Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 11, 2016
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Highlights:2016 Enrollment Estimates
Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 11, 2016
2Fall-2006
Fall-2007
Fall-2008
Fall-2009
Fall-2010
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
163,993
196,847
186,103
Fall Undergraduate Enrollment: System Total
Fall-2016
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment EstimatesThird Year of Decline in Last 10 Years
Peak Year
-10,744 (-5.5%)
Declinefrom Peak
3
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment EstimatesConsensus Among Multiple Projections
400004500050000550006000065000700007500080000
Num
ber
Hig
h Sc
hool
Gra
d-ua
tes
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
Fall
Hea
dcou
nt
Donahue: Public Higher Ed Enrollments
WICHE: High School Graduates
NCES: 2010-2023 Change in Public High School GraduatesDecline 5% or more
Decline up to 5%Grow up to 5%Grow 5% or more
4
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment EstimatesEnrollment Booms and Busts are Normal
Source: MA DHE, USDOE
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
166,674
148,538
196,540
186,103
Fall Undergraduate Enrollment 1988 - 2016
5
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
Fall 2016
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
42,390 41,461
State Universities
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
Fall 2016
80,00085,00090,00095,000
100,000105,000110,000
100,798
87,711
Community Colleges
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment EstimatesRecent Enrollment Change Varies by Segment
Peak Year
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
Fall 2016
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
52,986
56,931
University of Massachusetts
Peak Year
6
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
University of MassachusettsRecent increases in undergraduate enrollment associated with notable increase in international student enrollment.
University of Massachusetts Undergraduate Enrollment
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
Fall-2016
2015-2016
Change
In-State 45,668 45,924 46,418 46,614 0.7%Out-of-State 6,806 6,823 6,731 6,621 -0.7%International 2,162 2,630 3,150 3,680 12.4%
7
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
State UniversitiesGrowth in state university undergraduate enrollment has slowed in recent years with slight enrollment declines the last three falls.
06–07 07–08 08–09 09–10 10–11 11–12 12–13 13–14 14–15 15–16-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%
1.8%2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.8%
0.5% 1.3%
-0.6% -0.6% -1.0%
State University Year-to-Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
806–07 07–08 08–09 09–10 10–11 11–12 12–13 13–14 14–15 15–16
-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%12.0%
3.6%5.0%
10.3%
2.5%
0.0%0.4%
-1.0%-2.9%
-4.4% -5.4%
Community College Year to Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
Community CollegesAccelerated enrollment declines in recent years follow years of unprecedented enrollment growth. Rapid growth from ‘06 to ‘10 coincided with both a boom in high school graduates and the onslaught of the great recession.
9
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
Community CollegesHistorically, community college enrollment has been more volatile than enrollment at the four-year institutions.
Source: MA DHE, USDOE
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
100,000 110,000
72,774 66,779
100,798
87,711
42,280 33,922
41,461 51,620
43,750
56,931
Fall Undergraduate Enrollment 1988 - 2016
Community Colleges State Universities UMass
10
Highlights: 2016 Enrollment Estimates
Community CollegesCommunity College fall enrollment is correlated with annual enrollment.
Source: MA DHE, USDOE
Fall 06/
FY07
Fall 07/
FY08
Fall 08/
FY09
Fall 09/
FY10
Fall 10/
FY11
Fall 11/
FY12
Fall 12/
FY13
Fall 13/
FY14
Fall 14/
FY15
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
Community College Headcount
Fall Headcount Annual Headcount
Profile: New Undergraduate Students
12
33,907 Total 2015 New Students Enrolled in Massachusetts Public Higher Education
Profile: New Undergraduate Students
2015 New Students
State Uni-ver-sities22%UMass
28%
Commu-nity Col-lege
s50%
By Segment
African American
12%
Latino/a19%
White
69%
By Race/Ethnicity
13
Nearly 52% were female Average age was 19.9 years
24.8 years for part-time students More than 20% were part-time
students Approximately 43% of those enrolling
full-time received Pell Grants
Profile: New Undergraduate Students
2015 New Students (cont’d)
14
More than half of first-time students enroll in Community Colleges, but the share was higher during the recession and enrollment boom.
Profile: New Undergraduate Students
Enrollment by Segment
Fall-2009 Fall-2012 Fall-20150%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
59% 56% 51%
18% 19% 22%
23% 25% 28%
Community Colleges State UniversitiesUniversity of Massachusetts
15
Profile: New Undergraduate Students% Part-Time Student by Segment
University of Massachusetts
State University Community Col-lege
All Institutions0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1% 1%
33%
20%
2% 1%
38%
22%
2% 1%
39%
21%
Percent of First-Time Undergraduates Enrolled Part-Time
Fall-2009Fall-2012Fall-2015
16
Profile: New Undergraduate StudentsAverage Age by Enrollment Status & Segment
University of Mass-achusetts
State Universities Community College All Institutions10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
18.6 18.6
20.3 19.3
20.3
21.8
23.7 23.6
18.6 18.6
21.7
20.2
Average Age of First-Time Students, Fall 2015
Full TimePart TimeTotal
17
Profile: New Undergraduate Students
% Female By Segment
University of Massachusetts State Universities Community College All Institutions0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
48%
58%
52% 52%47%
58%52% 52%
46%
57%52% 51%
Percent of First-Time Undergraduates Who Were Women
Fall 2009Fall 2012Fall 2015
18
Profile: New Undergraduate Students% Pell Grant Recipient by Segment
University of Massachusetts
State Universities Community College All Institutions0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
27% 28%
47%
37%
31% 32%
55%
42%
30%34%
57%
43%
Percent of First Time, Full Time Student Receiving Pell Grants
Fall 2010Fall 2012Fall 2014
19
Profile: New Undergraduate Students
Race/Ethnicity by Segment4.6%
8.5%
77.8%
7.7%UMass
6.0% 13.2%
69.9%
8.4%
UMass
2.6% 5.1%
86.9%
5.1%
State U's
2.9%10.6%
75.2%
7.3%
State U's
4.0%12.5%
70.4%
12.6%
Comm. Col's
4.8%23.4%
55.2%
13.3%
Comm. Col's
Fall 2006
Fall 2015
9.0%5.0%
78.0%
7.0%
HS Grads
11.5%10.3%
66.3%
8.3%
HS Grads
African American Asian / Pacific Islander Latino/a White
20
Latino/a students are less likely than White students to finish high school and enter college
Profile: New Undergraduate StudentsLatino/White Gaps in Attainment
Sources: MA DESE, MA DHE, National Student Clearinghouse.
Graduating High School in Four Years Enrolling in Postsecondary Education After HS Graduation
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
72%53%
92%73%
Gaps in Educational Attainment for MA Public High School Students
Latino White
21
Latino/a recent HS grads are more likely than White recent HS grads to enroll in MA Public Higher Education
Profile: New Undergraduate StudentsLatino/White College-Going Patterns
Latino White0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Enrolling MA Pub-lic; 72% Enrolling
MA Pub-lic; 45%
Enrolling Other; 28% Enrolling
Other; 55%
Where Recent High School Graduates Enroll
Discussion
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