HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 Presented by: Dung Duong Thursday, April 2, 2015
HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 Presented by: Dung Duong
Thursday, April 2, 2015
2 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
IF IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE!
3 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
7.8%
8.4% 8.2% 8.5%
6.3%
5.3%
6.8%
5.9%
5.0% 5.4%
6.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
Vietnam GDP Growth Rate
Quarterly
“ ANZ has revised its GDP
growth forecast for
Vietnam in 2015 and 2016
upwards, to 6.5% for both
years from the previous
6.2% and 6.4%,
respectively.
”
5.0% 5.3% 6.1%
7.0% 6.0%
Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15
4 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vietnam among Top Fastest Growing Economies
POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM ECONOMY
Breakdown of components of average annual real GDP growth (2014 – 2050)
Source: PwC Analysis, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue, February 2015.
5 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Vietnam Retail Sales
Vietnam Car Sales
-30%
20%
70%
120%
170%
-
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015
Gro
wth
rate
(%
)
No. o
f ca
r
No. of cars selling % change YoY
Registration fee reduced from 10% -
20% to 10% - 15% in April.
Import duty on cars from ASEAN countries
will decrease from 50% to 0% by 2018.
Target credit growth
2M: 0.68%
2015: 13-15%
2014: 14%
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, Q1 2015.
Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, March 2015.
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
42%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4P
Q1 2
01
5
Gro
wth
Ra
te (
%)
Tu
rno
ve
r (T
rilli
on
do
ng)
Retails and Services Turnover Retails and Services Turnover Growth
Annual Car Sales:
Vietnam: 150,000 units
Thailand: 850,000 units
Indonesia: 1,250,000 units
6 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
FALLING OIL PRICE TRIGGERS TRADE DEFICIT? Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart - Last Ten Years
Compares the movement in the dollar index (major trading partners) with gold and oil prices over the last ten
years. The three series are compared using standard deviation.
Source: Macrotrends, April 1, 2015.
+20% y-o-y vs. EUR
and Yen
US$1,186/oz
-8% y-o-y
US$47.4/barrel
-47% y-o-y
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Jun
-12
Se
p-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Jun
-13
Se
p-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ma
r-14
Jun
-14
Se
p-1
4
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-15
18,932
20,703 21,036 21,246
21,458
20,803
Vietnam Interbank Exchange Rate
Vietnam Trade Balance
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3M2015
US
$ b
illio
n
Export
Import
PMI VN-Index
7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC
Exchange Rate
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2015.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lo
ca
l cu
rre
ncy p
er
US
D
JPY
INR
AUD
MYR
THB
SGD-TWD
PHP
VND
KRW-HKD
NZD
CNY
Vietnam Government Bond Yield Movement
8 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
BANK CUT RATES ON THE BACK OF LOW INFLATION
• Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises.
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam.
Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation
HSBC Bank has predicted that the central bank would mull another cut of
the open market operations (OMO) rate to beef up domestic demand and
growth thanks to low inflation this year.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inte
rest ra
te (
%)
Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate
Mortgage rate for the first 12 months:
Jan. 15 Mar. 15 Max. loan terms/
Loan-to-value
• Techcombank 9.49% 7.99% 20 years/ 70%
• Vietcombank 7.99% 7.5% 15 years/ 70%
• ACB 8.90% 7.5% 20 years/ 75%
9 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
NEW REAL ESTATE FIRMS ON SHARP RISE
Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.
* All the above articles were retrieved in March 2015.
Restructuring banking system:
• Some large banks will have to merge
with smaller banks, while the central
bank will directly handle other
lenders.
1. Newly registered Real Estate companies +49% y-o-y;
2. Newly registered Art, Entertainment and Recreation
companies +49% y-o-y.
Novaland to go public end of 2015
19,000 newly registered 4% y-o-y
2,055 firms were resolved 9% y-o-y
16,175 suspended operation 14% y-o-y
4,376 resumed operation 20% y-o-y
10 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN – VIETNAM’S BIGGEST FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS
Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment, 3M 2015
Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Pelosi, Bipartisan Delegation Conclude
Two-Day Visit to Vietnam 76%
11%
7% 6% Manufacturing
Real estate
Wholesale, retail sale andrepair industries
Others
Vietnam overseas remittance hit US$12
billion in 2014, accounting for 8% of
Vietnam’s GDP, up 13% y-o-y.
