Hisd 29 Jan 10 Part II

Futurizing Your Teaching Practice

A Partnership between

Houston Independent School District

& Texas Association of Gifted & Talented & University of Houston

A TAGT 6-hour Update

What strategy might best support teachers who introduce futures into the classroom?

“Futurizing” your teaching practice:

means to shift the focus of the course into the “future tense.” (Alvin Toffler in Future Shock 1970)

Future: a verb tense that expresses actions or states in the future

The future tense is used to express wonder or possibility.

(Glenn, Jerome C. Futurizing Teaching vs Futures Course, 1972.)

Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future


“Futurizing” your teaching practice

means tweaking current class assignments to allow a

futures-perspective

means giving license to your students to wonder

“what” could have happened instead [alternative history]

“what” might happen if [exploratory imagining]

“what” would you like to see happen [anticipatory thinking]


“Futurizing” your teaching

will help your students develop anticipatory thought

and mental preparation for the future.

Objective:

“to attempt to get learners to develop a “way of thinking”

which will help them look beyond today and anticipate what

they may be faced with tomorrow. (Source: Nation’s Schools, March 1972)



Futures Principle #1

“We cannot build a future we cannot imagine.”

[Elgin, 1998, 78]



Well-rounded method for actively engaging students in the future

FUTURES INQUIRY

Futures Inquiry

a thematic interdisciplinary method for teaching futures

principles, techniques and issues

focused on studying the dynamics of change and the

implications of that change

integrating across three streams of higher order thinking

skills: Systems Thinking

Divergence Thinking

Futures Thinking



Futures ThinkingPrinciples/Concepts

Systems ThinkingPrinciples/Concepts

Divergence ThinkingPrinciples/Concepts

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3

2

FUTURES INQUIRY

Well-rounded method for actively engaging students in the future

1. Systems Thinking

Is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing

interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of

change rather than static “snapshots.”


Systems Thinking

“Thus everything in the universe affects everything else

because they are all part of the same unbroken whole.” David Bohm (Wholeness and the Implicate Order, 1980)

Imagery of Systems: ecology of life systems, networks

Systems thinking tends to reside in the natural and physical sciences.

Yet it is equally applicable to the context of social sciences and social problems.


Systems Thinking


Question:

If A causes B, is it possible that B causes A also?

If so, what would that mean?

(It’s a “system” relationship not a “cause” relationship.)

Neighborhood quality Educational investment

Linear thinking is the opposite of systems thinking.

Key Principles of Systems Thinking

“The notion of the world and our universe are made of

separate ‘things’ is an illusion and lead to endless

confusion.” David Bohm, Quantum Physicist

A. Relationship is key determiner of everything.

The component parts of a system are best understood in the

context of relationships with each other and with other systems,

rather than in isolation.



“When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to

everything else in the universe.” John Muir, Environmentalist

B. Connection is the fundamental ingredient of all creation.

We best understand a system by examining the linkages and

interactions between the elements that compose the entirety of

the system.



C. Small changes can have system-wide impacts

A seemingly insignificant act in one part of the whole creates nonlocal

results that emerge far away.

Unseen connections create effects at a distance—in places sometimes

quite surprising to us.


EXAMPLE: What connection exists between the 1992 US

Federal Housing Act & Icelandic economy of

2008?


1992 US Federal Housing Act mandates HUD to set goals for lower

income and underserved housing areas for Fannie Mae and Freddie

Mac.

________ ______________ ________

In a televised address to the nation, Prime Minister Geir Haarde conceded:

“There is a very real danger, fellow citizens, that the Icelandic economy

in the worst case could be sucked into the whirlpool and the result

could be national bankruptcy.” (Business Week, 10/8/08)

Deeper and wider scope of global interdependencies leads to growing complexity of problems & cascading of impacts.


Habits of Systems Thinkers

1. Seek to understand the whole picture, more than certain scenes.

2. Change point of view/ perspective in order to increase understanding.

3. Look for interdependencies.

4. Identify complex causality relationships.

5. Understand and consider the ways in which mental models affect the present and future reality.

6. Bring out the assumptions and subject them to testing.

7. Consider the short and long-term consequences of actions.

8. Find where and when the unintended consequences surface.


Systems Thinkingbroadens the scope

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Futures Inquiry

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2


FUTURES INQUIRY

2. Divergent Thinking

A thought process applied to the open generation of ideas

for creative or problem-solving activities


Divergent Thinking

Take 1minute & generate TITLES for this great work of art!


Key aspects of Divergent Thinking

fluency -------the ability to rapidly produce a large number of ideas or

solutions to a problem in a short amount of time

flexibility -----the capacity to consider a variety of approaches to a

problem simultaneously

originality ----the tendency to produce ideas different from those of

most other people

elaboration ---the ability to think through the details of an idea and

carry it out


Divergent Thinking

Question:

What might some believe is missing from that list?




Divergent ThinkingThe role of divergent thinking contrasts with critical & convergent thinking in

the creative problem solving process.


Divergent Thinking

Rather than gathering

information & converging it on

the central problem,

we instead branch off populating

the divergent space with

novel ideas,

new perspectives

from which to draw.

Instead of driving for a single

correct answer, we entertain a

host of possibilities.

Populate the

divergent space

Stimulus/ Trigger


Divergent ThinkingKEY

Being open to AMBIGUITY!

Checking the desire to

CONVERGE too early!

