Illinois Job Index Release 09/30/2014 Data Jan 1990 / Aug 2014 Issue 2014.9 www.real.illinois.edu Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014. For August Illinois Job Index, Illinois and the nation had positive job growth while RMW declined. The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois. Sep 2014 Positive July 2014–Aug 2014 Last 12 months Aug 2014 Total non- farm employment Growth Rate % Number of Jobs Growt h Rate% Number of Jobs Shadow U.R.* Nation 0.10 142,00 0 1.82 2,482,0 00 11.50% RMW -0.03 -5,400 1.13 219,400 12.42% Illinois 0.24 13,800 0.70 40,600 11.57% *REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004. Talking Points Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 1
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Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For August Illinois Job Index, Illinois and the nation had positive job growth while RMW declined.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Sep 2014
Positive
July 2014–Aug 2014 Last 12 months Aug 2014Total non-farm employment
Growth Rate %
Number of Jobs
Growth Rate%
Number of Jobs
Shadow U.R.*
Nation 0.10 142,000 1.82 2,482,000 11.50%
RMW -0.03 -5,400 1.13 219,400 12.42%
Illinois 0.24 13,800 0.70 40,600 11.57%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
IllinoisNotes
Illinois gained 13,800 jobs in August 2014, compared with a 9,400 job gain in July 2014. Compared to August 2013, Illinois has added 40,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 10,100 jobs per month.
The Nation added 142,000 jobs at a rate of 0.10%, compared with a 212,000 job gain in July 2014. The three-month moving average was up by 207,000 jobs per month.
The RMW shed 5,400 jobs in August after a 24,700 job gain in July 2014. The three-month moving average was up by 22,100 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37 times and positive job gains 42 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 150,500 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 252,500 new jobs.
By August 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.57%, 12.42% and 11.50%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.7%, 6.1% and 6.1%.
Through August 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 10.80%, 14.87%, and 27.42%, respectively.
NationNotes
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 142,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business services, Educational & Health Services and Construction had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 768,000 additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.16% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 1
Illinois Job IndexRelease09/30/2014
DataJan 1990 / Aug 2014
Issue2014.9 www.real.illinois.edu
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – August 2014
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment IndexAugust 2014
Number of JobsCurrent
Index to Jan 1990Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990
Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation 139,118,000 127.42 126.57 (Dec-2007)
29,935,000 768,000RMW 19,631,700 114.87 119.44 (Jun-2000) 2,540,600 -771,700Illinois 5,837,400 110.80 115.08 (Nov-
2000)569,100 -219,500
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Sep 2013 – Aug 2014
-0.40%
-0.30%
-0.20%
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%Sep/13 Oct/13 Nov/13 Dec/13 Jan/14 Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14
Nation RMW IL
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 2
* The figure 635,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 168,900, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 635,000.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 252,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through August 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 3
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
To RecoverGrowth Rate
At the point of 2014- August
At the point of 2010-June
In 5 years 76,500 jobs/year 121,000 jobs/year
In 8 years 47,800 jobs/year 75,600 jobs/year
In 10 years 38,300 jobs/year 60,500 jobs/year
In 15 years 25,600 jobs/year 40,300 jobs/year
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, July 2014 – August 2014
-1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50%
90 Government
80 Other Services
70 Leisure & hospitality
65 Education & health
60 Professional & business services
55 Financial activities
50 Information
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
30 Manufacturing
20 Construction
Nation RMW IL
Sector notes
Illinois posted positive change in August 2014 by adding 13,800 jobs. Six out of ten sectors recorded net gains. Compared to July 2014, Leisure & hospitality (-0.35% to 0.92%) had a major performance gain while Other Services (-0.24% to -0.72%) had a major performance loss. Government (-0.11% to 0.10%), Information (-0.21% to -0.10%) and Trade, transportation & utilities (0.13% to 0.37%) also experienced net performance gain, while Education & health (0.09% to -0.19%), Professional & business services (0.56% to 0.37%), Manufacturing (0.49% to 0.37%), Financial activities (0.14% to -0.08%) and Construction (1.16% to 1.15%) experienced net loss in performance.