11 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
INFRASTRUCTURE - HCMC
Construction started on
Metro Line No. 2 at
Tham Luong depot
District12.
Estimated completion:
Q3/2016
Ground breaking of
Thu Thiem 2 Bridge
Estimated completion:
30 April 2018
Full opening of Long
Thanh - Dau Giay
Highway.
Length: 55 km
Linked HCMC to South
East part
Estimated investment
cost for Long Thanh
International Airport
project to reduce by 15%
04 February 2015 25 February 2015 16 January 2015 08 February 2015
12 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Q1 2015 Snapshot
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END AFFORDABLE TOTAL
Total launched supply (units) 1,278 40,006 33,656 49,563 124,503
New launch (units)* 0 3,196 344 1,610 5,150
Total completed supply (units) 817 24,428 21,835 27,000 74,080
New completion (units)* 0 905 560 850 2,315
Average Primary Prices (US$ psm) $4,374 $1,717 $978 $664
Q-o-q change (%) 3.9% 1.0% -3.7% -1.0%
Y-o-y change (%) 3.6% 3.7% 2.3% -3.6%
(*) Excluding soft launches and re-launches
(**) Excluding delayed projects / units
All prices are quoted exclusive of VAT and service charges. Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
13 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Recovery Continues and High-end Apartment Sales Come Back
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
16,200 units
Q1 2015 Q1 2014
873 units
5,150 units
New launches tripled y-o-y
Sales doubled y-o-y
1,155 units
Q1 2014
2,593 units
Q1 2015
16,200 units
Q1 2015 Q1 2014
2,600 units
4,880 units
New launches up 82% y-o-y
Sales doubled y-o-y
1,500 units
Q1 2014
3,080 units
Q1 2015
HCMC Hanoi
14 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
31% 37% 40%
31% 31% 27%
37% 31% 32%
1% 2% 1%
Before 2010 Mid-2010 After 2015
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE 2015 Q1 New Launches – The Expansion of High-end & Affordable
6 projects
1360 units
2 projects
230 units
2 projects
473 units
1 project
282 units
1 project
700 units
1 project
495 units
2 projects
508 units
2 projects
678 units
2 projects
424 units
HCMC
~5,150 units
17 projects 1 project
198 units
2 project
223 units
1 project
50 units
2 projects 270 units
2 projects
275 units
Hoai Duc
5 projects
3,297 units 2 projects
337 units
3 projects
229 units
Cau Giay
Dong Da
Ha Dong
Hoang Mai
Tu Liem
Hanoi
4,880 units
18 projects
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
20% 17% 26%
63% 63% 57%
15% 18% 15% 3% 2% 2%
2009 2011 2015
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
2 projects
223units
15 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
02,0004,0006,0008,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Sales Momentum Remains Strong Despite A Long Tet Break
Sold Units
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
HCMC
138% y-o-y
Ha Noi
103% y-o-y
16 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$2,400
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Developers Are Increasing Prices, Do They?
• Primary prices for high-end and affordable projects witnessed a slight increase
• Seen in projects in good locations, reputable developers, showing good
construction progress; not across the board!
High-end primary prices, HCMC High-end primary prices, Hanoi
Asking Price (US$ psm)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
150–250 units/launch 250–350 units/launch 350–450 units/launch
>500 units/launch
17 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Buyers in the Affordable Segment
HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Breakdown of Monthly Household Income
Surveyed from more than 2,000 Ehome customers
Source: Nam Long, Q3 2014.
28%
40%
19%
6% 7%
BelowUS$500
US$500 -$1,000
US$1,000 -$1,500
US$1,500 -$2,000
AboveUS$2,000
63% long-term employees
with stable income
>3/4 from 25 to 45
years old
64% want to buy two-
bedroom units
Price Living environment Key Factors to Choose a New House
18 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Buyers in the Affordable Segment
HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
Bank Loan Support
Surveyed from more than 2,000 Ehome customers
Source: Nam Long, Q3 2014.
