Global Disaster Human Displacement Estimates 2012 May2013

8/13/2019 Global Disaster Human Displacement Estimates 2012 May2013

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GlobalEstimates2012Peopledisplacedbydisasters


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May

Global estimates 2012

People displaced by disasters


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Lead author: Michelle YonetaniResearcher: Simone HolladayContributors: Justin Ginnetti, Noemie Pierre, Melanie WissingEditor: Tim MorrisDesigner: Rachel Natali

IDMC/NRC reviewers: Sebastian Albuja, Fran Beytrison, Anne-Kathrin Glatz-Zimmerman, Kate Halff, CarolineHoward, Frederick Kok, Tine Ramstad, ElizabethRushing, Frank Smith, Clare Spurrell, Rolf Vestik and Nadine Walicki

External reviewers:

Simon Bagshaw, Policy Development and Studies Branch, UNOffice for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Regina Below, International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED), IRSS, Universit catholique de Louvain

Francois Gemenne, Research fellow, Institut de recherche sur les politiques, lInstitut du dveloppement durable etdes relations internationales (IDDRI)- Sciences Po / CEDEM- University of Lige

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC); Sue Le Mesurier, Manager, Migration Unitand Frdric Zanetta, Disaster Information Senior Officer

International Organisation for Migration (IOM); Nuno Nunes, Dina Ionesco, Patrice Quesada, Dan Salmon, JenniferKvernmo, Lorelle Yuen, and IOMcountry offices in Afghanistan (Marco Boasso, Kristine Velayo); Bolivia (WalterArce Sanchez, Ramiro Blanco, Juan Horacio Calle); Cambodia (Dr. Leul Ayalew Mekonnen, Chanthida Dum, BrettDickson); China (Pr Liljert); Colombia (Marcelo Pisani, Sandra Castaneda); Haiti (Damien Jusselme, GiovanniCassani, Vlatko Avramovski, Gregoire Goodstein); Indonesia (Denis Nihill, Angela Staiger); Kenya (Ashraf El Nour,Fatma Said, Mireille Mugisha, Heather Komenda); Nepal (Maurizio Busatti, Prajwal Sharma and Jitendra Bohara);Niger (Abibatou Wane, Constant Ouedraogo); Nigeria (Martin Ocaga, Uche Hilary-Ogbonna); Pakistan (EnricoPonziani, Maria Moita, Katherine Smalley); Peru (Jose-Ivan Davalos, Cesar Estrella); the Philippines (Miguel MartinMenez, Mark Maulit, Anna Charis Galaraga, Dave Bercasio, Conrado Navidad); Russia (Zlatko Zigic, Dmitriy Babin,Alina Narusova); Sri Lanka (Richard Danziger, Amalraj Nallainathan); Thailand (Jeffrey Labovitz, Karl Baker); andUganda (Gerard Waite, Christine Mutabuza)

Roger Zetter, Professor Emeritus in Refugee Studies, Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford Department ofInternational Development

Cover photo: A boy peeks from the entrance of a makeshift shelter at a camp outside the Chadian capital NDjamenawhere thousands sought refuge in the aftermath of heavy flooding in . Otto Bakano/IRIN

Please note: The global, regional and national estimates provided in this report are based on informa-tion available to IDMCon the overall scale of displacement related to disasters as of April . Where newinformation becomes available, the IDMCdataset is updated. Revisions to aggregate figures are reflected inthe following years report.

Total displacement per country and all disasters that displaced at least , people are listed in annexesto this report. In the body of this report, figures of , and over have been rounded to the nearest ,;figures of , and less have been rounded to the nearest . Data on all disaster-induced displacementevents for each year since including sources of information used is available upon request. Please email:[email protected].
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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With thanks for information provided to the following governments in particular:

Bolivia: Early Warning Unit of the Vice Ministry of Civil Defence, Centro de Operaciones de Emergencia Departa-

mental (COED) and Unidades de Gestin de Riesgo (UGR)Cambodia: National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM)China: Ministry of Civil AffairsColombia: National Disaster Risk Management Unit/Unidad Nacional para la Gestin del Riesgo de Desastres(UNGRD)Ecuador: National System for Risk Management (NSRM)Indonesia: National Board for Disaster Management/Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB)Niger: Comit Ad Hoc de Gestion des InondationsNigeria: National Emergency Management Agency Nigeria (NEMA) and National Commission for Refugees, Migrantsand Internally Displaced Persons (NCFRMI)Peru: Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil del Per (INDECI)Philippines: Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)

Russia: Ministry for Emergency Situations (MChS) Information Department, National Center for Crisis SituationsManagementSri Lanka: Disaster Management CentreUganda: Disaster Management OfficeThailand: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)

Thanks to our donors

(in partnership with UNHCR)


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Table of contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Displacement on a global scale and trends in displacement risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. million displaced in ; almost twice as many as in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. million displaced over five years, -. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Annual variance due to the largest mass displacement events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The increasing risk of disaster-induced displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. The largest mass displacement events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

a) The largest displacement event of : flood disaster in North-east India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b) Successive flood and typhoon disasters in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

c) Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in the Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

d) Recurrent monsoon flood displacement in Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

e) West and central Africa floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

f) The Philippines- floods, typhoons and a closer look at Mindanao . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Displacement by geographical region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Americas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oceania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Countries with the highest levels of displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Countries with the highest numbers of displaced people. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Displacement in developing and high income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Higher vulnerability in LDCs and SIDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Highest per capita displacement in Chad and Haiti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Displacement related to different types of hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Displacement by weather-related hazards compared to geophysical hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Modelling the risk of displacement associated with rapid-onset hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Building and applying knowledge about drought-induced displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Building the evidence base: Displacement data collection and reporting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. Methodology and sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. : Largest disaster-induced displacement events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. : Displacement data tables for countries and geographical sub-regions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References and endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


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Tables and figures

Figure: Disaster-induced displacement worldwide in (centre fold) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Typology of natural hazard-related disasters included in the study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Box . Key terms and concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure . Global disaster-induced displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Displacement due to mega-scale displacement events, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Annual global displacement by scale of event, -*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Box . Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Climate Change andDisplacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: The five largest displacement events, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Top largest disaster-induced displacement events in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Pakistan flood disaster-affected districts and displacement (, and ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: People displaced by Hurricane Sandy across six countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Map of west and central Africa flood displacement, June-October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: New displacement in Nigeria, Niger, Chad and South Sudan, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: The Philippines- Monthly scale of new displacement over four years, -. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Displacement in the Philippines, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Map of temporary shelters and relocation sites and flood and landslide risks for IDPs in and aroundCagayan de Oro and Iligan city in Mindanao, the Philippines (November ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Asia- Five largest displacement events, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Figure .: Global displacement per region, and - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Annual displacement per region, - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Africa- Five largest displacement events, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Americas- Five largest displacement events, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Oceania- Five largest displacement events, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Europe- Five largest displacement events, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Top ten countries with most displacement in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Top countries with the most displacement over - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Box .: Disasters and displacement estimates for China in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Displacement in developing countries and High Income Countries (HICS). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Displacement relative to the size of total population, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Displacement relative to the size of total population, -. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Box . Disasters, recurrent displacement and vulnerability in Haiti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Displacement by weather/ climate related hazards vs. geophysical hazards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table .: Displacement by type of related hazard, and - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Displacement risk in Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Proportion of displacement by category of hazard, and - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Modelling drought-induced displacement of pastoralists in Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Figure .: Table .: Sources of data on disaster-induced displacement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


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6 Internal DisplacementMonitoring Centre |May 2013

The displacement of people by the risk and impact ofdisasters is a concern for policymakers in both rich andpoor countries worldwide. Since , the NorwegianRefugee Councils Internal Displacement MonitoringCentre (IDMC) has been providing global estimates of thenumber of people displaced each year to inform policy andmeasures by governments and other humanitarian anddevelopment actors that address the risk of displacementand ensure vulnerable displaced people are protected.This years report presents new findings for displacementduring and analysis drawn from five years of datacompiled by IDMC. As with previous years, estimates were

determined by collecting, cross-checking and analysingsecondary data from an expanding range of sources relat-ed to rapid-onset weather-related and geophysical hazardevents. Statistical data is complemented by research onspecific countries, situations and types of disasters.