In August at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:o Professional & business services: 47,000 (0.24%)o Construction: 20,000 (0.33%)o Education & health: 37,000 (0.17%)
The sector that lost jobs in August at the national level waso . Information: -3,000 (-0.11%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in August were:o Professional & business Services: 3,300 (0.37%)o Trade, transportation & utilities: 4,300 (0.37%)o Leisure & hospitality: 5,000 (0.92%)
Following are the three sectors that lost jobs in August for Illinois:o Education & health: -1,700 (-0.19%)o Other Services: -1,800 (-0.72%)o Information:-100 (-0.10%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 349,000 jobs, Construction is down 28,100 jobs, Information down 33,200 jobs and Financial activities has 3,800 fewer jobs.
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – August 2014Illinois RMW Nation
vs. RMW
vs.
Number of Jobs Rate %
Rate Rate
Nation % %Construction - - -28,100 -12.20 5.89 11.91
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 4
Manufacturing - - -349,000 -37.84 -25.41 -31.68
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) - - 20,300 1.77 4.88 16.33
Information - - -33,200 -25.48 -16.98 -0.11
Financial activities - - -3,800 -1.02 14.54 20.91
Professional & business services - - 329,100 57.53 69.84 79.09
Education & health - - 353,600 66.83 68.77 99.84
Leisure & hospitality + - 166,300 43.32 33.92 57.71
Other Services - - 43,700 21.25 21.84 30.66
Government - - 79,100 10.47 11.69 20.64
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – August 2014
Job Changes in Recession Period*
Job Changes in Jan 2010-Aug
2014Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-
Aug 2015Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction -63,800 -1,600 -2.51% 9,900 15.52%Manufacturing -114,500 18,400 16.07% 19,800 17.29%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) -97,100 47,400 48.82% 60,900 62.72%
Information -11,300 -7,300 -64.60% -7,800 -69.03%Financial activities -32,700 3,800 11.62% 7,500 22.94%Professional & business services -92,700 120,200 129.67% 137,600 148.44%Education & health 32,200 61,200 - 82,000 -Leisure & hospitality -22,300 38,300 171.75% 47,100 211.21%Other services -6,300 -6,700 -113.56% -5,400 -91.53%Government 5,600 -21,900 - -15,100 -*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
Recovery by Sector
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 16.07%, 48.82%, 11.62%, 129.67% and 171.75% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By August 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other Services are still negative, namely, -2.51%, -64.60% and -113.56% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Information is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
Construction July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014%
ChangeNumber of
Jobs
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 5
Illinois 1.15 2,300
RMW -0.54 -4,000
Nation 0.33 20,000
Manufacturing July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
%Change
Number of Jobs
Illinois 0.37 2,100
RMW -0.04 -1,200
Nation 0 0
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
%Change
Number of Jobs
Illinois 0.37 4,300
RMW -0.23 -8,500
Nation 0.00 1,000
Information July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014%
ChangeNumber of
Jobs
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 6
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
Illinois -0.10 -100
RMW -0.61 -1,800
Nation -0.19 -5,000
Financial activities July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
%Change
Number of Jobs
Illinois -0.08 -300
RMW -0.18 -1,900
Nation 0.09 7,000
Professional & business services July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
190.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
%Change
Number of Jobs
Illinois 0.24 3,300
RMW 0.13 3,100
Nation 0.37 47,000
Education & health July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014%
ChangeNumber of
Jobs
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 7
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
Illinois -0.19 -1,700
RMW -0.30 -9,300
Nation 0.17 37,000
Leisure & hospitality July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
%Change
Number of Jobs
Illinois 0.10 5,000
RMW -0.28 -5,400
Nation 0.92 15,000
Other Services July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
135.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
%Change
Number of Jobs
Illinois -0.72 -1,800
RMW 0.16 1,300
Nation 0.15 8,000
Government July 2014 – Aug 2014 July 2014 – Aug 2014%
ChangeNumber of
Jobs
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 8
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
National RMW IL
Illinois 0.10 800
RMW 0.76 22,800
Nation 0.04 8,000
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index release 9/30/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 9
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