81% want to apply bank loan for
new home purchase
56% expect a stable interest rate
29% prefer a 20-year loan payment
Expected Promotion in a New House Purchase
34% prefer a direct discount on the price
31% prefer a longer payment term
19 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Foreign Investors Come for JV. High-end Supply
HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
“Premium Affordable Housing”
Launch event, December 2014
3 months later, March 2015
20 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply - Expected Strong Supply in 2015
CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE
The
West –
43%
Midtown –
8% The
East/
South
East –
28%
HCMC: The East and the South continue to accommodate most developments.
Hanoi: The West still has the most supply in pipeline – but the East and South
East is becoming an attractive cluster
South
West –
21%
The
West –
43%
Midtown –
8%The
East/
South
East –
28%South
West –
21%
NO
RT
H
16%
HCMC ~22,000 units
Hanoi ~13,000 units
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
21 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE
Sales momentum is expected to remain positive as
the market has seen the return of not only end-users
but also investors (and speculators).
Should we be worried about an over-hyped market?
Prices are expected to gradually edge up. Even the
reputable developers are cautious with pricing
strategy, taking into account the affordability of the
mass market.
The resurgence of top-tier projects: Singaporean and
Korean developers are preparing to kick-off huge
projects while Japanese investors and Joint Ventures
are looking for residential development sites.
22 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Q1 2015 Snapshot
RETAIL
Retail Department store* Shopping centre Retail podium** Bazaar Total
Total supply (properties) 9 11 14 7 41
Total supply (NLA, sm) 108,827 307,410 63,399 37,633 517,269
New supply (properties) 0 1 0 1 2
New supply (NLA, sm) 0 16,716 0 2,635 19,351
Net absorption (NLA, sm) 3,047
Vacancy rate (%) 10.2% 9.6% 6.7% 14.2% 9.7%
Q-o-q change (pp) -0.3 pp 3.8 pp -0.7 pp -1.8 pp
Y-o-y change (pp) 1.1 pp -2.1 pp -4.7 pp -0.8 pp
CBD – Average asking rents $91.2 $102.2 $60.2 $119.5
Q-o-q change (%) 0% -4.1% 5.1% -0.9%
Y-o-Y change (%) -6.3% 2.3% -0.5% 1.2%
Non-CBD – Average asking
rents $44.7 $33.5 $15.3 $80.1
Q-o-q change (%) 1.9% -0.3% 2.2% 0%
Y-o-Y change (%) -0.5% 9.0% 0.1% 5.2%
(*) Stand-alone department store, excluding Robins department store, which is the anchor tenant of Crescent Mall.
(**) A subcategory of Shopping/Retail Centre, normally retail space in the podium of office, hotel or residential towers
All rents are asking rents of the ground and first floor (US$/sm/month), exclusive of VAT and service charge. Rent of bazaar format (e.g. Saigon Square, Lucky Plaza...) quoted for small size unit, usually from 3 – 5
sm, therefore, resulting in a high rate psm.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
23 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
NEW SUPPLY AND RE-OPENING IN Q1 2015
RETAIL
VINCOM THU DUC
Thu Duc District
GFA: 27,860 sm
Opened Jan. 2015
SAIGON SQUARE 3
District 3
GFA: 3,100 sm
Opened: Jan. 2015
SENTINEL PLACE
Hoan Kiem District
GFA: 700 sm
Re-opened: Jan. 2015
HANOI 3 HCMC 2
HOA BINH GREEN CITY
Hoang Mai District
NLA: 25,000 sm
Opened: Jan. 2015
63 LY THAI TO
Hoan Kiem District
NLA: 561 sm
Re-opened: Feb. 2015
24 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
RETAIL RENTS PASSED THE BOTTOM
* Average retail rents exclude VAT and Service charge.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
HCMC Hanoi
2015 Q1
2014
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2013
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2012
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2011
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
NON-CBD CBD
0 50 100 150050100150
2015 Q1
2014
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2013
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2012
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2011
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
NON-CBD CBD
0 50 100 150050100150
25 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
RETAIL - HEALTHY OCCUPANCY RATES
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
HCMC Hanoi
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-20,000
20,000
60,000
100,000
140,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Va
ca
ncy R
ate
(%
)
Net A
bso
rptio
n (
sm
)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-20,000
20,000
60,000
100,000
140,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
26 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
DISTRICT 2 EMERGES AS A NEW RETAIL CLUSTER
Vinhomes Central Park
59,000 GFA sm
Open in 2018
Estella Heights
37,290 GFA sm
Open in 2018
Thao Dien Pearl
20,400 GFA sm
Open in 2016
Pearl Plaza
20,579 GFA sm
Open in 2015
Lexington Residence
Open in 2016
T
The Sun Avenue
Open in 2016
Vincom Megamall Thao Dien
120,000 GFA sm
Open in 2016
27 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Asian retailers are expanding by cooperating with local retailers
INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS EXPANSION
AEON
BJC
BJC’s B's Mart bought 94 Family marts in Vietnam
aim to expand to 300 stores by 2018
Vietnam as a 2nd
most important market in SEA
Survey online
11,000 consumers in
11 major cities
Include 1,000 consumers in
Vietnam
• Pre-purchase
• Purchase
Separate the process of
shopping into two phases
APAC CONSUMER SURVEY
VIETNAM
29 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HOW DO CUSTOMERS VALUE THE IMPROVEMENTS OF SHOPPING CENTRES?
