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Growth PP - Aug 10

Apr 06, 2018

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  • 8/3/2019 Growth PP - Aug 10

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Title

    Wealth Management Services

    August 2010

    Portfolio Management Services

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    Domestic Consumption

    Indias economy is driven by domestic consumption. Indias private

    domestic consumption as a percentage of GDP is 57%*, as compared toChina which consumes only 37%* of its GDP.

    Rural India which constitutes 72%^ of the total population is insulatedfrom global shocks to a great extent as it still depends on agriculture andallied activities. Moreover services aimed at domestic market continue to

    do well due to a high pent up demand.

    A stable economy thrives on positive demographic profile leading to a mixof savings and consumption.

    India which ranks 164# in the world lagging behind countries such as

    Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, and Cuba in terms of per capita income will makesignificant progress in the years to come.

    *Global Insight: McKinsey Global Institute Analysis ^ Press Information Bureau # CIA World Fact Book

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    Favorable Demographic Profile

    India has a low median age of 25* years with 55%* of the population

    below the age of 35*.

    Indias working population has been growing at a healthy 2.1%*,

    compared to a 1.1%* growth in the US and a 0.5%* growth in the UK.

    Closer home, the proportion of working-age population in East Asiancountries will stabilize by 2015 and decline gradually.

    India, in contrast, is at an inflexion point as its working age population is

    expected to grow till 2035 before stabilizing for another 15 years.

    * UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs

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    India Growth Story has Just Begun

    A stable economy thrives on positive demographic profile leading to a mix

    of savings and consumption.

    India which has a median age of 25*, per capita income of USD 3100*

    (ranks 164* in the world in terms of per capita income) will make

    significant progress in the years to come.

    Indias savings rate has improved over the years to 36%* of GDP.

    Consumption growth will also accelerate as the young take center stage.

    India still lags behind hugely on all core infrastructure and consumption

    parameters.

    * CIA World Fact Book

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    Power Consumption (Per Capita kWh)

    12607

    2118

    487

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    5000

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    USA China India

    Power Consumption ( Per Capita kWh)

    Chinas per capita power consumption is 5x of India

    kWh kWh

    US per capita power consumption is 25x of India

    Source: Angel Research, US Geological Survey

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    Steel & Cement Consumption

    420 400328

    1000

    30

    150

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    Steel Consumption ( per capita kg) Cement Consumption ( per capita kg)

    USA China India

    (Kg)

    Source: Angel Research, World Steel Association

    Chinese per capita steel consumption is 10x of India

    Chinese per capita cement consumption is 6x of India

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    Car Penetration per 1000

    900

    20

    13

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    USA China India

    (Nos.) (Nos.)

    Source: Angel Research, Crisil

    US car penetration is 70x of India

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    Credit Under Penetration

    Source: Angel Research, World Bank

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    Market Cap Follows GDP Growth

    India will also witness strong growth in

    market capitalization

    US has seen good market capitalization

    with GDP growth

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

    USA Mcap/Gdp(x)

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1.0

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    1990 2000 2010P 2020P 2030P

    India Mcap/Gdp(x)

    Source: Angel Research, World BankSource: Angel Research

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    Why Invest in Midcaps?

    India ploughs back only 5%* of its domestic savings into the equity market

    every year. As interest rates head lower structurally, it is imperative thatequity would be become the preferred asset class in the next 10 to 15^years.

    It is also important to note that equity is already gaining acceptanceamong Indias working classes with each passing year.

    As equity gains prominence, a doubling of the domestic allocations to10%^ of savings in the next 5^ years (domestic allocations doubled duringthe previous 5 year period FY2004-09) would increase retail and HNIinflows by 3.5x^ into the equity market.

    When exposure to equities increases over a period of time, it has beenobserved that midcaps tend to create more wealth than large caps.

    * RBI ^ Angel Research

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    Midcap Investing Dynamics

    It is interesting to note that a large part of the change in stock prices (and

    indices) happen because of change in valuation multiples (P/E, P/BV)

    Re(De)-rating is a leading indicator for any expected change in the

    performance of a business.

    Midcaps are especially sensitive to changes in valuation metrics.

    After a strong battering in CY2008, midcaps recovered in CY2009 but many

    of them are still below their median valuations.

    Combining a strong earnings growth in the medium term, a lot of wealth

    can be created in the right midcaps.

