The Growth Pipeline™ Company Powering clients towards a future shaped by growth Global EV Penetration will Increase from 4.5% in 2020 to 6.1% in 2021 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 MG28-45 July 2021 Global Automotive & Transportation Research Team at Frost & Sullivan Preview
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The Growth Pipeline™ Company Powering clients towards a future shaped by growth
Global EV Penetration will Increase from 4.5% in 2020 to 6.1% in 2021
Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021
M G 2 8 - 4 5
J u l y 2 0 2 1
G l o b a l A u t o m o t i v e & T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h T e a m a t F r o s t & S u l l i v a n
Preview
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Section Slide Number
Growth Environment 12
Key Highlights of the Electric Vehicle Market, 2020 13
Impact of COVID-19 on the EV Industry 14
The 2020 Global Electric Vehicle Market—Actuals Versus Forecast 15
Electric Vehicles Sold in the Last Decade 16
Global EV Market, 2020 17
EV Growth and Penetration—Top 10 Countries 18
EV Growth and Penetration—Top 10 OEMs 19
Hybrid Electric Vehicles Sold in the Last Decade 20
Global HEV Market, 2020 21
Top Predictions, 2021 22
Global EV Market, 2021e 23
EV Growth and Penetration, Top 10 OEMs 24
Global Uptake of xEVs, 2015 to 2030 (Favorable Scenario) 25
EV Sales Mix by Segment 26
Potential Key OEM Launches 27
Contents
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Section Slide Number
EV Growth and Penetration—Top 10 Countries 28
Growth Environment, 2021 Global Economic Outlook 29
COVID-19 Impact on World GDP Growth 30
Global Growth Scenario Analysis—Assumptions 31
World GDP Growth Under Differing Scenarios 32
COVID-19 Impact on Key Regions 33
Strategic Imperatives 34
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow? 35
The Strategic Imperative 8™ 36
The Impact of the Top-three Strategic Imperatives on Electric Vehicle Industry 37
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™ 38
Segmentation and Scope, Global Electric Vehicle Industry 39
Global EVs—2020 Split by Chemistries and Top 5 OEMs’ Battery Utilization 149
Global EVs—2020 Split by Chemistries and Suppliers’ Battery Capacity 150
Lithium Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains 151
Evolution of Battery (Pack) Energy Density 152
Cost and Composition of a Typical Battery, 2020 153
Contents (continued)
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Section Slide Number
Growth Opportunity Universe, Global Electric Vehicle Market 154
Growth Opportunity 1—Electric Vehicles with Advanced Battery Packs for Improved Efficiency and Lower Cost
155
Growth Opportunity 2—Electrification of Flagship Models with a Preference toward BEV with Ultra-fast Charging Capability
157
Growth Opportunity 3—Evolving Business Models 159
Appendix 161
Abbreviations And Acronyms Used 162
Key Conclusions 163
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook 164
List of Exhibits 165
Legal Disclaimer 179
Contents (continued)
Author: Prajyot Sathe
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Strategic Imperatives
Preview
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Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
Source: Frost & Sullivan
The Strategic Imperative 8™: Factors Creating Pressure on Growth
Preview
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The Strategic Imperative 8™
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Customer Value Chain
Compression
Innovative Business
Models
Transformative Mega
Trends Internal Challenges
Geopolitical Chaos Competitive Intensity Disruptive Technologies Industry Convergence
Customer value chain compression as a result of advanced technologies, internet platforms, and other direct-to-consumer models that enables reduction in friction and the number of steps in customer journeys
A new revenue model that defines how a company creates and capitalizes economic value, typically impacting its value proposition, product offering, operational strategies, and brand positioning
Global forces that define the future world with their far-reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures, and personal lives
The internal organizational behaviors that prevent a company from making required changes
Chaos and disorder arising from political discord, natural calamities, pandemics, and social unrest that impact global trade, collaboration, and business security
A new wave of competition from start-ups and digital business models that challenge the standing conventions of the past, compelling established industries to re-think their competitive stance
New, disruptive technologies that are displacing the old, and significantly altering the way consumers, industries, or businesses operate
Collaboration between previously disparate industries to deliver on whitespace cross-industry growth opportunities Prev
iew
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The Impact of the Top-three Strategic Imperatives on Electric Vehicle Industry
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Transformative Mega Trends Competitive Intensity Disruptive Technologies
• Countries across the globe are working
toward ambitious targets. Some of these
are:
o Net zero emissions by 2050
o ICE ban from 2030 in some regions
• xEV passenger car penetration reached
11.6% in 2020.
