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Great Disappointment or Sustained Recovery?
Economic Trends and Outlook
Michael J. Parks, editor emeritus
Marple's Northwest Business Lettermichaeljparks.com marples.com
Copyright © 2011 Michael J. Parks; please don’t reproduce without permission
Washington StateSelf Storage Association
May 20, 2011
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Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
The Zurich Axioms
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Key Washington plusses
Boeing backlog; up part of the cycle.
Export orientation/weak dollar.
Strong/broad portfolio in high technology
(software, biotechnology/medical, entertainment,
communications, the cloud).
Above-average population growth.
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Boeing backlog by model
747109 767
53
777286
787835
Through March 2011 Data: Boeing
7372,162
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Duration of backlogYears to deliver backlog at current production rates
4.0
4.4
5.8
6.8
7.0787 (20 per month*)
Through March 2011 *Parks: 'guesstimate'
747 (1.25 per month*)
737 (31 per month)
777 (6 per month)
767 (1 per month*)
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 '11
Washington aerospace employment
Washington Employment Security Department
S
S
S
S=strike
Thousands
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$4,871
$5,178
$6,577
$7,261
$7,781
Exports per person
Data: WISERTrade (for 2009)
Washington
Delaware
Vermont
Texas
Louisiana
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Trade-weighted value of the dollar
90
100
110
120
1/3/06 9/19/06 6/7/07 2/22/08 11/6/08 7/27/09 4/16/10 1/5/11
Stock-market trough
Lehman bankruptcy
Euro crisis
Index: Jan '97=100
Data: Federal Reserve System
QE2
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Trade-weighted value of the dollar
86
90
94
98
102
5/13 6/4 6/25 7/19 8/9 8/30 9/2110/13 11/311/2612/17 1/11 2/2 2/24 3/17 4/7 4/28
Index: Jan 2010-=100
Data: Federal Reserve System
20112010
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10
20
30
40
50
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11
Compound annual growth since 1990 10.2%
Washington Employment Security Department
ThousandsWashington software employment
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Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10
Washington 114.1Oregon 112.4United States 109.5
Index: July 2000 = 100
Population growth to July 2010
Data: Census Bureau, February 2011
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166.5
128.4
120
140
160
180
2007 08 09 10 11
Magnet Washington
Washington Department of Licensing
Washington driver's licenses issued to out-of-staters(thousands, 12 month moving sum)
Leading states:CaliforniaOregonTexas
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Perspective on the times
Not so fast!
Just a little off the top.
Many happy returns.
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Key takeawaysThe financial crisis changed everything.
A new, vastly different, era has begun.
High oil prices and the threat of inflation
elevate risk of recession or “stagflation.”
Washington, helped by technology, weak $
and Boeing’s backlog, should outperform.
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Key takeaways (continued)
Two-speed global recovery. Developing/
emerging fast, advanced economies slow.
U.S. recovery has reached Wall Street,
banking, corporations. Not Main Street.
Policy uncertainty – health care, energy,
taxes – keeps corporations hoarding cash.