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    P/E Analysis- CNX Midcap v/s SENSEX

    P/E (x)

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Apr-04

    Sep-04

    Feb-05

    Jul-05

    Dec-05

    May-06

    Oct-06

    Mar-07

    Aug-07

    Jan-08

    Jun-08

    Nov-08

    Apr-09

    Sep-09

    Feb-10

    Jul-10

    CNX MIDCAP (LHS) SENSEX (RHS)Source: NSE India, Capitaline, Bloomberg, Angel Research

    P/E (x)

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    Rs 1 Lac invested in Mar -03 would have amounted to more than Rs 49 Lac in Mar -10

    Wealth Creation in Midcaps -

    Praj Industries

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    FY03 FY10

    - Stock returns: 49x

    - Institutional Holding up from 15% to 28%

    - Sensex P/E expanded from 11.2x to 19.5x

    - Discount to Sensex in FY03: 4%

    PAT(R

    s.Cr)

    Source: BSE India, Capitaline, Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    Wealth Creation in Midcaps -

    Havells India

    Rs 1 Lac invested in Mar -03 would have amounted to more than Rs 58 Lac in Mar -10

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    250

    FY03 FY10

    - Stock returns :58x

    - Institutional Holding up from 2.5% to 37%

    - Sensex P/E expanded from 11.2x to 19.5x

    - Discount to Sensex in FY03: 34%

    PAT(Rs

    .Cr)

    Source: BSE India, Capitaline, Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    Wealth Creation in Midcaps -

    Elecon Engineering

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    FY03 FY10

    - Stock returns: 101x

    - Institutional Holding upfrom 6.5% to 16%

    - Sensex P/E expanded from 11.2x to 19.5x

    - Discount to Sensex in FY03 : 69%

    PAT(Rs.Cr)

    Rs 1 Lac invested in Mar -03 would have amounted to more than Rs 101 Lac in Mar -10

    Source: BSE India, Capitaline, Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    Wealth Creation in Midcaps -

    Shriram Transport Finance

    Rs 1 Lac invested in Mar -03 would have amounted to more than Rs 230 Lac in Mar -10

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    FY03 FY10

    - Stock returns: 230x

    - Institutional Holding up from 2.5% to 37%

    - Sensex P/E expanded from 11.2x to 19.5x

    - Discount to Sensex in FY03: 78%

    PAT(R

    s.Cr)

    Source: BSE India, Capitaline, Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Midcap Investing

    Midcap investing presents a daunting challenge of assessing the

    qualitative and quantitative aspects of a business to decide the right

    value.

    A good stock bought at expensive valuation may lead to

    underperformance while investing in a bad business at any level may lead

    to a capital loss.

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    Angel Growth Strategy

    Combines the best of Value & Growth investing.

    Value forms the bedrock of all investments.

    Growth in core business is essential for an investment to be a part of the

    portfolio.

    Growth is viewed through the prism of value.

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    Investment Objective

    To create Wealth over the medium to long term by investing in mid

    caps and small caps blending the philosophy of Value and Growth

    investing.

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    Investment Strategy

    Growth is viewed through the prism of value. A unique matrix of

    Profitability (RoNW), Growth prospects, and Value proposition employed

    to chose 12 to 14 Companies among thousands of listed stocks.

    Portfolio Profitability (RoNW) Growth Value

    Angel Growth Weighted average RoNW

    of the portfolio to be at

    least equal to that of

    Sensex Companies* on12 to 18 month forward

    estimates

    Weighted average

    Growth prospects of

    the portfolio to be at

    least equal to that ofSensex Companies* on

    12 to 18 month

    forward estimates

    Weighted average

    P/E or P/BV (which

    ever is applicable) of

    the portfolio to be atleast 25% lower to

    that of Sensex

    Companies *on 12

    to 18 month forward

    estimates

    Profitability- Growth- Value Matrix

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    Investment Strategy

    Turn around stories are also considered with in the framework of the

    Profitability- Growth- Value matrix. For instance:

    Tech Mahindras profits have been impacted due to the debt taken on its books for the

    acquisition of Satyam Computers. It paid an interest of Rs 218 Crore in FY10 compared to

    Rs 2.5 Crore in FY09. Interest adjusted for taxes accounted for almost 26% of its profits of

    Rs 700 Crore in FY10. Tech Mahindra generates a free cash in excess of Rs 800 Crore per

    annum and at that rate it can retire its debt of approximately 1400 Crore in 2 years leading

    to a huge jump in profits.

    Businesses that generate inferior Return on Networth (RoNW) as

    compared to the Sensex Companies* over longer periods of time (3 to 5

    years) are not considered for investment.

    *Note: Although our performance benchmark is BSE Midcap, we intend to invest in Midcaps and Small-caps

    whose business fundamentals are in line or better than the Sensex Companies who happen to be the leaders in

    their respective industries .