In , an estimated . million people in countrieswere newly displaced by disasters associated with nat-ural hazard events. Over five years from to ,around million people were forced from their homes in countries. Around three-quarters of these countrieswere affected by multiple disaster-induced displacementevents over the period. Repeated displacement sets backrecovery and development gains, undermines resilienceand compounds vulnerability to further disaster.

The vast majority of this displacement ( per centin ; per cent over five years) was triggered byclimate- and weather-related hazards such as floods,storms and wildfires. had the lowest level of dis-

placement due to geophysical disasters for five years;around , people were displaced by earthquakeand volcanic eruption disasters.

The two largest events of , flood disasters in north-east India and Nigeria, accounted for per cent ofthe years total. Eight disasters each caused mass dis-placement on the largest scale of between one to .million people. The varying frequency and size of suchmega-scale events has created substantial fluctuationsin global totals for each year. Annual global displacementbetween and has ranged between . million

people in and over . million in .

Executive Summary

While prolonged and protracted displacement is not un-common, particularly following major disasters, the cumu-lative number of displaced people worldwide as of the endof is unknown. This constitutes an important blindspot in the current global data. Displaced populations areat increased risk of being neglected, unprotected andleft without durable solutions to their displacement thelonger they are displaced.

As in previous years, most disaster-induced displacementin was in Asia where disaster risk is highly concen-trated (. million people displaced; per cent). At thesame time, displacement in Africa reached a five-yearhigh due to widespread floods across western and centralregions: . million people were displaced, compared to, displaced in the continent in . High levels ofdisplacement in Niger, Chad and South Sudan, as well asin Nigeria, compounded the vulnerability of people facingsevere food insecurity, many of them already displacedby conflict.

also saw the highest levels of displacement since in Oceania, forcing over , people from theirhomes. This included displacement caused by flood andstorm disasters in Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Australia.In the Americas, . million people were displaced, mostlydue to Hurricane Sandys impact across eight countries,and floods related to La Nia weather phenomenon inPeru and Colombia. In Europe, around , peoplewere displaced, including by flood disasters in southernRussia and an earthquake in northern Italy.

Five countries (China, India, Pakistan, the Philippines andNigeria) had the highest numbers of people displaced bydisasters in , as well as in the last five years overall.Data reveals strong patterns of frequent and repeateddisplacement as well as displacement on a massive scale.

India had the most new displacement worldwide in

In 2012, an estimated 32.4 million peoplein 82 countries were newly displaced bydisasters; 144 million over five years

The vast majority of displacement istriggered by climate- and weather-relatedhazards (98 per cent in 2012; 83 per centover five years)

The two largest events of 2012, flooddisasters in north-east India and Nigeria,

accounted for 41 per cent of the yearstotal


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7Global estimates 2012 | People displaced by disasters

(. million) and the second highest number in -(. million). However, this was almost half the numberin China where . million were forced from their homesover the same period. The number of people displaced in in the Philippines (. million) and Pakistan ( million)was also very high relative to the size of their populations.

Displacement takes a toll on both the richest and poorest

countries. Two and a half million people were displaced inHigh-Income Countries (HICs) between and ;. million in . The USA, for example, was among thetop ten countries with the most new displacement in. The vast majority of people displaced ( per centover -), however, were in developing countries,reflecting the strong correlation between poverty, thenumber of people exposed to hazards and displacement.Furthermore, many of the countries where people weredisplaced by disasters are also conflict-affected (arounda quarter of those countries with new disaster-induceddisplacement in ), compounding vulnerability and the

risk of further displacement.

Data reveals strong patterns of frequentand repeated displacement as well asdisplacement on a massive scale

While the highest numbers of people displaced world-wide are seen in large and densely populated countries,dominated by Asia, displacement relative to populationsize reveals a different picture and includes countries inAfrica, the Americas and Oceania among those worstaffected. The poorest and Least Developed Countries(LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) aremore likely to have a high level of per capita displace-ment. Some of the SIDS(including Samoa, Cuba, Fiji, theComoros and Papua New Guinea) had the highest levelsof per capita displacement by disasters in . Haiti, aSIDand LDC, had displacement levels equivalent to per cent of its total population (. million people) during

- the highest relative level of displacementexperienced by any country.

For this reason, together with their high vulnerabilityto disasters, the poorest countries and SIDSwarrantparticular attention due to the pressure put on limited

resources to respond and recover as well as to prevent

The poorest countries and SIDS warrantparticular attention: Chad (2012) andHaiti (over five years) had the highest percapita displacement

IDPs outside a school in Koton Kafi, Kogi State where over hundred families are sheltering having been displaced by severe floods that have left themhomeless and destroyed their crops. (Photo: Shelterbox/Mike Greenslade, November )


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and prepare for further disasters and displacement. Therisk of future displacement can remain elevated for yearsfollowing a major event. In . million were displacedin LDCs; . million over the past five years. Over ,people were displaced in SIDSin ; and a total of .million over five years.

The risk of displacement is expected to rise in line with re-lated and interconnected global trends that increase therisk of disaster. These include population growth, rapidurbanisation and the exposure of vulnerable communi-ties, homes and livelihoods to hazards. Due to improved

life-saving measures, mortality rates associated withmajor weather-related hazards are falling, yet increasingnumbers of disaster survivors will still be displaced fromtheir homes. In the longer term, human-made climatechange is expected to increase the frequency and se-verity of weather-related hazards including floods andstorms, which account for a high proportion of disaster-in-duced displacement each year. The level of displacementrisk will be greatly influenced by how well countries andcommunities are able to strengthen disaster prevention,preparedness and response and adapt to new realities.

The way forward

High levels of disaster-induced displacement and its fre-quency place huge pressure on limited local, national andinternational resources. Chronic and recurrent displace-ment, whatever its scale, undermines development gainsand increases risks and needs faced by exposed andvulnerable populations. In both developing and developedcountries more must be done by governments, donors,civil society and other actors to prevent, prepare for andrespond to displacement. National and local policies,plans and measures should be developed and implement-

ed to support community-based resilience, strengthenearly warning and response mechanisms and developthe capacity of local authorities to protect, manage andfind solutions for displaced people.

The systematic collection, analysis and sharing of dataon disaster-induced displacement, including a commonset of indicators for recording and reporting on displace-ment, is a critical first step. Information available tendsto be biased, however, towards reporting on the largestevents and on the most visible displaced people takingrefuge in official shelter sites. Displaced people taking

refuge with host families and communities (very often the

majority of those displaced), people displaced repeatedlyby smaller-scale events, and people caught in protracteddisplacement are at risk of being overlooked or neglected.Reported data is mostly available from a smaller propor-tion of affected countries where there is strong nationalcommitment and capacity for disaster management and

prevention, or strong international agency, donor andmedia presence. Many countries have developed, or aredeveloping, information systems for improved disasterrisk management. Improved and reliable information isneeded, however, on displaced people and their specificconcerns to inform policy and measures where they areneeded the most.

