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HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 Presented by: Dung Duong Thursday, April 2, 2015
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HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

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Page 1: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 Presented by: Dung Duong

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Page 2: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

2 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

IF IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE!

Page 3: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

3 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

7.8%

8.4% 8.2% 8.5%

6.3%

5.3%

6.8%

5.9%

5.0% 5.4%

6.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.

Vietnam GDP Growth Rate

Quarterly

“ ANZ has revised its GDP

growth forecast for

Vietnam in 2015 and 2016

upwards, to 6.5% for both

years from the previous

6.2% and 6.4%,

respectively.

5.0% 5.3% 6.1%

7.0% 6.0%

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15

Page 4: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

4 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Vietnam among Top Fastest Growing Economies

POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM ECONOMY

Breakdown of components of average annual real GDP growth (2014 – 2050)

Source: PwC Analysis, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue, February 2015.

Page 5: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

5 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Vietnam Retail Sales

Vietnam Car Sales

-30%

20%

70%

120%

170%

-

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015

Gro

wth

rate

(%

)

No. o

f ca

r

No. of cars selling % change YoY

Registration fee reduced from 10% -

20% to 10% - 15% in April.

Import duty on cars from ASEAN countries

will decrease from 50% to 0% by 2018.

Target credit growth

2M: 0.68%

2015: 13-15%

2014: 14%

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, Q1 2015.

Source: Vietnam Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, March 2015.

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

42%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4P

Q1 2

01

5

Gro

wth

Ra

te (

%)

Tu

rno

ve

r (T

rilli

on

do

ng)

Retails and Services Turnover Retails and Services Turnover Growth

Annual Car Sales:

Vietnam: 150,000 units

Thailand: 850,000 units

Indonesia: 1,250,000 units

Page 6: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

6 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

FALLING OIL PRICE TRIGGERS TRADE DEFICIT? Dollar, Gold and Oil Chart - Last Ten Years

Compares the movement in the dollar index (major trading partners) with gold and oil prices over the last ten

years. The three series are compared using standard deviation.

Source: Macrotrends, April 1, 2015.

+20% y-o-y vs. EUR

and Yen

US$1,186/oz

-8% y-o-y

US$47.4/barrel

-47% y-o-y

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

18,932

20,703 21,036 21,246

21,458

20,803

Vietnam Interbank Exchange Rate

Vietnam Trade Balance

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3M2015

US

$ b

illio

n

Export

Import

PMI VN-Index

Page 7: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC

Exchange Rate

Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2015.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lo

ca

l cu

rre

ncy p

er

US

D

JPY

INR

AUD

MYR

THB

SGD-TWD

PHP

VND

KRW-HKD

NZD

CNY

Vietnam Government Bond Yield Movement

Page 8: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

8 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

BANK CUT RATES ON THE BACK OF LOW INFLATION

• Lending rate: Average lending rate for enterprises.

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office, State Bank of Vietnam.

Vietnam Interest Rates and Inflation

HSBC Bank has predicted that the central bank would mull another cut of

the open market operations (OMO) rate to beef up domestic demand and

growth thanks to low inflation this year.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Inte

rest ra

te (

%)

Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate

Mortgage rate for the first 12 months:

Jan. 15 Mar. 15 Max. loan terms/

Loan-to-value

• Techcombank 9.49% 7.99% 20 years/ 70%

• Vietcombank 7.99% 7.5% 15 years/ 70%

• ACB 8.90% 7.5% 20 years/ 75%

Page 9: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

9 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

NEW REAL ESTATE FIRMS ON SHARP RISE

Source: Vietnamese General Statistical Office.

* All the above articles were retrieved in March 2015.

Restructuring banking system:

• Some large banks will have to merge

with smaller banks, while the central

bank will directly handle other

lenders.

1. Newly registered Real Estate companies +49% y-o-y;

2. Newly registered Art, Entertainment and Recreation

companies +49% y-o-y.

Novaland to go public end of 2015

19,000 newly registered 4% y-o-y

2,055 firms were resolved 9% y-o-y

16,175 suspended operation 14% y-o-y

4,376 resumed operation 20% y-o-y

Page 10: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

10 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN – VIETNAM’S BIGGEST FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS

Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment, 3M 2015

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Pelosi, Bipartisan Delegation Conclude

Two-Day Visit to Vietnam 76%

11%

7% 6% Manufacturing

Real estate

Wholesale, retail sale andrepair industries

Others

Vietnam overseas remittance hit US$12

billion in 2014, accounting for 8% of

Vietnam’s GDP, up 13% y-o-y.

