Hatchery Fish and Natural Productivity of Pink and Chum ... · Hatchery Fish and Natural Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Populations in Alaska Mark Chilcote

Hatchery Fish and Natural Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Populations in Alaska

Mark Chilcote

Climate Change Assessment Origins

FS assessment of climate change Annual variation in salmon and air temperature Exceptional salmon database

Prince William Sound Salmon Data

- 211 survey sites x 5 - Fishery impact rates - 30 years - Hatchery fraction

(600m pinks, 100m chum)

Alaska Dept of Fish and Game

Rich Brenner Steve Moffitt

Population Model Climate Change Assessment Use

Ln(Rec) = [Ln(Spwn) + Ln(α) – βS] + γT

Population Model Productivity Estimate Use

Ln(Rec) = [Ln(Spwn) + Ln(α) – βS] + γT

plus hatchery fraction = Adventure !

Preliminary Results

Compared to Chilcote et al 2011

Problems and Errors?

Not many points at Ph > 0.30 Harvest rate estimate creates bias? Crude analytical approach Plus …..

Possible Explanations?

Genetic – mate selection Genetic – spawn timing, damage wild redds,

poor fry survival Ecological Other?

What is Next ?

More data points Better analysis More time - help ?

Questions?