IDMChopes that the findings of this report will continue toraise awareness and inform the work of governments andnon-governmental actors to better address the human-itarian, development and human rights concerns facedby those displaced and at risk of being displaced bydisasters.

The risk of displacement is expected torise in line with global trends that increasethe risk of disaster

The systematic collection, analysis andsharing of data is critical to inform policyand measures where they are needed the

most


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Box 1.1 Key terms and concepts

Natural hazardsare events or conditions originating in the natural environment that may affect people and crit-ical assets located in exposed areas. They include climate- and weather-related events as well as geo-physicalevents. The nature of these hazards is often strongly influenced by human actions, including urban development,deforestation, dam-building, release of flood waters and high carbon emissions that contribute to long-term

changes in the global climate. Thus, their causes are often less than natural.

The methodology for this study estimates displacement associated with hazards that impact communities rapidlyor are experienced as sudden shocks or triggers to movement, such as storms, floods, landslides, earthquakesand wildfires. It does not quantify displacement in the context of slow-onset or gradually deteriorating situationsrelated to drought and sea-level rise that result in loss of habitat and livelihoods (see Table .).

Disaster is defined as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespreadhuman, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community orsociety to cope using its own resources (UNOffice for Disaster Risk Reduction, ). Disasters result froma combination of risk factors: the exposure of people and critical assets to single or multiple hazards togetherwith existing conditions of vulnerability, including insufficient capacity or measures to reduce or cope with

potential negative consequences.

Displacement addressed in this report is a result of the threat and impact of disasters. It also increases therisk of future disasters and further displacement. Being displaced puts people at a higher risk of impover-ishment and human rights abuses, creating new concerns and exacerbating pre-existing vulnerability. This isespecially true where homes and livelihoods are destroyed and where displacement is recurrent or remainsunresolved for prolonged periods of time. Forced from their homes, people face specific forms of deprivation,such as the loss of shelter, and often face heightened or particular protection risks such as family separationand sexual and gender-based violence, particularly affecting women and children.The process of returningand resettling back home or relocating elsewhere brings other challenges before a durable solution can befound (see below on durable solutions).

It is widely agreed that the vast majority of people displaced by disasters are internally displaced. A smallernumber are displaced across borders but this has not been quantified globally. As defined by the GuidingPrinciples on Internal Displacement, internally displaced people (IDPs) are individuals or groups of people whohave been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence [] and who havenot crossed an internationally recognised state border.2

The non-voluntary nature of the movement is central to the definition of displacement. It includes people forcedfrom their homes or evacuated in order to avoid the effects or a threat of disaster. It does not matter howfar people are forced to move. Displacement may include situations where people are rendered homeless ordeprived of their livelihoods but remain close to their original dwellings, whether through choice or becausethey have no alternative access to shelter and assistance.

Disasters that develop rapidly or are triggered suddenly, such as by an earthquake, create very little room for

choice in terms of whether or not to flee. This is assuming flight is an option at all. In slow-onset or graduallydeveloping disaster situations the decision to move is typically more complex and involves decisions situatedon a continuum between voluntary and forced. This is discussed further in section in relation to modellingdisplacement by disasters related to drought.

On the other hand, voluntary and planned migration or relocation can be a way to adapt and build the resilienceof people facing high and increasing risk of disaster and to avoid or prevent displacement. People who aretrapped or forced to stay may be at greater risk than those able to move to safer locations.3

Adurable solution to displacement is defined as being achieved when internally displaced people (IDPs) aresustainably (re)integrated and no longer have any specific assistance and protection needs that are linked totheir displacement and can enjoy their human rights without discrimination on account of their displacement

(IASC).4

IDPs whether they return to their homes, settle elsewhere in the country, or try to integrate locallywhere they are displaced usually face continuing problems and risks requiring support beyond the acute crisisperiod of a disaster. Achieving a durable solution is thus a gradual and complex process requiring timely andcoordinated efforts to address humanitarian, development and human rights concerns including measures toprevent and prepare for further displacement.5


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Displacement on a global scale and trends indisplacement risk

32.4 million displaced in 2012; almost twiceas many as in 2011

In , an estimated . million people were forcedfrom their homes by the risk or impact of rapid-onsetdisasters associated with natural hazards such as floodsand earthquakes. This figure is almost twice the numberof people displaced in . As for previous years thisestimate does not include disasters related to drought(see Section for more on drought-related displacement).

143.9 million displaced over five years,2008-2012

From to , an estimated . million people in countries worldwide were newly displaced by rap-id-onset disasters triggered by hazards such as floods,storms, earthquakes and wildfires. This aggregated figurefor new displacement during the period includes millionsof people who have been repeatedly displaced. Aroundthree-quarters of these countries were affected by mul-tiple displacement events between -. At least. million people were displaced each year, with morethan double this number in when more than .million people were displaced (see Figure .).

2008 2010 20122009 2011**

36.1 32.442.316.7 16.4

2008 to 2012:

143.9million displaced

Figure 2.1: Global disaster-induced displacement*

* Number of individual people displaced. Rounded to the nearest ,. ** Revised figure.

Prolonged and protracted displacement is not uncommonas seen in many countries. This is particularly the casefollowing major and recurrent disasters when homes andlivelihoods are destroyed and safe return is not possible.See Box . on Haiti, for example, and Section c on theUSA. The cumulative number of displaced people world-wide is unknown, however, including people still displacedfollowing events in previous years. This is an importantblind spot in the global data given the increasing riskof displaced populations being neglected, unprotectedand left without durable solutions the longer they aredisplaced for.

Annual variance due to the largest massdisplacement events

Variance between the annual global estimates is mostlydue to the scale and frequency of the largest or mega-scale displacement events, which have each displacedbetween one to fifteen million people between two toeight times every year since . In , there wereeight disasters that each displaced between one to .million people, accounting for most of the people dis-placed worldwide ( per cent) (see Figure .). Therewere events on this mega scale over five years; -


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Table 2.1: Displacement due to mega-scale displacement events, 2008-2012

All Years

Number of mega-events* 8 events 3 events 7 events 3 events 8 events 29 events

% global displacement 80% 38% 80% 41% 68% 68%

* At least million people displaced per event

(see Table .). The two largest events, flooddisasters in north-east India and across almost all ofNigeria, account for per cent of all people displacedin the year (see Table .).

Medium to small events, each displacing less than ,people, accounted for a relatively non-fluctuating annu-al figure of approximately two million people. However,significant under-reporting of smaller, but frequent, dis-placement events means this figure is undoubtedly anunderestimate (see Figure .).

The increasing risk of disaster-induceddisplacement

While the data compiled for - does not allow

longer-term trends in displacement to be observed, therisk of displacement is projected to rise in line with relatedand interconnected global trends that increase the riskof disaster. These include:

Population growth and exposure in hazard-prone

areas: More people than ever are living in locationsexposed to natural hazards, particularly in urban andperi-urban areas. Poorer families are disproportionatelyexposed as they are more likely to live on land not formallyintended for residential purposes or highly exposed tohazards such as floods and landslides.

Urbanisation and sub-standard housing: Living inhousing unable to withstand even predictable, small-er-scale hazard events directly contributes to displace-ment risk. This may include the risk of prolonged displace-ment when homes are destroyed or severely damagedand return is not a safe and early option. Migration fromrural to urban areas, lack of social housing for poorer

families, unplanned growth of informal and unplannedsettlements and unimplemented standards for disas-ter-resistant housing construction puts millions at risk,with the poorest hit the hardest.