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.
60%
54%
54%
57%
62%
60%
51%
59%
55%
43%
43%
50%
62%
52%
38%
55%
66%
64%
56%
63%
58%
42%
46%
52%
47%
45%
33%
44%
32%
21%
24%
28%
5%
9%
18%
9%
Large mall
Small mall
High street
Total
More/better catering facilities Renovation of the centre
Bigger in size with more shops open Addition of new international brands
More/better loyalty program More entertainment facilities
Introduction of free parking More events
None of these
Ongoing improvements of shopping centres noticed by consumer
30 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
WHAT MAKES A SHOPPING CENTRE/HIGH STREET ATTRACTIVE?
Overall
Low household income (<VND
4,000,000/month)
Mid household income (VND
4,000,000 – 20,000,000/month)
High household income
(>VND20,000,000/month)
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.
Important Factors in a Non-Food Shopping Trip
31 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HOW DO SHOPPERS REACH THEIR DESTINATION?
How do You Travel to Your Preferred
Shopping Destination?
Private (Car + Motorcycle)
Public (Bus, MRT, BTS)
Walk/Bicycle
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.
32 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
HOW DO SHOPPERS REACH THEIR DESTINATION?
How Long does Your Journey to the Mall Take on Average?
1 to 5 mins
6 to 15 mins
16 to 30 mins
Over 30 mins
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.
33 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
INTERACTION BETWEEN ONLINE AND IN-STORE
Over the next two years:
25% of respondents expect to shop less often in a
store;
45% - 50% of respondents said that they would
shop online more often;
Even greater proportion of consumers (69%) aged
from 55 to 64 actually think that they would use
their smartphone/tablet more frequently to shop.
Adapt strategies to boost both e-commerce and
offline business activities by
1. Leverage big data
2. Implement Online to Offline (O2O) strategies
3. Create simple and useful apps
Do less often
No change
Do more often
34 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
RETAIL
Rent of inline stores starts to increase.
District 2 and Binh Thanh District emerged as
new retail cluster. Large-scale projects will
dominate the market.
Shopping centres with weak performance will
need to re-merchandise while adding more
anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become
more popular.