Page 11: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

11 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

INFRASTRUCTURE - HCMC

Construction started on

Metro Line No. 2 at

Tham Luong depot

District12.

Estimated completion:

Q3/2016

Ground breaking of

Thu Thiem 2 Bridge

Estimated completion:

30 April 2018

Full opening of Long

Thanh - Dau Giay

Highway.

Length: 55 km

Linked HCMC to South

East part

Estimated investment

cost for Long Thanh

International Airport

project to reduce by 15%

04 February 2015 25 February 2015 16 January 2015 08 February 2015

Page 12: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

12 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Q1 2015 Snapshot

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END AFFORDABLE TOTAL

Total launched supply (units) 1,278 40,006 33,656 49,563 124,503

New launch (units)* 0 3,196 344 1,610 5,150

Total completed supply (units) 817 24,428 21,835 27,000 74,080

New completion (units)* 0 905 560 850 2,315

Average Primary Prices (US$ psm) $4,374 $1,717 $978 $664

Q-o-q change (%) 3.9% 1.0% -3.7% -1.0%

Y-o-y change (%) 3.6% 3.7% 2.3% -3.6%

(*) Excluding soft launches and re-launches

(**) Excluding delayed projects / units

All prices are quoted exclusive of VAT and service charges. Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

Page 13: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

13 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Recovery Continues and High-end Apartment Sales Come Back

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

16,200 units

Q1 2015 Q1 2014

873 units

5,150 units

New launches tripled y-o-y

Sales doubled y-o-y

1,155 units

Q1 2014

2,593 units

Q1 2015

16,200 units

Q1 2015 Q1 2014

2,600 units

4,880 units

New launches up 82% y-o-y

Sales doubled y-o-y

1,500 units

Q1 2014

3,080 units

Q1 2015

HCMC Hanoi

Page 14: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

14 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

31% 37% 40%

31% 31% 27%

37% 31% 32%

1% 2% 1%

Before 2010 Mid-2010 After 2015

Luxury

High-end

Mid-end

Affordable

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE 2015 Q1 New Launches – The Expansion of High-end & Affordable

6 projects

1360 units

2 projects

230 units

2 projects

473 units

1 project

282 units

1 project

700 units

1 project

495 units

2 projects

508 units

2 projects

678 units

2 projects

424 units

HCMC

~5,150 units

17 projects 1 project

198 units

2 project

223 units

1 project

50 units

2 projects 270 units

2 projects

275 units

Hoai Duc

5 projects

3,297 units 2 projects

337 units

3 projects

229 units

Cau Giay

Dong Da

Ha Dong

Hoang Mai

Tu Liem

Hanoi

4,880 units

18 projects

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

20% 17% 26%

63% 63% 57%

15% 18% 15% 3% 2% 2%

2009 2011 2015

Luxury

High-end

Mid-end

Affordable

2 projects

223units

Page 15: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

15 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

02,0004,0006,0008,000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Luxury High-end Mid-end Low-end

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Sales Momentum Remains Strong Despite A Long Tet Break

Sold Units

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

HCMC

138% y-o-y

Ha Noi

103% y-o-y

Page 16: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

16 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE Developers Are Increasing Prices, Do They?

• Primary prices for high-end and affordable projects witnessed a slight increase

• Seen in projects in good locations, reputable developers, showing good

construction progress; not across the board!

High-end primary prices, HCMC High-end primary prices, Hanoi

Asking Price (US$ psm)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

150–250 units/launch 250–350 units/launch 350–450 units/launch

>500 units/launch

Page 17: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

17 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Buyers in the Affordable Segment

HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

Breakdown of Monthly Household Income

Surveyed from more than 2,000 Ehome customers

Source: Nam Long, Q3 2014.

28%

40%

19%

6% 7%

BelowUS$500

US$500 -$1,000

US$1,000 -$1,500

US$1,500 -$2,000

AboveUS$2,000

63% long-term employees

with stable income

>3/4 from 25 to 45

years old

64% want to buy two-

bedroom units

Price Living environment Key Factors to Choose a New House

Page 18: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

18 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Buyers in the Affordable Segment

HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

Bank Loan Support

Surveyed from more than 2,000 Ehome customers

Source: Nam Long, Q3 2014.