Displaced villagers padddle with their belongings through flood waters in the Pobitora Wildlife Sanctuary, some kms from Guwahati, the capital city ofthe northeastern state of Assam on June , . Photo: AFP/Biju BORO


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Fewer deaths and more displaced survivors: Mortal-ity risk related to major weather-related hazards is nowfalling globally, including in Asia, due to improvements inearly warning and other life-saving measures.7Howev-er, increasing numbers of disaster-affected people maythen face specific problems due to being displaced. This

includes risks faced while they are fleeing from dangerand during their stay in places of refuge. Early return tohome areas may be to houses unfit or unsafe to live inand where access to basic services and critical econom-ic and social support networks are still disrupted. Evenin the case of displacement in the form of pre-emptiveevacuations the evacuation process and time in crowded

0

10

20

30

40

50

20122011201020092008

Mega events (1 million or more displaced)

Large events (100,000 or more displaced)Small to medium events (less than 100,000 displaced)

0

30

60

90

120

150

All years

Peopledisplaced(millions)

Peopledisplaced(millions)

80%

80%

41%

68%

68%

26%

6%

38%

Figure 2.2: Annual global displacement by scale of event, 2008-2012*

shelters often brings particular risks for vulnerable peoplewith protection needs, including women, children, olderpeople and people with disabilities.

Increasingly frequent, intense and variable extreme

weather events: In the longer term, human-inducedclimate change is expected to increase the frequencyand severity of weather-related hazards, including floods,storms, wildfires and droughts which contribute to mostdisaster-induced displacement (see Box.).


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Box 2.1 Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) onClimate Change and Displacement

The IPCC launched a special report in March , Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters toAdvance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) . SREX was written over two and a half years, involved hundreds

of authors and reviewers and its findings were approved by governments. The report acknowledges asignificant relationship between extreme weather or climate events (climate extremes) and displacement:

Although data on climate change-forced displacement is incomplete, it is clear that the many outcomes ofclimate change processes will be seen and felt as disasters by the affected populations. For people affectedby disasters, subsequent displacement and resettlement often constitute a second disaster in their lives.8

The report also says that:

Disasters associated with climate extremes influence population mobility and relocation, affecting hostand origin communities (medium agreement, medium evidence). If disasters occur more frequently and/orwith greater magnitude, some local areas will become increasingly marginal as places to live or in which

to maintain livelihoods. In such cases, migration and displacement could become permanent and couldintroduce new pressures in areas of relocation. For locations such as atolls, in some cases it is possiblethat many residents will have to relocate.9

Evidence suggests that climate change has already altered the magnitude and frequency of some climateextremes in some regions and that these climate extremes have become more unpredictable. Also, significantimpacts on the severity and magnitude of climate extremes in the future are likely, though with strong variationsbetween different regions.

Even without taking climate change into account, disaster risk will continue to increase in many countries asmore people and assets are exposed to climate extremes:

Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors, including anthro-pogenic climate change, natural climate variability, and socioeconomic development.10

The IPCCreports that for the nexttwo or three decades the expected increase in climate extremes will prob-ably be relatively small compared to normal year-to-year variations in such extremes. Therefore, changes inexposure and vulnerability will be the predominant driver of increases (or decreases) in disaster risk.

These findings point to the importance of improvements in national risk management and preparednessmeasures to address disaster-induced displacement.


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thousands of families were left homeless after damageto homes and public infrastructure and forced to takerefuge with friends and relatives or in emergency shelters.

Typhoon Haikui, the largest in this series of disasters,made landfall on August, bringing heavy rains and flood-

ing and displacing over two million people in Shanghai andthe surrounding provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.In Shanghai , people living in port areas and intemporary housing had to be evacuated.20The Shenjiak-eng Reservoir in the Zhoushan archipelago in Zhejiangcollapsed, destroying one-third of Zhangtu township.

Some of the Haikui-affected provinces had been hit justfive days earlier by twin typhoons Saola and Damreywhich made landfall within hours of each other on Au-gust. The two storms, heavy rain and floods caused wide-spread damage across ten provinces and displaced over

, people. Over , houses were completelydestroyed.21

Ten days after Haikui arrived, Typhoon Kai-Tak affectedcoastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi, displacing afurther , people. The typhoon destroyed about, houses, damaged another , and caused eco-nomic losses of over . billion yuan (c. . million).22

For more on disaster data in China and displacementestimates, see Box ..

c) Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in theAmericas

Hurricane Sandy, the largest tropical system on recordin the Atlantic basin, was the deadliest storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It killed at least people andaffected eight countries in late October.23Starting as aCaribbean tropical storm on October , it intensifiedto hurricane level just before making landfall in Cubaon the th. Sandy then tracked through the Bahamasbefore turning north-west and hitting the United Statesas a tropical storm on October th.24Its outer bands also

brought heavy rains, wind and floods to other countries,including Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica andthe Bahamas.

More than three-quarters of a million people in the UnitedStates were forced to leave their homes. Dubbed Super-storm Sandy by the USmedia, the disaster affected states on the eastern seaboard, in the Appalachians andin parts of the Midwest. The most severe damage wasin New Jersey and in New York. The disaster becamethe costliest storm disaster in UShistory, with economicdamage assessed in the region of billion.

As of late April, an estimated , New Jersey familiesremained displaced according to the State Governor,down from , the day after the storm. More than families were still living in hotel rooms across New Yorkpaid for by the Federal Emergency Management Agency,while others were living with relatives or in temporary

rented accommodation.25

In Cuba, around , homes unable to withstand thehurricanes impact were destroyed and around ,people displaced by widespread coastal flooding andwind damage. While far fewer than in the USA, the pro-portion of the total population exposed and displacedby the storm was much greater with . in every people displaced, compared to . people in every ,in the USA .

Haiti also had a higher proportion of its population dis-

placed compared to the USA, with over people in every, of its highly vulnerable population displaced. Thelonger term impacts on Haiti can be expected to be farreaching compared to either the USAor Cuba given itsrelative lack of capacity to recover from the disaster aswell as to prevent or prepare for the next one (see Table.). Further information on displacement and vulnerabil-ity in Haiti is provided in Box ..

d) Recurrent monsoon flood displacement inPakistan

Pakistan was hit by large-scale floods in followingheavy rains that began on September . . millionpeople were affected according to the National DisasterManagement Authority (NDMA). An estimated . millionpeople were displaced as a result of widespread dam-age to homes, infrastructure and livelihoods across thethree hardest-hit areas of western Balochistan, northernSindh and southern Punjab. A joint UN and governmentassessment in September found around per

cent of houses in five of the most-affected districts were

Table 3.3: People displaced by Hurricane Sandyacross six countries

Country Peopledisplaced HDI *

USA 776,000 Very high

Cuba 343,000 High

Haiti 32,000 Low

Dominican Republic 19,000 Medium

Jamaica 2,000 High

Bahamas 200 High

* UNDP Human Development Index


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damaged or destroyed. Emergency shelter needs werecritical, with over a quarter of the assessed populationlacking any shelter.26The government estimated ,homes had been damaged or destroyed.27

Many of the affected districts, particularly in Balochistan

and Sindh, were already struggling to recover from thefloods of and , some being inundated for the thirdyear in succession (see Figure .). Balochistan was alsohit by an earthquake disaster in . Consecutive yearsof flood disasters have deepened a food crisis in Sindh,triggering severe malnutrition. Towards the end of , per cent of the provinces population was food insecure,including . per cent experiencing severe hunger.28Acouple of months before the floods, critical supportto people displaced ten months earlier by the floodswere still unmet. Funding needed for critical shelter assis-tance, for example, was only six per cent covered as of the

end of June . Reduced humanitarian presence andcuts in human resources also hampered preparednessmeasures by the government and humanitarian part-ners ahead of the new monsoon season.29Furthermore,Balochistan and Sindh have Pakistans highest rates ofpopulation growth, thus increasing the number of peopleexposed to potential disaster in the future.30

By the end of . million flood IDPs were still in tem-porary shelter, putting people at greater risk during Paki-stans cold winter.31Over a third of displaced people hadreturned to their places of origin two to three months afterbeing forced to flee the danger related to rising flood-waters, the destruction of homes and property and the

disruption of land-based livelihoods. However, over halfthe returnees were not in their own homes but residingin temporary shelters in their towns and villages. Aroundtwo per cent remained in IDPsettlements elsewhere. Asof April , some areas were still inundated, with .million flood-affected people continuing to be displacedin makeshift shelters near their original homes or in tem-porary shelters.32

There is particular concern for vulnerable people withspecific needs in such situations, including older persons,people with disabilities and those at risk of exclusion.

