Gloream workshop, Paris 2006 Setting of an experimental forecast system for air quality at ECMWF in the framework of the GEMS project : implementation and first results Forêt (1),(2) G., Monge (2) J-.L., Menut (2) L., Vautard (3) R., Beekmann (1) M. (1) Laboratoire Inter-universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA) (2) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
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Gloream workshop, Paris 2006 Setting of an experimental forecast system for air quality at ECMWF in the framework of the GEMS project : implementation.
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Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Setting of an experimental forecast system for air quality at ECMWF in the framework of the GEMS project :
implementation and first results
Forêt(1),(2) G., Monge(2) J-.L., Menut(2) L., Vautard(3) R., Beekmann(1) M.
(1) Laboratoire Inter-universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA)(2) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)
Context of this work
▪ 3D Chemical Transport Model are now used to assess air pollution from global to urban scales… nevertheless large uncertainties remains: external forcings : emissions, meteorology, chemical boundary conditions representation of dynamics : pollutants dispersion representations of chemical and physical mecanisms (gases and aerosols) numerical representation
▪ Great Potential for increasing CTM performances :
increasing number of teams working on AQ modelling increasing computing capacity multiplication of observations (satellites)
Synergetical approach via integrated projects : GEMS, PROMOTE
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
A common will to ameliorate air quality modelling : The GEMS project
Purpose of GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satelliteand in-situ data) :
● Global Monitoring system for Greenhouse Gases (GHG)● Global Monitoring system for Reactive Gases (GRG)● Global Monitoring system for Aerosols (AER)● Regional Air-Quality Monitoring and Forecasting (RAQ)
Create a new European system for operationnal global monitoring of Atmospheric chemistry and to produce improved medium-range & short range air-chemistry forecasts.
GEMS sub-projects :
The GEMS RAQ sub project
▪ Provide, Evaluate NRT forecasts (gases and aerosols) at continental to regional scale, relying on global and regional assimilated fields
▪ Improve existing continental to regional scales air quality models, statistical post-treatment, and explore multi-model ensemble approaches
▪ Use of satellite information for air quality prognoses▪ Impact of the global change on regional air quality▪ European cooperation for data access, skill evaluation and forecasts comparisons▪ Evaluate health impact of air quality and produce dedicated products
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Objectives :
Several AQ model used for sensivity studies and cross-comparison exercices Recommandation for future RAQ modelling systems
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
The CHIMERE-GEMS system (1/2)
Starting model version based on the operationnal PREV’AIR platform :(www.prevair.ineris.fr)
Devellopment of a new experimental forecast system based at ECMWF
Simulation period : July/August 2006
Number of stations :~ 200 stations(urban+rural+peri-urban)
Skill scores of the forecasts for daily peaks values (µg.m3)
Bias -1.1 -7.0Cor 0.89 0.89Rms 17.1 18.4
GFS IFS
What’s new ? New parallel version of CHIMERE is used The whole system is running remotely on ECMWF’s calculator (HPCD)
IFS (ECMWF) (0.5°x 0.5°)
CHIMERE-GEMS(parallel version)
120 h IFS forecast available
Timing (D-1) 6h30 pm (UT) (D-1) 9 pm (UT)
Beginning of the CHIMERE run on hpcd
(D-1) 9h45 pm (UT)
Chemical forecasts areAvailable (Day + 3)
Experimental forecast for summer 2006 at ECMWF
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Simulated surface ozone peaks for the 2006/07/26
NCEP/MM5/CHIMERE ECMWF/CHIMERE-GEMS
Gloream workshop, Paris 2006
Future works
Identifying main differences for the 2 differents meteorological forcings
increasing horizontal resolution of the model (parallel version)
Tests with the new TNO emission cadaster Sensivity tests to chemical boundary conditions forcings : differences between monthly global climatology and global chemical forecasts currently in test with LMDZ-INCA chemical forecasts
+ Implementation of the new model version : (spring 2007 ???) enhanced aerosol modules deep convection free-tropospheric version coupling with chimere-dust version better dust forcing …