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ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF
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ECMWF Status Report

Jan 16, 2016

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ECMWF Status Report. Stephen English ECMWF. Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring Research topics related to satellite observations. Overview:. Main areas of activity at ECMWF. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Page 1: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

ECMWF Status Report

Stephen English

ECMWF

Page 2: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities

Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring

Research topics related to satellite observations

Overview:

Page 3: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Numerical Weather

Prediction (NWP)

Historical reanalysis for

climate research

Environmentalmonitoring and

modelling

Main areas of activity at ECMWF

Page 4: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Numerical Weather

Prediction (NWP)

HIRES + ENS Monthly Seasonal

Page 5: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Environmentalmonitoring and

modelling

Estimating greenhouse gas concentration and

flux inversion

Monitoring and forecasting trajectory

of dust events

Monitoring and forecasting trajectory

of volcanic events

Page 6: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Re-analysis for climate

research

Trend analysis of climate parameters

Improved climatology for process studies

Cleansed historical observation data sets

Page 7: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Operational NWP

Page 8: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

The forecast model

Page 9: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Grid structure of the Global operational NWP forecast model: (time step = 10mins)

91 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)

T1279 spectral resolution(~16km grid point spacing)

0 10 20 30Pressure layer thickness [hPa]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Pre

ssure

[hP

a]

L91L137

137 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)

Page 10: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

~210km ~125km ~63km ~39km ~25km ~16km

Evolution of ECMWF forecast skill

Page 11: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

The Assimilation System

Page 12: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

])H[(])H[(

)()()(1

1

xyxy

xxxxxJT

bT

b

R

B

Operational 4D-Var Algorithm

Page 13: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Operational 4D-Var Algorithm

)()(

)()(

])H[(])H[(

)()()(

1

1

1

1

bT

b

bT

b

T

bT

b

xyxy

xxxxxJ

B

B

R

B

VARBC term to correct observation bias

Weak constraint term to correct model bias

Flow dependent errors from EDA system

Page 14: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Overview of data usage

Page 15: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Ground based / launched observations

Page 16: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Overview of data usageSYNOP/SHIP/METAR:Meteorological/aeronautical land surface weather stations (2m-temperature, dew-point temperature, 10m-wind)

BUOYS:Moored buoys (TAO, PIRATA)Drifters

TEMP/TEMPSHIP/DROPSONDES:RadiosondesASAPs (commercial ships replacing stationary weather ships)Dropsondes released from aircrafts (NOAA, Met Office, tropical cyclones, experimental field campaigns, e.g., FASTEX, NORPEX)

PROFILERS:UHF/VHF Doppler radars (Europe, US, Japan)

Aircraft:AIREPS (manual reports from pilots)AMDARs, ACARs, etc. (automated readings)

Now within VarBC!

Page 17: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Satellite Observations

Page 18: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Overview of data usage

Page 19: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Overview of data usageLevel-1 radiances Level-2 products Level-1.5 products

AMSU-A, ATMS, MHS, MWTS, MWHS, HIRS,

IASI, AIRS, CrIS, SEVIRI, MTSAT,

GOES, SSMIS, TMI, SMOS, WindSat

GRAS, GRACE, CNOFS, COSMIC, TERRASAR-X, ASCAT, OSCAT

Level-2* products

SST / SNOW / ICE

CloudSat, Calipso

Research

Page 20: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Radiances AMSU-A on NOAA-15/18/19, AQUA, Metop-A+B, ATMS on Suomi-NPP (from Sept 2012)AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-19, Metop-A+BSSMIS on F-17, TMI on TRMM, Windsat on CoriolisHIRS on NOAA-17/19, Metop-AAIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop-A, CrIS on Suomi-NPPMVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2 imagersSMOS imager

Bending angles COSMIC-1, GRAS on Metop, GRACE-A, Terrasar-X, CNOFS

Ozone SBUV on NOAA-17/18, OMI on Aura, AIRS, IASI, HIRS

Atmospheric Motion Vectors Meteosat-7/9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2, MODIS on Terra/Aqua. FY2

Sea surface parameters Near-surface wind speed from ASCAT on Metop-A, OSCAT on OceanSatSignificant wave height from Jason altimeters

Overview of data usage

Page 21: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/

Page 22: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/

Page 23: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

Page 24: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Out of threshold anomalies trigger alerts on web site and launch emails to key personnel prompting action

Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

24

Page 25: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

New instruments: FY3 and Suomi-NPPCrIS 14µm

ATMS Ch.9 MWHS Ch.4

MWTS Ch.3

Page 26: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

R+D activities relevant to NAEDEX

Page 27: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 27

1. Hyperspectral IR(McNally/Matricardi/Eresmaa)

• New sensors: CrIS• Principal component assimilation• Improved cloud screening• Use of SW and O3 channels

Page 28: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 28

2. Microwave sounders(Bell/Lu/DiTomaso/Eresmaa/Bormann/English)

• Characterisation of bandpass drift in existing sensors• Improved microwave surface emissivity• New sensors: ATMS, FY3• Observation errors

Page 29: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 29

3. Microwave Imagers(Bell/Geer/Baordo/English)

• All sky assimilation including AMSU-A channel 4

Page 30: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

4. Satellite winds and Geo radiances (Hernandez/Bormann/Salonen/Lupu)

• AMV error model and understanding • AMV QC• All sky Geo Radiances• Observing model error growth with Geo radiances

Page 31: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 31

EDA analysis spread for temperature at 100 hPa

Tropics

N. HemS. Hem

5. GPSRO(Healy/Harnisch)

• Tangent point drift• EDA experiments: sensitivity to number of observations• Surface pressure• Contributions to ROM SAF (ROPP)

Page 32: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

mg/

kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

mg/

kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

Ops, 2010 - 2011Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2011 - 2012Ops, 2011 - 2012

+IR/O3

+MIPAS

No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012SBUVSBUV(21)(21), 2011 – 2012, 2011 – 2012

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

mg/

kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5m

g/kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

6. Ozone(Dragani)

+SBUV21

Page 33: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

7. Radar and lidar(Janiskova/DiMichele/Martins)

• Preparing for EarthCARE using CloudSat and Calipso• Testing forward operator and adjoint assimilation code• Validating model clouds and physical parameterisations• Choices of observation error, QC and bias correction

Page 34: ECMWF Status Report

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

Summary

•Data volumes / instruments continue to increase•Automated alert system now fully operational•Early CrIS and ATMS results are encouraging•Loss of ENVISAT was a major event, especially for ocean and ozone analysis•Principal component assimilation has been demonstrated for cloud-free scenes•FY3 characterisation led to very valuable re-analysis of errors in MSU and AMSU-A data record•EDA techniques used to try to estimate sensitivity of system to number of GPSRO observations