Ongoing lack of funding is again adding to the problem ofbasic needs remaining unmet with the new rainy seasonexpected to begin in July.33With each successive floodand other disasters the resilience of affected Pakistanisis at risk of being further undermined. Frequent, pro-tracted and repeated displacement looks set to increase.

Figure 3.1: Pakistan flood disaster-affected districts and displacement (2010, 2011 and 2012)

2010

2011

2012

Flood-affected areas:

AFGHANISTAN

INDIA

Disclaimer: The boundaries and names shown and thedesignations used on this map do not imply officialendorsement or acceptance by IDMC. Dotted linerepresents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu& Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan.

Jammuand KashmirKhyber

Pakhtunkhwa

FATA

Punjab

Islamabad

Balochistan

Sindh

Line ofcontrol

Year

* 1.6 million still displaced due to2012 floods as of December 2012.However, total cumulative figurefrom previous years unknown.

In addition, 758,000people were registeredas conflict IDPs as ofDecember 2012.

Source: OCHA

Source: IDMC

New Cumulative

2010 11 million No data

No data2011 1.8 million

No data*2012 1.86 million

Flood disaster IDPs

in Pakistan


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e) West and central Africa floods

Unusually heavy and prolonged rainfall from June to No-vember resulted in widespread flooding across countries. Displacement was reported in : Benin, Cam-eroon, Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic

Republic of Congo, Gabon, the Gambia, Mali, Niger, Ni-geria, Senegal, Sudan and South Sudan (see Figure .).Over . million people were displaced from their homes.The IFRC and national Red Cross and Red Crescentsocieties in a number of these countries highlighted theimportance of having a regional overview when planninginternational interventions in states with inter-linked flooddisasters (see Figure .).

Nigeria, Niger, Chad and South Sudan were the worstaffected, with the highest levels of flood-induced dis-placement and extremely vulnerable populations facing

multi-faceted insecurity and ongoing conflict displace-ment. These countries also have some of the worldslowest rankings in the Human Development Index.Out of countries, Niger is ranked , Chad is andNigeria is . South Sudan is not included in the index.34Per capita displacement in these four countrieswas between . and . per cent. These were amongthe worlds largest displacement events worldwide in (see Table .).

Traditional earth and/or mud brick housing in manyparts of the region is not designed to withstand severefloods. Thus hundreds of thousands of houses eithercollapsed or were made uninhabitable. Most of thosedisplaced took refuge with host families, while othersfound shelter in schools and other public buildings or setup makeshift shelters, mostly in informal camps. IDPsmade homeless and sheltering in schools were amongthe most vulnerable as governments promoted earlyreturn to free up school premises for the new academicyear. Overcrowding in IDP areas and poor water andsanitation created the additional risk of cholera andother water-borne diseases.

Nigeria

In Africas most populous country over . per cent of thepopulation, more than six million people, were displacedby widespread flooding across the country. This was thesecond largest disaster-induced displacement eventworldwide in , on a scale more usually associated withdisasters in highly populated Asian countries. The floodsaffected populated areas of the vast river plains of theBenue and Niger and their tributaries across thirty-threeof the countrys thirty-six states. Those hardest-hit in-cluded Adamawa, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross Rivers, Delta,Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Niger, Rivers and Taraba.35 IDMCdata for - shows that displacement due to flood

disasters is a regular occurrence in Nigeria (see Table

.). The floods, however, were the most devastatingin Nigerias history. Thousands of houses, bridges, otherpublic infrastructure and wide areas of farmland weredestroyed and numerous cattle killed.

The National Commissionfor Refugees , Migrants andInternally Displaced Persons(NCFRMI)reported that oversix million people were forced from their homes by thedisaster.36The National Emergency Management Au-thority (NEMA) noted that . million people were directlyaffected by the floods of whom over . million wereofficially registered as internally displaced in order toreceive assistance. Most displaced people took refugewith host families. While there were no official camps orIDPsettlements there were de factogatherings in over-crowded public buildings such as schools. In these sites,living conditions were reported to be dire with insufficientfood supplies, inadequate shelter and poor sanitation

and hygiene.37

Displacement by the floods came on topof the displacement of tens of thousands of people asa result of armed violence during the year, including insome flood-affected states such as Adamawa, Benue,Nassarawa and Plateau.38

National authorities, the IFRC, the Nigerian Red CrossSociety and UNICEFwere among the main actors pro-viding assistance. Nigerias President Goodluck Jonathanset up a Presidential Committee on Flood Relief andRehabilitation and pledged million to assist floodvictims.39However, the number of organisations and thelevel of funding and assistance delivered were insufficientcompared to the massive needs.

Most of the affected and displaced people were left tofend for themselves, both during the floods and after thewater had receded. Delivery of humanitarian assistancewas hampered by large distances, the remoteness ofmany affected communities and the blocking of certainroads as a result of the rising waters and destruction ofbridges.40Political insecurity was also an issue in someflood-affected states of central and northern Nigeria,where there are frequent ethno-religious clashes andwhere the radical Islamist group Boko Haram has at-

tacked civilians.41

Many IDPs remained homeless and faced severe foodinsecurity until the end of November. Authorities in somestates ordered people to return home so as to enablepublic facilities to resume their normal functions.42Localauthorities also insisted that people living in areas proneto flooding rebuild their houses on higher ground.43Thisraised fears that without proper assistance from the au-thorities in negotiating with landowners, especially instates already affected by conflict and violence, newclashes could flare up as a result of relocations. Since

November there has been little information available


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on the fate of those still displaced and those who havereturned home.