81% want to apply bank loan for

new home purchase

56% expect a stable interest rate

29% prefer a 20-year loan payment

Expected Promotion in a New House Purchase

34% prefer a direct discount on the price

31% prefer a longer payment term

Page 19: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

19 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Foreign Investors Come for JV. High-end Supply

HCMC CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

“Premium Affordable Housing”

Launch event, December 2014

3 months later, March 2015

Page 20: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

20 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Future Supply - Expected Strong Supply in 2015

CONDOMINIUM FOR SALE

The

West –

43%

Midtown –

8% The

East/

South

East –

28%

HCMC: The East and the South continue to accommodate most developments.

Hanoi: The West still has the most supply in pipeline – but the East and South

East is becoming an attractive cluster

South

West –

21%

The

West –

43%

Midtown –

8%The

East/

South

East –

28%South

West –

21%

NO

RT

H

16%

HCMC ~22,000 units

Hanoi ~13,000 units

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

Page 21: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

21 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Outlook

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE

Sales momentum is expected to remain positive as

the market has seen the return of not only end-users

but also investors (and speculators).

Should we be worried about an over-hyped market?

Prices are expected to gradually edge up. Even the

reputable developers are cautious with pricing

strategy, taking into account the affordability of the

mass market.

The resurgence of top-tier projects: Singaporean and

Korean developers are preparing to kick-off huge

projects while Japanese investors and Joint Ventures

are looking for residential development sites.

Page 22: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

22 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Q1 2015 Snapshot

RETAIL

Retail Department store* Shopping centre Retail podium** Bazaar Total

Total supply (properties) 9 11 14 7 41

Total supply (NLA, sm) 108,827 307,410 63,399 37,633 517,269

New supply (properties) 0 1 0 1 2

New supply (NLA, sm) 0 16,716 0 2,635 19,351

Net absorption (NLA, sm) 3,047

Vacancy rate (%) 10.2% 9.6% 6.7% 14.2% 9.7%

Q-o-q change (pp) -0.3 pp 3.8 pp -0.7 pp -1.8 pp

Y-o-y change (pp) 1.1 pp -2.1 pp -4.7 pp -0.8 pp

CBD – Average asking rents $91.2 $102.2 $60.2 $119.5

Q-o-q change (%) 0% -4.1% 5.1% -0.9%

Y-o-Y change (%) -6.3% 2.3% -0.5% 1.2%

Non-CBD – Average asking

rents $44.7 $33.5 $15.3 $80.1

Q-o-q change (%) 1.9% -0.3% 2.2% 0%

Y-o-Y change (%) -0.5% 9.0% 0.1% 5.2%

(*) Stand-alone department store, excluding Robins department store, which is the anchor tenant of Crescent Mall.

(**) A subcategory of Shopping/Retail Centre, normally retail space in the podium of office, hotel or residential towers

All rents are asking rents of the ground and first floor (US$/sm/month), exclusive of VAT and service charge. Rent of bazaar format (e.g. Saigon Square, Lucky Plaza...) quoted for small size unit, usually from 3 – 5

sm, therefore, resulting in a high rate psm.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

Page 23: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

23 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

NEW SUPPLY AND RE-OPENING IN Q1 2015

RETAIL

VINCOM THU DUC

Thu Duc District

GFA: 27,860 sm

Opened Jan. 2015

SAIGON SQUARE 3

District 3

GFA: 3,100 sm

Opened: Jan. 2015

SENTINEL PLACE

Hoan Kiem District

GFA: 700 sm

Re-opened: Jan. 2015

HANOI 3 HCMC 2

HOA BINH GREEN CITY

Hoang Mai District

NLA: 25,000 sm

Opened: Jan. 2015

63 LY THAI TO

Hoan Kiem District

NLA: 561 sm

Re-opened: Feb. 2015

Page 24: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

24 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

RETAIL RENTS PASSED THE BOTTOM

* Average retail rents exclude VAT and Service charge.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

HCMC Hanoi

2015 Q1

2014

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2013

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2012

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2011

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

NON-CBD CBD

0 50 100 150050100150

2015 Q1

2014

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2013

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2012

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2011

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

NON-CBD CBD

0 50 100 150050100150

Page 25: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

25 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

RETAIL - HEALTHY OCCUPANCY RATES

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

HCMC Hanoi

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20,000

20,000

60,000

100,000

140,000

180,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Va

ca

ncy R

ate

(%

)

Net A

bso

rptio

n (

sm

)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-20,000

20,000

60,000

100,000

140,000

180,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 26: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

