UPC has identified and opened the market for pickled and mustard flavor and it is expected to stay hot in the near future. UPC has also launched braised pork noodles in 3Q11.
Figure 3: Market shares-instant noodles (%) By value Tingyi UPC Hualong White elephant2011 55.4 13.5 9.0 6.22010 53.1 9.5 11.1 7.0 By volume 2011 36.7 12.8 12.1 9.42010 39.6 9.0 13.5 10.3Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
Figure 4: Industry growth (%, yoy) - Instant noodles (2011) By value By value By volumeInstant noodles 15.2 (1.9) -bowl 24.8 -packet 10.8 -snack (7.6) Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
Beverages industry overview. The industry sales growth slowed in 2011 with notable changes in demand for different sub-categories. Bottled water, milk tea/coffee and functional drinks stood out with 12%/40%/38% yoy growth respectively in sales despite overall market weakness. The fancy over “One more bottle” campaign adopted in previous two years has faded, partly attributed to the weak growth in Ready-to-drink (RTD) drinks segment. Red, green, jasmine and honey tea would continue to be the major flavors. On a separate note, traditional Chinese type of drinks such as sour plum juice, sweet iced pear juice and herbal tea are taking some shares from typical juice products.
Figure 5: Market shares-RTD tea (%) By value Tingyi UPC Wahaha Coca-Cola Jinmailang2011 55.4 19.6 11.7 3.3 2.52010 54.7 19.8 12.3 5.1 2.0 By volume 2011 56.7 20.0 11.1 3.1 2.52010 55.4 20.1 12.0 4.9 2.0Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
Figure 6: Market shares-Juice (%) By value Coca Cola Tingyi UPC Huiyuan Wahaha2011 28.6 15.2 11.5 7.6 4.72010 27.5 14.0 11.1 10.0 6.2 By volume 2011 28.8 17.5 14.3 8.2 5.02010 27.4 16.7 13.8 11.0 5.9Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
Figure 7: Market shares-milk tea (%) By value UPC Wahaha Kirin Suntory2011 60.2 31.2 6.9 1.42010 47.7 34.0 14.7 3.3 By volume 2011 60.0 31.4 7.1 1.32010 45.5 35.0 15.8 3.3Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
Figure 8: Market shares-coffee (%) By volume UPC wahaha Kirin Suntory2011 60.0 31.4 7.1 1.32010 45.5 35.0 15.8 3.3Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
Figure 9: Industry growth (%,yoy) - beverages (2011) Value Volume 2011 2010 2011 2010Beverages 10.9 10.8 4.7 8.6 - Carbonated drinks 6.6 2.6 (1.6) 2.0 - Bottled water 12.3 9.3 6.5 6.8 - Juice 11.2 12.4 7.0 12.2 - RTD tea (no milk) 0.2 16.7 0.0 17.1 - RTD tea 6.1 16.9 3.9 17.3 - Functional drinks 38.1 23.7 33.3 20.6Source: Nielsen, Kim Eng Securities
Review on strategies in 2011. Tingyi phased out its low-end Fumando series and adjusted up the retail price of its packet/bowl noodles’ ASP from a unit price of Rmb2/3.5 to Rmb2.5/3.8 during the year. On the beverages front, management admitted its inadequacy on evaluating the end market demand, which led to overstocking in its channel last year. However the issue was solved by promotional discounts in an inventory clear-off in 4Q11. Tingyi is striving to avoid similar problem in future by limiting the role of its distributors to logistics and prevent excessive inventory buildup at the wholesalers’ level. Meanwhile, management also shares our view that it had been slow in reacting to consumer taste changes on the new product development front and will strive to improve in the future.
Response under new environment. Tingyi followed suit by launching pickled and mustard beef noodles and another new braised beef noodles. Meanwhile, it has upgraded its flagship products braised beef noodles after CNY to maintain its market dominance. More in-store promotions such as free eating activities in hypermarkets/supermarkets were being adopted for boosting the new products’ recognition while the TV advertisement was more focused on the nationwide flavor. In response to the slowdown in beverage sales, Tingyi will slow down the pace of its capacity expansion. Management expects beverage demand to return to normal in 2013 onwards, industry sales is expected to grow at 11-12% in 2012. Also, it has refined its instant food unit by separating the sales functions from its existing operation for better flexibility.
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
New products in the pipeline. Tingyi is about to launch its two brand new milk tea products nationwide in May 2012 with richer protein content against UPC’s. Blind tests based on several thousand customers suggested higher preference for its products against UPC’s given its smoother texture and stronger milk fragrance, according to management. Meanwhile, Tingyi announced forming a JV with Calbee and is expected to launch potato chips-related products by end FY12. Milk tea is expected to carry a gross margin of 40-42% while that for potato chips’ is around 50-55%. We believe Tingyi’s action is likely to create big competitive pressure to UPC as distributors are more willing to carry Tingyi’s considering its more complete product portfolio. Our chats with several local wholesalers confirmed our view. However, the PRC potato chips industry is highly concentrated with the top three firms accounting for 60-70% of the market; hence, Tingyi’s road ahead may still be challenging. Yet, Calbee target its JV to reach a sales of JPY 50b and EBIT margin at 10% by FY3/2018.