The floods were triggered by unusually heavy rainsbetween July and September together with the releaseof water from dams in Nigeria and the Lagdo dam inneighbouring Cameroon. It is clear that the frequency offlooding and resultant displacement is more attributableto human factors than to environmental drivers. An eight-year study from the Tai Solarin University of Education into

the pattern and parameters of floods in twenty five Nige-rian cities and towns found that human activities suchas the construction of dams, irrigation channels, bridgesand other infrastructure have impeded the free flowof water into natural and manmade drainage channels,particularly in rapidly growing urban centres. Respondentsto a wide survey of the causes of floods acknowledgedtorrential rainfall as a factor but accorded it far less im-portance compared to illegal construction, poor physicalplanning, blocked drainage channels, land reclamationand non-compliance with regulations. This indicates theneed for policymakers and urban planners to accord

greater importance to flood prevention measures.44

NigerDuring August and September, over , people weredisplaced by unprecedented floods. The most affectedregions were Tillabry and Dosso in the west, Zinder inthe south and the capital, Niamey.45Tens of thousandsof houses were destroyed, large areas of crops werelost and cattle killed. As in Nigeria and other Saheliancountries, the floods occurred during a period of severefood crisis. In addition, a cholera epidemic quickly spreadin the west, particularly in Tillabry region: nearly ,

people were affected and by October over had died.46

Further compounding the crisis was the presence in theflood-affected regions of Tahoua, Tillabry and Niamey of, refugees from the conflict in neighbouring Mali.47The kidnapping of six aid workers in October near Dakoroin southern Niger, reportedly by one of the Islamist groupsthat had seized control of northern Mali, prompted hu-manitarian organizations to reduce their activities whichhad an impact on assistance to displaced populations.48

Many of those displaced by the floods took refuge in over-

crowded schools, public buildings and mosques, having

Figure 3.2: Map of west and central Africa flood displacement, June-October 2012

Flood-affected areasThe Sahel

6.1 million

30,000

30,000

13,000

10,000

10,000

2,000

2,000

8,000

531,000

500,000

340,000

84,000Mali

Nigeria

Benin

Cameroon

Senegal

Niger

Chad

CAR

Gabon

Gambia

South Sudan

Sudan

DRC

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Nigeria

People displaced (millions)

NigerChad

S SudanSudan

Countries with conflict-induced displacement

The Sahel

Highest per capita displacement worldwide,2012 (4.2% of population displaced)

Largest displacementevent in Africa; second

largest worldwide, 2012.33/36 states affected.

Sources: CRED/EM-DAT, IFRC, Nigeria-NCFRMI/IOM,IOM, OCHA, UNICEF,


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dan during and , refugees from Sudan andthe Democratic Republic of Congo sought shelter in thecountry, including in flood-prone areas.

It is crucial that international actors, including donors,work to support national actors, particularly the Gov-ernment of South Sudan, to strengthen planning andcapacities for prevention, preparedness and humanitar-ian response as part of a broader vision for long-termdevelopment.

f) The Philippines: floods, typhoons and acloser look at Mindanao

In , the Philippines had its highest level of disas-ter-induced displacement in five years. Some . millionpeople were displaced. The Philippines is highly prone

Table 3.5: Displacement in the Philippines, 2008-2012

Total (-)

2,921,000 2,062,000 1,002,000 2,499,000 3,859,000 12,343,000

to frequent disasters and has recently had high levelsof new displacement of at least one million people perannum (see Table .).

These high levels of displacement were made up of mul-tiple events. Peak periods for new displacement over thepast four years include around September whenTyphoon Pepeng and another large flood event togetherdisplaced over . million people. Displacement peakedin June and December due to massive floods andthe Typhoon Bopha disaster (see Figure .).

Between June and September, severe and widespreadflooding, strong winds, landslides, storm surges and flashfloods displaced over . million people out of an affect-ed population of more than . million people (,families). The impact of torrential and prolonged rainbrought by the south-west monsoon was exacerbated by

Figure 3.3: The Philippines- Monthly scale of new displacement over four years, 2009-2012

September JanuaryJanuary December June December

20102009 2011 2012 2013

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Peopledisplaced(millions

)

TyphoonNesat(Pedring)and Parma

TropicaldepressionAuring

Heavy rainand floods

HurricaneWashi(Sendong)

TyphoonBopha

Floods fromsouthwestmonsoonand typhoons

1.99

1.55

1.10

0.7

0.5

0.4


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Data from and over - reveals clear pat-terns in the distribution of global displacement acrossdifferent continents or macro-regions. While Asia has hadthe highest annual levels of displacement over to compared to other regions, the proportion of globaldisplacement it accounts for has varied, particularly inrelation to displacement in Africa. At the same time theproportion of global displacement in the Europe, Oceaniaand the Americas has been similar for both and over- (see Figure .).

In all regions, displacement levels have fluctuated most

strongly where there have been disasters on a me-ga-scale, affecting Asia and the Americas most often(see Figure .). It should be noted that if slow-onset haz-ards such as drought were included in these estimatesthe level and proportion of displacement in Sub-SaharanAfrica and the Middle East, including some countrieswithin western Asia and northern Africa, would be un-doubtedly much higher.

The largest displacement events of are highlightedbelow within brief overviews of each region. A full list ofall countries affected by disaster-induced displacementin is provided in Annex (see Table A.).

Displacement by geographical region

Asia

In , . million people in countries were displacedby disasters in Asia. This included the five countriesworldwide where the most people were displaced duringthe year (see Figure .) and out of the top largestdisplacement events (see Table .).

Each year the highest number of people displaced bydisasters and the highest proportion of global displace-ment has been in Asia, accounting for per cent of newdisplacement from to . However, displacement

in Asia constituted a significantly lower proportion ofglobal displacement in ( per cent) when comparedto previous years.

2008-20122012

AsiaAmericasAfricaOceaniaEurope

117.3

13.2

12.8

22.21.8

8.2

Oceania 0.2Europe 0.1Oceania 0.3Europe 0.2

Figure 4.1: Global displacement per region, 2012 and 2008-2012

Table 4.1: Asia- Five largest displacement events,2012

Event Displaced

India monsoon floods (1st period) 6,900,000

China Typhoon Haikui floods 2,079,000

India monsoon floods (2nd period) 2,000,000

PhilippinesTyphoon Pablo (Bopha) 1,932,000

Pakistanmonsoon floods 1,857,000


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Oceania

In , Oceania also saw the highest number of peopledisplaced in the region since (over , peoplein countries, compared to , displaced during the

previous year). Over the entire - period, ,people were displaced in the region.

Papua New Guinea, the most populous of the SIDS inthe Pacific, had the highest number of people displaced(,) by several flood and landslide disasters duringthe year.

Over , people were forced from their homes in Fijiby two flood disasters and the impact of Cyclone Evan.Cyclone Evan further displaced over , people in Sa-moa where another , people were forced from their

homes by floods.

Americas

In the Americas, an overall number of . million peoplewere displaced in countries in or five per cent ofthe global total. This was at around the same scale andproportion seen in previous years, with the exception of when . million people were displaced. Disasters in included massive earthquakes in Haiti and Chile anddevastating floods across Colombia and Mexico, eachdisaster displacing between one and two million people.

The largest displacement events of included theimpact of Hurricane Sandy in the USAand Cuba (seeSection c) and flood disasters brought on by heavyrainfall related to the La Nia weather phenomenon inPeru and Colombia.

The USAwas among the ten countries worldwide with thehighest displacement levels in . Months before Hur-ricane Sandy, Hurricane Isaac displaced , peoplein August (see Table .). Widespread forest fires forcedover , people to evacuate their homes. Over - as a whole, however, the top ten countries includedColombia, due to repeated large-scale flood disasters,as well as Chile.

Table 4.3: Americas- Five largest displacementevents, 2012

Event Displaced

USA Hurricane Sandy 776,000Cuba Hurricane Sandy 343,000

PeruLa Nia related flooding 138,000

USAHurricane Isaac 60,000

ColombiaLa Nia related floods 60,000

An old school bus from the USA serves to evacuate the most vulnerable people ahead of Hurricane Sandy in Haiti (Photo: IOM Haiti, October ).


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In addition, over a thousand people were displaced byCyclone Freda and flash floods in the Solomon Islands.Cyclone Freda also displaced hundreds in Vanuatu andTonga.

In recent years Australia has suffered from particularlydevastating floods and at least , people in severalstates were forced to evacuate their homes in . Nomajor disasters were reported in New Zealand, thougha localised tornado displaced people whose homeswere badly damaged or destroyed.

