Herrero - General Intro - Modeling Workshop - Amsterdam_2012-04-23

Some kinds of questions CCAFS

would like to answer

Mario Herrero

Farm-household Modeling with a focus on Food security, Climate change

adaptation, Risk management and Mitigation: a way forward

Amsterdam 23-25 April 2012

– CCAFS currently funding a large household data collection

exercise in the CCAFS regions

– Focus: studying adaptation, risk management and

mitigation

– Additional undergoing work on developing regional socio-

economic scenarios

–

– Need to supplement this body of work with household

modeling studies for identifying key options, targeting

strategies to specific systems etc

Background

..and for linking to current knowledge on

climate change impacts….

0º

20º

-20º

0º 20º 40º

An example of climate-induced livelihood transitions

Areas where cropping of

an indicator cereal may

become unviable

between now and 2050

and where farmers may

have to rely more on

livestock as a livelihood

strategy

Jones & Thornton (2008)

National

Production

Mixed

rainfed

temperate

Mixed

rainfed

humid

Mixed

rainfed

arid

2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050

Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - -

Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4

Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7

Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1

Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3

A game of winners and losers… Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, by

country and system

Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario

Thornton et al. (2010)

Winners

Losers

0

0.5

1income

food security

GHGwater use

external inputs

mixed

pastoral

There are always trade-offs

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Rainy Dry Dry

Groundnuts

Yams

Sorghum

Grazing Critical Crop

residue

Cut &

Carry

Prot. & Ene.

deficit Food security

Energy

deficit Family’s

nutrition

Feeding calendar

Cropping calendar

Weather calendar

Monthly calendar of different activities of the system

Cash demands Very

high Low High High Low Lo

w

High High

Wa, Upper West, Ghana

Gonzalez-Estrada et al. 2006

...from global assessment to assessing

household level impacts...

A necessary link to design adaptation, risk

management and mitigation options

Adaptation options will depend

largely on the how we shape the

world

• Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions

• essential to link it to scenarios of change

• Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)

• Globalisation and trade patterns

• Consumption patterns

• Carbon constraints

• Roles and incentives for technology adoption

• Growth in other sectors

• Power relationships

What are the options?

• Sustainable intensification / extensification

• Income / livelihood diversification

• Better risk management

• More transformative change (e.g. exit from agriculture)

All require a mixture of technology & supporting policies and investments

No single path best: mixtures required in different parts of the world

Addressing adaptation at multiple scales

Herrero et al, Science (2010)

• Longitudinal data

• Participatory methods

• Key informants

• Systems’ classification

• Selection of farms

• IMPACT & Household

model

• Sensitivity analyses

• Participatory appraisals

• Recommendation domains

• Toolboxes of interventions

• Farmers / NARS

• Stakeholder workshops

• Participatory appraisals

Participatory modelling

Ecoregion

Farms

C B A

Case studies

Range of interventions to

test for each system

(filtering)

Scenario formulation

(Farm and policy level)

Selection of a fewer

range of options

Site targeting

(Herrero, 1999)

Dissemination &

implementation

Policy-making

Testing

options in the

field

Integrated Methodology

Systems characterisation

soil

ANIMAL

crops

TPS

herd

livestock

Biological simulation system

Databases

limits constraints resources mgmt practices

Multiple criteria LP models

DYNAFEED

Sustainable resource management strategies

Socio-economic

I/O

Adapted from Herrero et al. 1996, 1997

Some questions

• Can we identify robust adaptation options that cut across systems and socio-economic scenarios?

• Can we identify key trade-offs for each system?

• Are there adaptation – mitigation synergies?

• What is the role of farming diversity in adaptation?

• Can we upscale the strategies to quantify investment needs in adaptation?

• Can the upscaling exercise also link to regional modeling work?

Some questions (2)

• Can we identify risk management strategies for crop/livestock and livestock systems

• What are the impacts of consecutive dry seasons of farmers ability to cope with climate change?

• Can we model household level vulnerability or some proxy indicator?

• What are the key impacts of climate variability on trade-offs between the different indicators?

• Can we mitigate climate change under climate variability? How? Which GHG easier? For which system?

• What are the costs of managing risk?

Some questions (3)

• What is the potential contribution of smallholder systems to climate change mitigation?

• What are key mitigation strategies for different systems? Again, can we identify robust ones that cut across scenarios and systems?

