GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS OF CHINA POLS 442/SISEA 449

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GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS OF CHINA POLS 442/SISEA 449Susan Whiting, Ph.D.Associate Professor, University of Washington, Seattle

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Studying the Chinese case

How can comparative theory help us understand China better?

What does China tell us about important comparative theoretical questions?

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The Chinese case in comparative context

Theoretical puzzles Authoritarian resilience Political institutions and economic growth

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Theoretical puzzle 1

How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? Challenge to modernization theory

Economic development, education, urbanization, emergence of middle class

associated with democratization

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?Political institutions matter:Regime type Percent surviving as of 1998*

Military 11

Personalistic 16

Single party 50

*regimes existing or formed since 1946

Source: Barbara Geddes, “What Do We Know About Democratization?”

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? Political institutions

In single-party regimes Allow participation and popular influence

without giving up party’s dominant role in the political system

This course part 2

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? How big a threat is factionalism to the CCP regime? China perspective:

Ousted Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? How big a threat is factionalism to the

CCP regime? Comparative theory:

In single-party regimes, factions

strong incentives to cooperate in order to maintain power

less threatening to regime stability than in other types of authoritarian regimes

This course part 1

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? How big a threat is factionalism to the CCP regime? China perspective:

Ousted Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai

Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to investigate and warned that if political reforms were not implemented, China risked a new Cultural Revolution.

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? How big a threat is factionalism to the

CCP regime? Political history matters:

How did factional politics play out during the Cultural Revolution, 1966-1976?

This course part 1

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents

What is democratic PercentLegitimacy? Responding

Procedural 25Substantive* 14Mixed 5Incoherent 15Don’t know 42

*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” ( 民本 )

Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents

What is democratic PercentLegitimacy? Responding

Procedural 25 potential challenge to regimeSubstantive* 14Mixed 5Incoherent 15Don’t know 42

*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” ( 民本 )

Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power? Political beliefs and political history matter

Confucian notion of minben “Rulership should be entrusted to those with

superior knowledge and virtue” Legitimacy is defined by substance: how well the

regime performs and cares for its people “Ordinary citizens have the right to participate

only under extreme conditions—if a rule loses the “Mandate of Heaven”

This course Part 1

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents

What is democratic PercentLegitimacy? Responding

Procedural 25Substantive* 14 potential support for regimeMixed 5Incoherent 15Don’t know 42

*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” ( 民本 )

Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

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Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC

residents

What is democratic PercentLegitimacy? Responding

Procedural 25Substantive* 14 Mixed 5Incoherent 15Don’t know 42 not threatening for regime

*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” ( 民本 )

Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

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Course logistics

Syllabus and website