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Active portfolio management ensures periodic profit booking while

    infusion of fresh ideas keeps the portfolio current with the macro-

    economic conditions.

    Emphasis on Wealth creation. Endeavor to leverage the power of

    compounding to grow the portfolio. Ensure that unnecessary churning isavoided in the portfolio to reduce the financial costs to the client.

    Stock selection based on Fundamental Analysis.

    Investment Strategy

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Angel Growth- Sector Allocation

    * As on 31stJuly 2010

    Banking & Financial

    Services, 19.7%

    FMCG, 10.0%

    Infrastructure, 19.5%IT & ITES, 28.1%

    Auto Ancillaries, 0.8%

    Shipping, 6.6%

    Tyres, 9.1%

    Cash, 6.2%

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    Angel Growth- Top 5 Holdings

    Company Weightage Sector

    Heritage Foods 10.0% FMCG

    Jyoti Structures 10.1% Infrastructure

    Punj Lloyd 9.4% Infrastructure

    3i Infotech 9.3% IT & ITES

    JK Tyres & Industries 9.1% Tyres

    * As on 31stJuly 2010

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Angel Growth- Performance

    * As on 31stJuly 2010 ^ Annualized/Compounded returns

    3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Years^ Since Inception^( 08 August 2007)

    Angel Growth - 6.1% - 2.9% 26.5% 36.6% 17.8%

    BSE Midcap 3.1% 11.8% 41.5% 15.4% 3.6%

    Note: The above indicated Strategy returns are absolute (except where it is indicated^) in nature and are

    calculated on the Time Weighted Rate of Returns (TWR) methodology. Returns of individual clients may vary

    depending on their time of entry/profit booking in the Strategy. Past performance may not be indicative of the

    future returns delivered by the Portfolio Manager.

    Fund Manager: P.Phani Sekhar

    Experience: Equity Research (Indian Markets, US Markets), PortfolioManagement (multiple Portfolios) at Angel Broking since inception of PMS.

    Education: BE (Mechanical Engg.), MBA (Finance)

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Service Proposition

    Online Access to Portfolio Login Id & Password

    Interactive back office interface for detailed view of portfolio

    Monthly fund performance and fund manager views on e-mails

    Quarterly performance report statement in a new form

    Dedicated fund coordinator for fund related queries

    Centralized team of service coordinators for hassle free servicing

    Event based interaction with fund management team

    Servicing from large network of branches across India

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Fee Structure & Other Details

    Nature of Fees Fee

    One Time upfront Fee / Processing Fee NilFixed Management Fees (on Assets under Management) per annum 2%*

    Exit Load Nil

    Custodian Fees Nil

    Depository Charges As Applicable

    Registrar & Transfer Fees Nil

    Service Tax, Security Transaction Tax & Other Statutory levies As Applicable

    Brokerage 0.5% per Transaction

    *In the case of redemption with in the first year, a fixed management fee of 2% will be levied on the

    assets under management.

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    Investment Dynamics

    Investment horizon: 18 to 24 months

    Risk: Moderate

    Return: Moderate

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    Portfolio Management ServicesPMS Registration No.INP000001546

    DISCLAIMER: Investments in Securities are subject to market risks and other related risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that

    the objectives of any of the strategies of the Portfolio Management.

    As a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager Angel Broking Ltd provides Portfolio Management Services to clients and at no point of time

    assure guaranteed returns. Past Performance of schemes do not guarantee/indicate future performance.

    This document has been prepared by Angel Broking Ltd. based upon information available to the public and sources including

    newspapers and information available on various financial web-portals and other media which are generally believed to be reliable. No

    representation or warranty, express or implied is made by Angel Broking Ltd with regard to the accuracy, correctness and completeness

    of the contents.

    The information contained herein does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any

    securities or other financial instruments nor does the information constitute advice or an expression of our view as to whether a

    particular security or financial instrument is appropriate. The recipient is requested to make itself aware of all the risk factors including

    its financial condition, suitability to risk return profile, e.t.c and read and understand the Risk Disclosure Document prior to availing

    Portfolio Management Services

    This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished solely for information and must not be reproduced or

    redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.

    No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed.

    This material should not be circulated in countries where restrictions exist on soliciting business from potential clients residing in such

    countries. Recipients of this material should be aware of any restrictions imposed on them w.r.t possession of such documents. AngelBroking Ltd stands indemnified from any disputes/issues that may arise on account of failure on this part by the recipient.

    SEBI Registration No : INB 010996539

    Website: www.angeltrade.com

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