GTP Presentation: Introduction and Contextualisation: Imagining the Future

Introduction and Context

Shahid Solomon

Programme Executive, GTP

IMAGINING THE FUTURE: CAPE TOWN’S SECOND METROPOLITAN NODE

The Focus Area

1.Feeling the Temperature2.Imagining the Future 3.Exploring the Possibilities 4.Integrating and Aligning 5.International Design

Competition

FIVE PERSPECTIVES

African City

Scenarios

Corridor Structure and Place Making

Knowledge and

Innovation Hub

Network Society

Integrated TransportCorridor Corrido

r Model Mark I Mark IIMark III

FIVE THEMES

A WORLD IN TRANSITION

1771 Industrial Revolution1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways 1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity &

Heavy Engineering1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles &

Mass Production1971 Age of Information &

Telecommunications2013 Midpoint of Age of Information &

Telecommunications

2020 Era of Turbulence

2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

MID CENTURY

Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

THE ROAD TO MID CENTURY Four Hard Riders

Five Easy Riders

Two Zebras

Seven Human Generations

Four Hard Riders

• CO2 : Climate change• Ocean acidification • Global nitrogen cycle (N) cycle • Global freshwater use • Land system change & soil loss• Biological diversity loss • Chemical pollution

1. ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY

IPCC Report 27 Sep 2013

Carbon dioxide is at an "unprecedented" level not seen for at least the last 800,000 years.

Sea level is set to continue to rise at a faster rate than over the past 40 years.

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting, glaciers and Arctic sea ice have continued to shrink.

changes seen in climate since the 1950s are "unprecedented over decades to millennia."

2. A WORLD RUN BY POWERFUL, AGEING 20TH CENTURY NATION STATES

3. GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS

More Rounds & Rounds of talking

OR

Executive Global Government ?

4. GLOBAL FINANCE

Global Casino of Financialisation

OR

Recapitalise Re-novation of Global Infrastructure ?

FIVE Easy Riders

1. LIFE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER! FOR MORE PEOPLE FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO

Population Growth Rates Declining

Better Quality of Life

Famine has become rare

People are Living 25% longer than 40 years ago

Greater choice & opportunity than ever before

Huge reductions in Poverty

Better health: lifestyle

diseases now key issue

Higher Standards of Living

GDP per person has doubled since 1970

Cost of Communication has been slashed

Price of metals & commodities reducing

More holidays, media choice, information

• The Green Wave• algal aircraft fuel• super efficient solar • composting toilets

• Internet Everywhere • Network-linked chips in everything : 1 trillion by 2025• Talking video smartphones for all• Augmented Reality• Personal Computing Device

• Biotechnology: • Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science • Redesign of the human being: Genetic Engineering & Transhumanism • Redesign of materials

2. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION: A MATTER OF TIME & MARKET

3. Other Global trends

Dematerialisation

3D Printing

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Bio feedstock & fuels

Membrane Technology

Mass Customisation

Localisation of Production

4. Fast Rail Linked to Air Transport = Aerotropolis

ELECTRIC NETWORKED-VEHICLE (EN-V)

Drives automatically and comes when you call it via iPhone

GPS, distance-sensing technology and vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems  would ease congestion and reduce the risk of accidents.

At one-sixth the size of a regular car, the pods are made of lightweight materials like carbon fiber and weigh just 1,000 pounds.

You can fit five of them into one parking spot.

SMART TRANSPORT

Smart car pooling companies.

Door-to- door taxi service

Congestion Pricing

Dynamic ride sharing

Real-time transportation and driving services will be able to adjust automatically according to weather, schedule infractions and congestion

FULLY AUTOMATED VEHICLES Users can “punch in” or “speak” the place they

want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. 

will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for FLYING VEHICLES

More transport options towards 2030

electric automobiles and hybrids dominate

Self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark“Glow Roads”

And by 2050…

Bcause of friction-free technologies and advances in material science, the average passenger vehicle will weigh less than 90 kg

because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for a vehicle will be less than one hour

the cost of the average vehicle will be under R 50 000

because of the use of automated navigation systems, traffic courts will be a distant memory.

AFRICA IN TRANSITION

SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION

EASY RIDERS

Solid Financial System

Macro Economi

c Stability

White Middle Class

Black Middle Class

Tax Base

Corporate Competiti

veness

SOLID CORPORATE CORE

EMERGING MARKET LEADER : Faster GDP growth than Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey

A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY

• Population Stable & Ageing

• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY

Country Population (millions)*

2012 2030 MID CENTURY

GAIN 2012 -MID CENTURY

SOUTH AFRICA

50 54 56 +6

TANZANIA

47 81 138 +91

NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223* UN Projections 2012

PROSPEROUS • Huge Potential of Africa• SA High Economic Competitiveness• Most sophisticated economy in Africa• Relatively declining importance of mineral

wealth

DYNAMIC Economic Nucleus of 250m in Southern Africa

HARD RIDERS : A TURBULENT MEDIUM TERM FUTURE

Motor Car

based Cities

Apartheid Cities

Low Productivi

ty

Huge Carbon

Footprint

FRACTURED CITIES

Gauteng Megalopolis

Townships

Poverty

Apartheid legacy

Poor Educatio

n & Health

Social Fragment

ation

THE TOWNSHIP THAT STAYEDFOR DINNER

High Unemploy

ment

Poor Labour

Relations

Grant Relieved Poverty

Low Skills

Growth Ceiling

FRACTURED WORKFORCE

Cheap Coal

Electricity

Cheap Labour

Minerals Export

Resource curse

Huge Carbon

Footprint

VULNERABLE MINERALS ENERGY COMPLEX

Big Government

Big Business

Big Trade Unions

Stifled Small

Business

STIFLING MONOPOLIES

YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION

1771 Industrial Revolution    1829 Start of Age of Steam

& Rail   

1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering

1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production

1905 Mining Economy + Union of South Africa

    1930 Resource Based Manufacturing

    1960 Republic of South Africa1971 Age of Information &

Telecommunications1971 Resource Based Services

Economy 2013  Midpoint of Age of

Information & Telecomms

1994 Democratic Elections

2020 Era of Turbulence  2020

 A Perfect Storm ?

2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

2030 An African Knowledge & Finance Capital ?

MID CENTURY

Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?

 2050

 A Wealthy African Region ?

A CORRIDOR IN TRANSITION

Corridor Transition

Period

World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response

1.Birth

1680 – 1840

Regional Wagon Route

Outspan at Hardekraaltjie

2. Urbanisation

1860 -1940

Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering

Hard Road & Railway Line

Country Villages & High Streets

3. City Integration

1940 – 1980

Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production

Commuter Rail / Bus Corridor Industrialisation

Satellite Towns & Corridor Emergence

4. Metro Sprawl

1980 – 2020

Age of Information & Telecommunications

N1 Regional Motor Corridor, Mini Bus Taxi

Corridor Decline

5. Metro Compaction

2020 – 2030

Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit, New Trains, Smart Transport Systems

Corridor Regeneration

6. Africanisation

2030 - 2040

Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?

Fast Rail, Smart Vehicles

Off Grid Satellite Towns

7. Regionalism

2040 +

Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?

Walking & Cycling

Urban Villages

CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE REGIONAL

PERSPECTIVE

BELLVILLE AT CORE OF 21ST CENTURY REGIONAL COMPLEX

Bio Silicon Valley of Africa

Regional Tourism & Services

Fast Rail connecting Airport, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Gauteng

Aerotropolis link to airport

BI – NODAL STRUCTURE OF CAPE TOWN’S URBAN CORE

Second Node

Balancing

Historic City Centre

CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE

Worst Case Scenario: Doubling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2040 will place massive carbon tax burden on growth

Urban Core is energy efficient, carbon efficient, adaptable, inclusive & sustainable alternative

INTEGRATING THE CAPE FLATS

Corridor anchors North South grid integration of Cape Flats

Second Node is connecting Hub for Symphony Way Corridor that links Khayelitsha to the Urban Core

CAPE TOWN SECOND CITY STRUCTURE PERSPECTIVE

Integrated Rapid Transit (2016) Modern Rail Fleet (2025)

CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE INNOVATION

PERSPECTIVE

CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE URBAN DESIGN

PERSPECTIVE

Bellville’s Star Shape Stretches Growth

Cape Town has Adaptable Grid to enable Cohesive Growth

STRADDLING RAILWAY LINE IS CRITICAL

COMPACT COHESIVE CITY CORE

WELL NETWORKED AND CONNECTED URBAN CAMPUS

CORRIDOR OPTIONS AND TYPOLOGIES

OPTION: HIGH VOLUME NEW WORLD

CITY CORRIDOR

OPTION: INFILL CORRIDOR

OPTION: GREEN SATELLITE CITIES

A step path into the future

CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040

URBAN ORGANISER

CID Operations

Integrated Transport Operations

Security Agency Capacity Building

CCTV

Safe Transport & Parking

Constructive Parks & Public Spaces

Problem Buildings

Clean & Safe CIDs

Great Events

Ubuntu Market

FROM AMBITION TO ACTION: TURNING POTENTIAL INTO PROSPERITY

CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040

URBAN ACUPUNTURE : 2013 - 2016

Urban Acupunture

Strategic Locations Key Intersections

Well Located Public land

Stations & Transport Interchanges

Catalytic Effect on Systems & Perceptions

Do-able within 18 months – 2 years

CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040

CATALYTIC PPP REVELOPMENT & UPGRADING: 2013 - 2016

LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING 2014 -2025

Nodal Precincts

Nodal Precinct Ha

Avail. Units

People Value

Wingfield + Transnet 321 200 40 000

160 000

R 12 Billion

Belcon 340 233 46 600186 400

R 14 Billion

Stikland Hospital 140 140 28 000

112 000

R 8.4 Billion

Tygerberg Hospital 75 75 15 000 60 000

R 4.5 Billion

  876 648129 600518 400

R 38.8 Billion

CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040

URBAN ACUPUNTUTE : 2013 - 2016

LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING: 2013 – 2020

CORRIDOR INTEGRATION 2016 -2040

NEW METRO NODE 2016 -2040

THANK YOU