26 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

DISTRICT 2 EMERGES AS A NEW RETAIL CLUSTER

Vinhomes Central Park

59,000 GFA sm

Open in 2018

Estella Heights

37,290 GFA sm

Open in 2018

Thao Dien Pearl

20,400 GFA sm

Open in 2016

Pearl Plaza

20,579 GFA sm

Open in 2015

Lexington Residence

Open in 2016

T

The Sun Avenue

Open in 2016

Vincom Megamall Thao Dien

120,000 GFA sm

Open in 2016

Page 27: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

27 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Asian retailers are expanding by cooperating with local retailers

INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS EXPANSION

AEON

BJC

BJC’s B's Mart bought 94 Family marts in Vietnam

aim to expand to 300 stores by 2018

Vietnam as a 2nd

most important market in SEA

Page 28: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

Survey online

11,000 consumers in

11 major cities

Include 1,000 consumers in

Vietnam

• Pre-purchase

• Purchase

Separate the process of

shopping into two phases

APAC CONSUMER SURVEY

VIETNAM

Page 29: HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS - Q1 2015 - CBRE Vietnam...VN-Index 7 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015 VND AMONG TOP STRONGEST CURRENCIES IN APAC Exchange Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q1

29 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HOW DO CUSTOMERS VALUE THE IMPROVEMENTS OF SHOPPING CENTRES?

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.

60%

54%

54%

57%

62%

60%

51%

59%

55%

43%

43%

50%

62%

52%

38%

55%

66%

64%

56%

63%

58%

42%

46%

52%

47%

45%

33%

44%

32%

21%

24%

28%

5%

9%

18%

9%

Large mall

Small mall

High street

Total

More/better catering facilities Renovation of the centre

Bigger in size with more shops open Addition of new international brands

More/better loyalty program More entertainment facilities

Introduction of free parking More events

None of these

Ongoing improvements of shopping centres noticed by consumer

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30 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

WHAT MAKES A SHOPPING CENTRE/HIGH STREET ATTRACTIVE?

Overall

Low household income (<VND

4,000,000/month)

Mid household income (VND

4,000,000 – 20,000,000/month)

High household income

(>VND20,000,000/month)

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.

Important Factors in a Non-Food Shopping Trip

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31 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HOW DO SHOPPERS REACH THEIR DESTINATION?

How do You Travel to Your Preferred

Shopping Destination?

Private (Car + Motorcycle)

Public (Bus, MRT, BTS)

Walk/Bicycle

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.

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32 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

HOW DO SHOPPERS REACH THEIR DESTINATION?

How Long does Your Journey to the Mall Take on Average?

1 to 5 mins

6 to 15 mins

16 to 30 mins

Over 30 mins

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Consumer Survey, 2014.

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33 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

INTERACTION BETWEEN ONLINE AND IN-STORE

Over the next two years:

25% of respondents expect to shop less often in a

store;

45% - 50% of respondents said that they would

shop online more often;

Even greater proportion of consumers (69%) aged

from 55 to 64 actually think that they would use

their smartphone/tablet more frequently to shop.

Adapt strategies to boost both e-commerce and

offline business activities by

1. Leverage big data

2. Implement Online to Offline (O2O) strategies

3. Create simple and useful apps

Do less often

No change

Do more often

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34 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Outlook

RETAIL

Rent of inline stores starts to increase.

District 2 and Binh Thanh District emerged as

new retail cluster. Large-scale projects will

dominate the market.

Shopping centres with weak performance will

need to re-merchandise while adding more

anchor tenants. Turnover share scheme become

more popular.

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35 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

OFFICE GRADE A GRADE B TOTAL

Number of properties 11 57 68

Total supply (GFA, sm) 329,931 928,891 1,258,822

Total supply (NLA, sm) 254,557 700,455 955,012

New supply (properties) - - -

New supply (GFA, sm) - - -

Net absorption (NLA, sm) 807 15,196 16,003

Q-o-q change (%) -31.7% -20.7% -21.4%

Y-o-y change (%) 28.3% 37.1% 36.6%

Vacancy rate (%) 7.9% 6.2% 6.6%

Q-o-q change (pp) -0.3 -2.2 -1.7

Y-o-y change (pp) -1.9 -3.8 -3.3

Average asking rents (US$ psm per month) 35.1 19.1 23.39

Q-o-q change (%) -3.4% 0.4% -1.6%

Y-o-y change (%) -2.1% -0.4% -1.7%

Q1 2015 Snapshot

OFFICE

All rents are the average rent quoted on the NLA basis, exclusive of VAT and service charge