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Lean on meOld-age dependency ratios (ages 15-64/65+)
6.35.2
3.0
9.8
2.8
1.3
1970 2010 2050 1970 2010 2050
United States Japan
Data: United Nations
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Normal, old and new
• Globalization
• Laissez faire banking
• Debt-led consumption
• Shrinking role for govt
• Worry about deflation
• US GDP growth > 3%
• Modest tax burden
• Protectionism
• Banking reregulation
• Fear-based savings
• Larger government role
• High risk of inflation
• US GDP growth ~ 2%
• Higher tax burden
Mohamed El-Erian, Bill Gross, PIMCO, Spring 2009
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Two-speed recoveryChange in real output from same quarter year ago
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Emerging economies
Advanced economies
Data: International Monetary Fund
Forecast
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What recession?Inflation-adjusted GDP 2005-'12 (2005=100)
China 204
Brazil 138
India 176
US 111
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Data: International Monetary Fund
Forecast
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Real U.S. gross domestic productPer cent change from prior quarter at annual rate
1.8
-6.8-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Forecast
Bureau of Economic Analysis.Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
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-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
2008 2009 2010 11
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Change from prior month (thousands)
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128
130
132
134
136
138
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment
Data: Bureau of Labor Statisticsmillion
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4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2008 2009 2010 11
U.S. unemployment rates
Headline rate: 9.0%
Broad definition: Involuntary part-time'marginally attached,' etc.: 15.9%
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics
%
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70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
U.S. payroll employment
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total
Index: January 2001 = 100
Goods producing
Goods-producing:manufacturing,construction,mining
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Key U.S. interest rates
2
4
6
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
10-year Treasury note Federal funds
Data: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
%
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May 10Jun
JulyAug
SepOct
NovDec
Jan 11Feb
MarApr
May
2.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.8
10-year Treasury note yield
Per cent
Data: Federal Reserve System
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01/05 07/05 01/06 07/06 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
U.S. housing startsthousands
Data: Census Bureau
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00 02 04 06 08 10 110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
U.S. housing starts
thousands
Data: Census Bureau
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It can't go onGovernment spending as % of GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
1870 1913 1920 1937 1960 1980 1990 2000 2005 2009
United States
Average*
*Advanced economies. Data: The Economist
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Why PIMCO dumped Treasuries
Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security = 44% of federal spending; rising steadily.
We have relied on the assumption that we can grow our way out of the resulting debt.
Unless entitlements are reformed, the U.S. will likely default -- via inflation, currency devaluation, and/or low returns to savers.
Bill Gross, Pacific Investment Management Co. April 2011
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Recessions and the Evergreen StatePer cent employment change following U.S. economic peaks
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of MinneapolisMonths
1969-70 (11 months)
Will the last person leaving SEATTLE - Turn out the lights (1971)
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Recessions and the Evergreen State
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Months
1969-70 (11 months)
1981-82 (16 months)
Per cent employment change following U.S. economic peaks
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Recessions and the Evergreen State
Per cent employment change following U.S. economic peaks
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Months
1969-70 (11 months)
1981-82 (16 months)
Great Recession 2008-09 (18 months)
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Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
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Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
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2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 2011
Washington nonfarm payroll employmentJan 00-Apr 11
Thousands
Washington Employment Security Department
Apr 11:Y/Y +1.5%
from peak -5.1%from GR start -4.8%
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-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2007 08 09 10 11
Washington payroll employment
Data: Washington Employment Security Department
Change from prior month (thousands)
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-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Washington nonfarm payroll employmentPer cent change
Forecast
Data: Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
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390
410
430
450
470
490
510
1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2010 2011
Washington goods-producing employment
Washington Employment Security Department
Thousands
ManufacturingConstructionMining
-18%
+17%
+2%-21%
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120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
Washington construction employment
Washington Employment Security Department
Thousands
-34%
+40%
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Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
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Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
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1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 2000 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '11
Washington service-producing employment
Washington Employment Security Department
Thousands
Aug 08-Mar 11-68.8, -2.8%
GovernmentTrade, transportation and utilitiesEducation and health servicesProfessional and business servicesLeisure and hospitalityFinancial activitiesOther servicesInformation
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Washington service-related employment
Trade, transportation & utilities
Government
Education and health services
Washington Employment Security Department
Professional and business services
Leisure and hospitality
Thousands
Financial
Other
Information
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40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2008 2010
S&P/Case Shiller home-price indices
Index: Jan 2006=100
Seattle 82
Data: Standard & Poor's
Los Angeles 64
Las Vegas 43
Monthly 2006 through Jan 11
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Basic 2011 forecast:Partly cloudy, but fairer weather. Washington will outperform thanks to Boeing backlog, strong exports, in-migration, weak $, high-tech portfolio
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What to monitor in ’11: U.S.-China relations Value of the dollar Sovereign risk Interest rates Global growth rate
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Not your father's global economyPer cent share of global output, ppp* basis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Emerging/developing economies
Advanced economies
Data: International Monetary Fund
Forecast
*Purchasing Power Parity
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Share of global outputPer cent based on purchasing-power parity (PPP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
United States
China
Data: International Monetary Fund
Forecast