The total numbers displaced in the island nations of thePacific may be small in absolute terms but impacts ofdisasters are often significant relative to the size of thecountrys population. In Samoa and Fiji over three percent of inhabitants were displaced by disasters in .Samoa had the second highest level of displacementworldwide relative to the size of its population (see Table.). Furthermore, displacement by frequent small-scaleevents on hundreds of small islands throughout the regionis under-reported.

Europe

In , around , people were displaced in Europe,as reported in six countries. This was less than . percent of displacement worldwide. During the last five yearsover ,people were displaced.

The largest displacement event was in the South-ern Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation where, homes were destroyed by floods, including ,houses in the worst hit town of Krymsk. An estimated, people were displaced as a result.79Around ,people were evacuated and , sheltered in evacu-ations centres.80While summer floods are common inthe region, little official warning was given to residentsin Krymsk and over people were killed by the floodson July. Four local officials from Krymsk district wereformally charged with corruption and negligence for not

taking measures to prevent or minimise damage due to

Table 4.4: Oceania- Five largest displacementevents, 2012

Event Displaced

Papua New Guinea floods (March) 60,000

Fiji tropical depression/floods 15,000

Australiafloods in eastern states(February and March)

13,000

Papua New Guinea floods andlandslides (January)

11,000

Fiji Tropical Storm Evan 8,400

Table 4.5: Europe- Five largest displacementevents, 2012

Event Displaced

Russian Federation summer floods 26,000

Italy earthquake 11,000

Spain Malaga floods 9,000

Italy earthquake/aftershocks 5,000

Spain/Canary Islands forest fires 5,000

the disaster, including timely and appropriate warningsand evacuations.81

Just over a month later further flash floods in Tuapse, atown on the Black Sea coast, caused additional displace-ment as around , homes were inundated. Due to animproved emergency warning system , people were

evacuated and there were only four reported fatalities.82

In northern Italy, over , people were displaced by adevastating earthquake that struck on May. A further, were displaced by large aftershocks nine days later.Southern Spain and the Canary Islands were also badlyaffected by wildfires that forced around , to flee forsafety, with around , people displaced by flooding inMalaga. Over , people were also displaced by floodsin Bulgaria and in Montenegro, Roma refugees fromKosovo living in temporary camps were rendered home-less by floods. Several hundred people were evacuateddue to floods in the United Kingdom.

Further figures broken down by sub-region and countryfor all continents or macro-regions are provided in Annex. Displacement by economic regions as categorised bythe World Bank can be found in Table ..


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Box 5.1: Disasters and displacement estimates for China in 2012

According to Chinas Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Committee for Disaster Reduction, disasterson the Chinese mainland affected million people across provinces and over , regions and cities in. They inflicted direct economic losses of . billion yuan (. billion) and disproportionately affected

poor regions. Ten typhoons, including four major ones in coastal areas, caused large scale displacement anddamage. Early spring floods and summer floods in southern China, as well as floods in northern China wereparticularly severe (see Top events, Table .). Western China experienced earthquakes of magnitudesabove five on the Richter scale. In addition, there were seven extreme winter weather disasters.99

, houses were destroyed and . million severely damaged by disasters in . Based on an averagehousehold size of ., up to . million people may have been displaced.100This figure might also exclude emer-gency evacuations of people whose homes were not seriously damaged, but who may have suffered otherimpacts, also been taken into account.

In comparison, the IDMCdataset for provides a total figure of approximately . million people displacedby disasters in China in . This figure is based on just seven large, reported disasters , a small proportion of

the total number of actual events during the year, including many on a smaller-scale. The difference betweenthese figures illustrates how under-reporting of smaller disasters and shortcomings in available data meansthat the IDMCfigures are likely to be conservative.

A villager sits in front of his destroyed house after floodwaters receded on July , in Beijing, China. Photo: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFoto-Press via Getty Images


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Table 5.2: Displacement in developing countries and High Income Countries (HICS)*

% of total - % of - total

High-income countries 1,265,000 3.91% 2,485,000 1.73%

Developing countries: 31,092,000 96.09% 141,422,000 98.27%

East Asia and Pacific 10,158,000 31.39% 71,904,000 49.97%

South Asia 11,777,000 36.40% 43,882,000 30.49%

Europe and Central Asia 81,000 0.25% 441,000 0.31%

Middle East and North Africa 52,000 0.16% 118,000 0.08%

Sub-Saharan Africa 8,158,000 25.19% 12,820,000 8.91%

Latin America and the Caribbean 876,000 2.70% 12,255,000 8.52%

* These regional categories, as defined by the World Bank, are composed of middle or lower income countries (developing countries) only.High Income Countries (HICs) are shown as a separate group.

While the number of people displaced in HICs is relativelylow, it is still significant given the distress, vulnerability,instability and economic and social costs it entails fordisplaced families and their governments. The Thokuearthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan inMarch created the highest level of economic dam-age by a disaster on record (estimated at billion).84More than , people were displaced by the disaster,including , forced to leave their homes in the ex-clusion zone around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant,most of who are without solutions to their displacementand continue to live in limbo.85

Higher vulnerability in LDCs and SIDS

The poorest countries worldwide warrant particular at-tention in view of their higher vulnerability and limitedresources to protect displaced people, manage disastersand recover without external assistance. In , over .million people were displaced in states categorised asLeast Developed Countries (LDCs) by the World Bank(. million people over five years). In Africa this includesdisplacement in Chad, Madagascar, Mali, Niger and Su-

dan. In Asia this includes in Afghanistan, Bangladesh,Nepal, Myanmar (Burma) and Yemen.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) also require par-ticular attention as they are characterised in part by theirvulnerability to disasters as low-lying coastal countrieswith small but growing populations, limited resources andfragile environments.86In the SIDS, , people weredisplaced during and almost . million over the lastfive years (see Table .).

Highest per capita displacement in Chadand Haiti

While the highest numbers of people displaced by disastersworldwide are regularly seen in large and densely populatedcountries, particularly in Asia, displacement figures consid-ered as relative to population size reveal a different picture.The figures also reveal that the most vulnerable countriesare more likely to have among the highest per capita levelsof displacement globally (see Figures . and .).

All of the countries where over per cent of the popula-tion was displaced are all developing countries and areLDCs and/or SIDSand/or conflict-affected, with Chadhaving the highest per capita displacement in (seeFigure .). A similar pattern is seen for the -period as a whole, with the exception of Chile- a highlydeveloped country where mass displacement was causedby an extreme earthquake disaster in (see Figure.). Haiti, both a SIDSand a LDC, is clearly the countrythat had the highest proportionate displacement over thisperiod, equivalent to almost per cent of its population.Displacement in Haiti is further discussed in Box ..

In contrast to countries with the highest absolute numbersof people displaced, only two out of the countries withover one per cent of their populations displaced in are from Asia, with the rest from Africa, the Americas andOceania. - data shows a similar pattern again,with just three of the top countries being from Asia.

Pressure on limited local and national resources to respondand recover from disasters is particularly great where asignificant proportion of a countrys population is displacedand where pre-existing vulnerability levels are high. As aresult, the risk of protracted and further displacement can

remain elevated for years following a disaster.