Figure 10: Tingyi’s new milk tea products
Source: Kim Eng Securities
Plan with its bottling business. Tingyi will keep the bottling unit as a separate entity and has guaranteed no lay-offs to its over 20,000 ex-pepsi staff over the next two years. Therefore, we believe its wage burden will remain high. Nonetheless, management believes better cost savings on other aspects will mitigate the high wage pressure and it is eyeing for P&L breakeven in 2013. For example, by installing new production lines at Tingyi’s existing factories, it can shorten the delivery distance. While the sales teams will remain separate, Tingyi believe it can share refrigerators at retail end-points with Pepsi. To note, it has 400k refrigerators while Pepsi has 200k nationwide.
Figure 11: Tingyi’s internal projection for its beverages unit (%) No. of brands 2011 2015 2020Volume market share projections Bottled water 3 24 39 50Juice 4 14 17 23RTD Tea 2 50 70 78CSD 33 39 43 Volume growth % projections Bottled water 23 18Juice 16 15RTD Tea 20 16CSD 13 10Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
Moving into processed meat area. Tingyi unexpectedly announced that it would move into this area in its Shanghai plant in cooperation with a Japanese partner. New products should be available to the market in 2013. No further details have been disclosed at the current stage and we have not factored into any earnings contribution. We view the move as positive with Tingyi’s clean food safety track record would likely make it a winner in this area. We believe its focus should be on the higher-margin LTMP segment.
Long-term outlook. Tingyi’s chairman, Mr Wei, is targeting net margins of 8-10%, 10-12%, and 6-8% for its instant noodles, instant food, and beverages divisions, respectively. Regarding industry sales growth prospect, Mr. Wei projects 15-20%/1.5X GDP growth/1.5-2.0X GDP growth sales CAGR until 2015. By 2020, Tingyi expects its instant food unit to reach 9% of its total sales with a targeted net margin of 10-12% and its carbonated drinks to account for 13% of its total sales with a normalised margin of 8% in the optimum case. Moreover, Tingyi aims to increase the market share of Pepsi by 1ppt each year and lift Pepsi’s market share to 46% against Coke’s 54% by 2020, based on projected sales CAGR of 12.5% and 10% over 2012-2016 and 2017-2021, respectively. Mr Wei expects per capita consumption of beverage and instant noodles to increase from the current 80 bottles/30 packs to 500/60 in the long run.
Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities
UPC is at risk. Our findings confirmed our bearish view on UPC that its growth may not be sustainable if it only relied on several key S.K.U. Its sales and earnings are likely to be subjected to headwinds should consumer taste changes; although we admit that UPC is good at identifying niche and creative new products. Its market share increased by almost 4ppt to 14% last year, thanks to the positive reception of its new products. At the same time, as mentioned earlier, Tingyi is now following UPC’s launches and given Tingyi’s much favorable comparative cost advantages, we expect UPC’s market shares and margins to be at risk. For example, for its iced sweet pear juices, its retail price has now been lowered to slightly below Rmb2/bottle against Tingyi’s Rmb2.3, after Tingyi has taken over its no.1 position after just several months of launches.
Beverage50%
Instant noodles
45%
Bakery3%
Others2%
Beverage42%
Carbonated softdrinks
13%
Instant noodles
35%
Instant foods9%
Meat products1%
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
Figure 14: Snapshots of Tingyi’s new products-another new braised beef/ pickled and mustard beef noodles
Source: Kim Eng Securities
Figure 15: UPC and Tingyi’s sweet iced pear juice
Source: Kim Eng Securities
Our view. Our site visit’s key findings largely supported our previous belief, while the loss at its Pepsi unit appeared to be much less than expected. While we acknowledge Tingyi’s endeavour to sustain its long-term business growth with numerous new initiatives, we still foresee the risk of cannibalisation: new products that undermine the sales performance of existing products and the potential competition among sales teams. Execution risks associated with its new structure is also worth ongoing scrutiny. Overall, we have not taken into consideration the new development mentioned above. We maintain our forecasts intact given limited earnings impact. Upgrade to HOLD with TP unchanged. We expect the upcoming 1Q12 results to be disappointing considering the high base for its beverages unit.
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
Figure 16: Previous ownership structure of TAB (Tingyi-Asahi Beverages)
Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities
Figure 17: New ownership structure of TAB (Tingyi-Asahi Beverages)
Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET FYE Dec (US$m) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F
VIETNAM Michael KOKALARI, CFA Head of Research +84 838 38 66 47 [email protected] Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen +84 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] Food and Beverage Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van +84 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected] Banking Nguyen Quang Duy +84 844 55 58 88 x 8082 [email protected] Rubber Dang Thi Kim Thoa +84 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected] Consumer Nguyen Trung Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected] Steel Sugar Macro
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Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation
Definition of Ratings Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:
BUY Total return is expected to be above 15% in the next 12 months
HOLD Total return is expected to be between -15% to +15% in the next 12 months
SELL Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months
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