Entertaining without BIAS a host

of possibilities!


The process is like growing a GARDEN.

You can’t harvest from more than you planted!

Sources of divergent questions for Futurizing your Teaching Practice

1. Descriptions of the source(s) of potential change

2. Causality /relationship of events, issues, …

3. Effects / outcomes from actions, decisions, …

4. Identifying importance of a change(s)

5. Understanding the parts that comprise the whole

6. Types of possible change present

7. Taking stock of knowns and unknowns

8. Classification of changes, implications, …

9. Effect of assumptions about change(s), implications


Imagine what 2050 might look like.

Suppose that robots substituted for teachers in the classroom, …

Forecast (rather than predict) what the outcome could be if …..

If..., then what?

How might your world be different if your mother did not marry your

father?

Can you create an imagine of your perfect world?

What are some possible consequences of …


Triggers for Futurizing your Teaching Practice

Divergent Thinking

EXAMPLE:

Suppose a Hawaiian divorce court in 1964 had awarded custody of

Barak Obama to his Kenyan father, how might the world be different

today?

Better yet, imagine how your grandchildren’s world of 2025 might be

difference as a result of the Obama’s presidency.



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Futures Inquiry

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2 Divergence Thinkingpopulates the thought space


FUTURES INQUIRY

3. Futures Thinking

An informed reflective process for systematically and

productively considering the range of possible futures in the

next ten, twenty or more years in any domain of life.


The Futures: Expected-Alternative-Preferred

Today FutureTIME

UNCERTAINTY

Linear Future/ Extended Present

Low

High

Possible Futures

Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)

Trend

Steps of Engagement

1. Begin with the End in Mind.

2. Assemble information to identify the extended present /

expected future.

3. Engage in creative imagining using futures techniques & tools

to construct alternative futures.

4. Create visions to mobilize efforts and align action to a

preferable future.


Begin with the End in Mind

We study the future to facilitate the emergence of the

BEST possible tomorrow for ourselves individually, for our

communities collectively, and for unborn future generations

proactively.

If you don't make a conscious effort to visualize

who you are and what you want in life,

then you empower other people and

circumstances to shape you and your life by

default.


Developing the Assignment

An important objective of the assignment (question or area of interest)

should be illuminating the implications of change.

The reference period of the assignment (+10, +15, …, +50 years

forward) should be inclusive of the decision-making time frame.

Gather information about indicators of change from the global environment across disciplines and sources.


Information about Change - DEGEST

Demography covers specific population groups, gender, age, ethnicity, family composition, & public health issues.

Economics includes production, consumption, exchange, finance, business, work and careers, and management.

Government includes collective decision-making, world affairs, politics, laws, and public policy.

Environment includes nature, resources, ecosystems, species, habitats and waste.

Society covers language, beliefs, ethics, lifestyles, values, religion, leisure, culture, and education.

Technology includes manipulation of the physical world, materials, machinery, innovations, scientific discoveries, and their impact.

S

T

E

E

P

Projected World

Population Growth


Example: Social- Cultural ?

Israel: First humans, now trees will text you


Example: Technology ?A new device under development in Israel would

take some of hassle out of determining if fruit

trees or grape vines are getting enough water.

The monitor, tapped into a stem, would measure

the plant’s electric conductivity, a parameter of

water stress. If the stress gets to be too much,

the device can send a text message or e-mail

to the farmer. And if the plant continues to bake

in the sun without water, the device can also turn

on the water itself.


Example: Economics

India, China, Russia to lead the world as US power to

fade by 2025

If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world’s second

largest economy and will be a leading military power.

It also could be the largest importer of natural resources and

the biggest polluter.

?


Example: Environment

?The number of WORLDS needed to meet resource demands.


Examples: Geo-Politics

Wars of Scarcity:

More than 1 billion people HUNGRY worldwide: FAO 10/14/09

In 2008, 1.4 billion people lived in "closed basins"--regions where

existing WATER cannot meet the agricultural, municipal, and

environmental needs for all. This number is expected to grow to 1.8

billion by 2025.

Today, experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about

600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to

continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are

projected to fall into this category by 2025.

?


Applying Futures Tools

Timelines:

visual representations connecting past to present to future

facilitates logical conjecture on what might happen moving forward in time

Futures Wheel:

an opportunity to stretch implications from 1st order into 2nd and 3rd

Incasting:

an opportunity to use “kernels” for story building about the future (scenarios)

Attributes of Futures Thinking

Multi-disciplinary and Global perspective

Long-range: ten years to a thousand years forward

Complexity & Ambiguity translate into opportunity &

potentiality



1

Futures Inquiry

3

2 Divergence Thinkingpopulates the thought space

Futures Thinkingextends the time horizon


FUTURES INQUIRY

Futures Inquiry

a thematic interdisciplinary method for teaching futures

principles, techniques and issues

focused on studying the dynamics of change and the

implications of that change

integrating across three streams of higher order thinking

skills: Systems Thinking

Divergence Thinking

Futures Thinking


a thought du jour

“We are made wise not by the recollection of the

past but by the responsibility for the future.”

George Bernard Shaw

Questions?

Comments?

Concerns?

Houston Independent School District

& Texas Association of Gifted & Talented & University of Houston

Hisd 29 Jan 10 Part II

Education

systems thinking

principlesconcepts systems

key principles of systems

opposite of systems

imagery of systems

networks systems

future futures inquiry

ecology of life systems