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Figure 5.4: Displacement relative to the size of total population, 2008-2012*

Country % of population displaced

(Number displaced out of average population**)

HDI SIDS LDC Conflict-

affected1 Haiti Low X X

2 Chile Very high

3 Philippines Medium X

4 Pakistan Low X

5 Sri Lanka High X

6 Colombia High X

7 Fiji Medium X

8 Samoa Medium X

9 Benin Low X

10 Namibia Low

11 Chad Low X X

* Countries with over of national population displaced** Average of total population for each year from -

0 5 10 15 20

1.9 out of 10.1 million



15 out of 180 million



60 out of 900 thousand





Figure 5.3: Displacement relative to the size of total population, 2012*

Country % of population displaced(Number displaced out of total population)

HDI SIDS LDC Conflict-affected

1 Chad Low X X

2 Philippines Medium X

3 Samoa Medium X X

4 Nigeria Low X

5 Niger Low X X

6 South Sudan (Low) X X

7 Cuba High X

8 Fiji Medium X

9 Comoros Low X X

10 Madagascar Low X

11 Papua New Guinea Low X

12 Pakistan Low X

* These regional categories, as defined by the World Bank, are composed of middle or lower income countries (developing countries) only.High Income Countries (HICs) are shown as a separate group.











75 thousand out of 7.2 million

1.9 out of 180 million

0 1 2 3 4


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any particular type of disaster. However, the increasing

frequency and intensity of climate and weather hazards inthe longer term due to human-made climate change areexpected to play a part in increasing the risk of disasterand of displacement, as previously discussed in Section (see Box .).

Modelling the risk of displacementassociated with rapid-onset hazards

Probabilistic risk modelling has been used in the insur-ance and reinsurance industry as a way to quantify risk.The models are usually used to calculate how much is atrisk in terms of assets, human lives or Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). Risk models can be used to produceoutputs such as Average Annual Losses (AAL) and Prob-able Maximum Loss (PML) for given periods of time (alsoknown as return periods). These metrics are usually plot-

ted on a loss exceedance curve, with the area under the

62.4%20.2%

16.7%

0.7%

GeophysicalClimatologicalMeteorologicalHydrological

68.2%

0.2%2.1%

29.6%

Figure 6.2: Proportion of displacement by category of hazard, 2012 and 2008-2012

Table 6.1: Displacement by type of relatedhazard, 2012 and 2008-2012

Total displaced

Type of hazard -

Flood 22,010,000 89,181,000

Storm 9,5667,000 29,051,000Earthquake(Seismic activity)

637,000 23,604,000

Extreme Cold 2,000 923,000

Landslide (wet) 47,000 577,000

Volcano 40,000 472,000

Wildfire 59,000 103,000

Landslide (dry) 200 3,200

Extreme Heat 1,700 1,700

*Source: IOM Haiti, Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), December

curve expressing how much (e.g. GDP, number of lives,

etc.) is at risk.

In the situation of a rapid-onset hazard, such as a flood,storm, earthquake or wildfire, the damage and destructionof housing is a direct cause of displacement as homesare rendered uninhabitable and people are forced toseek shelter and safety elsewhere. By multiplying aver-age household size by the number of houses damagedand destroyed as a result of past disaster events, onecan begin to construct displacement risk curves (Figure.). These illustrate how many people are likely to bedisplaced over a given period of time and the maximumnumber of people likely to be displaced by a single dis-aster during it.

Figure 6.3: Displacement risk in Colombia

Source: Direccin de Gestion de Riesgos (DGR)- Corporacin OSSO

This model of displacement risk is justified for contexts inwhich houses damaged and destroyed are a reasonableproxy for displacement, though not for people who aredisplaced by droughts or in the rare cases when peopleare displaced by floods which destroy crops and livestockbut leave their homes undamaged. Using geospatially ref-erenced records stored in existing national disaster loss

databases, partial displacement risk curves can already

Number of people displaced per eventNum

beroftimesdisplaced/year

505 500 5,000 50,000 500,0000.1

1

10

100


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be produced for nearly countries, often at the provin-cial and local level. A complete, or hybrid, displacementrisk curve would also need to incorporate the modelledrisk of displacement associated with extreme disastersthat cause unusually high levels of destruction.

Displacement in the form of flight or emergency evacu-ations to avoid imminent and further danger should alsobe considered, as should displacement related to thedestruction or disruption of critical infrastructure andaccess to basic needs and services in the home area.Displacement risk curves require careful calibration dueto the observed discrepancies between the numberof houses reportedly damaged and destroyed and thenumber of people reported as displaced.96Using moreprecise household size data alone does not eliminatethe discrepancies. Therefore, additional proxy indicatorsand verification is required to calibrate the models and

produce accurate displacement risk curves.

Slow-onset hazards, such as drought or gradual changesin environmental conditions such as desertification andsea-level rise, also cause displacement through loss ofhabitat and livelihoods. However, to identify and quantifydisplacement related to such hazards requires a differentmethodology to that used for rapid-onset disasters, asexplained below.

Building and applying knowledge aboutdrought-induced displacement

IDMC and others have shown that displacement related tohazards such as floods and earthquakes can be identifiedand measured. Its causes are relatively straight forward:if someones home or other critical assets have been de-stroyed, or face an acute threat of severe damage, they arelikely to be displaced. In disasters associated with theseand other rapid-onset hazards, governments, NGOs andthe private sector are able to record impacts such as homesdamaged and destroyed and the people evacuated and/orbeing assisted inside and outside emergency shelter sites.

Identifying and measuring displacement associated withdrought and other slow onset hazards is more challeng-ing, however, as the different factors that result in dis-placement are highly complex. Droughts do not typicallydestroy homes or trigger the sudden need to flee. Instead,they lead to displacement indirectly, by eroding natural,physical, financial and social capital and precipitatinglivelihoods crises for the vulnerable. Disaggregatingdrought-related displacement from voluntary migrationposes additional challenges. As an important first stepto prevent disaster-induced displacement by slow as wellas rapid onset disasters, or to reduce their impacts and

duration, IDMCis developing new research.

IDMCis currently collaborating with the NGOClimateInteractive (CI)97to create a system dynamics model ofdrought-induced displacement of pastoralists in the Hornof Africa (see Figure .). The model will account for, andestimate, the number of people displaced by droughtsand test ways to prevent or mitigate displacement and

other drought impacts under scenarios of climate uncer-tainty. Working with partner organisations and experts,IDMCand CIhave mapped causal relationships betweendrought and livelihoods. We have begun to build a formalmathematical model of the phenomena using empiricalevidence and scientific methods.

The model captures some of the key drivers of drought-in-duced displacement (e.g., rainfall, pasture quality, acces-sible grazing land, livestock numbers, type of livestock,grain stores and decisions about when to sell and pur-chase livestock and livestock products). It also reports

the amount and rate of displacement under differentscenarios.Thus, it provides a basis for estimating dis-placement and a quick, transparent and interactive wayfor communities and policymakers to test drought pre-vention and preparedness strategies.

System dynamics models such as this may also sup-port stronger links between humanitarian interventionsand development plans. Facing the prospect of a severedrought, how much should governments and humanitar-ian and development actors invest in food assistance,livelihood support, childhood nutrition and education?

While each of these interventions may yield positive re-sults in preventing displacement, they do so over differenttime periods. The model can be used to test which combi-nations of interventions reinforce each other the most. Itcan also inform policy and plans by developing scenariosthat mitigate the impacts of displacement (in situationswhere prevention is unfeasible), maximise long-termwellbeing and resilience and test which combinationsof interventions work best over different time horizons.

IDMCs drought-induced displacement model containssome uncertainty and room for improvement. It could be

further refined to account for the differential distributionof herds across households as well as the number oflivestock imported into the region, for example. It is clear,however, that this model can illustrate th

Global Disaster Human Displacement Estimates 2012 May2013

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