• In 2020, global BEV share was 3.1% and is
expected to grow to 4.1% in 2021.
• By 2025, EVs will constitute approximately
10% to 15% of the total overall passenger
car market.
• Ultra-fast charging will be the key to
long-distance travel which will be
established in sufficient numbers in the
next 4-to-5 years.
SI8
• The global push toward electrification and
fuel economy is leading to ever-stringent
emissions norms.
o This has resulted in some regions
already committing to ICE bans.
o Some regions are still working toward
specific commitments.
• Battery electric vehicles, with longer range,
are competitively priced compared to ICE
vehicles.
• Increasing number of fast-charging stations
will reduce the range anxiety and charging
capability.
• Ultra-fast charging is being widely adopted
to overcome the challenge of a long
charging time. Wh
y W
he
n
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Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
The Growth Pipeline Engine™ The Innovation Generator™
An
alytical P
ersp
ective
s
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Preview
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Segmentation and Scope, Global Electric Vehicle Industry
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Research Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan
The study covers the automotive market that develops and provides products, solutions, and/or services for mobility of people. The key sectors considered as per the scope of the study are:
• Cars
• Car-based SUVs
• Pickup Trucks
Market/Segment/
Program Area
2021, unless otherwise indicated Forecast Period
2020 to 2021; in some cases, long-term (2023, 2025, 2030) and historical data outlook may also be presented
Study Period
2020 Base Year
• Asia-Pacific (excluding China)
• Americas
• China
• Europe
• The Middle East and Africa
Geographic Scope Preview
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Vehicle Segmentation
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Class Description Global Traditional Segment Examples
Small A—Basic Basic Citroen C1, Fiat 500, Renault Twingo, VW Up!, Smart Fortwo
B—Small Sub-compact FIAT 500L, Honda Fit, Ford Fiesta, Nissan March, Toyota Yaris
Medium
C—Lower Medium Compact
Volvo V40, Subaru Impreza, VW Golf, Ford Focus, Mercedes-Benz A-Class
Super Compact Toyota Etios Platinum, Mahindra Verito, Suzuki Swift Dzire
D—Upper Medium Midsize Cadillac CTS, Toyota Camry, Ford Mondeo, Mercedes C-Class, VW Passat
High End
E—Executive Large Lincoln Continental, BMW 5 Series, Audi A6, Mercedes-Benz E-Class
F—Luxury Large Plus BMW 7 Series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, Audi A8, Lexus LS
G—Sports Sport Jaguar XJ, Audi A7, Mercedes-Benz SLC-Class, Ford Mustang
Van
MPV MPV VW Sharan, Toyota Innova, Toyota Sienna
SUV SUV Audi Q5, BMW X3 and X6, Ford Explorer, Chevrolet Tahoe
Van Van Citroen Berlingo, Ford Transit, Mercedes-Benz Sprinter, Toyota Commuter
Pickup Pickup Pickup Toyota Hilux, Nissan Frontier, Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-150 Preview
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xEV Market Overview—Europe, 2020
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Europe—Historic EV Sales
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2020. Source: Frost & Sullivan
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e
Electric Vehicle Market: Historic EV Sales, Europe, 2014–2021e
Un
its
Preview
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Recycling and Reuse Market Outlook
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Battery Reuse and Recycling—Installed Battery
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2020. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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