• Economics of household level mitigation strategies

• Is sustainable intensifccation the ley to GHG mitigation for smallholders?

For discussion

• Human dimensions in the models: what can we really capture

• How do we deal with systems transitions into the future (still very static?)

• Proxies for vulnerability at the household level?

• Can we really deal with heterogeneous systems?

• What do we need to do to really succeed at multi-scale assessment (from global to household and back)

Thank you

Plot Crop

Homestead Enset, coffee, kale, sweet potato, maize

Plot1 Maize

Plot 2 Sweet potato, wheat

Plot 3 Maize

Plot 4 Sweet potato

Plot 5 Barley

Plot 6 Maize

Plot 7 Unimproved pasture

What’s the likely impact of alternative

interventions?

Site: Sodo, Ethiopia

Profit: Birr 2,381 Livestock: 1 cow, 1 ox


Critical Adequate

Current

management

Food security

Cow feeding

Labour/capital

Cash

Soil fertility

Food security

Cow feeding

Labour/capital

Cash

Soil fertility


Critical Adequate

Intervention 1

Food crop Application of fertilizer to

maize plots.

Food security

Cow feeding

Labour/capital

Cash

Soil fertility


Critical Adequate

Intervention 2

Feed crop Replace native grassland

with improved pasture.

Food security

Cow feeding

Labour/capital

Cash

Soil fertility


Critical Adequate

Intervention 3

Food/feed crop Introduction of cowpea in

the system.

Food security

Cow feeding

Labour/capital

Cash

Soil fertility


Critical Adequate

Intervention 4

Food crop Subsidy for barley

production

Exploring adaptation – mitigation

synergies

Herrero et al forthcoming

Milk production and diets for cattle in the 6 districts

of Kenya

District Milk per

cow (kg/yr)

Rangeland

grazing

Maize

stover

Cut and

carry

fodder

Roadside

weeds

Grain

supplements

Garissa

Gem

Mbeere S

Njoro

Mukurweni

Othaya

Siaya

275

548

860

1256

2089

2035

706

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Manure and methane production for the baseline

diets in the six districts

District Energy

density of

the diet

(MJ ME/kg

DM)

Manure per

animal (kg/yr)

Methane

production

(CO2

eq/lactation)

Methane

produced per lt

of milk

(CO2 eq/lt)

Garissa

Gem

Mbeere S

Njoro

Mukurweni

Othaya

Siaya

8.4

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.5

10.5

9.4

693

730

693

693

657

657

730

796

780

824

863

936

936

838

2.37

1.42

1.12

0.72

0.47

0.47

1.14

Most common new feeds appearing in the last 10

years and the scenarios simulated

District Main new feed Scenarios of use

Garissa

Gem

Mbeere S

Njoro

Mukurweni

Othaya

Siaya

Prosopis spp.

Desmodium

Napier grass

Hay

Desmodium

Hay

Napier grass

1.5 kg offered in the diet

3 kg offered in the diet

1 kg offered in the diet instead of stover












Impact of alternative feeding strategies on milk, manure and methane

production (% change)

District Scenario Milk production Manure

production

Methane

production

Methane per

kg milk

Garissa

Gem

Mbeere

Njoro

Mukurweni

Othaya

Siaya

6 districts

Prosopis

1.5 kg

3 kg

Desmodium

1 kg

2 kg

Napier grass

2 kg

3 kg

Hay

1 kg

2 kg

Desmodium

1 kg

2 kg

Hay

2 kg

4 kg

Napier grass

2 kg

3 kg

Average

64

136

21

36

12

17

18

49

9

8

9

8

42

79

36

0

0

5

10

11

16

-5

-5

11

11

11

11

0

10

6

-2

-5

-3

0

3

2

6

18

2

0

2

0

12

16

4

-40

-60

-20

-26

-8

-12

-10

-21

-7

-7

-7

-7

-21

-35

-20

Research opportunities

exploring livelihood and systems transitions

Scenarios (global, regional, household)

trade-offs

adaptation-mitigation synergies ( different systems: rangelands,

mixed)….carbon markets

====================================================

Farms of the future / analogue

Impact work (Chase)

DSS on adaptation costs and priority options

Comission of a paper on breeding strategies of livestock and

climate change (Karen to liase with James, concept note)

Adaptation: tweaking, structural, transformative