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

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36 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Asking Rent

OFFICE

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

AVERAGE ASKING RENT

(US$/sm/month)

GRADE B GRADE A

Q-o-Q

GRADE A GRADE B

Y-o-Y

3.4% 0.4%

2.1% 0.4%

Q1 15

CB

D

Grade A: -0.9% q-o-q

Grade B: +0.1% q-o-q

Non-CBD Grade A: -3.6%q-o-q

Grade B: -0.4%q-o-q $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35

2015 Q1

2014

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

2013

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

$19.1 $34.2

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37 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

OFFICE Positive Net Absorption and Decreasing Vacancy Rate

HCMC Hanoi

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

42%

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 2015N

et a

bso

rptio

n (

sm

)

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 2015

Ne

t a

bso

rptio

n (

sm

)

Note: Hanoi’s asking rents include service charge and exclude VAT, HCMC asking rent exclude service charge and VAT.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

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38 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Tenants Breakdown (based on CBRE’s enquiries in Q1 2015)

OFFICE

Tenants’ Origin, HCMC Tenant Preference, HCMC

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015

Tenants’ Origin, Hanoi Tenant Preference, Hanoi

32%

32%

36%

39%

45%

34%

26%

18%

20%

3%

5%

9%

14Q1

14Q4

15Q1

<100 100-300 300-1000 >1000

60%

43%

52%

40%

57%

48%

Local Foreign

11%

27%

33%

33%

33%

56%

44%

27%

11%

11%

13%

0%

14Q1

14Q4

15Q1

<100 100-300 300-1000 >1000

20%

11%

33%

80%

89%

67%

Local Foreign

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Future Supply

OFFICE

PEARL PLAZA

561A Dien Bien Phu St,

Ward 25, Binh Thanh.

GFA: 37,434 sm

Estimated

completion: Q3/2015

VIETCOMBANK TOWER

5 Me Linh Square, D1

GFA: 55,000 sm

Estimated completion:

Q2/2015

VIETTEL OFFICE &

TRADE CENTER

285 Cach Mang Thang

Tam, D10

GFA: 65,971 sm

Estimated completion:

Q1/2016

LIM 2 TOWER

158 Vo Van Tan, D3

GFA: 20,467 sm

Estimated

completion: Q3/2015

Coming soon in 2015

DEUTSCHES HAUS

Le Duan - Le Van Huu, D1

GFA: 40,000 sm

Estimated completion:

Q3/2017

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40 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

Outlook

OFFICE

Office market in Q1 is cautious as investors are

scanning, preparing and inspecting the market.

Green office buildings save energy, enhance

workforce health and improve quality of tenants.

Economic recovery and expansion of

international companies will positively raise

office market in all key indicators. Rent is a

deciding factor rather than location.

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41 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES IN Q1 2015

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42 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

INVESTMENT

Data recorded during the period of 2011- 2015 YTD

Source: RCA, retrieved Mar 2015.

Sellers Origin in terms of Number of Deals

VALUATION TRANSPARENCY STRUCTURING TRACK RECORD

Buyers Origin in terms of Number of Deals

Investment Sectors in terms of Transaction Value Investment Sectors in terms of Number of Deals

37%

20%

17%

13%

10% 3% Development Site

Office

Hotel

Apartment

Retail

Industrial

32%

30%

28%

7% 4% 1% Retail

Hotel

Office

Dev Site

Apartment

Industrial

63% 14%

8%

6% 4% 4% 2% Domestic

Korea

Singapore

Japan

Offshore

Thailand

Taiwan

54%

15%

13%

8%

5% 3% 3% Domestic

Hong Kong

Korea

Offshore

Netherlands

Japan

Malaysia

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Track Record

Still four remaining questions

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44 CBRE | HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2015

SECTOR SEGMENT HCMC/ SOUTH HANOI/ NORTH

RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION RENT/PRICE ABSORPTION

OFFICE New buildings

Mature buildings

RETAIL CBD

Non-CBD

CONDOMINIUM

High-end

Mid-end

Affordable

HOTELS Inner-city hotels

Beach hotels/resorts

SERVICED APT. Grade A

INDUSTRIAL Land

Factory/ warehouse

CONCLUSION - 2015 OUTLOOK

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q1 2015.

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All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T +84 8 3824 6125

F +84 8 3823 8418

Email: [email protected]