35 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
OFFICE GRADE A GRADE B TOTAL
Number of properties 11 57 68
Total supply (GFA, sm) 329,931 928,891 1,258,822
Total supply (NLA, sm) 254,557 700,455 955,012
New supply (properties) - - -
New supply (GFA, sm) - - -
Net absorption (NLA, sm) 807 15,196 16,003
Q-o-q change (%) -31.7% -20.7% -21.4%
Y-o-y change (%) 28.3% 37.1% 36.6%
Vacancy rate (%) 7.9% 6.2% 6.6%
Q-o-q change (pp) -0.3 -2.2 -1.7
Y-o-y change (pp) -1.9 -3.8 -3.3
Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) 35.1 19.1 23.39
Q-o-q change (%) -3.4% 0.4% -1.6%
Y-o-y change (%) -2.1% -0.4% -1.7%
Q1 2015 Snapshot
OFFICE
All rents are the average rent quoted on the NLA basis, exclusive of VAT and service charge
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
36 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Asking Rent
OFFICE
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
GRADE B GRADE A
Q-o-Q
GRADE A GRADE B
Y-o-Y
3.4% 0.4%
2.1% 0.4%
Q1 15
CB
D
Grade A: -0.9% q-o-q
Grade B: +0.1% q-o-q
Non-CBD Grade A: -3.6%q-o-q
Grade B: -0.4%q-o-q $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35
2015 Q1
2014
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
2013
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
$19.1 $34.2
37 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
OFFICE Positive Net Absorption and Decreasing Vacancy Rate
HCMC Hanoi
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
36%
42%
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013 2014 2015N
et a
bso
rptio
n (
sm
)
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2013 2014 2015
Ne
t a
bso
rptio
n (
sm
)
Note: Hanoi’s asking rents include service charge and exclude VAT, HCMC asking rent exclude service charge and VAT.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
38 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Tenants Breakdown (based on CBRE’s enquiries in Q1 2015)
OFFICE
Tenants’ Origin, HCMC Tenant Preference, HCMC
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015
Tenants’ Origin, Hanoi Tenant Preference, Hanoi
32%
32%
36%
39%
45%
34%
26%
18%
20%
3%
5%
9%
14Q1
14Q4
15Q1
<100 100-300 300-1000 >1000
60%
43%
52%
40%
57%
48%
Local Foreign
11%
27%
33%
33%
33%
56%
44%
27%
11%
11%
13%
0%
14Q1
14Q4
15Q1
<100 100-300 300-1000 >1000
20%
11%
33%
80%
89%
67%
Local Foreign
39 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Future Supply
OFFICE
PEARL PLAZA
561A Dien Bien Phu St,
Ward 25, Binh Thanh.
GFA: 37,434 sm
Estimated
completion: Q3/2015
VIETCOMBANK TOWER
5 Me Linh Square, D1
GFA: 55,000 sm
Estimated completion:
Q2/2015
VIETTEL OFFICE &
TRADE CENTER
285 Cach Mang Thang
Tam, D10
GFA: 65,971 sm
Estimated completion:
Q1/2016
LIM 2 TOWER
158 Vo Van Tan, D3
GFA: 20,467 sm
Estimated
completion: Q3/2015
Coming soon in 2015
DEUTSCHES HAUS
Le Duan - Le Van Huu, D1
GFA: 40,000 sm
Estimated completion:
Q3/2017
40 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Outlook
OFFICE
Office market in Q1 is cautious as investors are
scanning, preparing and inspecting the market.
Green office buildings save energy, enhance
workforce health and improve quality of tenants.
Economic recovery and expansion of
international companies will positively raise
office market in all key indicators. Rent is a
deciding factor rather than location.
41 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES IN Q1 2015
42 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
INVESTMENT
Data recorded during the period of 2011- 2015 YTD
Source: RCA, retrieved Mar 2015.
Sellers Origin in terms of Number of Deals
VALUATION TRANSPARENCY STRUCTURING TRACK RECORD
Buyers Origin in terms of Number of Deals
Investment Sectors in terms of Transaction Value Investment Sectors in terms of Number of Deals
37%
20%
17%
13%
10% 3% Development Site
Office
Hotel
Apartment
Retail
Industrial
32%
30%
28%
7% 4% 1% Retail
Hotel
Office
Dev Site
Apartment
Industrial
63% 14%
8%
6% 4% 4% 2% Domestic
Korea
Singapore
Japan
Offshore
Thailand
Taiwan
54%
15%
13%
8%
5% 3% 3% Domestic
Hong Kong
Korea
Offshore
Netherlands
Japan
Malaysia
43 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
Track Record
Still four remaining questions
44 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015
SECTOR SEGMENT HCMC/ SOUTH HANOI/ NORTH
RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION
OFFICE New buildings
Mature buildings
RETAIL CBD
Non-CBD
CONDOMINIUM
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
HOTELS Inner-city hotels
Beach hotels/resorts
SERVICED APT. Grade A
INDUSTRIAL Land
Factory/ warehouse
CONCLUSION - 2015 OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.
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